Indonesian volcano may cut President's visit short

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:01 PM GMT on November 09, 2010

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President Obama is in Jakarta, Indonesia, but that nation's most active volcano--Mount Merapi on Java--is spewing enough ash to potentially cut the President's visit short. Merapi (literally "Mountain of Fire" in Javanese) has been erupting since late October, and the mountain's pyroclastic flows and ash have been blamed for the deaths of over 150 Indonesians since the eruption began. The capital city of Jakarta lies about 250 miles west-northwest of Merapi, and received ash from the volcano over the weekend. At Jakarta's Soekarno-Hatta Airport, airlines canceled 36 flights on Saturday, and an additional 50 flights on Sunday. The airport handles about 900 flights per day. The Indonesian Disaster Management Office reported that volcanic ash from Merapi fell in Jakarta and some nearby areas such as Bogor and Puncak on Saturday night, but only in very light falls. No flights were canceled yesterday, as the ash cloud remained about 50 miles to the south of the city.


Figure 1. Signs of the eruption at Mount Merapi managed to puncture the persistent cloud cover over Java on November 5, 2010. The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA's Terra satellite captured this natural-color image the same day. The volcano's plume formed a V shape, fanning out to the west from the summit and casting shadows on the surrounding clouds below. According to the Volcanic Ash Advisory Center in Darwin, Australia, the ash plume rose to at least 55,000 feet (16 kilometers) in altitude and stretched 220 miles (350 km) to the west and southwest, as of 12:13 a.m. local time on November 6 (17:13 UTC, Nov 5). Image credit: NASA.

The winds today are blowing from east to west over the Merapi volcano, and are expected to continue this direction for the remainder of the day. According to the latest Volcanic ash advisory from the Darwin, Australia Volcanic Ash Advisory Center (Figure 2), the ash from Merapi extends about 140 miles to the west of the volcano, and is expected to remain just south of Jakarta today. However, the ash cloud is sufficiently close to the city that just a small change in wind direction could bring ash to Jakarta, which might shut down the airport. A run I performed using NOAA's HYSPLIT trajectory model (Figure 2, right side) shows the potential for ash to reach Jakarta if Merapi erupts continuously for 48 hours, beginning at 1am EST this morning. So, the President will have to keep a careful eye on Merapi today in case the ash cloud approaches Jakarta.


Figure 2. Latest volcanic ash advisory from the Darwin, Australia Volcanic Ash Advisory Center (left) predicts that ash from Merapi will stay just south of Jakarta today. NOAA's HYSPLIT trajectory model was run assuming a continuous 48-hour eruption of the volcano began at 1am EST this morning. That model predicts that the ash could from Merapi could come very close to Jakarta by 1am EST on Thursday.

Impact of Merapi on the climate
The amount of sulfur dioxide and ash that Merapi has thrown into the atmosphere thus far has been relatively minor as volcanic eruptions go, and I don't expect Merapi's eruption will cause a noticeable influence on the climate. As I discuss on our Volcanoes and climate web page, major volcanic eruptions in the tropics have, in the past, caused substantial cooling of Earth's climate by injecting large amounts of sulfur dioxide into the stratosphere. The most notable such eruption in recent history was in 1815 by the Indonesian volcano Tambora. The sulfur pumped by this eruption into the stratosphere dimmed sunlight so extensively that global temperatures fell by about 2°F (1°C) for 1 - 2 years afterward. This triggered the famed Year Without a Summer in 1816. Killing frosts and snow storms in May and June 1816 in Eastern Canada and New England caused widespread crop failures, and lake and river ice were observed as far south as Pennsylvania in July and August. Birger Lühr, a volcano researcher at the GFZ in Potsdam, Germany, commented in Der Spiegel magazine that Merapi has a magma reservoir triple the size of Tambora's. Lühr did not expect that the current eruption of Merapi would cause a massive climate-cooling event, but he did caution that the current cone of the volcano lies on top of the ruins of a more ancient crater, evidence that Merapi has had a cataclysmic eruption in the past.

Invest 93L in the Caribbean not currently a threat
An area of disturbed weather (Invest 93L) has developed in the central Caribbean, a few hundred miles south of the Dominican Republic and Puerto Rico. The heavy thunderstorm activity associated with 93L is rather limited, due in part to some dry air to the north. Wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots and SSTs are very warm, 29°C, so we will have to watch this area for signs of development. None of the reliable global forecast models for predicting tropical cyclone formation (GFS, NOGAPS, ECMWF, and UKMET) are developing 93L into a tropical depression over the coming week, and NHC is giving 93L a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday.


Figure 3. Morning satellite image of Invest 93L.

I'll have a new post Wednesday morning.

Jeff Masters

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95. stormpetrol BTW looks like 93l is moving NNE towards PR.

oops I was wrong thats just the clouds blowing in that direction looks as though the LLC is stationary or drifting NW around 15n/70.5W
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Quoting greentortuloni:
Doug, don't equate freedom of religion with secularism.

The point of seperation is freedom of religion. No offense, even if I am Christian, I don't want you to tell me what flavor of Christianity you accept in me. No one should come between me and whatever God I worship. The only way to have a coutnry that truly can worship with all of their soul is through freedom... which means seperation of the day to day rules made by man to organize society and those rules we look to for a higher meaning in our life.

+1000.

BTW looks like 93l is moving NNE towards PR.
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greentortuloni
This has to be one of the better comments on here this morning.


The glue that binds America together is not Christianity but religious tolerance,

BTW (not to you) I thought the motto of the US was E Pluribus Unum meaning Out of Many One. All races, all nationalities,all religions etc into one nation.
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Quoting PensacolaDoug:

What a load.

This country was founded on Christian principles. Thats a fact. Almost all of our Government buildings in Washington D.C. Have Bible quotations inscribed upon them ...Go read what's at the top of the Washington Monument for an example. Regardless of whether or not any of us are Christians, The Ten Commandments is a pretty good set of rules for people to live by.

So far as common sense goes, yes, the Ten Commandments are a decent set of rules. Some of them, anyway: don't murder, don't steal, don't lie, be nice to and respectful of your parents. Who could disagree with those? But some of the other bits are dicey; it's hard for some of us to get on board with the entire slate when parts implicitly allow slavery, or encourage multi-generational revenge.

But that's almost beside the point. The fact is, this country was not founded on Christian principles, much as modern revisionists might wish it were. The primary leaders back in the day--Washington, Jefferson, Franklin, Madison, Monroe, etc.--weren't bible-believing Christians, but rather deists, and deists, as you know, didn't believe in the virgin birth*, divinity, or resurrection of Jesus, the efficacy of prayer, the miracles of the Bible, or even the divine inspiration of the Bible; instead they believed in human reason as a reliable means of solving social and political problems, and belief in a supreme deity who created the universe to operate solely by natural laws, then removed himself entirely from the universe after creating it. That is, no supreme being had control over it, exerted no influence on natural phenomena, and gave no supernatural revelations to man.

* - Just a single example (and there are many more): in an 1823 letter to Adams, Jefferson wrote, "...the day will come when the mystical generation of Jesus, by the supreme being as his father in the womb of a virgin, will be classed with the fable of the generation of Minerva in the brain of Jupiter". Hardly the words of a devout bible believer, wouldn't you agree? ;-)

I agree with you on one thing, though, Doug: even AGW talk is better than this religious stuff. so back to weather for me...
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Quoting BahaHurican:

And thinking about seasonal numbers, anybody want to guess what our map would have looked like back in 1910 with the kind of activity we've had this year?

What, no takers?





Notice anything?
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Doug, don't equate freedom of religion with secularism.

The point of seperation is freedom of religion. No offense, even if I am Christian, I don't want you to tell me what flavor of Christianity you accept in me. No one should come between me and whatever God I worship. The only way to have a coutnry that truly can worship with all of their soul is through freedom... which means seperation of the day to day rules made by man to organize society and those rules we look to for a higher meaning in our life.
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Besides, what would you do with all the people who fought and died for this country who were of a different belief than you? Kill them? Kick them out?


LOL... reminds me of the "back to Africa" movement of the last century... I always wondered how pple who were only partly black i.e of African descent dealt with the non-African part.... cut it off and ship it to Europe? Leave it in Tennessee, where their Indian forbearers came from? Split their time between Liberia and Loch Lochy?

A little tolerance goes a long way.... lol
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Quoting largeeyes:


Will be down in your neck of the woods starting saturday...



What will be down in my neck of the woods starting saturday? 93L or that blob that will be soon approaching the windward islands?
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Well, i guess if that fought and died, you could just bury them... (with honor one hopes.)

I'll just get my hat...
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This country was founded on Christian principles. Thats a fact. Almost all of our Government buildings in Washington D.C. Have Bible quotations inscribed upon them ...Go read what's at the top of the Washington Monument for an example. Regardless of whether or not any of us are Christians, The Ten Commandments is a pretty good set of rules for people to live by.


The impetus of some of the colonies was freedom from religious persecution, which led to seperation of church and state when the colonies formalized their union. However, in a sense you are right in that most of the day to day law of the land is based on English common law, and to the extent that Christian principles are encoded in English common law, America has adopted Christian principles. (I won't argue if someone corrects me on this, in fact I won't argue at all.)

But America has had a huge influence from all religions from American Indian to Mormon to Asian and India(n) religions. The glue that binds America togather is not Christianity but religious tolerance, tolerance towards all except those who are intolerant. American culture, attitudes, and intelectual ideas have had major contributors who where not Christian. Most religions that are compatable with Democracy have some version of the 10 commandments at their heart.

Besides, what would you do with all the people who fought and died for this country who were of a different belief than you? Kill them? Kick them out?
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I don't expect any development from 93L !!!
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Proposed 28th Amendment to the United States Constitution:

"Congress shall make no law that applies to the citizens of the United States that does not apply equally to the Senators and/or Representatives; and, Congress shall make no law that applies to the Senators and/or Representatives that does not apply equally to the citizens of the United States


We will probably never give up our ideals which in my estimation is what makes our country great but do any of us disagree with this proposed amendment? If not, write your elected officials!
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82. JRRP

see you later
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Minnemike, I have been [+1] u all morning... some good comments.
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PDoug, just goes to the point that politicians are usually not the BEST examples of Christian values..... lol .... not matter what they say. Better to judge on what they DO....

Speaking of which. Any donations for Portlight? [Always good to get a plug in for the blog charity....]
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Quoting Jeff9641:


If someone falsely accuses me of something then I will state my point and retaliate. If you are saying I'm causing problems then you are wrong as I wasn't on all weekend and see a response from this guy that someone e-mailed me on here I was so mad that I could spit fire.
I don't think u need to "retaliate", especially if u r in the right to begin with.... But I really thought u guys had cleared up the difference of opinion.... my bad on that. I missed the original conversation, but I genuinely believe people should be careful of accusing others of being racist, terrorist, etc. I understand ur need to clear ur name in that context. But don't forget

"Be ye angry and sin not".

I hope u two get the matter sorted, in a GOOD way....
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this country was founded on the principles of the enlightenment... borrowed heavily from Non-Christian sources, Doug. Just because they were Christians, doesn't mean this government was founded on any religious criteria. Church and State separation is not a principle of Christianity, yet it's implementation is one of the most powerful success stories of our founding father's enlightened decision making.

what was i saying about catering information to match one's belief's?
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it's what made slavery possible in the New World despite the fact that the slave owners were good Catholics and Protestants..


I would argue that the "slave-owners" weren't good christians. Hypocrites, in fact.
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Doug, a lot of pple TALK about Christian principles; no so many of the talkers LIVE the principles.... it's what made slavery possible in the New World despite the fact that the slave owners were good Catholics and Protestants.... 's why the Bible suggests writing those principles on one's heart, not just on one's house....

And the Christian principle we need most on this blog is.... GOLDEN RULE... treat others the way u want to be treated....

Hmmmm.... trying to think of a wx-related tie-in 4 the golden rule.... lol
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Granted, this is mainly ITCZ, but interesting to see out there in mid-November....
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73. JRRP
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
so do ya think 93L will go to GOM
i bet someone does
lol

jajajajajaja
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68. Jeff9641 11:51 AM EST on November 09, 2010

Jeff, don't go there again. U made ur point; let it go now.

And this IMO supports TS's point yet again; some pple would like to make the problems the US faces about racism or even religious "holier-than-thou-ism". It's not at all the real issue. Really it isn't.
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Quoting largeeyes:


Will be down in your neck of the woods starting saturday...
Hey, I was wondering if u were still going.... r u cruising, or otherwise?
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Quoting Alan83:
I really hope that invest 93L stays away from Curacao!! We really don't need an extra drop of rain! We have had enough. Our soil is already very saturated!!


Will be down in your neck of the woods starting saturday...
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Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Quoting stormpetrol:

+100 Baha, I always smiled at GOP, though not my country, they are always ahead of the game when it comes to bigotry!!


Quoting Bahurricane:

LOL agreed. I think sometimes we have an advantage because our countries r so small... a little harder to get too full of urself when everybody knew where u grew up and went to school w/ u... lol.. u can think what u like, but pple generally laugh at ur foolishness...

You two genuinely need to read the history of the Civil-rights movement in America.
Nah, we're not talking about Old-School Republicans.... I know what history u r talking about.... just this current generation that seems to have forgotten that they're supposed to be doing more than lip-serving those values they r always spouting.... and how about the fact that the GOP keeps that historical perspective - e.g. the first black Senators / Representatives were REPUBLICANS from SOUTH CAROLINA - on the QT in modern times.... that's too progressive... too liberal..... lol
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Quoting hcubed:


I think a more accutate reading of this says that the current threshold of 26-28 degreesC (IIRC, could be wrong) will go up (requiring maybe 29-30 degrees before TC formation can occur).
Not disagreeing with this, just thinking it's more in line with Landsea's thinking [at least at first glance] than it is with other theories that suggest increased #s of TCs due to global warming. If ur threshold rises as SST averages rise, wouldn't that argue for similar #s of TCs?
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Quoting reedzone:


I'm not making a racial issue, it's a bout turning America into what it originally was, a nation of Freedom, Under God. It hurts us Christians when the president goes to other countries and bad mouths us, says we are not a Christian nation when it's right there in black and white that we were founded by our founding Fathers under God. I was happy to see Pelosi and some of the radicals get voted out, but I'm suspicious, as IKE said earlier, they may not get the job done, it's like a roller coaster. We need real people in office, not puppets, this including some of the republicans. I'm a conservative, and will vote against my party if I find that they don't comply with my values. So I guess the real answer is.. we'll see what happens in the next few years. Again, my opinion, my values, this is a blog that apparently Dr. Masters mentions about the president, so it's not off topic. Alot of you again will dissagree with me, but I have a right to state my opinion about the president. I do pray he changes and goes with the people, instead of siding with the government.


Have you heard of "freedom of religion"? It is in the constitution. So is separation of church and state unless you subscribe to the Christine O'Donnell college of constitutional scholars. Please don't classify us as purely a Christian nation. We are a religiously diverse nation which is one of the things that makes us great. Siding with the government? What does that mean? The government is made up of people too. I commend you on your willingness to think outside of party lines when it comes to voting.
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Quoting Neapolitan:

And it hurts atheists when folks say this is a Christian nation. It hurts Muslims, too. And Buddhists. And Jews. And Wiccans. And Hindus. And Jainists, Sikhs, Zoroasts, Shintoists, and American citizens practicing any of a hundred other religions..

The bottom line, Reed, is this: there's a big, beautiful world out there, and it's full of billions of beautiful people, the majority of whom do not look like you, live like you, talk like you, worship like you, or think like you...and who wouldn't want it any other way. The sooner you and others acknowledge that, the sooner we as a nation can move ahead and stay relevant in a world that demands we not be so insular and backward in our collective thinking.
You, Socrates and Joseph Campbell should get together for a brew....:)
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I really hope that invest 93L stays away from Curacao!! We really don't need an extra drop of rain! We have had enough. Our soil is already very saturated!!
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Quoting JugheadFL:


I Second that! The Photo of the lightning strikes has to be one of the best photos I have ever seen! I will take a hurricane anyday over a Volcano Eruption!


What is amazing is the value the farmers placed on their cattle so motivated them to remain in their homes while sending their families to safety. That made up the bulk killed by the pyroclastic flows.
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On a completely unrelated note: the NHC has released their storm report for TD5. The poor thing never made it beyond the TD stage, topping out with 30 knot winds (although as a long-lived remnant low--162 hours--it did manage to drop to 1007 millibars for a brief period).

(So far the NHC has released TCRs for TD2, TD5, TS Colin, and TS Fiona. The rest will follow over the coming weeks.)
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I have an off topic question(not politcal) will anything come of the blob in mid atlantic? Looks alot like tomas did!
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Quoting TampaSpin:
Peeps would love to turn this into a Racial issue about the President. ITS HIS AGENDA AND HIS POLICIES that are a failure as those that speak out against the other side try to turn it into Racism and that is too bad. Too bad as i wanted him to suceed, but it will be 4 and out. The US Citizens do not want to become like other Countries. THIS IS THE UNITED STATES.....


This has nothing to do with racism although you're delusional if you think racism doesn't exist and even moreso if you think none of it is directed at Obama.

Yeah, the Republicans agenda and policies were a smashing success during the last administration, weren't they? Gimme a freakin' break. We've gone from losing 750k jobs a month to creating jobs every month. Heck, Obama's created more jobs in his short time in office then Dumya did in his whole 8 years...unfortunately when he took office the job loss juggernaut was spiraling out of control. His or any other president's economic policies wouldn't take effect quickly enough to prevent that landslide from continuing so the unemployment rate is now a BIG problem. Considering the unbelievable mess he was left and his lack of experience, he's managed to accomplish quite a bit. He's not perfect and there are some areas where I've disagreed with him as well but don't start with the extremist view that he's ruined this country. Don't confuse yourself, it was the last president who ruined this country. I just can't stand the amnesia and revisionist history any longer.

Also, on another note, the only message sent in the last election was that this country is one of instant gratification. You don't fix an economic mess of this magnitude in 21 months. It took 8 years to make the mess and it always takes longer to clean up the mess than to create it.

Hundreds of millions of corporate dollars from undisclosed donors poured into GOP campaigns also helps send a message...

Sorry for the rant guys but the misinformation and extremism really ticks me off...
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Last comment this country use to be completely self sufficient and self reliant and minded it's own business in most respects unless absolutely forced into conflicts. Well president Eisenhower warned about the military industrial complex and Theodore Roosevelt warned about large corporations my type of Republican presidents if I was going to vote for one. But do to the relentless pounding by the corporately owned media the only thing bad in America are large unions. Absolute power corrupts absolutely. #1 saying in my book.
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The 2010 Atlantic Hurricane season still thinks it's September or October, now doesn't it?????
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People are using information to support their beliefs, when they should be using information to constantly re-generate beliefs. Media today exhibits an expertise in substantiating pre-existing notions by the information available, whether accurate or not. KOG, our overall society has not 'become so smart it's stupid', but rather we've collectively become so engrossed by informed beliefs it has made us stupid.

Smart is the ability to synthesize information to obtain greater perspective. The act of using information to substantiate any belief is the opposite of smart. Information is supposed to generate belief. That is the philosophy of science, and THE element that distinguishes it from religion.

Off topic rant for the day. Place care carefully, and consider all things regularly.
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Quoting PensacolaDoug:
That photo essay of the volcano going off is a real eye-opener. I can't even imagine being near somthing like that. Thanx for posting it Nea.


I Second that! The Photo of the lightning strikes has to be one of the best photos I have ever seen! I will take a hurricane anyday over a Volcano Eruption!
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Quoting stormpetrol:

+100 Baha, I always smiled at GOP, though not my country, they are always ahead of the game when it comes to bigotry!!


Quoting Bahurricane:

LOL agreed. I think sometimes we have an advantage because our countries r so small... a little harder to get too full of urself when everybody knew where u grew up and went to school w/ u... lol.. u can think what u like, but pple generally laugh at ur foolishness...

You two genuinely need to read the history of the Civil-rights movement in America.
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Quoting reedzone:


It hurts us Christians when the president goes to other countries and bad mouths us, says we are not a Christian nation

And it hurts atheists when folks say this is a Christian nation. It hurts Muslims, too. And Buddhists. And Jews. And Wiccans. And Hindus. And Jainists, Sikhs, Zoroasts, Shintoists, and American citizens practicing any of a hundred other religions..

The bottom line, Reed, is this: there's a big, beautiful world out there, and it's full of billions of beautiful people, the majority of whom do not look like you, live like you, talk like you, worship like you, or think like you...and who wouldn't want it any other way. The sooner you and others acknowledge that, the sooner we as a nation can move ahead and stay relevant in a world that demands we not be so insular and backward in our collective thinking.
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Quoting BahaHurican:
From the previous blog:

392. BahaHurican 10:08 AM EST on November 09, 2010
390. hulakai 10:02 AM EST on November 09, 2010
Thought some of you might find this interesting:

Very much so.... so this supports Landsea's view that we're more likely to see an increase in POWERFUL TCs than in TCs generally.

And thinking about seasonal numbers, anybody want to guess what our map would have looked like back in 1910 with the kind of activity we've had this year?



I think a more accurate reading of this says that the current threshold of 26-28 degreesC (IIRC, could be wrong) will go up (requiring maybe 29-30 degrees before TC formation can occur).
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Quoting BahaHurican:
Reed, I don't think he meant u... I think he's thinking more about the politicos who hate Obama only because he is black.... or who love Obama only because he is black.... it's like only seeing a busy season when the storms hit the US. But these people are distorting the political climate enough, at least IMO, to keep people from dealing with the REAL issues... the kinds of things Orca was talking about. IMO the American pple let the politicos highjack their revolution....


Have you noticed.. its the people from the outside looking in that see it so clearly. Maybe its because we do not have a political stake in it at all.

I could care less what party is in power... I really don't care. All I could see was the peoples will was there to fix a lot of things... and it was squandered.
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My last comment on this: My mother was talking the other day about how it is now IMPOSSIBLE for her to go to any store in the US and buy clothing that is made in the US.... she says she used to enjoy shopping in West Palm Beach back in the day because the clothing was well-made AMERICAN stuff... now even the high class stores sell clothing made in China, Taiwan, Indonesia, India, Costa Rica...

Need I say more?
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Well let's hope 93L will manage not to get Hispaniola or Puerto Rico too wet. It's really amazing how warm the SST are in the Caribbean. I hope the Republicans don't cut away at NOAA's budget next year. That would be frustrating to many of us, lol.

Democrats, and to some extent the Republicans, do what has been done over hundreds of years. Those in power see to their own self interests or to the 'party platform' that 'should' benefit the people. What I see are self serving politicians who try to shove party platforms down the peoples' throats. Has it always been like that? Perhaps. But I digress.

When will the season end? It appears we may have tropical activity through this month...and beyond!
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That photo essay of the volcano going off is a real eye-opener. I can't even imagine being near somthing like that. Thanx for posting it Nea.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.