Caribbean disturbance 94L may develop early next week

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 8:11 PM GMT on November 12, 2010

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An area of disturbed weather (Invest 94L) has developed in the southern Caribbean off the coast of Colombia, and has the potential to develop into a tropical depression early next week. Satellite images show that 94L has a limited amount of heavy thunderstorms, but the activity is showing signs of organization, with several curved bands developing on the west side of 94L's center. Water vapor satellite images show a large amount of dry air lies to the north over the northern Caribbean, and this dry air may slow down development to a small degree. SSTs are warm, 29°C, and wind shear as analyzed by the University of Wisconsin CIMSS group is a moderate 10 - 15 knots.


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of 94L.

Forecast for 94L
The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear will remain in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, through Sunday, then rise to the high range, 20 - 30 knots, Monday through Wednesday next week. The modest shear, warm SSTs, and relatively moist atmosphere should allow for some slow organization of 94L as it moves slowly westwards at 5 mph over the next two days. The models predict that the steering currents in the southern Caribbean will keep 94L moving generally westwards at about 5 mph for the next five days, which would bring the storm ashore over Nicaragua or northeast Honduras on Wednesday. Both the GFS and NOGAPS models show some modest development of 94L, and NHC is giving the system a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to investigate 94L on Monday afternoon. At this time, it appears that 94L will only be a concern for Central America. I give 94L a 50% chance of eventually becoming Tropical Storm Virginie.

I'll have an update Saturday by 1pm EDT.

Jeff Masters

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Complete Update






TSPIN BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
Quoting BahaHurican:
Boujour, M. Poulard! It is very good to see you here again. I agree that once is enough for Haiti...


I just see the BAMS Model project a path to Haiti... I'm not so surprise that will can append because this late storm have a "retrograde" path.... and re curve to the NE at the caribean sea. Hope nothing like that will happen. I will continue to monitor the progress of this low and see if some thing going to happen and give the early alert as I did for Tomas.

By the way... I think the NHC make a good job this on track the storm... Tomas was the more difficult one but with a accuracy of 120 to 150 mile, that's almost a perfect prediction... this prediction help to serve hundred... may be thousand of life here in Haiti.
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Quoting jcpoulard:


No way to be Haiti again ! We can't afford that any more, I think 2010 give us enough misery.
Boujour, M. Poulard! It is very good to see you here again. I agree that once is enough for Haiti...
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Quoting belizeit:


No way to be Haiti again ! We can't afford that any more, I think 2010 give us enough misery.
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I thought Tomas' eye also hit St Vincent.... so it actually passed through St. Vincent Passage w/out touching land on either side?

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Quoting KerryInNOLA:
You're the 2nd one to predict a possible South Atlantic storm. That would be very interesting.
i beleive one day we will actually have two new basins added to the atlantic and they would be the south atlantic basin from jan till april and the med basin from july too sept
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54499
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54499
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
94L showing signs of organization...



I give 94L a 60% chance of becoming Tropical Storm Virginie, or higher.
-

Meanwhile, behind this Cold Front and line of thunderstorms here in North Texas, boy is it getting cold!

Winds are sustained in the 20-25 mph range, with gusts sometimes up to Tropical Depression/Storm force.

You live in Texas? Wow I can't believe I took this long to figure that out.
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5690
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Tomas made landfall on Barbados as a 70 mph TS


I knew I was right! lol
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5690
Quoting Jeff9641:


Wait till next year as models are showing Neutral conditions by July trending to a very weak El-nino come next winter. Neutral conditions are very dangerous as this eludes to many US landfalls. Strong La Nina like this year favor C.A. & Mexico.

2011
18 to 20 storms
10 to 13 hurricanes
6 to 8 majors
1 to 3 cat 5's

7 US landfalls total



We went through this last night :P

Models are predicting a mostly La Nina, transitioning to Neutral for September and onwards. Follow the thick yellow line.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32292
Tomas made landfall on Barbados as a 70 mph TS

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32292


still image of rare south atlantic basin storm
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54499
94L showing signs of organization...



I give 94L a 60% chance of becoming Tropical Storm Virginie, or higher.
-

Meanwhile, behind this Cold Front and line of thunderstorms here in North Texas, boy is it getting cold!

Winds are sustained in the 20-25 mph range, with gusts sometimes up to Tropical Depression/Storm force.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32292
Quoting CybrTeddy:


I know that Tomas hit one of the islands directly, don't know which one though. St. Lucia was the one that recorded the 90 mph winds while Tomas was strengthening.

Barbados was the landfall island.
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5690
When did the NHC decide to stop renaming storms if they switched basins so like Joan-Miriam, Cesar-Douglas, et cetera.
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to be honest i would not be surprized to see a early dec out of season storm who knows maybe even one of those rare south atlantic storms off south america
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54499
Quoting DoverWxwatchter:


Did Tomas's eye hit St. Lucia or not?


I know that Tomas hit one of the islands directly, don't know which one though. St. Lucia was the one that recorded the 90 mph winds while Tomas was strengthening.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24200
Quoting DoverWxwatchter:


Did Tomas's eye hit St. Lucia or not?

He made landfall at Barbados and the Turks and Caicos. His eyewall grazed the island, but just a direct hit, no landfall.
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5690
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Fiona didn't make landfall.


Ah your right it didn't. Prompted TS warnings in the islands though.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24200
Quoting CybrTeddy:
FWIW. While there has not been a 'Landfalling' US hurricane this year, Earl made a Direct hit on the Outer banks.

Still, we shouldn't mainly focus on how the US wasn't hit this year. Somehow the news finds it right to do that though. How about the fact out of the 19 storms we have had this year.. 12 of them made a landfall? Alex, Bonnie, Earl, Fiona, Hermine, Igor, Karl, Matthew, Nicole, Paula, Richard, and Tomas.


Fiona didn't make landfall.
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5690
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11287
FWIW. While there has not been a 'Landfalling' US hurricane this year, Earl made a Direct hit on the Outer banks.

Still, we shouldn't mainly focus on how the US wasn't hit this year. Somehow the news finds it right to do that though. How about the fact out of the 19 storms we have had this year.. 12 of them made a landfall? Alex, Bonnie, Earl, Fiona, Hermine, Igor, Karl, Matthew, Nicole, Paula, Richard, and Tomas.

Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24200
Afternoon everybody. Is this AOI the Twave we were watching earlier this week? I lost track of things since Monday / Tuesday....
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SEASONAL FORECAST MADE IN APRIL 2010

KEEPEROFTHEGATE 23 TOTAL,14 HURRICANES,7 MAJORS,3 CAT FIVES
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54499
Quoting DoverWxwatchter:
We need 10 named storms starting before the end of December to break the 2005 record. I'm pretty sure that won't happen.
I should have thrown the Sarcasm Flag up.
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
we are not finished yet
True, But I would say the odds are against it at this point. But you never know with mother Nature.
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I say we go ahead and try to break the 2005 record!
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Quoting scott39:
And still amazing to me that not one hurricane hit the USA Conus!
we are not finished yet
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54499
we are at 22 including depressions or non named systems if we get v and then w it will make 24
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54499
If 94L becomes Virginie we'd still be 3rd place, but we'd break the named storm tie with 1995 and 1887.

Still, its pretty extreme that 2 of the top 3 most active hurricane seasons have happened in the last 5 years.

Its possible that 2010 will end up with a final toll of 21-13-5. I think Walter will form at the very end of this month.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24200
Quoting DoverWxwatchter:


No. It will be third, behind the 21 of 1933.
And still amazing to me that not one hurricane hit the USA Conus!
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Quoting FtMyersgal:
That stopped being funny about 2 months ago Scott
Ok...
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If the 2010 season kicks out #20, will it be second to 2005?
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That stopped being funny about 2 months ago Scott
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
well if you look at surface map i posted for 72 hr mark shows a cold front swing down into GOM that may become an important player also that said front should move down to yuc in a line ne ward up over fla but stall and become occulted so we have to watch a few things to be sure after the next 24 we will know more
maybe I LOL about FL. too soon!
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255

WHXX01 KWBC 121813

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

1813 UTC FRI NOV 12 2010



DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.



ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL942010) 20101112 1800 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

101112 1800 101113 0600 101113 1800 101114 0600



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 11.1N 76.2W 10.9N 77.0W 10.5N 77.9W 10.3N 78.2W

BAMD 11.1N 76.2W 11.1N 77.3W 11.0N 78.5W 10.8N 79.9W

BAMM 11.1N 76.2W 10.9N 77.3W 10.4N 78.3W 9.9N 79.2W

LBAR 11.1N 76.2W 11.4N 77.0W 12.3N 77.5W 13.7N 77.5W

SHIP 20KTS 26KTS 35KTS 45KTS

DSHP 20KTS 26KTS 35KTS 45KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

101114 1800 101115 1800 101116 1800 101117 1800



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 10.3N 78.3W 11.6N 78.3W 14.6N 79.1W 17.2N 81.1W

BAMD 10.6N 81.4W 10.1N 84.6W 9.9N 87.9W 10.2N 92.2W

BAMM 9.5N 79.9W 9.4N 80.9W 10.7N 82.0W 12.2N 83.5W

LBAR 15.2N 76.8W 18.4N 73.4W 21.5N 70.8W 24.5N 69.7W

SHIP 56KTS 69KTS 69KTS 66KTS

DSHP 56KTS 69KTS 69KTS 66KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 11.1N LONCUR = 76.2W DIRCUR = 265DEG SPDCUR = 4KT

LATM12 = 11.2N LONM12 = 75.4W DIRM12 = 263DEG SPDM12 = 4KT

LATM24 = 11.3N LONM24 = 74.5W

WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 20KT

CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = S

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



$$

NNNN


Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54499
Quoting scott39:
Do you think 94 will barely go over Honduras or go N of it?
well if you look at surface map i posted for 72 hr mark shows a cold front swing down into GOM that may become an important player also that said front should move down to yuc in a line ne ward up over fla but stall and become occulted so we have to watch a few things to be sure after the next 24 we will know more
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54499
Quoting belizeit:

Gee, those models are definitely agreed XD.
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5690
Quoting scott39:
Do you think 94 will barely go over Honduras or go N of it?
Or go to the West Coast of Fl. LOL
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Very rough surf off of DBS today and a lot the waves are breaking far from shore. Supposed to be even rougher tomorrow thanks to the low in the Atlantic.
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Quoting RMM34667:
No, no, no, no, no!!!! I realize mid November is still technically Hurricane Season. But usually it is a pretty safe to book your cruise at this time!!

Already booked! Will be admiring the Hurricane- stricken islands and all the damage leftover while basking in the sun drinking a Pina colada while wearing shades! AH ha ha ha ha.
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
94 becomes quasi stationary near 80 w by 72 hrs expect models to change and become better establish as to a more likly track by then

things can and will change
Do you think 94 will barely go over Honduras or go N of it?
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.