Little change to Caribbean disturbance 94L

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:10 PM GMT on November 13, 2010

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An area of disturbed weather (Invest 94L) in the southern Caribbean off the coast of Colombia has changed little this morning, but has the potential to develop into a tropical depression on Monday or Tuesday. Satellite images show that 94L has a limited amount of heavy thunderstorms, but the activity is showing signs of organization, with several curved bands trying to form, and a bit of upper-level outflow to the north and west. Water vapor satellite images show a large amount of dry air lies to the north over the northern Caribbean, and this dry air may be slowing development. SSTs are warm, 29°C, and wind shear as analyzed by the University of Wisconsin CIMSS group is a moderate 10 - 15 knots. An ASCAT pass from last night showed 94L had a nearly complete surface circulation, but there is no sign of a closed circulation on satellite imagery this morning.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 94L.

Forecast for 94L
The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear will remain in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, through Monday morning, then rise to the high range, 20 - 25 knots, Tuesday through Thursday next week. The modest shear, warm SSTs, and relatively moist atmosphere should allow for some slow organization of 94L through Monday. The models predict that the steering currents in the southern Caribbean will keep 94L moving generally west-northwestward at about 5 mph for the next five days, which would bring the storm ashore over Nicaragua or northeast Honduras as early as Tuesday night. Both the GFS and NOGAPS models show some modest development of 94L, and NHC is giving the system a 40% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to investigate 94L on Monday afternoon. At this time, it appears that 94L will stay confined to the Caribbean, and will not by drawn northwards across Cuba towards Florida and the Bahamas.

I'll have an update Sunday by noon EST.

Jeff Masters

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256. IKE
NEW BLOG!
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Wife isn't too pleased about lack of sunshine thus far...
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Quoting stoormfury:
late season tropical wave approaching the lesser antilles. classical inverted v shape wave ,with its axis at 47W south of 15N, moving west. fairly looking active wave this time of year
Quite a bit of moisture associated with it too....
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late season tropical wave approaching the lesser antilles. classical inverted v shape wave ,with its axis at 47W south of 15N, moving west. fairly looking active wave this time of year
Member Since: August 22, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2678
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
I watched it on tv too. Can't bother with the crowds anymore. NS and BT floats looked real good this year. Nice weather we are having lately. Had a nice rain up here this morning.
Good morning.... The NCEP spins up a storm in the Eastern Caribbean Sea..Link And the NAM is taking invest94L over the Cayman Islands in a couple of days..Link
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I wonder how long that will last stormwatcherCI I got this feeling that 94L will be a Paloma type storm
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Credit: http://www.wetteronline.de/wotexte/redaktion/topthemen/2010/11/1114_rb.htm

"Carmen" brought high amounts of rain to some regions in Germany (pic shows the data of Saturday), and it's still raining today till tomorrow in the same regions. Winds had not been a real problem in Germany.
Greetings from Germany (in my town it has been a sunny Sunday so far), Barbara.



Link
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:
na stormwatcherCI I see it every year but I did see it on TV, boy I tell ya it was a little diffrent from the ones before. but anyway what about you
I watched it on tv too. Can't bother with the crowds anymore. NS and BT floats looked real good this year. Nice weather we are having lately. Had a nice rain up here this morning.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8364
and no I am not that happy
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na stormwatcherCI I see it every year but I did see it on TV, boy I tell ya it was a little diffrent from the ones before. but anyway what about you
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:
gooooooooood morning everyone!
Good morning. Why are you so happy ? Did you go to the landing ?
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8364
gooooooooood morning everyone!
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Quoting TomTaylor:
What ever happened to StormW?


http://stormw.wordpress.com/
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Quoting aislinnpaps:
Good morning. Almost Thanksgiving and 94L hanging around down south...
Good morning. Looks stationary around 79W and 11.5N.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8364
Good morning. Almost Thanksgiving and 94L hanging around down south...
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Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11151
Stuck under that blob of convection way to the east. Been rainin all morning here.
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700 AM EST SUN NOV 14 2010
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT ...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11151
Ummm go Dolphins....!!! and thank god the season on our little half/quarter of the world is over!! By the way I had a cocktail.. not 2 ..tonight
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Complete Update






TSPIN BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
236. JLPR2
Well time for bed, night all!
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Quoting KerryInNOLA:
Last year users were having all kinds of problems. Admit tried all sorts of fixes. They apologized but could never say for sure if it was a hacker or virus or trojan or what. I know my firewall was going off a lot.


Yikes. I think if it were a hacker they'd know that for sure. Assuming they have appropriate security set, it sounds like a bug in the system to me.
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Quoting DontAnnoyMe:


Again? It's happened before?
Hack for what reason?
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Quoting KerryInNOLA:
2 days ago I got the banned for so many thousand hours. It came to over 500 days! All of the 2011 season and then some. It went away after I signed out. I think someone is hacking the site again.


Again? It's happened before?
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But I was off a bit, about the 200 miles at day 5 of an NHC track.
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Quoting KrippleCreekFerry:
Speaking of the filter, who decides what each poster is? How do I find out what I am. I hope I'm not annoying anyone. This is new to me.


I never use flags. You'll only know if your posts are bad; enough minuses and it's subject to being deleted by admin. I think. People use it as a weapon.
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Quoting sunlinepr:


I don't have any on Ignore...


Well tonight's bloggin has shown all kind of glitches.... Maybe tomorrow will be better.... GNite all and thanks
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9814
Quoting sunlinepr:


I don't have any on Ignore...
Then I lose...
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Quoting atmoaggie:
I'll wager that one has the other ignored...resulting in skipped post number.


I don't have any on Ignore...
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9814
Quoting DontAnnoyMe:


It's there. Try logging out, clearing browser, log back in.


I did so, and it's OK.... Though sometimes I get a Big letters view of the blog
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9814
Quoting DontAnnoyMe:


It's there. Try logging out, clearing browser, log back in.
I'll wager that one has the other ignored...resulting in skipped post number.
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Quoting sunlinepr:


Hey, where's post 217??

I can't see any.... Something weird in here!!! Are we being Hacked???


It's there. Try logging out, clearing browser, log back in.
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221. JLPR2
Well there goes my rebellious self. LOL!
Pacquiao won.
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Quoting KerryInNOLA:
Change filter to desired setting. Then log off and then log on. If that fails reboot before logon.


He said he can't change the filter...
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..
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9814
Quoting scott39:
My filter is stuck on just show average and Ive tried everything I know to fix it.


Same deal on a different browser? If so, it's not likely to be a problem on your end.
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Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9814
Quoting tornadodude:


haha no offense intended btw!


None taken!
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Quoting DontAnnoyMe:


Tx, I didn't catch it. Y'all write too fast LOL


haha no offense intended btw!
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Quoting atmoaggie:
Of course not.....
He was making a captian obvious comment.


Tx, I didn't catch it. Y'all write too fast LOL
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Quoting atmoaggie:
Of course not.....
He was making a captian obvious comment.


there you go atmo, just had to rat me out :P lol
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Quoting DontAnnoyMe:


Not with the same handle that was supposedly just banned.
Of course not.....
He was making a captian obvious comment.
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Quoting scott39:
Ok, Hold on a minute I wasnt impersonating anyone. Some one had made a joke earlier about me being part of Admin, because when I joined and how many comments were missing. I pretty sure nobody really thought I was part of Admn. Ive been posting on here for 2 years.


Don't worry about any of those comments; it has been proved that the Blog has Bug problems and glitches while navigating.... Something that I've noticed is that everyday when my Spyware terminator checks my PC, I have tracking cookies in it.... maybe from the blog...
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9814
Quoting tornadodude:


really?


Not with the same handle that was supposedly just banned.
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Quoting JLPR2:


Of course not, it cant be that simple...

XD


haha for sure man!
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Quoting scott39:
Ok, Hold on a minute I wasnt impersonating anyone. Some one had made a joke earlier about me being part of Admin, because when I joined and how many comments were missing. I pretty sure nobody really thought I was part of Admn. Ive been posting on here for 2 years.


Yeah, sorry - see #195. I had edited it after I saw your #187.
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Quoting scott39:
Ok, Hold on a minute I wasnt impersonating anyone. Some one had made a joke earlier about me being part of Admin, because when I joined and how many comments were missing. I pretty sure nobody really thought I was part of Admn. Ive been posting on here for 2 years.
I just saw your Edit
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.