Indonesian volcano may cut President's visit short

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:01 PM GMT on November 09, 2010

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President Obama is in Jakarta, Indonesia, but that nation's most active volcano--Mount Merapi on Java--is spewing enough ash to potentially cut the President's visit short. Merapi (literally "Mountain of Fire" in Javanese) has been erupting since late October, and the mountain's pyroclastic flows and ash have been blamed for the deaths of over 150 Indonesians since the eruption began. The capital city of Jakarta lies about 250 miles west-northwest of Merapi, and received ash from the volcano over the weekend. At Jakarta's Soekarno-Hatta Airport, airlines canceled 36 flights on Saturday, and an additional 50 flights on Sunday. The airport handles about 900 flights per day. The Indonesian Disaster Management Office reported that volcanic ash from Merapi fell in Jakarta and some nearby areas such as Bogor and Puncak on Saturday night, but only in very light falls. No flights were canceled yesterday, as the ash cloud remained about 50 miles to the south of the city.


Figure 1. Signs of the eruption at Mount Merapi managed to puncture the persistent cloud cover over Java on November 5, 2010. The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA's Terra satellite captured this natural-color image the same day. The volcano's plume formed a V shape, fanning out to the west from the summit and casting shadows on the surrounding clouds below. According to the Volcanic Ash Advisory Center in Darwin, Australia, the ash plume rose to at least 55,000 feet (16 kilometers) in altitude and stretched 220 miles (350 km) to the west and southwest, as of 12:13 a.m. local time on November 6 (17:13 UTC, Nov 5). Image credit: NASA.

The winds today are blowing from east to west over the Merapi volcano, and are expected to continue this direction for the remainder of the day. According to the latest Volcanic ash advisory from the Darwin, Australia Volcanic Ash Advisory Center (Figure 2), the ash from Merapi extends about 140 miles to the west of the volcano, and is expected to remain just south of Jakarta today. However, the ash cloud is sufficiently close to the city that just a small change in wind direction could bring ash to Jakarta, which might shut down the airport. A run I performed using NOAA's HYSPLIT trajectory model (Figure 2, right side) shows the potential for ash to reach Jakarta if Merapi erupts continuously for 48 hours, beginning at 1am EST this morning. So, the President will have to keep a careful eye on Merapi today in case the ash cloud approaches Jakarta.


Figure 2. Latest volcanic ash advisory from the Darwin, Australia Volcanic Ash Advisory Center (left) predicts that ash from Merapi will stay just south of Jakarta today. NOAA's HYSPLIT trajectory model was run assuming a continuous 48-hour eruption of the volcano began at 1am EST this morning. That model predicts that the ash could from Merapi could come very close to Jakarta by 1am EST on Thursday.

Impact of Merapi on the climate
The amount of sulfur dioxide and ash that Merapi has thrown into the atmosphere thus far has been relatively minor as volcanic eruptions go, and I don't expect Merapi's eruption will cause a noticeable influence on the climate. As I discuss on our Volcanoes and climate web page, major volcanic eruptions in the tropics have, in the past, caused substantial cooling of Earth's climate by injecting large amounts of sulfur dioxide into the stratosphere. The most notable such eruption in recent history was in 1815 by the Indonesian volcano Tambora. The sulfur pumped by this eruption into the stratosphere dimmed sunlight so extensively that global temperatures fell by about 2°F (1°C) for 1 - 2 years afterward. This triggered the famed Year Without a Summer in 1816. Killing frosts and snow storms in May and June 1816 in Eastern Canada and New England caused widespread crop failures, and lake and river ice were observed as far south as Pennsylvania in July and August. Birger Lühr, a volcano researcher at the GFZ in Potsdam, Germany, commented in Der Spiegel magazine that Merapi has a magma reservoir triple the size of Tambora's. Lühr did not expect that the current eruption of Merapi would cause a massive climate-cooling event, but he did caution that the current cone of the volcano lies on top of the ruins of a more ancient crater, evidence that Merapi has had a cataclysmic eruption in the past.

Invest 93L in the Caribbean not currently a threat
An area of disturbed weather (Invest 93L) has developed in the central Caribbean, a few hundred miles south of the Dominican Republic and Puerto Rico. The heavy thunderstorm activity associated with 93L is rather limited, due in part to some dry air to the north. Wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots and SSTs are very warm, 29°C, so we will have to watch this area for signs of development. None of the reliable global forecast models for predicting tropical cyclone formation (GFS, NOGAPS, ECMWF, and UKMET) are developing 93L into a tropical depression over the coming week, and NHC is giving 93L a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday.


Figure 3. Morning satellite image of Invest 93L.

I'll have a new post Wednesday morning.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:


Seems that 93L is musically influenced.... by Spectrum 1 -
Tommy Bolin / Billy Cobham-

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Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:


I'm cool, D. I don't suffer fools gladly, but I will wait till the wheel turns. How's it going?


Doing well, thanks. I think the music and little bit of interjected weather is way more entertaining than the earlier religion/political verbiage.
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Quoting KoritheMan:


+100


Thanks kori even though my post vanished. Hope you have a great holiday season. Me and the wife are expecting a baby girl next april so that and some new possible job offers at my local WFO has me really excited. again thanks for taking the time to read my post. adrian
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Quoting hurricane23:
Thought i'd put out some thoughts on this season sst's steering etc....

THe Azores high (located near Africa and in the Far Eastern Atlantic) was much much stronger than the Bermuda ridge to the west. The ridge over the SE US and the Azores ridge in the East Atlantic created a weakness inbetween which meant any storm was more likely bound for Bermuda, and not the US. As the season grew on, the Azores ridge got stronger, thus forcing the tracks closer, but still not directly at the US. Early summer setup was impressive with SST, but a BUILDING Nina is a lot different than an EXISTING Nina going into summer. Note the quiet start then rapid mid-late season as nina emerged. Simply put, the Atlantic was still very much in a Nino state in MAY-JUNE and early July with weakening shear as we entered the heart of the season.

2011 will have an existing Nina to start, and still in a positive AMO phase in the Atlantic meaning what? Another above normal season is likely in 2011, and again....look at years where NIna was firmly established (so-called 2nd yr Ninas) and the results are quite different in terms of landfall but still in the 15Named + category.

adrian


+100
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Back to weather.... matters...


Frank Marino one of the most underated guitarists
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Quoting DontAnnoyMe:


Hey Vet - don't let it get to ya. There's been more insulting comments on the blog today ;-)


I'm cool, D. I don't suffer fools gladly, but I will wait till the wheel turns. How's it going?
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Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:


Are we all properly chastised? Wrong crowd? I am a bit ticked off.


Hey Vet - don't let it get to ya. There's been more insulting comments on the blog today ;-)
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whats going on with the page its all messed up
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 55984
Quoting sunlinepr:


I've seen McLaughin, Chick Correa - Jack DeJohnette was Recently in the Heinnk Jazz Fest here in PR)


Saw Corea with Gary Burton back in the early 80s - woweee, what a pair they were!
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Are we all properly chastised? Wrong crowd? I am a bit ticked off.
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Quoting DontAnnoyMe:
Meanwhile...



Super tune
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Meanwhile...

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Quoting washingtonian115:
It would appear that the wrong crowd is on tonight.So I'm just going to kindly leave now.Don't wanna be stuck in here....



The wrong crowd. eh? The one who voiced this drivel is gone. Coward.
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Quoting washingtonian115:
It would appear that the wrong crowd is on tonight.So I'm just going to kindly leave now.Don't wanna be stuck in here....


Party pooper! j/k
We understand some only come here for weather related items, but when there's not much to talk about, anything goes. Please return tomorrow; maybe wx-related topics will be in vogue again.
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Quoting washingtonian115:
It would appear that the wrong crowd is on tonight.So I'm just going to kindly leave now.Don't wanna be stuck in here....


Really? Do tell why, please.
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It would appear that the wrong crowd is on tonight.So I'm just going to kindly leave now.Don't wanna be stuck in here....
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Quoting sunlinepr:


Some oldies I'm listening to... Now I'm into - Lou Reed from Rock & Roll Animal album...

Link



Good tune! If you'd like to keep the music going, look for Grillin's blog in the index. We share favorites and stuff there. No holds barred.
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Quoting Orcasystems:


the winds that worry us are the ones blowing off the mainland (Arctic Express), when they come of the pacific, its usually the Pineapple express.


"Arctic Express" and "Siberian Express," while pleasingly descriptive, are
colloquial, non-technical terms whose definitions have never been formally
or precisely stated -- and add "Pineapple Express" to the list, because it
often occurs simultaneously with the other two.
Those terms describe patterns of upper "steering winds" (generally 15,000 to
30,000 feet aloft) that direct surface air masses from the tropical Pacific
Ocean to Alaska (Pineapple Express), from the Alaskan/Canadian Arctic deep
into the Lower 48 (Arctic Express) or from eastern Siberia and the
Alaskan/Canadian Arctic similarly deep into the Lower 48 (Siberian Express).
"Siberian" implies an air-mass origin northward from Alaska and Canada.

Link


Thanks for the clarification.
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


pattern change coming

Yeah, we're shooting moisture from south of Mexico northward into the NW Territories, yeah, the poop is gonna hit the fan as the trough digs south & eastward!!!
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
building on rtn flow
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 55984


pattern change coming
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 55984
Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:




Kudos Sunline. If we're going music, I nominate Baker Street.


Sure the best
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Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:


Not ideal. I was thinking of downslope winds vs. upslope winds.


the winds that worry us are the ones blowing off the mainland (Arctic Express), when they come of the pacific, its usually the Pineapple express.


"Arctic Express" and "Siberian Express," while pleasingly descriptive, are
colloquial, non-technical terms whose definitions have never been formally
or precisely stated -- and add "Pineapple Express" to the list, because it
often occurs simultaneously with the other two.
Those terms describe patterns of upper "steering winds" (generally 15,000 to
30,000 feet aloft) that direct surface air masses from the tropical Pacific
Ocean to Alaska (Pineapple Express), from the Alaskan/Canadian Arctic deep
into the Lower 48 (Arctic Express) or from eastern Siberia and the
Alaskan/Canadian Arctic similarly deep into the Lower 48 (Siberian Express).
"Siberian" implies an air-mass origin northward from Alaska and Canada.

Link
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Quoting sunlinepr:



Jerry Rafferty - Right down the line
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Jerry Rafferty - Baker Street
Link




Kudos Sunline. If we're going music, I nominate Baker Street.
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Quoting Orcasystems:


They are calling for our winter temps to be from 1-3 degrees (Celsius) cooler this Winter.


Not ideal. I was thinking of downslope winds vs. upslope winds.
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Latest Examiner.com article on 93L for those who wanna take a break you're welcome to check it out
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Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
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Mt Merapi in Indonesia wreaking havoc!!!]
Mount Merapi appears from the Airport Adisumarmo, solo-Jateng
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Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:


If the wind does a 180, the golf should be good, at least for a while.


They are calling for our winter temps to be from 1-3 degrees (Celsius) cooler this Winter.
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Quoting Orcasystems:


keep it up and I am changing the name in comment #94 in my blog.


If the wind does a 180, the golf should be good, at least for a while.
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
but what if they come from the wrong direction all winter


keep it up and I am changing the name in comment #94 in my blog.
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Embedding disabled by request. Sorry folks, you'll have to click the link. No worries, just a good tune.

Junkyard, Simple Man.


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Quoting Orcasystems:


Just rain and wind... normally it misses us because of the rain shadow. Todays just came from the wrong direction.
but what if they come from the wrong direction all winter
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 55984
Complete Update






TSPIN BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
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Quoting Bordonaro:

The pic is post 444 looks like it has your name all over it!



Just rain and wind... normally it misses us because of the rain shadow. Todays just came from the wrong direction.
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Quoting Orcasystems:


Oh I agree 100%... I would love to see downtown Vancouver get a couple feet of snow... almost as good as Toronto getting a few feet :)

The pic is post 445 looks like it has your name all over it!

And when cold fronts get to the 19N latitude in November, it's gonna be a BADDDDD winter!
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
Quoting Orcasystems:


I thought we agreed you were not going to post that anymore?
don't worry things are coming together snow soon for all of the lakes and the east to right after this current warm up

here is current storm tracks

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 55984
King Crimson - I talk to the wind....

Said the straight man to the late man
Where have you been
I've been here and I've been there
And I've been in between.
I talk to the wind
My words are all carried away
I talk to the wind
The wind does not hear
The wind cannot hear.

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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


more on the way big fish much much more


I thought we agreed you were not going to post that anymore?
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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