Indonesian volcano may cut President's visit short
President Obama is in Jakarta, Indonesia, but that nation's most active volcano--Mount Merapi on Java--is spewing enough ash to potentially cut the President's visit short. Merapi (literally "Mountain of Fire" in Javanese) has been erupting since late October, and the mountain's pyroclastic flows and ash have been blamed for the deaths of over 150 Indonesians since the eruption began. The capital city of Jakarta lies about 250 miles west-northwest of Merapi, and received ash from the volcano over the weekend. At Jakarta's Soekarno-Hatta Airport, airlines canceled 36 flights on Saturday, and an additional 50 flights on Sunday. The airport handles about 900 flights per day. The Indonesian Disaster Management Office reported that volcanic ash from Merapi fell in Jakarta and some nearby areas such as Bogor and Puncak on Saturday night, but only in very light falls. No flights were canceled yesterday, as the ash cloud remained about 50 miles to the south of the city.
Figure 1. Signs of the eruption at Mount Merapi managed to puncture the persistent cloud cover over Java on November 5, 2010. The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA's Terra satellite captured this natural-color image the same day. The volcano's plume formed a V shape, fanning out to the west from the summit and casting shadows on the surrounding clouds below. According to the Volcanic Ash Advisory Center in Darwin, Australia, the ash plume rose to at least 55,000 feet (16 kilometers) in altitude and stretched 220 miles (350 km) to the west and southwest, as of 12:13 a.m. local time on November 6 (17:13 UTC, Nov 5). Image credit: NASA.
The winds today are blowing from east to west over the Merapi volcano, and are expected to continue this direction for the remainder of the day. According to the latest Volcanic ash advisory from the Darwin, Australia Volcanic Ash Advisory Center (Figure 2), the ash from Merapi extends about 140 miles to the west of the volcano, and is expected to remain just south of Jakarta today. However, the ash cloud is sufficiently close to the city that just a small change in wind direction could bring ash to Jakarta, which might shut down the airport. A run I performed using NOAA's HYSPLIT trajectory model (Figure 2, right side) shows the potential for ash to reach Jakarta if Merapi erupts continuously for 48 hours, beginning at 1am EST this morning. So, the President will have to keep a careful eye on Merapi today in case the ash cloud approaches Jakarta.
Figure 2. Latest volcanic ash advisory from the Darwin, Australia Volcanic Ash Advisory Center (left) predicts that ash from Merapi will stay just south of Jakarta today. NOAA's HYSPLIT trajectory model was run assuming a continuous 48-hour eruption of the volcano began at 1am EST this morning. That model predicts that the ash could from Merapi could come very close to Jakarta by 1am EST on Thursday.
Impact of Merapi on the climate
The amount of sulfur dioxide and ash that Merapi has thrown into the atmosphere thus far has been relatively minor as volcanic eruptions go, and I don't expect Merapi's eruption will cause a noticeable influence on the climate. As I discuss on our Volcanoes and climate web page, major volcanic eruptions in the tropics have, in the past, caused substantial cooling of Earth's climate by injecting large amounts of sulfur dioxide into the stratosphere. The most notable such eruption in recent history was in 1815 by the Indonesian volcano Tambora. The sulfur pumped by this eruption into the stratosphere dimmed sunlight so extensively that global temperatures fell by about 2°F (1°C) for 1 - 2 years afterward. This triggered the famed Year Without a Summer in 1816. Killing frosts and snow storms in May and June 1816 in Eastern Canada and New England caused widespread crop failures, and lake and river ice were observed as far south as Pennsylvania in July and August. Birger Lühr, a volcano researcher at the GFZ in Potsdam, Germany, commented in Der Spiegel magazine that Merapi has a magma reservoir triple the size of Tambora's. Lühr did not expect that the current eruption of Merapi would cause a massive climate-cooling event, but he did caution that the current cone of the volcano lies on top of the ruins of a more ancient crater, evidence that Merapi has had a cataclysmic eruption in the past.
Invest 93L in the Caribbean not currently a threat
An area of disturbed weather (Invest 93L) has developed in the central Caribbean, a few hundred miles south of the Dominican Republic and Puerto Rico. The heavy thunderstorm activity associated with 93L is rather limited, due in part to some dry air to the north. Wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots and SSTs are very warm, 29°C, so we will have to watch this area for signs of development. None of the reliable global forecast models for predicting tropical cyclone formation (GFS, NOGAPS, ECMWF, and UKMET) are developing 93L into a tropical depression over the coming week, and NHC is giving 93L a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday.
Figure 3. Morning satellite image of Invest 93L.
I'll have a new post Wednesday morning.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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I've updated my blog, which lists what I would like to do/acquire for next seasons storm chasing, I welcome any thoughts, ideas, suggestions, and criticism.
thanks!
blog
As far as religous editorials go, I am amazed how generally civil everyone was being. Yes, some people flew off the handle, but they calmed down fairly quickly, and I didn't see many irrational posts. I saw some charged emotions, but nothing completely off-the-charts.
Don't you realized that today is all about Haiti but weather.
Yes, Politics and Religion, the origin of all historical wars. It may be peaceful here, but only for the moment; then all heck can and will break loose. Human nature has not changed my friends.
And I just tossed in my $.02, too. I assume you have funds set aside for gas and potential repairs? (along with a reliable cell phone?)
Quotes of Twitter on Haiti, now we have cholera and civil unrest O(
haitinews2000: Student ethnology burning posters Jude Celestin and install, the street that passes in front of faculty, a coffin with the picture candidate units.
mediahacker: At least 544 dead from #cholera in #Haiti, according to latest figures from Ministry of Health.
Truer words have not been spoken. +1
... And the next stage of Haiti's decline begins.
replied to it ha
and yeah, I have some, but the majority of my time this winter will be spent working for my parents. I can make about $100 a night working for them at our steak house
agreed!
it's 72 here (:
The Central CONUS will pay for this warm spell. Notice all that cold air in Canada? Guess where it is going later this week?
but nobody cares about Rhode Island.....
haha just playing (:
back down to us, and accuweather notes potential for an ice storm across the upper midwest next week, guess we'll see
I'd be really interested in reading it, if you'd like to share, just send me a personal message
Seems 2 me what we r looking for as a way of running this blog is counterintuitive to "human nature" in some ways. Check out Golding's Lord of the Flies to see 1 writer's take on it.
This is why, despite its imperfections, the US is in some ways a surprising triumph of morality over immorality - good over evil. We don't have too many examples where the downtrodden are not only uplifted by the descendents of the trodders but also where the trodden upon don't rise up and destroy their oppressors and their descendents. I guess that's why I get depressed with the "them vs. us" talk sometimes... as long as it doesn't hit the US, it was a slow season....
I think this blog, despite its imperfections, has come a long way in moving towards tolerance of other viewpoints, and equally important, IMO, of using the scientific method more constructively.
Sure hope we can keep it up once the 2010 ATL season "goes south".... lol
People if you want to talk about society, health, humans rights,and/or hunger problems, please do another blog!!!!
this is a weather blog only!!!
yeah! it just because the 93L isn't in the GOM or near EC!!! HAHAHAHA
wishcasters!!!
haha no school!
Are you calling me a blob?
I'm heading to Bonaire, which is your neighbor...first time.
haha
where are you from?
It's only 79 here in Nassau... amazingly small gradient over that distance... but keep in mind temps in the intermtn west [northern tier] have been cold all day... doubt they got much above freezing, with snow flurries this a.m....
It's a dive trip, solely to Bonaire, though I guess it's possible we island hop over to Curacao for a day.
Do well, keep civility alive, etc....
Have a good afternoon, and sure hope whatever else forms out there [I think we're gonna get one more] doesn't do much damage....
L8r...
Actually, Reed is correct, and while the above post makes sense in very many ways, we sould not forget that we do live in an insular society. We, whoever we may be, are about..well...us.
This is a nation under God. That is the Christian God, and while we have become tolerant, very much and rightly so of the other beautiful people and their beliefs, this is still a Christian country under a Christian God with what is supposed to be a God fearing president and government that makes decisions accordingly. That is STILL the constitution.
You thinking taking God out od schools has helped?
Well, do ya?
Yep, deciding on time of year back then, what a memory! Decided to wait until November due to the active hurricane season, only to have Bonaire and Curacao buzzed last week. It would have been safer in early September!!!! Sheesh..
Oh sorry...i wasn't sure what neck on the woods really meant... i thought you were talking about more rain heading to the island.
An American expression, apparently. How are things on Curacao? Would it be wise to avoid visiting for a day?
I don't want to get into a prolonged debate, but the Supreme Court stated that there should be a separation of Church and State. There is no imperative for our presidents to be Christian, but as the majority of the electorate is Christian, most of our presidents are Christian. Not all have been. Thomas Jefferson, the author of the Declaration of Independence, was either deist or agnostic. And James Madison, the main architect of the Constitution, was not openly religious, he chose to keep to himself, so he's not necessarily Christian.
And for as long as public schooling has been instituted, public schools have been secular. I would love to have a religion class, where everyone learns what the religions of the world believe, but I don't think that Christianity should be taught, as not everyone is Christian, and as the US is not, in principle, a Christian nation. The US is a secular country.
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