Caribbean disturbance 94L may develop early next week

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 8:11 PM GMT on November 12, 2010

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An area of disturbed weather (Invest 94L) has developed in the southern Caribbean off the coast of Colombia, and has the potential to develop into a tropical depression early next week. Satellite images show that 94L has a limited amount of heavy thunderstorms, but the activity is showing signs of organization, with several curved bands developing on the west side of 94L's center. Water vapor satellite images show a large amount of dry air lies to the north over the northern Caribbean, and this dry air may slow down development to a small degree. SSTs are warm, 29°C, and wind shear as analyzed by the University of Wisconsin CIMSS group is a moderate 10 - 15 knots.


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of 94L.

Forecast for 94L
The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear will remain in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, through Sunday, then rise to the high range, 20 - 30 knots, Monday through Wednesday next week. The modest shear, warm SSTs, and relatively moist atmosphere should allow for some slow organization of 94L as it moves slowly westwards at 5 mph over the next two days. The models predict that the steering currents in the southern Caribbean will keep 94L moving generally westwards at about 5 mph for the next five days, which would bring the storm ashore over Nicaragua or northeast Honduras on Wednesday. Both the GFS and NOGAPS models show some modest development of 94L, and NHC is giving the system a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to investigate 94L on Monday afternoon. At this time, it appears that 94L will only be a concern for Central America. I give 94L a 50% chance of eventually becoming Tropical Storm Virginie.

I'll have an update Saturday by 1pm EDT.

Jeff Masters

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New Blogg
Member Since: January 10, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 930
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
My guess. The thing i find weird is that the GFS didnt predicted Puala and Richard but is predicting this.
Be Back Later....

:O)..The latest satellite map looks like August in the tropics..
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Quoting Bordonaro:

Hyperactive Atlantic Hurricane season continues!!!
My guess. The thing i find weird is that the GFS didnt predicted Puala and Richard but is predicting this.
Be Back Later....
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94L= Virginie? 70% Of Forming At All
Pre-95L/Tropcial Wave= Walter? 25% Of Forming At All

There's A 55% Chance Of Exhausting the naming list.

Getting To The Greek Alphabet is Prob. 26% Chance
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Quoting HurricaneDean07:
The GFS 00z and 06z are seriously wanting to develop 94L and a tropical wave that is currently on western Africa.
94L: Is predicted to form in about 36 to 48 hours on the GFS
Tropical Wave: The GFS shows it take a detour off the ITCZ and start heading toward the area where Tomas formed and forms pretty close to that area.

Hyperactive Atlantic Hurricane season continues!!!
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Have a great Saturday everyone!
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High Surf Advisory here in ECFL; otherwise a Chamber of Commerce Day for the Flamingo Follies Art Fair on Flagler Ave.
Nowcast as of 9:57 am EST on November 13, 2010
Now
strong low pressure system near Bermuda will create hazardous marine conditions for east central Florida through this weekend... A ridge of high pressure still aligned over the eastern United States will remain in place through tonight...as a large...powerful oceanic storm centered near Bermuda...continues to spin in place. Seas will build 8 to 11 feet within 20 nautical miles of the coast through tonight...while farther offshore seas will build 11 to 15 feet. Breaking waves will increase to between 8 and 11 feet during the early afternoon high tide today. Along with the rough surf...some cuts in The Sand Bar will develop...which will produce an increasing threat for strong rip currents during this afternoons outgoing tide. Boating and surf conditions will remain very hazardous through this weekend. Both a high surf advisory and a Small Craft Advisory remain in affect for the coastal and offshore regions...respectively. Additional details...including graphics are available online at: http://www.Srh.NOAA.Gov/mlb/blog.Php

Forecast for Coastal Volusia County

Updated: 3:36 am EST on November 13, 2010
High surf advisory in effect until 10 am EST Monday...
Today
Partly sunny. Highs in the mid 70s. North winds 5 to 10 mph becoming northeast in the afternoon.
» ZIP Code Detail
Tonight
Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 50s. North winds around 5 mph.
Sunday
Partly sunny. Highs in the mid 70s. Northwest winds around 5 mph becoming north 5 to 10 mph in the afternoon.
NFL: Date: Forecast:
Lions vs. Bills 1:00 PM EST on November 14, 2010 Chance of Rain, 59 °F
Vikings vs. Bears 12:00 PM CST on November 14, 2010 Partly Cloudy, 43 °F
College Football: Date: Forecast:
Bears vs. Big Green 12:00 PM EST on November 13, 2010 Clear, 58 °F
Eagles vs. Blue Devils 12:00 PM EST on November 13, 2010 Clear, 63 °F
Football (Soccer): Date: Forecast:
Vfl Osnabruck vs. Arminia Bielefeld 1:00 PM CET on November 13, 2010 Chance of Rain, High 57° F/ 14° C
1. FC Union Berlin vs. FSV Frankfurt 1:00 PM CET on November 13, 2010 Clear, High 57° F/ 14° C
NASCAR: Date: Forecast:
Ford 400 1:15 PM EST on November 21, 2010 Average High 79° F/ 26° C
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The GFS 00z and 06z are seriously wanting to develop 94L and a tropical wave that is currently on western Africa.
94L: Is predicted to form in about 36 to 48 hours on the GFS
Tropical Wave: The GFS shows it take a detour off the ITCZ and start heading toward the area where Tomas formed and forms pretty close to that area.
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Sure looks like it wants to make it to TD status; convection continues to fire up at and around the center to replace earlier blowups, and that convection is expanding in areal coverage. I imagine the pressure will be lower than 1009mb at the next update. This image is centered at 11.2N/76.4W:

Click for larger image:

Appropriate tropical weather-related image
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Complete Update






TSPIN BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
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Quoting afj3:

How long ago?
Quoting JRRP:
lo que no entiendo es por q no hay replicas Aqui en el area oeste Puerto Rico,en Mayaguez, a 95 millas del epicentro se sinti pero muy poco.
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Quoting Neapolitan:

Before that, even; 137 & 139 were both by forum members who felt the quake...
Live from the WU blog...Sounds scary..I have never felt an earthquake.
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Quoting SQUAWK:


Go back to post #147 in this blog last night and you can see what happened. They were on the blog when it happened.

Before that, even; 137 & 139 were both by forum members who felt the quake...
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Quoting SQUAWK:


Go back to post #147 in this blog last night and you can see what happened. They were on the blog when it happened.
Thank you Squawk..Someone on the news said that Haiti could have another big quake anytime. That the fault did not release all the stress it has stored in the earth,s crust. Therefore the possibility of a large earthquake in the same region. Not exactly welcome news for folks down there.
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Quoting hydrus:
I dont Know...KEEPEROFTHEGATE may have something on his blog about it.


Go back to post #147 in this blog last night and you can see what happened. They were on the blog when it happened.
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:
guys give me a sitrep (meaning a update) on 94L
You should give us an update...You are almost standing on it..:).. is fighting dry air to the N.W.quadrant...It is organizing slowly though...Water temp at 29 degrees..
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guys give me a sitrep (meaning a update) on 94L
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Quoting afj3:

Link
A little blurb on it in the news....
Thank you..:)
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203. afj3
Quoting hydrus:
I dont Know...KEEPEROFTHEGATE may have something on his blog about it.

Link
A little blurb on it in the news....
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Quoting afj3:

How long ago?
I dont Know...KEEPEROFTHEGATE may have something on his blog about it.
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201. afj3
Quoting hydrus:
I think it was in the Dominican Republic.

How long ago?
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

There was an earthquake? I didn't even know...
I think it was in the Dominican Republic.
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Quoting hydrus:
Good morning WNPR...Heard there was an earthquake not far from you.Angry mass of cotton...

There was an earthquake? I didn't even know...
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5725
La Niña and Wildfire Activity in Florida
(Increased Fire Danger Predicted for 2011)
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
Good Morning.
Good morning WNPR...Heard there was an earthquake not far from you.Angry mass of cotton...
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Morning! Looks like 94L's on its way to become Virginie.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24468
Good Morning.
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5725
94L (pre-Virginie?) looks better this morning, although ATCF says it's barely changed overnight with the exception of being just a little farther north than it was. The disturbance has some fairly dry air just to its north, but for now it seems to be dealing with it well enough to slowly organize:

AL, 94, 2010111312, , BEST, 0, 111N, 768W, 20, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 125, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
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SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED DURING THE PAST FEW
HOURS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
EXTREME SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN SEA. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT
DRIFTS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT
...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11401
A 1009 MB LOW IS LOCATED IN THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA CENTERED NEAR
11N77W THAT CONTINUES TO PRODUCE AN AREA OF UNORGANIZED WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION COVERING THE AREA S OF 16N BETWEEN
71W-80W. AS THIS AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS SLOWLY MOVED
WESTWARD OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...IT CONTINUES TO LOCATE
ITSELF BENEATH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA. THIS IS PROVIDING AN UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT FOR THE ONGOING CONVECTION.
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM DRIFTS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THERE IS
A MEDIUM CHANCE OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11401
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11401



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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


That's kind of a surprising graphic.

Even my NWS agency is hinting at cold weather here on Thanksgiving week, and we're in Texas. I believe that map will be changing.


PNA going negative, usu. means cold stays north. Hope so. CPC usually gets it right, and their confidence for 6-10 and 8-14 days is 4 out of 5.

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Quoting JRRP:
lo que no entiendo es por q no hay replicas


Creo que es porque no es un terremoto sino un temblor.... todos los dias tiembla en RD y PR... Como no es un episodio mayor no hay otras consecuencias.....

Everyday we have tremors all along the Antilles...
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Quoting DontAnnoyMe:


It was one of my college days favorites. Yeah, I'm that old.

Looks like the cold air will remain to the north for a while - fine with me.


That's kind of a surprising graphic.

Even my NWS agency is hinting at cold weather here on Thanksgiving week, and we're in Texas. I believe that map will be changing.
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184. JRRP
Quoting sunlinepr:


Bien, espero que todos alla esten bien y que no hayan perdidas de ningun tipo....

por lo menos hasta ahora no hay informe de daños

esperemos que no...
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183. JRRP
lo que no entiendo es por q no hay replicas
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Quoting KrippleCreekFerry:
I feel so welcome. That's my anthem! Can't believe you knew that song, and you played it. It's such ah, well, happy song!


It was one of my college days favorites. Yeah, I'm that old.

Looks like the cold air will remain to the north for a while - fine with me.
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Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54827
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54827
94L

Background Muse - Judy Blue Eyes

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Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54827
M 5.6 - DOMINICAN REPUBLIC REGION
Alert Level: GREEN
Saturday, November 13th, 2010 at 04:35:40 UTC (00:35:40 local)
Location: 17.9° N, 68.6° WDepth: 96km
Event Id: USC0000A13
Alert Version: 1
Created: 19 minutes, 19 seconds after earthquake.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54827
Quoting DontAnnoyMe:


Welcome!

I feel so welcome. That's my anthem! Can't believe you knew that song, and you played it. It's such ah, well, happy song!
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Quoting JRRP:

ok ahora mismo termine


Bien, espero que todos alla esten bien y que no hayan perdidas de ningun tipo....
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To: Puerto Rico and Virgin Islands coastal regions
From: NOAA/NWS/West Coast and Alaska Tsunami Warning Center
Subject: Tsunami Information Statement issued 11/13/2010 at 12:38AM AST

At 12:36 AM Atlantic Standard Time on November 13, an earthquake with preliminary magnitude 5.4 occurred 95 miles/153 Km southwest of Mayaguez, Puerto Rico .

The magnitude is such that a tsunami WILL NOT be generated. This will be the only WCATWC message issued for this event.

The location and magnitude are based on preliminary information. Further information will be issued by the United States Geological Survey or the Puerto Rico Seismic Network.

Link to Standard Information Statement
Link to XML/CAP Message
Link to Printable Message

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54827
The good thing about the area, at least for the moment, is that it is releasing energy every day... through small tremors... Danger comes when you get no tremors for a couple of days and acumulated energy is released....

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Magnitude 5.6 - DOMINICAN REPUBLIC REGION
2010 November 13 04:35:40 UTC
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54827

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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