Indonesian volcano may cut President's visit short
President Obama is in Jakarta, Indonesia, but that nation's most active volcano--Mount Merapi on Java--is spewing enough ash to potentially cut the President's visit short. Merapi (literally "Mountain of Fire" in Javanese) has been erupting since late October, and the mountain's pyroclastic flows and ash have been blamed for the deaths of over 150 Indonesians since the eruption began. The capital city of Jakarta lies about 250 miles west-northwest of Merapi, and received ash from the volcano over the weekend. At Jakarta's Soekarno-Hatta Airport, airlines canceled 36 flights on Saturday, and an additional 50 flights on Sunday. The airport handles about 900 flights per day. The Indonesian Disaster Management Office reported that volcanic ash from Merapi fell in Jakarta and some nearby areas such as Bogor and Puncak on Saturday night, but only in very light falls. No flights were canceled yesterday, as the ash cloud remained about 50 miles to the south of the city.
Figure 1. Signs of the eruption at Mount Merapi managed to puncture the persistent cloud cover over Java on November 5, 2010. The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA's Terra satellite captured this natural-color image the same day. The volcano's plume formed a V shape, fanning out to the west from the summit and casting shadows on the surrounding clouds below. According to the Volcanic Ash Advisory Center in Darwin, Australia, the ash plume rose to at least 55,000 feet (16 kilometers) in altitude and stretched 220 miles (350 km) to the west and southwest, as of 12:13 a.m. local time on November 6 (17:13 UTC, Nov 5). Image credit: NASA.
The winds today are blowing from east to west over the Merapi volcano, and are expected to continue this direction for the remainder of the day. According to the latest Volcanic ash advisory from the Darwin, Australia Volcanic Ash Advisory Center (Figure 2), the ash from Merapi extends about 140 miles to the west of the volcano, and is expected to remain just south of Jakarta today. However, the ash cloud is sufficiently close to the city that just a small change in wind direction could bring ash to Jakarta, which might shut down the airport. A run I performed using NOAA's HYSPLIT trajectory model (Figure 2, right side) shows the potential for ash to reach Jakarta if Merapi erupts continuously for 48 hours, beginning at 1am EST this morning. So, the President will have to keep a careful eye on Merapi today in case the ash cloud approaches Jakarta.
Figure 2. Latest volcanic ash advisory from the Darwin, Australia Volcanic Ash Advisory Center (left) predicts that ash from Merapi will stay just south of Jakarta today. NOAA's HYSPLIT trajectory model was run assuming a continuous 48-hour eruption of the volcano began at 1am EST this morning. That model predicts that the ash could from Merapi could come very close to Jakarta by 1am EST on Thursday.
Impact of Merapi on the climate
The amount of sulfur dioxide and ash that Merapi has thrown into the atmosphere thus far has been relatively minor as volcanic eruptions go, and I don't expect Merapi's eruption will cause a noticeable influence on the climate. As I discuss on our Volcanoes and climate web page, major volcanic eruptions in the tropics have, in the past, caused substantial cooling of Earth's climate by injecting large amounts of sulfur dioxide into the stratosphere. The most notable such eruption in recent history was in 1815 by the Indonesian volcano Tambora. The sulfur pumped by this eruption into the stratosphere dimmed sunlight so extensively that global temperatures fell by about 2°F (1°C) for 1 - 2 years afterward. This triggered the famed Year Without a Summer in 1816. Killing frosts and snow storms in May and June 1816 in Eastern Canada and New England caused widespread crop failures, and lake and river ice were observed as far south as Pennsylvania in July and August. Birger Lühr, a volcano researcher at the GFZ in Potsdam, Germany, commented in Der Spiegel magazine that Merapi has a magma reservoir triple the size of Tambora's. Lühr did not expect that the current eruption of Merapi would cause a massive climate-cooling event, but he did caution that the current cone of the volcano lies on top of the ruins of a more ancient crater, evidence that Merapi has had a cataclysmic eruption in the past.
Invest 93L in the Caribbean not currently a threat
An area of disturbed weather (Invest 93L) has developed in the central Caribbean, a few hundred miles south of the Dominican Republic and Puerto Rico. The heavy thunderstorm activity associated with 93L is rather limited, due in part to some dry air to the north. Wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots and SSTs are very warm, 29°C, so we will have to watch this area for signs of development. None of the reliable global forecast models for predicting tropical cyclone formation (GFS, NOGAPS, ECMWF, and UKMET) are developing 93L into a tropical depression over the coming week, and NHC is giving 93L a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday.
Figure 3. Morning satellite image of Invest 93L.
I'll have a new post Wednesday morning.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Just rain and wind... normally it misses us because of the rain shadow. Todays just came from the wrong direction.
TSPIN BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
Embedding disabled by request. Sorry folks, you'll have to click the link. No worries, just a good tune.
Junkyard, Simple Man.
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keep it up and I am changing the name in comment #94 in my blog.
If the wind does a 180, the golf should be good, at least for a while.
They are calling for our winter temps to be from 1-3 degrees (Celsius) cooler this Winter.
Mount Merapi appears from the Airport Adisumarmo, solo-Jateng
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Not ideal. I was thinking of downslope winds vs. upslope winds.
Kudos Sunline. If we're going music, I nominate Baker Street.
the winds that worry us are the ones blowing off the mainland (Arctic Express), when they come of the pacific, its usually the Pineapple express.
"Arctic Express" and "Siberian Express," while pleasingly descriptive, are
colloquial, non-technical terms whose definitions have never been formally
or precisely stated -- and add "Pineapple Express" to the list, because it
often occurs simultaneously with the other two.
Those terms describe patterns of upper "steering winds" (generally 15,000 to
30,000 feet aloft) that direct surface air masses from the tropical Pacific
Ocean to Alaska (Pineapple Express), from the Alaskan/Canadian Arctic deep
into the Lower 48 (Arctic Express) or from eastern Siberia and the
Alaskan/Canadian Arctic similarly deep into the Lower 48 (Siberian Express).
"Siberian" implies an air-mass origin northward from Alaska and Canada.
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Sure the best
pattern change coming
Yeah, we're shooting moisture from south of Mexico northward into the NW Territories, yeah, the poop is gonna hit the fan as the trough digs south & eastward!!!
Thanks for the clarification.
Good tune! If you'd like to keep the music going, look for Grillin's blog in the index. We share favorites and stuff there. No holds barred.
Really? Do tell why, please.
Party pooper! j/k
We understand some only come here for weather related items, but when there's not much to talk about, anything goes. Please return tomorrow; maybe wx-related topics will be in vogue again.
The wrong crowd. eh? The one who voiced this drivel is gone. Coward.
Super tune
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Are we all properly chastised? Wrong crowd? I am a bit ticked off.
Saw Corea with Gary Burton back in the early 80s - woweee, what a pair they were!
Hey Vet - don't let it get to ya. There's been more insulting comments on the blog today ;-)
I'm cool, D. I don't suffer fools gladly, but I will wait till the wheel turns. How's it going?
Frank Marino one of the most underated guitarists
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+100
Thanks kori even though my post vanished. Hope you have a great holiday season. Me and the wife are expecting a baby girl next april so that and some new possible job offers at my local WFO has me really excited. again thanks for taking the time to read my post. adrian
Doing well, thanks. I think the music and little bit of interjected weather is way more entertaining than the earlier religion/political verbiage.
Seems that 93L is musically influenced.... by Spectrum 1 -
Tommy Bolin / Billy Cobham-
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Oh wow! That's wonderful news! :)
Glad to hear it. Agreed!
Sunline, I'm checking out your tune, as we speak.
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
940 PM CST TUE NOV 9 2010
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
OVERNIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
...WINTER STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
.AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WILL BRING MUCH COLDER AIR AND ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL TO WESTERN
AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY... AND 4 TO 8 INCHES WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY.
NDZ003>005-011>013-021>023-025-101145-
/O.CON.KBIS.WS.A.0008.101111T0000Z-101112T0000Z/
RENVILLE-BOTTINEAU-ROLETTE-WARD-MCHENRY-PIERCE-MCLEAN-SHERIDAN-
WELLS-FOSTER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MOHALL...BOTTINEAU...ROLLA...MINOT...
TOWNER...RUGBY...GARRISON...MCCLUSKY...HARVEY...CARRINGTON
940 PM CST TUE NOV 9 2010
...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING
THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...
A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING
THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
* A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY.
* POTENTIAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER
NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS ARE
CURRENTLY EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN WARD AND MCHENRY COUNTIES
INTO RENVILLE AND BOTTINEAU COUNTIES.
* ROADS MAY BECOME SNOW COVERED AND SLICK. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15
TO 25 MPH MAY CREATE AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW...AS
WELL AS REDUCED VISIBILITIES.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST
FORECASTS.
&&
$$
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