Little change to Caribbean disturbance 94L

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:10 PM GMT on November 13, 2010

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An area of disturbed weather (Invest 94L) in the southern Caribbean off the coast of Colombia has changed little this morning, but has the potential to develop into a tropical depression on Monday or Tuesday. Satellite images show that 94L has a limited amount of heavy thunderstorms, but the activity is showing signs of organization, with several curved bands trying to form, and a bit of upper-level outflow to the north and west. Water vapor satellite images show a large amount of dry air lies to the north over the northern Caribbean, and this dry air may be slowing development. SSTs are warm, 29°C, and wind shear as analyzed by the University of Wisconsin CIMSS group is a moderate 10 - 15 knots. An ASCAT pass from last night showed 94L had a nearly complete surface circulation, but there is no sign of a closed circulation on satellite imagery this morning.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 94L.

Forecast for 94L
The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear will remain in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, through Monday morning, then rise to the high range, 20 - 25 knots, Tuesday through Thursday next week. The modest shear, warm SSTs, and relatively moist atmosphere should allow for some slow organization of 94L through Monday. The models predict that the steering currents in the southern Caribbean will keep 94L moving generally west-northwestward at about 5 mph for the next five days, which would bring the storm ashore over Nicaragua or northeast Honduras as early as Tuesday night. Both the GFS and NOGAPS models show some modest development of 94L, and NHC is giving the system a 40% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to investigate 94L on Monday afternoon. At this time, it appears that 94L will stay confined to the Caribbean, and will not by drawn northwards across Cuba towards Florida and the Bahamas.

I'll have an update Sunday by noon EST.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting scott39:
Ok, Hold on a minute I wasnt impersonating anyone. Some one had made a joke earlier about me being part of Admin, because when I joined and how many comments were missing. I pretty sure nobody really thought I was part of Admn. Ive been posting on here for 2 years.
I just saw your Edit
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
205. JLPR2
Quoting tornadodude:


really?


Of course not, it cant be that simple...

XD
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Orcasystems:


You must have been a very bad person.
That's 504 and 2/3 days. Not even NRAmy has had one like that. I know cause I'd have forgotten her name by then...
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12463
Quoting DontAnnoyMe:


He's not banned if he's posting...


really?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting DontAnnoyMe:


One could get banned for impersonating admin. Just sayin'...
Ok, Hold on a minute I wasnt impersonating anyone. Some one had made a joke earlier about me being part of Admin, because when I joined and how many comments were missing. I pretty sure nobody really thought I was part of Admn. Ive been posting on here for 2 years.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting sunlinepr:


Well, that for sure is a bug... A while ago OrcaSystems invited to watch his update page... I took a look and clicked Levi's link there....
Suddenly the next page said something like You have been Banned for the next XXXX hours....
I went back and everything was OK.... So there are some glitches in the blog...


That happened to one of the kids the other day too. Where's an admin when you need one.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Orcasystems:


You must have been a very bad person.
Quoting sunlinepr:


Well, that for sure is a bug... A while ago OrcaSystems invited to watch his update page... I took a look and clicked Levi's link there....
Suddenly the next page said something like You have been Banned for the next XXXX hours....
I went back and everything was OK.... So there are some glitches in the blog...

Me thinks there's a little construction going on around here...
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12463
199. JLPR2
Quoting tornadodude:


how you doing? Lol



Everything is pretty good. :D
How about over there?

Seems like a clear night for me:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Well, I see that while I wrote my Glitch comment Atmoaggie had the same problem.....
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9874
Quoting Orcasystems:


You must have been a very bad person.


He's not banned if he's posting...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting scott39:
I was just messing around on my posts tonight. Someone earlier had joked around about me being part of Admin and i thought that i would play along with that stirring of the pot. I have no idea why im in the twilight zone. My filter is stuck on just show average and Ive tried everything I know to fix it. I hope Admin can fix it.


Well, that for sure is a bug... A while ago OrcaSystems invited to watch his update page... I took a look and clicked Levi's link there....
Suddenly the next page said something like You have been Banned for the next XXXX hours....
I went back and everything was OK.... So there are some glitches in the blog...
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9874
Quoting scott39:
With great power comes greater responsibility!


One could get banned for impersonating admin. Just sayin'...

edit: OK, you're cool. Have you tried clearing your cache, cookies, and history?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting JLPR2:


Howdy, aloha! xD


how you doing? Lol

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting atmoaggie:
Speaking of admin...

Just a moment ago I came in here and saw:

"This blog's author or an administrator has banned you from this Wunder Blog. The ban is in effect for the next 12112 hours.

WunderBlogAdmin has left you a message related to this ban: Please do not post off-topic images in Dr. Masters' blog."

That's a long ban...


You must have been a very bad person.
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
Quoting atmoaggie:
Hmm, another, more possible thought. If he joined on a leap day, would the programming reject a Feb 29 and skip printing it? Maybe.


He joined on June 12. See post 110. It's obviously a bug in the WU system.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Speaking of admin...

Just a moment ago I came in here and saw:

"This blog's author or an administrator has banned you from this Wunder Blog. The ban is in effect for the next 12112 hours.

WunderBlogAdmin has left you a message related to this ban: Please do not post off-topic images in Dr. Masters' blog."

That's a long ban...
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12463
190. JLPR2
Quoting tornadodude:
howdy everyone


Howdy, aloha! xD
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
howdy everyone
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting JLPR2:


Yeah, Alice in Wonderland is more real than that. XD LOL!


The margin of error cone covers planet earth...
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9874
Quoting sunlinepr:


We'll I'm asking you with respect, -Scott; why, when you post, there is no Member since, # posts, or comments????.... maybe there is a bug with your pc, or the way your OS or IP address interacts with the blog....
Anyhow, someone with authority in Dr. JMasters blog, can fix that bug....
I was just messing around on my posts tonight. Someone earlier had joked around about me being part of Admin and i thought that i would play along with that stirring of the pot. I have no idea why im in the twilight zone. My filter is stuck on just show average and Ive tried everything I know to fix it. I hope Admin can fix it.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
186. JLPR2
Quoting sunlinepr:


Well, that will be 16 days from now....

Dec 1st...


Yeah, Alice in Wonderland is more real than that. XD LOL!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting scott39:
With great power comes greater responsibility!


Keep on doing that good responsible job!!!
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9874
Quoting JLPR2:


If it were up to the GFS PR wouldnt exist. XD


Well, that will be 16 days from now....

Dec 1st...
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9874
94L is just about stationary.
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Quoting JLPR2:


I went and checked and it's to our south at 384hrs, moving NW


Yap, I checked too...

Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9874
181. JLPR2
Quoting sunlinepr:


Checked Cyclogen and other Model pages and I can't find that...
Do you have the link???



I went and checked and it's to our south at 384hrs, moving NW
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting JLPR2:


Everyone is siding with him, I'll say Margarito just to be a rebel and differ from everyone's opinions. XD LOL!
He's a big dude but still Pac in 5.
Member Since: October 28, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 65
Quoting Jeff9641:


Every model you need is right here! Look at GFS model then click Caribbean for location.

http://www.dejongonline.com/weather/weathermodel.htm


Thanks for that...
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9874
Quoting sunlinepr:


We'll I'm asking you with respect, -Scott; why, when you post, there is no Member since, # posts, or comments????.... maybe there is a bug with your pc, or the way your OS or IP address interacts with the blog....
Anyhow, someone with authority in Dr. JMasters blog, can fix that bug....
With great power comes greater responsibility!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting JLPR2:


If it were up to the GFS PR wouldnt exist. XD


Checked Cyclogen and other Model pages and I can't find that...
Do you have the link???

Quoting Jeff9641:
GFS developes and long range Tropical storm and sends it to PR.
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9874
174. JLPR2
Quoting Jeff9641:
GFS developes and long range Tropical storm and sends it to PR.


If it were up to the GFS PR wouldnt exist. XD
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
172. JLPR2
.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
171. JLPR2
Quoting outlookchkr:
Also I predict - Pacquiao in 5


Everyone is siding with him, I'll say Margarito just to be a rebel and differ from everyone's opinions. XD LOL!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9874
167. JLPR2
That huge Low in the Bermuda area is impressive but it is far away from being tropical.


Also hey everyone! Been out all day. :D
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94L is building some convection around the COC to the NE.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting atmoaggie:
Ehh, Firefox in Ubuntu is still Firefox...
(I use it all the time)


Do you think Ubuntu is the best Linux Distro?? They tell me so.... One of these days I'm going to try it on another PC I have....
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9874
News on Yahoo
Snowstorm causes 400 Minn. crashes; 2 die in Wis.

Saturday, Nov. …
By DINESH RAMDE, Associated Press Dinesh Ramde, Associated Press – 42 mins ago

Parts of the Upper Midwest dug out from a heavy snowfall Saturday that caused more than 400 traffic accidents in Minnesota, and wintry conditions also were being blamed for a collision in northern Wisconsin that killed two people.

Nearly a foot of snow had fallen in parts of the Twin Cities area by Saturday evening, downing trees and causing sporadic power outages.
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9874
Im back
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting sunlinepr:


That for sure would happen; but what about the # of posts and comments??? It can be a bug on the system... Don't know how Linux interacts with the blog, or how many here are on Linux (Ubuntu or whatever Distro)... It can be any of the above and many other posibilities....
Ehh, Firefox in Ubuntu is still Firefox...
(I use it all the time)
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12463
Quoting atmoaggie:
Hmm, another, more possible thought. If he joined on a leap day, would the programming reject a Feb 29 and skip printing it? Maybe.


That for sure would happen; but what about the # of posts and comments??? It can be a bug on the system... Don't know how Linux interacts with the blog, or how many here are on Linux (Ubuntu or whatever Distro)... It can be any of the above and many other posibilities....
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9874
..there in Lies da mystery of Faith and the blog.

Could he be, the "one" ?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting sunlinepr:


Well, thanks for that; New for me....
Hmm, another, more possible thought. If he joined on a leap day, would the programming reject a Feb 29 and skip printing it? Maybe.
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12463
Quoting DontAnnoyMe:


System happens, ya know.



I'm heading to bed, my friend. It's been fun. I hope you have a great night. Catch ya on the 'morrow.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting atmoaggie:
Scott has been a member since the beginning of time. Thus, the format statement for the "Member Since" cannot handle his join date...
:P


Well, thanks for that; New for me....
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9874

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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