Caribbean disturbance 93L no threat; remembering the Edmund Fitzgerald storm

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:31 PM GMT on November 10, 2010

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An area of disturbed weather (Invest 93L) near Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands is drifting northwards. The heavy thunderstorm activity associated with 93L is rather limited, due in part to some surrounding dry air. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 15 knots and SSTs are very warm, 29°C, but 93L is headed into a region of very high wind shear, and does not have time to develop. None of the reliable global forecast models for predicting tropical cyclone formation (GFS, NOGAPS, ECMWF, and UKMET) are developing 93L into a tropical depression over the coming week, and NHC is giving 93L a 10% chance of developing by Friday.

The GFS and NOGAPS models predict a strong tropical disturbance will form in the southern Caribbean off the coast of Colombia 6 - 7 days from now, and move west-northwest towards Nicaragua.


Figure 1. Rainfall totals for Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands from Invest 93L.

35th anniversary of the "Edmund Fitzgerald" storm
Thirty five years ago today, on November 10, 1975, one of the strongest storms in Great Lakes history sank the ore carrier Edmund Fitzgerald on Lake Superior, with the loss of all 29 men aboard. Our Weather Extremes blogger Christopher C. Burt has a look back at this date in weather history, which also features four other remarkable record-setting storms: the 1911 Great Cold Front, the 1913 "White Hurricane", the 1940 Armistice Day Blizzard, and the 1998 Super Cyclone.


Figure 2. The S.S. Edmund Fitzgerald in calmer waters. Photo from NOAA.

I'll have a new post Thursday morning.

Jeff Masters

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430. hcubed
8:20 PM GMT on November 11, 2010
383. JFLORIDA 1:26 AM CST on November 11, 2010

"377 I cant believe how many sites "source" Anthony Watts. Do you even know the particular climate study where that data was used and what statistical methods were used to eliminate error?"

So because it came from Watt's site, that AUTOMATICALLY makes it wrong?

Did you read the post?

In case you didn't, a recap:

"...The error is compounded in the sense that it propagates via V2 into the GISS database, and other users of GHCN V2..."

You know, GISS. The most accurate surface temperature data base because they ESTIMATE (extrapolate) the Arctic contribution from stations 6oo miles away.

And remember, we're only about .6 degrees above "normal" (according to GISS).

So what studies are effected? Any study that uses GISS as their database.
Member Since: May 18, 2007 Posts: 289 Comments: 1639
429. hydrus
1:54 PM GMT on November 11, 2010
Quoting TampaSpin:


As you are again. OnlY left wing LIBERALS do....JUST THE TRUTH......POOOF!
The GEM still has our possible Virginie out there..Link The NAM has it as well...
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 19494
428. IKE
1:47 PM GMT on November 11, 2010
NEW BLOG!
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
426. TomasTomas
1:45 PM GMT on November 11, 2010
Quoting Jeff9641:


Alright JFV go somewhere else with your I love Tomas.


When using Dr. Masters' blog, please refrain from posting material not relevant to the discussion of tropical weather, or the topic of the blog entry itself.

Blog title: Caribbean disturbance 93L no threat; remembering the Edmund Fitzgerald storm

Material not conforming to these standards should be flagged with the ! button and ignored.

Member Since: October 29, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 30
425. Bordonaro
1:44 PM GMT on November 11, 2010
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Going to be a big storm for the USA


And we can blame this on Levi!!!
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
423. TropicalAnalystwx13
1:43 PM GMT on November 11, 2010
Ugh....I can't learn how to quote people automatically.

Daren you Neapolitan :P
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30237
422. TropicalAnalystwx13
1:42 PM GMT on November 11, 2010
Going to be a big storm for the USA

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30237
419. Bordonaro
1:41 PM GMT on November 11, 2010
Let me click my heels three times and say...."Their is no place like home, no place like home, no place like home"....

This is not the McLaughlin Group...This is a weather blog....

Oh, look at the new lil' area of convection that moved off of Venezuela.
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
417. TropicalAnalystwx13
1:39 PM GMT on November 11, 2010
Quoting Jeff9641:


We got lucky this time man! That is some serious crape going on and if we don't put a stop to this now then one of these plots will go through and it's just a matter of time. We also don't know how many other bombs are being sent over to the US for an attack either.


Calm down, Jeff
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30237
416. Vincent4989
1:38 PM GMT on November 11, 2010
Quoting barbamz:
And another portrait of this stormy lady with greetings from Germany. In a hurry, Barbara


Is that a windstorm?
Member Since: November 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 728
415. Bordonaro
1:37 PM GMT on November 11, 2010
Quoting barbamz:
"Carmen" approaching us ...



Source: http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/realtime/single.php?T103151125

Looks like Carmen is stopping first in the UK to have her afternoon "cuppa tea" :O) before she slams into Western Europe.
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
413. Neapolitan
1:33 PM GMT on November 11, 2010
Quoting Jeff9641:
Bomb was set to explode over NYC but the bomb foiled while on a UPS Cargo plane. Another bomb was found in Dubia as well on a plane heading to the US. Very serious stuff happening right now and apparenting OBAMA got wind of this and took his family out of the US for awhile. These bombs are Yemen based and are being targeted for the NE cities. Could be the reason for a missil launch off California.

Obama's current trip abroad was centered around the G-20 summit, which was planned many, many months ago, long before Al Qaeda's latest--and, again, foiled--attempt to take over the world by sending a letter bomb.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13250
412. HurricaneDean07
1:31 PM GMT on November 11, 2010
Quoting Jeff9641:


From being in the army for many years and a military background that was not a plane. I can assure you of that and remember the government will not leak to much information out right now. That was a missile I promise you that.
now that im seeing it again, i can agree it could be either one. FOX Seems to have bought it. lol
Anyway im going to get out for a while. Be back later.
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
409. Neapolitan
1:27 PM GMT on November 11, 2010
From the first moment I saw it, I knew it was a jet contrail. No missile, no UFO, no comet, no meteor. Nope, nothing more exotic than a perfectly normal, everyday, garden-variety, ho-hum jet contrail. I've seen them a million times while living in southern California and south Florida, both places with a large volume a high-altitude flyovers. Here's a webpage created before this week's "event" that very clearly demonstrates the absolute non-mystery of the whole thing.

Yes, the military could have been "so quick" to dismiss the thing as an ordinary jet contrail because they wanted to cover up a conspiracy of some sort--or they could have been "so quick" to dismiss the thing as an ordinary jet contrail because it was, you know, an ordinary jet contrail.

As I've said about other things here--GW, hurricane forecasting, etc.--scientific fact always triumphs. Always.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13250
408. TampaSpin
1:27 PM GMT on November 11, 2010
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:


TampaSpin...Now you are REALLY showing your butt...EVERYONE makes fun of Fox news, and he did put a j/k after his statement.


As you are again. OnlY left wing LIBERALS do....JUST THE TRUTH......POOOF!
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 177 Comments: 20430
407. HurricaneDean07
1:25 PM GMT on November 11, 2010
Quoting Jeff9641:


Yeah, Obama and his family are apparently gone as Yemen appears to behind this.

Al Qaeda in Yemen behind 'credible terrorist threat' against U.S., Obama says

http://news.blogs.cnn.com/2010/10/29/hazmat-incident-at-philadelphia-airport/
so apparently obama knew about this along time before we did.
The California Missile thing is just a plane, reported by FOX.
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
405. HurricaneDean07
1:16 PM GMT on November 11, 2010
Quoting Jeff9641:
Very Dangerous situation as bombs are being sent on planes to the US from Europe and the Middle East. Could be the very reason why a missile was launched off California.
This such a compact bombing plan. They must've planned this for months. THIS IS SO CRAZY! on veteran's day, i find this so ridiculously serious. i can't believe my eyes that this is all happening.
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
404. barbamz
1:15 PM GMT on November 11, 2010
And another portrait of this stormy lady with greetings from Germany. In a hurry, Barbara

Member Since: October 25, 2008 Posts: 43 Comments: 4997
402. barbamz
1:13 PM GMT on November 11, 2010
"Carmen" approaching us ...



Source: http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/realtime/single.php?T103151125
Member Since: October 25, 2008 Posts: 43 Comments: 4997
398. jurakantaino
1:03 PM GMT on November 11, 2010
Quoting greentortuloni:
Quoting Seastep:
Call me crazy, but I prefer a warm planet.

Cold is bad. Warm is good. Cold = less precipitable water. Warm = more precipitable water. More precipitable water = more life.

Just saying.


Even if a slightly warmer planet is acceptable, the problem is the speed of the change. This is like arguing that because the mean elevation of the earth is 100 meters above sea level(no idea what the actual value is), this descent is a good thing. If the descent (or ascent in this case) stops at a degree or two higher and some ice melts but no one gets hurt: okay, no big deal.

But what is going on is the equivalent of descending at 100 mph. There is nothing to stop it. The cycles from the original periods were counter balanced. There is as yet no counter balance to this swing.

I hope China or one of the other countries that is assuming the mantle of technological leadership from us will solve the problem. (I think with the Chinese investment in renewable energy, notably electric transportation, they are the most likely candidate now.) I just don't see America ever getting off it's fat butt to actually solve anything. We are too interested in fighting over scraps of political power to actually recognize the real problems, let alone solve them.
Agree with you a 100%
Member Since: July 31, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 730
396. HurricaneDean07
12:56 PM GMT on November 11, 2010
Morning All, Seems like possible Virginie is showing up on the hurricane models a lot better than puala and richard ever did. On the 00z GFS is also hinting at walter.
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
395. GeoffreyWPB
12:47 PM GMT on November 11, 2010
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10576
394. IKE
11:37 AM GMT on November 11, 2010
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 AM EST THU NOV 11 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
393. IKE
10:51 AM GMT on November 11, 2010
SYNOPSIS FOR CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC FROM 07N TO 22N
BETWEEN 55W AND 65W
430 AM EST THU NOV 11 2010

.SYNOPSIS...STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 22N62W TO 1010 MB LOW
PRES NEAR 21N63W THEN TO 12N71W. FRONT GRADUALLY MOVES E THROUGH
THE TROPICAL N ATLC AND NW THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH SAT
NIGHT TO 22N55W TO 18N62W TO 16N75W TO NEW 1010 MB LOW PRES NEAR
12N79W. FRONT DISSIPATES SUN AND THE WEAK LOW PRES REMAINS
STATIONARY THROUGH MON.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
392. PalmBeachWeather
10:02 AM GMT on November 11, 2010
Quoting TampaSpin:


Sarcasim......AGAIN AND AGAIN


TampaSpin...Now you are REALLY showing your butt...EVERYONE makes fun of Fox news, and he did put a j/k after his statement.
Member Since: October 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 5737
391. sforzando
9:50 AM GMT on November 11, 2010
The funny thing is that we in the UK get storms that are more intense (in pressure at least) than the "mega-storm" that caused all the fuss over the Midwest a couple of weeks ago, maybe half a dozen times a year - and we're likely to pass them off with "Oh, it's going to be a bit windy this afternoon."

The lowest pressure recorded in the UK was 927mb. Strange these Atlantic depressions aren't they?


Quoting CycloneUK:
Wow. 949mb low:



Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1
390. greentortuloni
9:07 AM GMT on November 11, 2010
Quoting Seastep:
Call me crazy, but I prefer a warm planet.

Cold is bad. Warm is good. Cold = less precipitable water. Warm = more precipitable water. More precipitable water = more life.

Just saying.


Even if a slightly warmer planet is acceptable, the problem is the speed of the change. This is like arguing that because the mean elevation of the earth is 100 meters above sea level(no idea what the actual value is), this descent is a good thing. If the descent (or ascent in this case) stops at a degree or two higher and some ice melts but no one gets hurt: okay, no big deal.

But what is going on is the equivalent of descending at 100 mph. There is nothing to stop it. The cycles from the original periods were counter balanced. There is as yet no counter balance to this swing.

I hope China or one of the other countries that is assuming the mantle of technological leadership from us will solve the problem. (I think with the Chinese investment in renewable energy, notably electric transportation, they are the most likely candidate now.) I just don't see America ever getting off it's fat butt to actually solve anything. We are too interested in fighting over scraps of political power to actually recognize the real problems, let alone solve them.
Member Since: June 5, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1220
389. tornadodude
8:28 AM GMT on November 11, 2010
something to watch on Friday

SPC AC 110601

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1201 AM CST THU NOV 11 2010

VALID 121200Z - 131200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS STILL INDICATE THAT A LARGE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD... WITH
A STRONG HIGH CENTER DEVELOPING 700 MILES OR SO WEST OF THE NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST. WITHIN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE PREVAILING
DOWNSTREAM SPLIT UPPER FLOW...BROAD TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL UNITED STATES. RIDGING IS
PROGGED TO BEGIN WEAKENING ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD...BUT A
SIGNIFICANT CLOSED LOW APPEARS LIKELY TO LINGER OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC...EAST OF SOUTH ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS.

THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INHIBIT BOUNDARY LAYER
MODIFICATION OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO... BUT
A FAIRLY SUBSTANTIVE INFLUX OF MOISTURE IS NOW BEGINNING TO DEVELOP
WITHIN AT LEAST A NARROW TONGUE OFF THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. LOWER 6OS SURFACE DEW POINTS PROBABLY WILL
ADVECT INTO MUCH OF CENTRAL OKLAHOMA TODAY...AND PERSIST INTO
FRIDAY...PRIOR TO THE SOUTHEASTWARD ADVANCEMENT OF A SURFACE FRONT
THROUGH MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL OCCUR IN RESPONSE TO THE NORTHEASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF A SURFACE WAVE ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS INTO
THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

WHILE IT STILL APPEARS THAT THIS WAVE DEVELOPMENT WILL REMAIN
WEAK...CONSIDERABLE VARIABILITY PERSISTS AMONG THE MODELS CONCERNING
THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE...AND AN ATTENDANT SIGNIFICANT REMNANT
MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE IMPULSE PROGGED TO ACCELERATE NORTHEAST OF THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THIS COULD HAVE SOME IMPACT ON THE CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL DURING THIS PERIOD. REGARDLESS...THOUGH...THE RELATIVELY
WEAK NATURE OF THE SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS SUGGESTS THAT THE RISK FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIMITED...PARTICULARLY WITH
DESTABILIZATION STILL PROGGED TO REMAIN RATHER WEAK.

...PARTS OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS...
DESPITE THE LIKELIHOOD THAT LAPSE RATES WILL NOT STEEPEN
SUFFICIENTLY TO SUPPORT CAPE MUCH MORE THAN 250 TO PERHAPS 500
J/KG...DUE TO THE TENDENCY OF THE MID-LEVEL FORCING TO LAG TO THE
COOL SIDE OF THE SURFACE FRONT...CONCERN STILL EXISTS FOR A WINDOW
OF OPPORTUNITY FOR PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION.
TIMING OF THE UPPER IMPULSE...AND FRONTAL PASSAGE...REGARDLESS OF
WHETHER THE FASTER OR SLOWER MODELS VERIFY...APPEARS FAVORABLE TO
ALLOW FOR THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER TO WARM AND WEAKLY DESTABILIZE
ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND PARTS OF ADJACENT SOUTHEAST
KANSAS/SOUTHWEST MISSOURI/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND NORTH CENTRAL
TEXAS. IF THIS OCCURS...SHEAR PROFILES WILL PROBABLY BE SUFFICIENT
FOR ORGANIZED STORM DEVELOPMENT...INCLUDING POTENTIAL FOR AN
ISOLATED SUPERCELL OR TWO.
ANY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS. STRONGER
MID-LEVEL FORCING LIKELY WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST...AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INFLOW BECOMES CUT OFF.

..KERR.. 11/11/2010

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 0827Z (3:27AM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8185
388. tornadodude
8:26 AM GMT on November 11, 2010
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8185
382. tornadodude
7:24 AM GMT on November 11, 2010
Quoting TomTaylor:
I'm calling for a South Atlantic Topical Storm for the up and coming tropical storm season in the southern hemisphere


that'd be cool
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8185
381. TomTaylor
6:53 AM GMT on November 11, 2010
I'm calling for a South Atlantic Topical Storm for the up and coming tropical storm season in the southern hemisphere
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 4357
380. TampaSpin
6:13 AM GMT on November 11, 2010
Quoting Orcasystems:


Blogger Believes Webcam Image Solves 'Missile' Mystery

Its from Fox news..so it has to be Gospel. j/k


Sarcasim......AGAIN AND AGAIN
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 177 Comments: 20430

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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.