Indonesian volcano may cut President's visit short

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:01 PM GMT on November 09, 2010

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President Obama is in Jakarta, Indonesia, but that nation's most active volcano--Mount Merapi on Java--is spewing enough ash to potentially cut the President's visit short. Merapi (literally "Mountain of Fire" in Javanese) has been erupting since late October, and the mountain's pyroclastic flows and ash have been blamed for the deaths of over 150 Indonesians since the eruption began. The capital city of Jakarta lies about 250 miles west-northwest of Merapi, and received ash from the volcano over the weekend. At Jakarta's Soekarno-Hatta Airport, airlines canceled 36 flights on Saturday, and an additional 50 flights on Sunday. The airport handles about 900 flights per day. The Indonesian Disaster Management Office reported that volcanic ash from Merapi fell in Jakarta and some nearby areas such as Bogor and Puncak on Saturday night, but only in very light falls. No flights were canceled yesterday, as the ash cloud remained about 50 miles to the south of the city.


Figure 1. Signs of the eruption at Mount Merapi managed to puncture the persistent cloud cover over Java on November 5, 2010. The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA's Terra satellite captured this natural-color image the same day. The volcano's plume formed a V shape, fanning out to the west from the summit and casting shadows on the surrounding clouds below. According to the Volcanic Ash Advisory Center in Darwin, Australia, the ash plume rose to at least 55,000 feet (16 kilometers) in altitude and stretched 220 miles (350 km) to the west and southwest, as of 12:13 a.m. local time on November 6 (17:13 UTC, Nov 5). Image credit: NASA.

The winds today are blowing from east to west over the Merapi volcano, and are expected to continue this direction for the remainder of the day. According to the latest Volcanic ash advisory from the Darwin, Australia Volcanic Ash Advisory Center (Figure 2), the ash from Merapi extends about 140 miles to the west of the volcano, and is expected to remain just south of Jakarta today. However, the ash cloud is sufficiently close to the city that just a small change in wind direction could bring ash to Jakarta, which might shut down the airport. A run I performed using NOAA's HYSPLIT trajectory model (Figure 2, right side) shows the potential for ash to reach Jakarta if Merapi erupts continuously for 48 hours, beginning at 1am EST this morning. So, the President will have to keep a careful eye on Merapi today in case the ash cloud approaches Jakarta.


Figure 2. Latest volcanic ash advisory from the Darwin, Australia Volcanic Ash Advisory Center (left) predicts that ash from Merapi will stay just south of Jakarta today. NOAA's HYSPLIT trajectory model was run assuming a continuous 48-hour eruption of the volcano began at 1am EST this morning. That model predicts that the ash could from Merapi could come very close to Jakarta by 1am EST on Thursday.

Impact of Merapi on the climate
The amount of sulfur dioxide and ash that Merapi has thrown into the atmosphere thus far has been relatively minor as volcanic eruptions go, and I don't expect Merapi's eruption will cause a noticeable influence on the climate. As I discuss on our Volcanoes and climate web page, major volcanic eruptions in the tropics have, in the past, caused substantial cooling of Earth's climate by injecting large amounts of sulfur dioxide into the stratosphere. The most notable such eruption in recent history was in 1815 by the Indonesian volcano Tambora. The sulfur pumped by this eruption into the stratosphere dimmed sunlight so extensively that global temperatures fell by about 2°F (1°C) for 1 - 2 years afterward. This triggered the famed Year Without a Summer in 1816. Killing frosts and snow storms in May and June 1816 in Eastern Canada and New England caused widespread crop failures, and lake and river ice were observed as far south as Pennsylvania in July and August. Birger Lühr, a volcano researcher at the GFZ in Potsdam, Germany, commented in Der Spiegel magazine that Merapi has a magma reservoir triple the size of Tambora's. Lühr did not expect that the current eruption of Merapi would cause a massive climate-cooling event, but he did caution that the current cone of the volcano lies on top of the ruins of a more ancient crater, evidence that Merapi has had a cataclysmic eruption in the past.

Invest 93L in the Caribbean not currently a threat
An area of disturbed weather (Invest 93L) has developed in the central Caribbean, a few hundred miles south of the Dominican Republic and Puerto Rico. The heavy thunderstorm activity associated with 93L is rather limited, due in part to some dry air to the north. Wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots and SSTs are very warm, 29°C, so we will have to watch this area for signs of development. None of the reliable global forecast models for predicting tropical cyclone formation (GFS, NOGAPS, ECMWF, and UKMET) are developing 93L into a tropical depression over the coming week, and NHC is giving 93L a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday.


Figure 3. Morning satellite image of Invest 93L.

I'll have a new post Wednesday morning.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting SunnyDaysFla:


I would guess that active bloggers are most often Type A personalities, who are prone to high blood pressure.


Then again that does not explain the people blogging from Mom's basement. LOL
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Quoting KerryInNOLA:
A recent study showed that regular blogger have a lower rate of Alzheimer's Disease but a higher rate of high blood pressure.


I would guess that active bloggers are most often Type A personalities, who are prone to high blood pressure.
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Quoting SunnyDaysFla:


That is a good thing, we always need to be open to new ideas and viewpoints, whether agreeing or not.


That we do.
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Quoting KerryInNOLA:
A recent study showed that regular blogger have a lower rate of Alzheimer's Disease but a higher rate of high blood pressure.


I think that's true, if I'm any indication. ;)
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Quoting KoritheMan:


Not through here no, but through other online outlets? Most definitely. I'm open-minded enough, unlike most, to admit when I'm wrong, and change my opinion accordingly.


That is a good thing, we always need to be open to new ideas and viewpoints, whether agreeing or not.
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Quoting KoritheMan:


Not through here no, but through other online outlets? Most definitely. I'm open-minded enough, unlike most, to admit when I'm wrong, and change my opinion accordingly.


I should also add that I change my mind in real life as well when the need arises. Also, I am not trying to place myself on a pedestal of superiority.
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Quoting SunnyDaysFla:


Be honest now. Have you ever changed your mind on any thing after commenting here? Decided your argument did not cut it?


Not through here no, but through other online outlets? Most definitely. I'm open-minded enough, unlike most, to admit when I'm wrong, and change my opinion accordingly.
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Quoting KoritheMan:


See, that's where I think you misunderstand. The purpose of debate isn't necessarily to change the other's mind, but rather, to test one's own convictions.


Be honest now. Have you ever changed your mind on any thing after commenting here? Decided your argument did not cut it?
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Quoting KerryInNOLA:
Yea, the political and religious stuff can get to be a bit annoying at times, especially on a blog where people come to escape some of that stuff. I like the GW talk alright, but it can be SO polarizing. I wish I could find an astronomy blog as diverse and active as this blog. Anyone know one? Hate to say it, but I am a little burnt out on the tropics right now.

I find following the storms and learning about forecasting totally fascintating, but I would not be sad to see the season over.
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Quoting SunnyDaysFla:
BTW, when there are no active systems, I find the petty disagreements highly amusing. And certainly no one is going to change someones opinion of religion, politics or even global warming with the quality of most (tho not all)
of the arguments presented here.


See, that's where I think you misunderstand. The purpose of debate isn't necessarily to change the other's mind, but rather, to test one's own convictions.
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BTW, when there are no active systems, I find the petty disagreements highly amusing. And certainly no one is going to change someones opinion of religion, politics or even global warming with the quality of most (tho not all)
of the arguments presented here.
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Quoting KoritheMan:


This is true, but I hope that's the only reason they flag them. Which something tells me, it's not.


It surely is abused.
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Quoting KoritheMan:


Oh, I realize now that you were talking to Jedkins, not me. Either way, my point still stands: I do value freedom of speech. As such, I will defend to death Jedkins' right to say what he wants to. Whoever flagged his posts, shame on you.


Agreed. Not sure about this flagging business. Can someone flag a post more than once? If so, that's crazy. I understand the flags also determine the quality of the post, which is selectable in the filters drop-down menu. Seems too subjective, that's why I always choose to view all - except those few trolls I have to ignore :-)
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Quoting SunnyDaysFla:
I rarely flag posts. I have not flagged any in a long time, certainly not today. That said people are fully within their rights to flag non-weather related posts that they feel are detrimental to this blog.


This is true, but I hope that's the only reason they flag them. Which something tells me, it's not.
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I rarely flag posts. I have not flagged any in a long time, certainly not today. That said people are fully within their rights to flag non-weather related posts that they feel are detrimental to this blog.
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Quoting KoritheMan:


You speak the truth.

I didn't get banned for anything. Not sure what you're referencing there.


Oh, I realize now that you were talking to Jedkins, not me. Either way, my point still stands: I do value freedom of speech. As such, I will defend to death Jedkins' right to say what he wants to. Whoever flagged his posts, shame on you.
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Quoting KerryInNOLA:
What exactly did you say to get banned? Remember, some on this blog as in life, are extremely sensitive ad can't take any form or ribbing without going berserk. Believe me, I know.


You speak the truth.

I didn't get banned for anything. Not sure what you're referencing there.
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Quoting Jedkins01:


Well I don't have conversations if people get irrational with me, have fun lol.


Show me where I'm being irrational?
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Quoting KoritheMan:


I may not oppose your god (kind of hard for me to oppose something I don't believe in, after all), but that doesn't change the fact that I still think you are crying persecution where it isn't warranted.

Are you really trying to insinuate that those who flagged your comments for deletion are those with anti-Christian sentiments? Really? REALLY?


Well I don't have conversations if people get irrational with me, have fun lol.
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Quoting Jeff9641:


There is some very very cold air coming south later next week. Enjoy the warm air now as some models are hinting at possible freezes in FL in about 10 days if we were to use the GFS. FL looks to get quite a bit of rain next followed by very cold and windy wx.



I believe it. La Nina hasn't exactly been effecting our weather in Florida as of late. Or at least La Nina hasn't produced the typical weather. Computer models are indicating a continued trend towards the weather we have had during this first chilly week of November. Some more heavy rainfall would certainly be nice too. I picked up 1.78 inches last Thursday, was extremely needed and finally broke the all time dry streak with a bang here.

We bottomed out at 44 here on Sunday morning, absolutely shockingly cold for Pinellas county this time of year, the high didn't even break 60 on Saturday the day before either...

Even now, its still 51 and quite cold, already below tonight's forecast low of 54, but no surprise because today's high hit only 71 when it was projected at 78. Cold air was forecast well this weekend but cold air is now holding a lot stronger then the rapid warm up that was forecast.
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Quoting Jedkins01:


Then the question is, why would you say persecution complex? That usually would mean referring to me as having some sort of psychological problem.


I may not oppose your god (kind of hard for me to oppose something I don't believe in, after all), but that doesn't change the fact that I still think you are crying persecution where it isn't warranted.

Are you really trying to insinuate that those who flagged your comments for deletion are those with anti-Christian sentiments? Really? REALLY?
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Quoting KoritheMan:


I don't oppose God.


Then the question is, why would you say persecution complex? That usually would mean referring to me as having some sort of psychological problem.
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Quoting Jedkins01:



Persecution complex? Man, its funny how just mentioning God to some people who oppose it makes some people so judgmental. Dude lighten up.


I don't oppose God.
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Quoting KoritheMan:


Low pressure could develop in the Caribbean in the next week or so.


Thank you...mmmm, yes, that would be very interesting.
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Quoting KoritheMan:


No offense, but that sounds an awful lot like a persecution complex to me.



Persecution complex? Man, its funny how just mentioning God to some people who oppose it makes some people so judgmental. Dude lighten up.
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Quoting Neapolitan:

Not me! As a long-time pastafarian, I answer only to the FSM, and am therefore subject to no such post-mortem reckoning.
Appropriate tropical weather-related image

:-)



Well whatever you believe my friend... Was just hoping you'd agree, but is a vast world lol.
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Quoting Jedkins01:


Good so far!

Its interesting how my comment about God and the Bible gets deleted, despite the fact I was peacefully trying to get everyone to get back to weather and stop fighting about politics. However, its also interesting how all the comments backing political views, and other religious beliefs or lack there of were not deleted, despite them being far more antagonistic then mine.

Sure seems like an obvious bias to me. Why? Probably because I mentioned all having to give an account to God, or too much mentioning of God Himself...

Either way, I don't give a crap, I will continue to to stand for what is right even if I do get banned for it...


BTW, as far as school detail, just dealing with the horry of calculus and chemistry lol. I'm loving my writing classes like world Literature though.

Other then that. As far as weather goes, climate predictions for Florida look wrong again. Well above average temps in November and well below normal rain as forecast sure aren't playing out too well now are they? lol


No offense, but that sounds an awful lot like a persecution complex to me.
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Quoting CaribbeanStorm:


Hello everyone, I am just checking in. What does this mean?


Low pressure could develop in the Caribbean in the next week or so.
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Quoting Jeff9641:


Good read Jed! How's school going?


Good so far!

Its interesting how my comment about God and the Bible gets deleted, despite the fact I was peacefully trying to get everyone to get back to weather and stop fighting about politics. However, its also interesting how all the comments backing political views, and other religious beliefs or lack there of were not deleted, despite them being far more antagonistic then mine.

Sure seems like an obvious bias to me. Why? Probably because I mentioned all having to give an account to God, or too much mentioning of God Himself...

Either way, I don't care, I will continue to to stand for what is right even if I do get banned for it... Everyone should have the right to give account to what they believe is true without there being bias towards someones specific belief.


BTW, as far as school detail, just dealing with the horry of calculus and chemistry lol. I'm loving my writing classes like world Literature though.

Other then that. As far as weather goes, climate predictions for Florida look wrong again. Well above average temps in November and well below normal rain as forecast sure aren't playing out too well now are they? lol
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Quoting sunlinepr:
Before bed, I checked the GFS model at 150hrs and look South of Jamaica...... Interesting



Nam also shows...



Hello everyone, I am just checking in. What does this mean?
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Before bed, I checked the GFS model at 150hrs and look South of Jamaica...... Interesting



Nam also shows...

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Gnite all

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Quoting tornadodude:


I just read on CNN that it is an optical illusion caused by a contrail from a commercial jet, although I remain a little skeptical


Quite interesting commentary there someone wrote:
I don't mind if they fired a missile going out of USA, I do mind if its coming to USA....
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I'm out for the night. Thanks for the good tunes, and the fun! Catch ya on the 'morrow.
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Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:


Nice!

Hope you like this one.




Sure, seen vid before.... Solid Les Paul sound

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Quoting sunlinepr:
Weird!! Mystery missile off U.S. coast ignites buzz

Now on Yahoo Link



I saw that this afternoon. No one takes responsibility for it. Odd, in the extreme.
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Quoting sunlinepr:
Weird!! Mystery missile off U.S. coast ignites buzz

Now on Yahoo Link



I just read on CNN that it is an optical illusion caused by a contrail from a commercial jet, although I remain a little skeptical
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Snowy out West

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Weird!! Mystery missile off U.S. coast ignites buzz

Now on Yahoo Link

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Winter Storm Watch

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
940 PM CST TUE NOV 9 2010

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
OVERNIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

...WINTER STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

.AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WILL BRING MUCH COLDER AIR AND ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL TO WESTERN
AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY... AND 4 TO 8 INCHES WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY.

NDZ003>005-011>013-021>023-025-101145-
/O.CON.KBIS.WS.A.0008.101111T0000Z-101112T0000Z/
RENVILLE-BOTTINEAU-ROLETTE-WARD-MCHENRY-PIERCE-MCLEAN-SHERIDAN-
WELLS-FOSTER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MOHALL...BOTTINEAU...ROLLA...MINOT...
TOWNER...RUGBY...GARRISON...MCCLUSKY...HARVEY...CARRINGTON
940 PM CST TUE NOV 9 2010

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING
THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING
THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

* A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY.

* POTENTIAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER
NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS ARE
CURRENTLY EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN WARD AND MCHENRY COUNTIES
INTO RENVILLE AND BOTTINEAU COUNTIES.

* ROADS MAY BECOME SNOW COVERED AND SLICK. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15
TO 25 MPH MAY CREATE AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW...AS
WELL AS REDUCED VISIBILITIES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST
FORECASTS.

&&

$$
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howdy everyone
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Quoting DontAnnoyMe:


Doing well, thanks. I think the music and little bit of interjected weather is way more entertaining than the earlier religion/political verbiage.


Glad to hear it. Agreed!

Sunline, I'm checking out your tune, as we speak.
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Quoting hurricane23:


Thanks kori even though my post vanished. Hope you have a great holiday season. Me and the wife are expecting a baby girl next april so that and some new possible job offers at my local WFO has me really excited. again thanks for taking the time to read my post. adrian


Oh wow! That's wonderful news! :)
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Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:


Seems that 93L is musically influenced.... by Spectrum 1 -
Tommy Bolin / Billy Cobham-

Link

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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