Caribbean disturbance 94L may develop early next week

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 8:11 PM GMT on November 12, 2010

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An area of disturbed weather (Invest 94L) has developed in the southern Caribbean off the coast of Colombia, and has the potential to develop into a tropical depression early next week. Satellite images show that 94L has a limited amount of heavy thunderstorms, but the activity is showing signs of organization, with several curved bands developing on the west side of 94L's center. Water vapor satellite images show a large amount of dry air lies to the north over the northern Caribbean, and this dry air may slow down development to a small degree. SSTs are warm, 29°C, and wind shear as analyzed by the University of Wisconsin CIMSS group is a moderate 10 - 15 knots.


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of 94L.

Forecast for 94L
The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear will remain in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, through Sunday, then rise to the high range, 20 - 30 knots, Monday through Wednesday next week. The modest shear, warm SSTs, and relatively moist atmosphere should allow for some slow organization of 94L as it moves slowly westwards at 5 mph over the next two days. The models predict that the steering currents in the southern Caribbean will keep 94L moving generally westwards at about 5 mph for the next five days, which would bring the storm ashore over Nicaragua or northeast Honduras on Wednesday. Both the GFS and NOGAPS models show some modest development of 94L, and NHC is giving the system a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to investigate 94L on Monday afternoon. At this time, it appears that 94L will only be a concern for Central America. I give 94L a 50% chance of eventually becoming Tropical Storm Virginie.

I'll have an update Saturday by 1pm EDT.

Jeff Masters

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121. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
4:07 AM GMT on November 13, 2010
Quoting Snowfire:
There has never, to my knowledge, been any kind of tropical cyclone in the Mediterranean. There was once a polar low (January 1995) which was the farthest south such system ever recorded, I think, but that is the closest one can come. The Mediterranean has neither high enough SSTs nor enough atmospheric moisture for true tropical cyclogenesis.

As to South Atlantic prospects, the historical database (1 hurricane, 2 tropical storms) is so small that it is difficult to make meaningful season predictions; the area is not well understood in these terms. It is not even easy to access satellite or other imagery from this area, which falls outside the usual maps.
HERE IS SOME LINKS ON MEDI TROPICAL LIKE SYSTEMS

Link

Link
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 170 Comments: 53570
120. Snowfire
4:01 AM GMT on November 13, 2010
There has never, to my knowledge, been any kind of tropical cyclone in the Mediterranean. There was once a polar low (January 1995) which was the farthest south such system ever recorded, I think, but that is the closest one can come. The Mediterranean has neither high enough SSTs nor enough atmospheric moisture for true tropical cyclogenesis.

As to South Atlantic prospects, the historical database (1 hurricane, 2 tropical storms) is so small that it is difficult to make meaningful season predictions; the area is not well understood in these terms. It is not even easy to access satellite or other imagery from this area, which falls outside the usual maps.
Member Since: June 29, 2005 Posts: 24 Comments: 308
119. pcola57
3:52 AM GMT on November 13, 2010
Quoting Chicklit:
This was a season of ULL's and dry air.
Mostly westward or nw movement.
very little activity in the gom or fl east coast.

I agree with you Chicklit,There was something brought up at the beginning of the season in the blog as being an initial set-up condition that was odd in some way...however this was a diverse group discussion and the banter didn't seem serious at the time...I believe the topic was "Cyclical Patterns"...Food for thought
Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 6819
118. sunlinepr
3:42 AM GMT on November 13, 2010
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9803
117. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
3:39 AM GMT on November 13, 2010
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 170 Comments: 53570
116. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
3:38 AM GMT on November 13, 2010
POSS.T.C.F.A
XX/INV/94L
MARK
11.56N/75.98W
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 170 Comments: 53570
115. hurricaneeye
3:34 AM GMT on November 13, 2010
Quoting caneswatch:
Seems like everyone is enjoying their Friday night lol


True! lol
Member Since: October 22, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 90
114. caneswatch
3:33 AM GMT on November 13, 2010
Seems like everyone is enjoying their Friday night lol
Member Since: October 8, 2008 Posts: 14 Comments: 4553
113. sunlinepr
3:24 AM GMT on November 13, 2010
84 hrs NAM

Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9803
112. sunlinepr
3:21 AM GMT on November 13, 2010
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9803
111. hurricaneeye
2:31 AM GMT on November 13, 2010
It seems Costa Rica is going to get more rainfall this weekend
Member Since: October 22, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 90
110. Orcasystems
2:26 AM GMT on November 13, 2010
Complete Update






TSPIN BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
109. Chicklit
2:18 AM GMT on November 13, 2010
This was a season of ULL's and dry air.
Mostly westward or nw movement.
very little activity in the gom or fl east coast.
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11280
108. aspectre
2:17 AM GMT on November 13, 2010
CybrTeddy "I know that Tomas hit one of the islands directly, don't know which one though. St. Lucia was the one that recorded the 90 mph winds while Tomas was strengthening."
55 WeatherNerdPR "Barbados was the landfall island."

TropicalStormTomas
30Oct 06amGMT - 12.4n58.8w - 65mph(~104.5km/h) - 997mb - NHC.Adv.#3A
30Oct 09amGMT - 12.9n59.5w - 70mph(~112.7km/h) - 994mb - NHC.Adv.#4
30Oct 12pmGMT - 13.1n60.1w - 70mph(~112.7km/h) - 993mb - NHC.Adv.#4A
HurricaneTomas
30Oct 03pmGMT - 13.3n60.7w - 75mph(~120.7km/h) - 993mb - NHC.Adv.#5
30Oct 06pmGMT - 13.4n61.0w - 75mph(~120.7km/h) - 992mb - NHC.Adv.#5A
30Oct 09pmGMT - 13.5n61.4w - 75mph(~120.7km/h) - 992mb - NHC.Adv.#6
30Oct 10pmGMT - 13.5n61.6w - 90mph(~144.9km/h) - 982mb - NHC.Adv.#7
31Oct 12amGMT - 13.5n61.7w - 90mph(~144.9km/h) - 982mb - NHC.Adv.#7A
Copy&paste 12.4n58.8w-12.9n59.5w, 12.9n59.5w-13.1n60.1w, 13.1n60.1w-13.3n60.7w, 13.3n60.7w-13.4n61.0w, 13.4n61.0w-13.5n61.4w, 13.5n61.4w-13.5n61.6w, 13.5n61.6w-13.5n61.7w, bgi, svd, uvf into the GreatCircleMapper for a look at the directions and distances traveled over those 18hours.

Doesn't exclude the possibility of (near) landfall on Barbados(BGI) -- a TropicalCyclone would curve through those position coordinates, and not make sharp turns at those recorded positions -- but even after making generous allowances for curvature, Tomas's center appears to have passed closer to St.Vincent(SVD) at ~4miles(6.4kilometres) from Fancy on the northern coastline.
Note also that the farthest point on St.Vincent is closer to the center of Tomas's passage than the nearest point on St.Lucia(UVF)
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
107. JLPR2
2:13 AM GMT on November 13, 2010


94L feeling happy
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8668
106. HurricaneDean07
2:03 AM GMT on November 13, 2010
Quoting BahaHurican:
I think he meant Mediterranean, not mid-ATL....

I'm out for a while....
still a med season is still unlikely to me. Too Many Fronts
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
105. BahaHurican
2:00 AM GMT on November 13, 2010
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
No, i agree with later on a possible south Atlantic Season, but a med atlantic season, NO. First of all this is where the ITCZ Sits and the NHC never calls a storm when its in the ITCZ.
I think he meant Mediterranean, not mid-ATL....

I'm out for a while....
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21903
104. Skyepony (Mod)
1:53 AM GMT on November 13, 2010
Quoting Jeff9641:


you might want to look again as again you are wrong!


I went through this with Tropical lastnight.

Tropical~ Neutral conditions start at -.5 the graph clearly shows ~2/3rds (11/6, a solid majority), favoring neutral or warmer.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37822
103. HurricaneDean07
1:48 AM GMT on November 13, 2010
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
i beleive one day we will actually have two new basins added to the atlantic and they would be the south atlantic basin from jan till april and the med basin from july too sept
No, i agree with later on a possible south Atlantic Season, but a med atlantic season, NO. First of all this is where the ITCZ Sits and the NHC never calls a storm when its in the ITCZ.
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
102. all4hurricanes
1:44 AM GMT on November 13, 2010
the latest I've found for a hurricane landfall in the US was Kate 1985 so the US statistically could still be hit, although I doubt anything will happen to the US for the rest of the year
Member Since: March 29, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2370
101. Skyepony (Mod)
1:41 AM GMT on November 13, 2010
Chances are Belize will feel some effect from 94L.. I'm trying to give it 24hrs before I put some certainty in that.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37822
Quoting weatherlover94:


what do intensity models say?
80 mph hurricane(Cat 1)
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:



Models have shifted quite a bit more northerly since earlier today.


what do intensity models say?
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Models have shifted quite a bit more northerly since earlier today.
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Quoting Neapolitan:
ATCF says no change in winds or pressure, but a little farther north:

AL, 94, 2010111300, , BEST, 0, 111N, 765W, 20, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 150, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,


I just redid everything... barely any physical changes in appearance either.

2 models are calling for a CAT 1
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
ATCF says no change in winds or pressure, but a little farther north:

AL, 94, 2010111300, , BEST, 0, 111N, 765W, 20, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 150, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13509
It is quite incredible how the temps in North Tx dropped after that Cold front came through. Tx is known to have extreme weather swings. Here in Fl. We're supposed to have beautiful weather for the weekend.
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well what ever this thing does weather its a tropical storm or hurricane its going to mean more rain for C America
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Click to enlarge
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
Quoting lightningbolt73:
The West coast of Fl would be a graveyard for 94 L. considering that water temps are now in the low 70s and the shear is so high.


i wouldnt be so sure Ida made it to the gulf coast as a 50 mph storm last year i think it would have been stronger if the shear was less
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hey glad to be back with you for the past 2 days there has been a glitch it said i had been band for what ever reason o well guess they saw it was an error..... i see we have another invest...94 L and i thought this season was over lol
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I wonder how far south that large gale force low would go,is getting close to warmer waters now.
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Quoting scott39:
Or go to the West Coast of Fl. LOL
The West coast of Fl would be a graveyard for 94 L. considering that water temps are now in the low 70s and the shear is so high.
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Quoting stormpetrol:

Was thinking the same thing, nice to see Drakoen posting again, I always enjoy his posts!
I also enjoy his posts and he is one of the more intelligent ones on here that knows what they are talking about.
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Quoting stormpetrol:

Hi, just looking at 94L, I think this maybe the first one of the Season that we really have to watch, especially with the NHC now stressing a WNW movement , JMO of course.
-From CaribWx update today.


If a Tropical LO forms, it is predicted by all Global models to move W-NW...toward Providencia/SanAndreas then Nicaragua...or
toward Nicaragua-Honduras border...or somewhere S&W of Jamaica, or near-or-S&W of Caymans...to anywhere in NW Caribbean (Yucatan or
Honduras).
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
I just said on another site that I hope Cayman's luck hasn't run out. I think we need to watch it closely too. Drakoen(I think) or KOG mentioned earlier a cold front coming down in a couple days which would most likely bring it in this direction.:(

Was thinking the same thing, nice to see Drakoen posting again, I always enjoy his posts!
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Quoting stormpetrol:

Hi, just looking at 94L, I think this maybe the first one of the Season that we really have to watch, especially with the NHC now stressing a WNW movement , JMO of course.
I just said on another site that I hope Cayman's luck hasn't run out. I think we need to watch it closely too. Drakoen(I think) or KOG mentioned earlier a cold front coming down in a couple days which would most likely bring it in this direction.:(
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Hi. Have you ever been to Grand Cayman yet ?

Hi, just looking at 94L, I think this maybe the first one of the Season that we really have to watch, especially with the NHC now stressing a WNW movement , JMO of course.
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Quoting DoverWxwatchter:
At this date in 2005 there had been 23 storms. 22 had names. 5 more were to come. It's too bad the subtropical storm designated later never got a name--we would have made it to Eta.
NE eye walls skirt the island they got the highest winds, 90mps wind gusting 110mph, so whats the difference?
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Quoting RMM34667:


Booked, Packed, Sailing Sunday.. Tuesday Grand Cayman, Wedsday Cozumel, Thursday Belize, Friday Roatan... (or not?)
Hi. Have you ever been to Grand Cayman yet ?
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Locally acquired case of dengue fever turns up in Miami

The case is the first in more than 50 years where the disease was contracted locally. Health officials warned people to take precautions against the mosquito carriers.
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
Quoting Waltanater:
Already booked! Will be admiring the Hurricane- stricken islands and all the damage leftover while basking in the sun drinking a Pina colada while wearing shades! AH ha ha ha ha.


Booked, Packed, Sailing Sunday.. Tuesday Grand Cayman, Wedsday Cozumel, Thursday Belize, Friday Roatan... (or not?)
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7PM EST TWO

Still 30% for 94L
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XX/INV/94L
MARK
11.56N/75.98W
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 170 Comments: 53570
Besides 94L not much out there.


I hope 94L fizzles, eh... 19 storms is more than enough. :]
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8668
Complete Update






TSPIN BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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