Caribbean disturbance 94L may develop early next week

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 8:11 PM GMT on November 12, 2010

Share this Blog
3
+

An area of disturbed weather (Invest 94L) has developed in the southern Caribbean off the coast of Colombia, and has the potential to develop into a tropical depression early next week. Satellite images show that 94L has a limited amount of heavy thunderstorms, but the activity is showing signs of organization, with several curved bands developing on the west side of 94L's center. Water vapor satellite images show a large amount of dry air lies to the north over the northern Caribbean, and this dry air may slow down development to a small degree. SSTs are warm, 29°C, and wind shear as analyzed by the University of Wisconsin CIMSS group is a moderate 10 - 15 knots.


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of 94L.

Forecast for 94L
The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear will remain in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, through Sunday, then rise to the high range, 20 - 30 knots, Monday through Wednesday next week. The modest shear, warm SSTs, and relatively moist atmosphere should allow for some slow organization of 94L as it moves slowly westwards at 5 mph over the next two days. The models predict that the steering currents in the southern Caribbean will keep 94L moving generally westwards at about 5 mph for the next five days, which would bring the storm ashore over Nicaragua or northeast Honduras on Wednesday. Both the GFS and NOGAPS models show some modest development of 94L, and NHC is giving the system a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to investigate 94L on Monday afternoon. At this time, it appears that 94L will only be a concern for Central America. I give 94L a 50% chance of eventually becoming Tropical Storm Virginie.

I'll have an update Saturday by 1pm EDT.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 171 - 121

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5Blog Index

Magnitude 5.6 - DOMINICAN REPUBLIC REGION
2010 November 13 04:35:40 UTC
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
Quoting KrippleCreekFerry:
Hi everybody. My first post here! Lurked most of the season but finally got the guts to join up at the end of the season. Hope you all are not too critical of me, since I am somewhat of a novice about weather.


Welcome!

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
168. JRRP
Quoting sunlinepr:


You can report it here

Link

ok ahora mismo termine
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Man.... Dominican Republic - La Altagracia San Rafael del Yuma is only 57 km or 35 mi from the epicenter....

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
166. JRRP
Quoting JLPR2:


Oh yes you guys are closer to the epicenter.

yea
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting JRRP:

but here in santo domingo we felt it strong


You can report it here

Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
163. JLPR2
Quoting sunlinepr:


See the already posted responses from PR and Sto. Domingo here

Link


Wow, Puertoricans are faster than I thought LOL!
Most of PRs reports are from the west and south regions.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8499
Quoting sunlinepr:


I always fill out the report form... those stats are usefull to be provided....

Good deal. They even leave the report capability open on some archived earthquakes so people are able to go back and add to the "did you feel it?" database for events that happened long ago. Useful indeed...
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13456
Quoting JLPR2:


Oh yes you guys are closer to the epicenter.


See the already posted responses from PR and Sto. Domingo here

Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
94L is still pretty much disorganized, but convection has been building for the last few hours, and some fairly cold tops are becoming more evident:

Click for an animated loop:

Appropriate tropical weather-related image
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13456
Quoting Neapolitan:

Did you call them, or fill out the report form?


I always fill out the report form... those stats are usefull to be provided....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting DoverWxwatchter:
sunlinepr any info on how deep that Namibian low was?


Check the link please, if you find out the info....

Link

The feeling you get is to prepare mentally if a real earthquake hits, to get the family out of the house...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
157. JLPR2
Quoting JRRP:

but here in santo domingo we felt it strong


Oh yes you guys are closer to the epicenter.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8499
Quoting sunlinepr:


Many thanks Neopolitan.... I just reported it to USGS

Did you call them, or fill out the report form?
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13456
155. JRRP
Quoting Neapolitan:

Not that small; 'twas a 5.4 (272 km (169 miles) WSW (258�) from San Juan, PR):




but here in santo domingo we felt it strong
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I hope all are ok
I don't need to look out for a tsunami in St. Croix do I?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
153. JLPR2
Quoting sunlinepr:


My computer table had a little shake... Not too much... smaller than the last one (about 9 mo. ago). Though I'm in the NE of PR, In Mayaguez, Cabo Rojo they should have felt it stronger....


Yep, I'm in the NE too, I remember that during the last one I felt the bed move and the television almost fell from the table, but for this one I guess I was distracted with music and didn't even notice. XD
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8499
Complete Update






TSPIN BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
Quoting JLPR2:
Seriously? An earthquake? I didn't feel anything. :P


My computer table had a little shake... Not too much... smaller than the last one (about 9 mo. ago). Though I'm in the NE of PR, In Mayaguez, Cabo Rojo they should have felt it stronger....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2041
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0919 PM CST FRI NOV 12 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...WESTERN/NORTHERN IA TO SOUTH-CENTRAL MN

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 130319Z - 130745Z

A CHANGEOVER TO MODERATE/HEAVY WET SNOW IS EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF
THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT WITHIN A SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST CORRIDOR ACROSS
WESTERN/NORTHERN IA TO SOUTH-CENTRAL MN.

IT IS LIKELY THAT PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND/ORIENT INTO
GENERAL SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST BANDS THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT WITHIN
AN EVOLVING DEFORMATION BAND/LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM FAR
EASTERN NEB TO WESTERN/NORTHERN IA AND SOUTHERN MN. SURFACE WET BULB
TEMPERATURES REMAIN AROUND/JUST ABOVE FREEZING IN MOST LOCALES AT
MID EVENING /03Z/...BUT COLD ADVECTION/HIGH PRECIPITATION RATES WILL
CONTINUE TO RESULT IN A CHANGEOVER TO /OR AT LEAST EMBEDDED BOUTS
OF/ SNOW.

IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE 00Z OMAHA OBSERVED RAOB AND OBSERVED SURFACE
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS...RUC/00Z NAM SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THE IDEA OF A
CHANGEOVER TO MODERATE/HEAVY WET SNOW THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT
WITHIN THIS CORRIDOR...WITH A SATURATED DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER ATOP
A DEEP /JUST BELOW FREEZING/ ISOTHERMAL LAYER BEING RATHER FAVORABLE
FOR LARGE FLAKES/AGGREGATE SNOW GROWTH ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE 06Z-09Z
TIME FRAME AND BEYOND. FURTHERMORE...WITH RELATIVELY WEAK STATIC
STABILITY/STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT /AND EVEN SOME SCANT CAPE NOTED IN
SOME FORECAST SOUNDINGS/...EMBEDDED SNOW RATES MAY APPROACH OR
EXCEED 1 IN/HR ON A LOCALIZED BASIS.

..GUYER.. 11/13/2010


ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...

LAT...LON 44539438 44089282 42689443 41509536 42389641 44539438
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Neapolitan:

Not that small; 'twas a 5.4:





Many thanks Neopolitan.... I just reported it to USGS
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Thanks for the links, Keeper.

Link 1 describes systems characterized by small size, rapid spin-up, relatively low SSTs, and dry feed air which is substantially colder than the sea it overruns--in other words, they sound polar rather than tropical in nature. Link 2 has some nice photos, showing open-topped systems (lacking a CDO), which is often also a characteristic of polar lows. Compare this photo of the 1/15/95 storm



with that of this spiraliform storm in the Barents Sea:



To me they look darn similar, and I submit they are both polar lows. Admittedly one contained rain and the other snow, but I see no other important difference.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting sunlinepr:


Im looking for that in the article and here I just felt a small EARTHQUAKE here in Caguas PR....

Not that small; 'twas a 5.4 5.6 272 km (169 miles) WSW of San Juan:



Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13456
145. JLPR2
Seriously? An earthquake? I didn't feel anything. :P
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8499
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


HERE IS A MED IMAGE

AND ANOTHER ONE BELOW


Thankx KOTG; I was on a small cruise ship in Rhodes where we had to be held against the peir by two tug boats because of 90mph winds. Coming from a hurricane prone area,it sure felt like that type of a storm. no matter what its called
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
143. JRRP
Quoting sunlinepr:


Se movio toda la pantalla de la PC y el sofa....

Si aqui tambien
las ventanas se escuchaban q estaban temblando
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
USGS has not plotted that yet...

Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


good heavy expanding snow shield dev. with the storm now T dude still got 6 hrs of cooling left till first light


yeah I bet there will be totals near 15 inches when it's done
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting JRRP:
un temblor de tierra


Se movio toda la pantalla de la PC y el sofa....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting DoverWxwatchter:
sunlinepr any info on how deep that Namibian low was?


Im looking for that in the article and here I just felt a small EARTHQUAKE here in Caguas PR....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


good heavy expanding snow shield dev. with the storm now T dude still got 6 hrs of cooling left till first light
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
137. JRRP
un temblor de tierra aqui en santo domingo
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
On this day in weather history ..

* 1906 - The mercury soared to 106 degrees at Craftonville, CA, a November record for the U.S. (The Weather Channel)

* 1959 - Between Noon on the 11th and Noon on the 12th, a winter storm buried Helena, MT, under 21.5 inches of snow, which surpassed their previous 24 hour record by seven inches. (The Weather Channel)

* 1968 - A severe coastal storm produced high winds and record early snows from Georgia to Maine. Winds reached 90 mph in Massachusetts, and ten inches of snow blanketed interior Maine. (David Ludlum)

* 1974 - A great Alaska storm in the Bering Sea caused the worst coastal flooding of memory at Nome AK with a tide of 13.2 feet. The flooding caused 12 million dollars damage, however no lives are lost. (David Ludlum)

* 1987 - Heavy snow spread across much of New England. Totals in Massachusetts ranged up to 14 inches in Plymouth County. The seven inch total at the Logan Airport in Boston was their highest of record for so early in the season, and the 9.7 inch total at Providence RI was a record for November. Roads were clogged with traffic and made impassable as snowplow operators were caught unprepared for the early season snowstorm. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

* 1988 - Thunderstorms developing ahead of a cold front produced severe weather in the Lower Mississippi Valley during the afternoon and early evening hours. Thunderstorms produced wind gusts to 80 mph at Bovina MS. Morning thunderstorms drenched Atlanta TX with more than four inches of rain. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

* 1989 - Thirty-three cities reported record high temperatures for the date as readings soared into the 70s and 80s from the Southern and Central Plains to the Southern and Middle Atlantic Coast Region. The afternoon high of 80 degrees at Scottsbluff NE was a record for November, and highs of 76 degrees at Rapid City SD and 81 degrees at Chattanooga TN were the warmest of record for so late in the season. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

* 2003 - Thunderstorms developed in southern California and produced torrential downpours across parts of the Los Angeles area. More than 5 inches of rain fell in just 2 hours in southern Los Angeles, producing severe urban flooding. Small hail also accompanied the storms, accumulating several inches deep in some areas of the city. Nearly 115,000 electrical customers lost power as the storms affected the area (Associated Press).

Sources: All information, except those items marked as coming from Intellicast, are from a compilation of weather facts by Hugh Crowther of the Aviation Weather Center. Hugh is a weather historian and has collected and organized weather facts for every day of the year.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
my conclussion remains that in the future the medi basin being added as a new basin is poss also the south atlantic being added is there as well although there is not as much support as the medi basin
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
The Meteosat-9 image below shows the case of a tropical low over the Namibia-Botswana border area that occurred in January 2010. The tropical low had a distinct spiral structure with embedded convective cells, but no eye. On the following day, as the low progressed through the central parts of South Africa, the intense and prolonged ....
Link

Member Since: Posts: Comments:




URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
902 PM CST FRI NOV 12 2010

...FIRST SIGNIFICANT SNOW OF THE SEASON EXPECTED FOR PARTS OF
SOUTH AND CENTRAL MINNESOTA INCLUDING THE TWIN CITIES METRO ALONG
WITH WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN...

.A WINTER STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE SEVEN
COUNTY METRO AREA. IT CONTINUES FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL...SOUTH
CENTRAL...INTO WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR A ROW OF COUNTIES ON EITHER SIDE OF THE
WARNING. STORM TOTAL SNOWFALLS WITHIN THE WARNING ARE EXPECTED TO
BE BETWEEN 6 AND 10 INCHES WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS NEAR 12
INCHES POSSIBLE. THE ADVISORY AREA CAN EXPECT 3 TO 6 INCHES OF
SNOW.


HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA SHORTLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS MOVING NORTH OUT
OF MISSOURI. PRECIPITATION WILL QUICKLY SPREAD NORTH ACROSS
MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SATURDAY
AS THE LOW HEADS INTO EASTERN IOWA...EVENTUALLY MOVING INTO THE
WESTERN UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN BY SUNDAY MORNING. THERE MAY
BE A PERIOD OF MIXED RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE
FORM OF WET SNOW. THE HEAVY SNOW AREA SHOULD DEVELOP FROM NEAR
FAIRMONT...MANKATO...THE TWIN CITIES METRO AREA...TO NEAR
CAMBRIDGE...AND BALSAM LAKE WISCONSIN.

ALTHOUGH GROUND AND ROAD TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY ABOVE
FREEZING...SNOWFALL RATES OF AROUND AN INCH AN HOUR...WILL BE
STRONG ENOUGH THROUGH THE MUCH OF THE MORNING ON SATURDAY TO ALLOW
THIS SNOWFALL TO ACCUMULATE ON ROADWAYS...LEADING TO HAZARDOUS
TRAVEL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. IF TRAVEL IS PLANNED ON
SATURDAY...BE SURE TO CHECK ROAD AND WEATHER CONDITIONS BEFORE
HEADING OUT AND BE PREPARED TO USE EXTRA TIME TO GET TO YOUR
DESTINATION.

MNZ044-045-051>053-058>061-065-066-068-069-WIZ014-131115-
/O.CON.KMPX.WS.W.0004.101113T1200Z-101114T1200Z/
MILLE LACS-KANABEC-SHERBURNE-ISANTI-CHISAGO-MEEKER-WRIGHT-
HENNEPIN-ANOKA-RENVILLE-MCLEOD-CARVER-SCOTT-POLK-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PRINCETON...MORA...ELK RIVER...
CAMBRIDGE...CENTER CITY...LITCHFIELD...MONTICELLO...MINNEAPOLIS...
BLAINE...OLIVIA...HUTCHINSON...CHASKA...SHAKOPEE...AMERY...
BALSAM LAKE
902 PM CST FRI NOV 12 2010

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO
6 AM CST SUNDAY...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO
6 AM CST SUNDAY.

* TIMING...SIGNIFICANT SNOW WILL BEGIN EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. SNOW WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES
ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS...WITH SNOWFALL RATES AROUND
AN INCH AN HOUR LIKELY.

* MAIN IMPACT...HEAVY WET SNOW WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF 7 TO 10
INCHES.

* OTHER IMPACTS...DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS WITH AN INCREASE
IN WIND SPEEDS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF
SNOW ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. ONLY TRAVEL IN
AN EMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...
FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY.

&&

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
No, i agree with later on a possible south Atlantic Season, but a med atlantic season, NO. First of all this is where the ITCZ Sits and the NHC never calls a storm when its in the ITCZ.

Med bassin mean Mediteranean basin Europe and North africa.
Member Since: September 15, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 114


HERE IS A SAMPLE ANIM
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
howdy everyone
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Thanks KOTG,
Take a look at Post #109 and then my response #119 and see if you can link us or add to this discussion TIA
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
Quoting Snowfire:
There has never, to my knowledge, been any kind of tropical cyclone in the Mediterranean. ......


Mediterranean Sea

Storms that appear similar to tropical cyclones in structure sometimes occur in the Mediterranean basin. Examples of these "Mediterranean tropical cyclones" formed in September 1947, September 1969, September 1973, August 1976, January 1982, September 1983, December 1984, December 1985, October 1994, January 1995, October 1996, September 1997, December 2005, September 2006. However, there is debate on whether these storms were tropical in nature.[30] The Black Sea has, on occasion, produced or fueled storms that begin cyclonic rotation, and appear to be similar to cyclones seen in the Mediterranean.[31]
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


HERE IS A MED IMAGE

AND ANOTHER ONE BELOW
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
Quoting Snowfire:
There has never, to my knowledge, been any kind of tropical cyclone in the Mediterranean. There was once a polar low (January 1995) which was the farthest south such system ever recorded, I think, but that is the closest one can come. The Mediterranean has neither high enough SSTs nor enough atmospheric moisture for true tropical cyclogenesis.

As to South Atlantic prospects, the historical database (1 hurricane, 2 tropical storms) is so small that it is difficult to make meaningful season predictions; the area is not well understood in these terms. It is not even easy to access satellite or other imagery from this area, which falls outside the usual maps.
HERE IS SOME LINKS ON MEDI TROPICAL LIKE SYSTEMS

Link

Link
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296

Viewing: 171 - 121

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Mostly Cloudy
73 °F
Mostly Cloudy