Indonesian volcano may cut President's visit short
President Obama is in Jakarta, Indonesia, but that nation's most active volcano--Mount Merapi on Java--is spewing enough ash to potentially cut the President's visit short. Merapi (literally "Mountain of Fire" in Javanese) has been erupting since late October, and the mountain's pyroclastic flows and ash have been blamed for the deaths of over 150 Indonesians since the eruption began. The capital city of Jakarta lies about 250 miles west-northwest of Merapi, and received ash from the volcano over the weekend. At Jakarta's Soekarno-Hatta Airport, airlines canceled 36 flights on Saturday, and an additional 50 flights on Sunday. The airport handles about 900 flights per day. The Indonesian Disaster Management Office reported that volcanic ash from Merapi fell in Jakarta and some nearby areas such as Bogor and Puncak on Saturday night, but only in very light falls. No flights were canceled yesterday, as the ash cloud remained about 50 miles to the south of the city.
Figure 1. Signs of the eruption at Mount Merapi managed to puncture the persistent cloud cover over Java on November 5, 2010. The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA's Terra satellite captured this natural-color image the same day. The volcano's plume formed a V shape, fanning out to the west from the summit and casting shadows on the surrounding clouds below. According to the Volcanic Ash Advisory Center in Darwin, Australia, the ash plume rose to at least 55,000 feet (16 kilometers) in altitude and stretched 220 miles (350 km) to the west and southwest, as of 12:13 a.m. local time on November 6 (17:13 UTC, Nov 5). Image credit: NASA.
The winds today are blowing from east to west over the Merapi volcano, and are expected to continue this direction for the remainder of the day. According to the latest Volcanic ash advisory from the Darwin, Australia Volcanic Ash Advisory Center (Figure 2), the ash from Merapi extends about 140 miles to the west of the volcano, and is expected to remain just south of Jakarta today. However, the ash cloud is sufficiently close to the city that just a small change in wind direction could bring ash to Jakarta, which might shut down the airport. A run I performed using NOAA's HYSPLIT trajectory model (Figure 2, right side) shows the potential for ash to reach Jakarta if Merapi erupts continuously for 48 hours, beginning at 1am EST this morning. So, the President will have to keep a careful eye on Merapi today in case the ash cloud approaches Jakarta.
Figure 2. Latest volcanic ash advisory from the Darwin, Australia Volcanic Ash Advisory Center (left) predicts that ash from Merapi will stay just south of Jakarta today. NOAA's HYSPLIT trajectory model was run assuming a continuous 48-hour eruption of the volcano began at 1am EST this morning. That model predicts that the ash could from Merapi could come very close to Jakarta by 1am EST on Thursday.
Impact of Merapi on the climate
The amount of sulfur dioxide and ash that Merapi has thrown into the atmosphere thus far has been relatively minor as volcanic eruptions go, and I don't expect Merapi's eruption will cause a noticeable influence on the climate. As I discuss on our Volcanoes and climate web page, major volcanic eruptions in the tropics have, in the past, caused substantial cooling of Earth's climate by injecting large amounts of sulfur dioxide into the stratosphere. The most notable such eruption in recent history was in 1815 by the Indonesian volcano Tambora. The sulfur pumped by this eruption into the stratosphere dimmed sunlight so extensively that global temperatures fell by about 2°F (1°C) for 1 - 2 years afterward. This triggered the famed Year Without a Summer in 1816. Killing frosts and snow storms in May and June 1816 in Eastern Canada and New England caused widespread crop failures, and lake and river ice were observed as far south as Pennsylvania in July and August. Birger Lühr, a volcano researcher at the GFZ in Potsdam, Germany, commented in Der Spiegel magazine that Merapi has a magma reservoir triple the size of Tambora's. Lühr did not expect that the current eruption of Merapi would cause a massive climate-cooling event, but he did caution that the current cone of the volcano lies on top of the ruins of a more ancient crater, evidence that Merapi has had a cataclysmic eruption in the past.
Invest 93L in the Caribbean not currently a threat
An area of disturbed weather (Invest 93L) has developed in the central Caribbean, a few hundred miles south of the Dominican Republic and Puerto Rico. The heavy thunderstorm activity associated with 93L is rather limited, due in part to some dry air to the north. Wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots and SSTs are very warm, 29°C, so we will have to watch this area for signs of development. None of the reliable global forecast models for predicting tropical cyclone formation (GFS, NOGAPS, ECMWF, and UKMET) are developing 93L into a tropical depression over the coming week, and NHC is giving 93L a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday.
Figure 3. Morning satellite image of Invest 93L.
I'll have a new post Wednesday morning.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Seriously, enough with the politics! Geez.......
Now, over 320,000 people have had to flee from the activity, with over 200 people missing, including children lost in the chaos of the evacuations. If you want to try to keep an eye on the activity, there is a new webcam for Merapi that appears to be working, so check it out.
E. Klemetti
Yes I do. Here's one for getting his pardon taken care of:
How is the southshore these days? We had a frost couple mornings back!
360. doorman79
Was a few colder morning around 40 F, Monday was cold.
But I like the cold.
And hate the summer.
They way too Long.
Come on Chicklit, try it. It really is easy to pronounce. This is for you!
Heck I'll throw one in for the younger folks;)
Oh yeah, another good one thrown in.
Lightning strikes as Mount Merapi erupts, as seen from Ketep village in Magelang, Indonesia's Central Java province November 6, 2010. (REUTERS/Beawiharta) #
From Boston.comMtMerapiPhotos
Yep,
Thats da swamp for ya!
You weren't even alive then. How do you know about the Doors? LOL
I was taught the music of the Doors lol
Good music never dies, Why you think people still listen and study the likes of classical, or swing!
You found it. And a big Danke to you, too!
Are you signed in there? BTW the Merapi cam seems to be down again. As do the webicorders. :(
Because we're old????????? No, you are right, it doesn't die.
Read post 352. If you don't like Democrats, go take it somewhere else, not here.
My pleasure. Back in a bit.
Not so soon, u celebrators!!!!
Have read through the blog though.
It is much like this only about volcanic activity.
Your English is better than most English speakers' English.
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 05N50W TO 16N48W MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. THE WAVE REMAINS WITHIN BROAD CYCLONIC LOW-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS
THE EASTERN DEEP TROPICAL ATLC BETWEEN 45W-55W THAT COINCIDES
WITH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AS NOTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY. WHILE MOST OF THE CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH
CONVERGENCE WITHIN THE ITCZ TO THE SE OF THE WAVE AXIS...WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N-12N BETWEEN 47W-53W.
...........
CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED IN THE
NE CARIBBEAN NEAR 17N65W WITH INFLUENCE SPREADING WESTWARD TO
CENTRAL AMERICA AND EASTWARD TO 45W. BENEATH THIS DIFFLUENT
UPPER LEVEL FEATURE...A STATIONARY FRONT ENTERS THE BASIN NEAR
EASTERN PUERTO RICO AND EXTENDS SW TO 17N68W THEN INTO A 1007 MB
LOW CENTERED NEAR 15N68W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 14N-20N BETWEEN 63W-68W. WITH THE LOW
FORECAST TO DRIFT NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AND
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO LINGER IN THE VICINITY OF PUERTO
RICO AND THE MONA PASSAGE...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE
FLOODING WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACTS OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...
PUERTO RICO...AND THE US/UK VIRGIN ISLANDS. ELSEWHERE...THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN W OF 72W IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD
SURFACE RIDGE LOCATED IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH MOSTLY N TO NE
WINDS AND OVERALL STABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS FOR THE NW
CARIBBEAN AND A LARGE PORTION OF CENTRAL AMERICA THIS EVENING.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINS WELL NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA OFF
THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND NEAR 40N68W AND DIPS TROUGHING TO 30N
BETWEEN 62W-75W. THIS SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT MOVING SE INTO THE
REGION ANALYZED FROM 32N68W TO 31N78W WITH STRONGER NW WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT. FARTHER SE...THE REMNANT LOW OF TOMAS...A 1000
MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 31N57W CONTINUES TO RACE N-NE EXTENDING A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG 29N54W 25N54W 22N57W BECOMING STATIONARY
TO EASTERN PUERTO RICO NEAR 18N66W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
OCCURRING FROM 19N-29N BETWEEN 46W-53W WELL EAST OF THE FRONT...
WHILE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE LOCATED FROM
18N-21N BETWEEN 56W-61W AND S OF 21N BETWEEN 62W-68W. FARTHER
EAST...AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES MOVING SE OVER THE
EASTERN ATLC CENTERED NEAR 21N39W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS
FROM 17N-24N BETWEEN 36W-42W. THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION LOCATES
ON THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A
1024 MB HIGH CENTERED NW OF THE AZORES NEAR 41N34W. THIS RIDGE
EXTENDS OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN ATLC N OF 22N E OF 45W.
I'm not so sure she'd be able to; do they make tanks with training wheels?
I'm there constantly. Ever since Iceland. I'm easy to find. :)
It lacks a lot of what this blog now has, one reason I'm there more than here now. ;)
http://www.boston.com/bigpicture/2010/11/mount_merapis_eruptions.html
She's on the T&A ticket.
Good for stewardess, not so much for prez. unless you think you're going to get lucky.
Then you're just stupid, either way.
ROFLMAO Now that's funny. hahahahahaha
93L (gasp!)
IRLoopCarib
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