Indonesian volcano may cut President's visit short

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:01 PM GMT on November 09, 2010

Share this Blog
3
+

President Obama is in Jakarta, Indonesia, but that nation's most active volcano--Mount Merapi on Java--is spewing enough ash to potentially cut the President's visit short. Merapi (literally "Mountain of Fire" in Javanese) has been erupting since late October, and the mountain's pyroclastic flows and ash have been blamed for the deaths of over 150 Indonesians since the eruption began. The capital city of Jakarta lies about 250 miles west-northwest of Merapi, and received ash from the volcano over the weekend. At Jakarta's Soekarno-Hatta Airport, airlines canceled 36 flights on Saturday, and an additional 50 flights on Sunday. The airport handles about 900 flights per day. The Indonesian Disaster Management Office reported that volcanic ash from Merapi fell in Jakarta and some nearby areas such as Bogor and Puncak on Saturday night, but only in very light falls. No flights were canceled yesterday, as the ash cloud remained about 50 miles to the south of the city.


Figure 1. Signs of the eruption at Mount Merapi managed to puncture the persistent cloud cover over Java on November 5, 2010. The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA's Terra satellite captured this natural-color image the same day. The volcano's plume formed a V shape, fanning out to the west from the summit and casting shadows on the surrounding clouds below. According to the Volcanic Ash Advisory Center in Darwin, Australia, the ash plume rose to at least 55,000 feet (16 kilometers) in altitude and stretched 220 miles (350 km) to the west and southwest, as of 12:13 a.m. local time on November 6 (17:13 UTC, Nov 5). Image credit: NASA.

The winds today are blowing from east to west over the Merapi volcano, and are expected to continue this direction for the remainder of the day. According to the latest Volcanic ash advisory from the Darwin, Australia Volcanic Ash Advisory Center (Figure 2), the ash from Merapi extends about 140 miles to the west of the volcano, and is expected to remain just south of Jakarta today. However, the ash cloud is sufficiently close to the city that just a small change in wind direction could bring ash to Jakarta, which might shut down the airport. A run I performed using NOAA's HYSPLIT trajectory model (Figure 2, right side) shows the potential for ash to reach Jakarta if Merapi erupts continuously for 48 hours, beginning at 1am EST this morning. So, the President will have to keep a careful eye on Merapi today in case the ash cloud approaches Jakarta.


Figure 2. Latest volcanic ash advisory from the Darwin, Australia Volcanic Ash Advisory Center (left) predicts that ash from Merapi will stay just south of Jakarta today. NOAA's HYSPLIT trajectory model was run assuming a continuous 48-hour eruption of the volcano began at 1am EST this morning. That model predicts that the ash could from Merapi could come very close to Jakarta by 1am EST on Thursday.

Impact of Merapi on the climate
The amount of sulfur dioxide and ash that Merapi has thrown into the atmosphere thus far has been relatively minor as volcanic eruptions go, and I don't expect Merapi's eruption will cause a noticeable influence on the climate. As I discuss on our Volcanoes and climate web page, major volcanic eruptions in the tropics have, in the past, caused substantial cooling of Earth's climate by injecting large amounts of sulfur dioxide into the stratosphere. The most notable such eruption in recent history was in 1815 by the Indonesian volcano Tambora. The sulfur pumped by this eruption into the stratosphere dimmed sunlight so extensively that global temperatures fell by about 2°F (1°C) for 1 - 2 years afterward. This triggered the famed Year Without a Summer in 1816. Killing frosts and snow storms in May and June 1816 in Eastern Canada and New England caused widespread crop failures, and lake and river ice were observed as far south as Pennsylvania in July and August. Birger Lühr, a volcano researcher at the GFZ in Potsdam, Germany, commented in Der Spiegel magazine that Merapi has a magma reservoir triple the size of Tambora's. Lühr did not expect that the current eruption of Merapi would cause a massive climate-cooling event, but he did caution that the current cone of the volcano lies on top of the ruins of a more ancient crater, evidence that Merapi has had a cataclysmic eruption in the past.

Invest 93L in the Caribbean not currently a threat
An area of disturbed weather (Invest 93L) has developed in the central Caribbean, a few hundred miles south of the Dominican Republic and Puerto Rico. The heavy thunderstorm activity associated with 93L is rather limited, due in part to some dry air to the north. Wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots and SSTs are very warm, 29°C, so we will have to watch this area for signs of development. None of the reliable global forecast models for predicting tropical cyclone formation (GFS, NOGAPS, ECMWF, and UKMET) are developing 93L into a tropical depression over the coming week, and NHC is giving 93L a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday.


Figure 3. Morning satellite image of Invest 93L.

I'll have a new post Wednesday morning.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 397 - 347

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12Blog Index

Quoting Chicklit:

She's on the T&A ticket.
Good for stewardess, not so much for prez. unless you think you're going to get lucky.
Then you're just stupid, either way.


ROFLMAO Now that's funny. hahahahahaha
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Jeff9641:
DEMOCRATS VERSUS REPUBLICANS


1. Democrats buy most of the books that have been banned somewhere. Republicans form censorship committees and read them as a group.

2. Republicans consume three-fourths of all the rutabaga produced in this country. The remainder is thrown out.

3. Republicans usually wear hats and always clean their paint brushes.

4. Democrats give their worn-out clothes to those less fortunate. Republicans wear theirs.

5. Republicans employ exterminators. Democrats step on the bugs.

6. Democrats name their children after currently-popular sports figures, politicians, and entertainers. Republican children are named after their parents or grandparents, according to where the money is.

7. Democrats keep trying to cut down on smoking but are not successful. Neither are Republicans.

8. Republicans tend to keep their shades drawn, although there is seldom any reason why they should. Democrats ought to, but don't.

9. Republicans study the financial pages of the newspaper. Democrats put them in the bottom of the bird cage.

10. Most of the stuff alongside the road has been thrown out of car windows by Democrats.

11. Republicans raise dahlias, Dalmatians, and eyebrows. Democrats raise Airedales, kids, and taxes.

12. Democrats eat the fish they catch. Republicans hang them on the wall.

13. Republican boys date Democratic girls. They plan to marry Republican girls, but feel that they're entitled to a little fun first.

14. Democrats make plans and then do something else. Republicans follow the plans their grandfathers made.

15. Republicans sleep in twin beds--some even in separate rooms. That is why there are more Democrats.
This crap?.I've already had enough hearing about politics on T.V.I don't want to hear it now.I want to hear about weather.I'm at the point where the democrate,and republicans can kill each other.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting NavarreMark:


She'd look pretty good driving anything, regardless of your politics. LOL

http://www.boston.com/bigpicture/2010/11/mount_merapis_eruptions.html
She's on the T&A ticket.
Good for stewardess, not so much for prez. unless you think you're going to get lucky.
Then you're just stupid, either way.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Chicklit:
Hi Dan, no. Not a regular visitor.
Have read through the blog though.
It is much like this only about volcanic activity.


I'm there constantly. Ever since Iceland. I'm easy to find. :)
It lacks a lot of what this blog now has, one reason I'm there more than here now. ;)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Keith Olbermann back on the air tonight.
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10968
Quoting McBill:


Nah, I think Palin would look pretty good driving a tank.


I'm not so sure she'd be able to; do they make tanks with training wheels?
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13455
Hi Grothar, been there done that and still cannot pronounce it. There is a circle in Dante's hell for linguists who cannot grapple with and master a word.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 05N50W TO 16N48W MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. THE WAVE REMAINS WITHIN BROAD CYCLONIC LOW-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS
THE EASTERN DEEP TROPICAL ATLC BETWEEN 45W-55W THAT COINCIDES
WITH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AS NOTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY. WHILE MOST OF THE CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH
CONVERGENCE WITHIN THE ITCZ TO THE SE OF THE WAVE AXIS...WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N-12N BETWEEN 47W-53W.

...........

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED IN THE
NE CARIBBEAN NEAR 17N65W WITH INFLUENCE SPREADING WESTWARD TO
CENTRAL AMERICA AND EASTWARD TO 45W. BENEATH THIS DIFFLUENT
UPPER LEVEL FEATURE...A STATIONARY FRONT ENTERS THE BASIN NEAR
EASTERN PUERTO RICO AND EXTENDS SW TO 17N68W THEN INTO A 1007 MB
LOW CENTERED NEAR 15N68W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 14N-20N BETWEEN 63W-68W. WITH THE LOW
FORECAST TO DRIFT NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AND
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO LINGER IN THE VICINITY OF PUERTO
RICO AND THE MONA PASSAGE...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE
FLOODING WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACTS OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...
PUERTO RICO...AND THE US/UK VIRGIN ISLANDS. ELSEWHERE...THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN W OF 72W IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD
SURFACE RIDGE LOCATED IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH MOSTLY N TO NE
WINDS AND OVERALL STABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS FOR THE NW
CARIBBEAN AND A LARGE PORTION OF CENTRAL AMERICA THIS EVENING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINS WELL NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA OFF
THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND NEAR 40N68W AND DIPS TROUGHING TO 30N
BETWEEN 62W-75W. THIS SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT MOVING SE INTO THE
REGION ANALYZED FROM 32N68W TO 31N78W WITH STRONGER NW WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT. FARTHER SE...THE REMNANT LOW OF TOMAS...A 1000
MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 31N57W CONTINUES TO RACE N-NE EXTENDING A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG 29N54W 25N54W 22N57W BECOMING STATIONARY
TO EASTERN PUERTO RICO NEAR 18N66W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
OCCURRING FROM 19N-29N BETWEEN 46W-53W WELL EAST OF THE FRONT...
WHILE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE LOCATED FROM
18N-21N BETWEEN 56W-61W AND S OF 21N BETWEEN 62W-68W. FARTHER
EAST...AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES MOVING SE OVER THE
EASTERN ATLC CENTERED NEAR 21N39W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS
FROM 17N-24N BETWEEN 36W-42W. THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION LOCATES
ON THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A
1024 MB HIGH CENTERED NW OF THE AZORES NEAR 41N34W. THIS RIDGE
EXTENDS OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN ATLC N OF 22N E OF 45W.

Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21432
Quoting Grothar:


In German, though. My English is not that good. LOL It loses a lot in translation.


Your English is better than most English speakers' English.
Member Since: October 15, 2008 Posts: 11 Comments: 2305
Hi Dan, no. Not a regular visitor.
Have read through the blog though.
It is much like this only about volcanic activity.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


Not so soon, u celebrators!!!!
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21432
Quoting Grothar:


You found it. And a big Danke to you, too!


My pleasure. Back in a bit.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Jeff9641:
DEMOCRATS VERSUS REPUBLICANS


1. Democrats buy most of the books that have been banned somewhere. Republicans form censorship committees and read them as a group.

2. Republicans consume three-fourths of all the rutabaga produced in this country. The remainder is thrown out.

3. Republicans usually wear hats and always clean their paint brushes.

4. Democrats give their worn-out clothes to those less fortunate. Republicans wear theirs.

5. Republicans employ exterminators. Democrats step on the bugs.

6. Democrats name their children after currently-popular sports figures, politicians, and entertainers. Republican children are named after their parents or grandparents, according to where the money is.

7. Democrats keep trying to cut down on smoking but are not successful. Neither are Republicans.

8. Republicans tend to keep their shades drawn, although there is seldom any reason why they should. Democrats ought to, but don't.

9. Republicans study the financial pages of the newspaper. Democrats put them in the bottom of the bird cage.

10. Most of the stuff alongside the road has been thrown out of car windows by Democrats.

11. Republicans raise dahlias, Dalmatians, and eyebrows. Democrats raise Airedales, kids, and taxes.

12. Democrats eat the fish they catch. Republicans hang them on the wall.

13. Republican boys date Democratic girls. They plan to marry Republican girls, but feel that they're entitled to a little fun first.

14. Democrats make plans and then do something else. Republicans follow the plans their grandfathers made.

15. Republicans sleep in twin beds--some even in separate rooms. That is why there are more Democrats.


Read post 352. If you don't like Democrats, go take it somewhere else, not here.
Member Since: October 8, 2008 Posts: 14 Comments: 4553
Quoting doorman79:


Good music never dies, Why you think people still listen and study the likes of classical, or swing!


Because we're old????????? No, you are right, it doesn't die.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Chicklit:
Erik Klemetti, from whose blog we scarfed pictures during the Icelandic eruption of E-with-the-unpronounceable-name, has moved his blog to here Link.


Are you signed in there? BTW the Merapi cam seems to be down again. As do the webicorders. :(
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Tropwx... u left out religious debate... lol... but I get ur point...
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21432
Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:



Done.



You found it. And a big Danke to you, too!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Grothar:


You weren't even alive then. How do you know about the Doors? LOL


Good music never dies, Why you think people still listen and study the likes of classical, or swing!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Grothar:


You weren't even alive then. How do you know about the Doors? LOL


I was taught the music of the Doors lol
Member Since: October 8, 2008 Posts: 14 Comments: 4553
I love the way Sony has decided everyone in the Caribbean is a criminal....
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21432
Aye.......CAN WE PLEASE GET BACK TO WEATHER?!?!

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31417
Quoting caneswatch:


Yes I do. Here's one for getting his pardon taken care of:



You weren't even alive then. How do you know about the Doors? LOL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Patrap:

360. doorman79


Was a few colder morning around 40 F, Monday was cold.

But I like the cold.

And hate the summer.

They way too Long.


Yep,

Thats da swamp for ya!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


Lightning strikes as Mount Merapi erupts, as seen from Ketep village in Magelang, Indonesia's Central Java province November 6, 2010. (REUTERS/Beawiharta) #


From Boston.comMtMerapiPhotos
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting doorman79:
Link

Heck I'll throw one in for the younger folks;)


Oh yeah, another good one thrown in.
Member Since: October 8, 2008 Posts: 14 Comments: 4553
Link

Heck I'll throw one in for the younger folks;)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Chicklit:
Erik Klemetti, from whose blog we scarfed pictures during the Icelandic eruption of E-with-the-unpronounceable-name, has moved his blog to here Link.


Come on Chicklit, try it. It really is easy to pronounce. This is for you!



Member Since: Posts: Comments:

360. doorman79


Was a few colder morning around 40 F, Monday was cold.

But I like the cold.

And hate the summer.

They way too Long.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127536
Evening Pat,

How is the southshore these days? We had a frost couple mornings back!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Grothar:


Only if you have a good song to embed!!!!!!


Yes I do. Here's one for getting his pardon taken care of:

Member Since: October 8, 2008 Posts: 14 Comments: 4553
Happy Festivus !
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127536
Quoting hurristat:
Interestingly, the TPR for TD 5 only has it as a TD for 12 hours...
I think Td 5 was the one that formed off Fla's west Coast! If that's the one we picked up more rain from that system then we did from Bonnie!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Greyelf:

Wow. I thought I was the only one that liked that song.
That is an absolutely GREAT song.... it was a big hit in England when it came out.... I had to learn about it from the Wings Greatest CD, but since then it's been one of my absolute FAVEs... really captures the nostalgia of the moment / time / place/ home... etc even though I have never been to Scotland... lol
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21432
Although explosions have become less frequent at Merapi, Indonesia over the past 24 hours...

Now, over 320,000 people have had to flee from the activity, with over 200 people missing, including children lost in the chaos of the evacuations. If you want to try to keep an eye on the activity, there is a new webcam for Merapi that appears to be working, so check it out.
E. Klemetti
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Jeff9641:


BYE BYE OBAMA


Seriously, enough with the politics! Geez.......
Member Since: October 8, 2008 Posts: 14 Comments: 4553
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Grothar:


Danke, Bord, viele Danke! I haven't heard that in years. Brings back some good memories.

Cool :O). The WU blog has erupted today, spewing anger, resentment and insults.

This makes the Indonesian volcano look like a tame kitty cat!!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Mpeg's Killed the Radio Blog
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127536
348. beell
Political Science - Randy Newman
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Grothar:


Knock, knock! Glad you liked it, door!


Who is there? lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 397 - 347

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.