After Tammy, what next?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:42 PM GMT on October 06, 2005

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Tropical Storm Tammy came ashore at 7 pm EDT last night near the Florida Georgia border with sustained winds of 50 mph, a storm surge of 1 - 3 feet, and torrential rains. Rainfall amounts across southeast Georgia and coastal sections of
southeast South Carolina have been in the 2 to 7 inch range, with 2 inches or less across interior South Carolina. The highest rainfall totals between 4 and 7 inches have occurred between Folly Beach and Darien. Additional rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches are possible today. While numerous instances of urban and small stream flooding have been observed, no major flooding damage has been reported from Tammy.

Figure 1. Estimated rainfall from the Jacksonville radar.

Tammy is being drawn westward across Georgia by an upper level low over the northern Gulf of Mexico, and is expected to dissipate tonight. A cold front is expected to arrive over the East Coast Friday,pulling the remains of Tammy northward up the front, drenching the entire East Coast.

Stan Jr.
The large area of thunderstorms that broke off from Stan yesterday is now a 1005 mb low pressure system over the Yucatan Channel between Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula. Satellite imagery shows a very disorganized system with the main cloudiness well east and north of the center. Not much upper-level outflow is apparent. Wind shear of about 10 knots from westerly upper-level winds is pushing the convection away from the center, towards the east. Observations from Cuban radar confirm that this a poorly organized system with a few bands of heavy showers over western Cuba.

This system is expected to push northward the next two days, spreading heavy rain and high winds over western Cuba, the Florida Keys, and the Florida Peninsula. Development into a tropical depression today is not likely, given the system's current disorganized state. Florida can expect conditions similar to those a tropical depression or weak tropical storm would bring, however, with rain amounts of 3 - 5 inches and high winds. The system will continue to the northeast and drench the areas already dumped on by Tropical Storm Tammy, and the entire East Coast will need to be concerned about flooding problems from this one-two punch.

Figure 2. BAMM and GFDL model tracks for Stan Jr.--the tropical disturbance off of the Yucatan.

The death toll from Hurricane Stan now stands at 162, including 62 deaths in El Salvador, 79 in Guatemala, and 21 in Nicaragua, Mexico, and Honduras. Unconfirmed reports from remote villages in Guatemala indicate that hundred more may be dead. Extensive deforestation in the high mountains where Stan's heavy rains fell contributed significantly to this disaster; the lack of tree cover allowed floodwaters to rampage down the mountainsides unchecked. The remnants of Stan will continue to pour heavy rains on this area today, but should ease off Friday.

Stan, who barely made it to Category 1 strength for a few hours, will likely have his name retired, thanks to this unfolding disaster. This would make the Hurricane Season of 2005 the first season to have five names retired (1955, 1995, and 2004 all had four storm names retired).

Figure 3. Stan's observed rainfall from the NASA TRMM satellite. Rainfall amounts as high as 400 mm (16 inches) were observed along the coast.

Stan III?
The remants of Stan have formed a large area of intense convection near the Mexican coast by Acapulco amd Puerto Vallarta, and appear likely to spin up into a new tropical depression today. This storm will track northwestward and threaten Baja and much of the Mexican Pacific coast.

A tropical disturbance near 8N 43W, about 1200 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands, has developed a low level circulation, impressive deep convection, and the beginnings of an upper-level outflow channel to the north. About 10 knots of shear from strong westerly winds is affecting the disturbance, but models indicate that this shear may decrease over the next day or two. The disturbance is moving west at 15 - 20 mph. A more northwestery motion is likely by Saturday, thanks to the steering influence of a large upper-level low pressure system at 25N 60W.

The disturbance is pretty far south for development to occur, and I don't expect a tropical depression here today. Development is more likely Friday or Saturday, when the disturbance will be further from the equator and can take advantage of the Earth's spin to help it develop.

Figure 4. BAMM and GFDL model tracks for the mid-Atlantic disturbance.

Elsewhere in the tropics
Conditions are expected to be unusually conducive for tropical storm formation throughout the Atlantic for the next 10 days, and it is quite likely we'll make it to the end of the alphabet by mid-October. When that happens, we go Greek--Alpha, Beta, and hopefully not much further into the Greek Alphabet!

Jeff Masters

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116. seflagamma
11:10 AM EST on October 06, 2005
noticed my last posting on the prev one afterwards for awhile; even had a couple of meetings in between... then realized new update!
getting caught up on your postings before next session of meetings....things in Weston, HOT & MUGGY, off and on showers here, nothing serious.

Is "son of stan" breaking up or re organizing somewhere else? large area of rain south of FL is no longer there??
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115. stormydee
4:25 PM GMT on October 06, 2005
no keri, got that one, but thanks...its the one like that but it zooms in on certain storms and the pic is clearer with the zoom...
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114. Pensacola21
4:26 PM GMT on October 06, 2005
Thanks Stormy
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 30 Comments: 3912
113. stormydee
4:24 PM GMT on October 06, 2005
21 - left hand side of this blog where it says My Photos, go to it and it will ask to upload photo...just follow directions. :-)
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112. Pensacola21
4:25 PM GMT on October 06, 2005
Just kiddin.. lol
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111. Pensacola21
4:23 PM GMT on October 06, 2005
Zap - Stammy
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110. stormydee
4:21 PM GMT on October 06, 2005
Amorris, this is the latest I have found Link
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109. Pensacola21
4:19 PM GMT on October 06, 2005
How do you post pictures here on the blog?
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 30 Comments: 3912
108. Zaphod
4:21 PM GMT on October 06, 2005
If the remnants of Stan merge with the remnants of Tammy, what would their offspring be named?
Member Since: October 5, 2005 Posts: 15 Comments: 3239
107. kerigangirl
4:22 PM GMT on October 06, 2005
This what you're looking for stormydee? Link
106. fflattiger
4:14 PM GMT on October 06, 2005
Last night revisited. My local weather guy, who is sitting less than 1/2 mile from here just told me that I am getting torrential rains and a lot of lightning. News to me, so I step outside in case my "thru the window" vision is messed up. Clouds above, a couple of patches of bright blue Florida sky, street and lawn both bone dry.....confirms my belief that we NEED NOAA, NWS, NHCC and need them just as they are. Thank heaven for NOAA and Wunderground!
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105. Amorris
4:15 PM GMT on October 06, 2005
anyone have any new runs on stan Jr
104. WillJax
4:12 PM GMT on October 06, 2005
Well, THIS is why Tammy appears to be slowing. She's trying to decide what she'll do: get drawn by the low to the north or get pushed south by the high to her west?

Member Since: September 7, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 33
103. palmbeacher
4:16 PM GMT on October 06, 2005
Raining here Billsfan.
102. palmbeacher
4:15 PM GMT on October 06, 2005
Subtropic, I am glad you are ok, thought you were MIA. I am only on during the day. To busy at night.
101. billsfaninsofla
12:06 PM EDT on October 06, 2005
well, it looks like Dade is getting rain, and West Broward, nothing here East..
Wow, the area below Cuba really seems firing up..
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100. subtropic
12:08 PM EDT on October 06, 2005
Hi palmbeacher, I've been around mostly at night. Been busy during the day, so I haven't had time to stop by here much.
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99. palmbeacher
4:05 PM GMT on October 06, 2005
SUBTROPIC. Where U been???
98. caneman
12:00 PM EDT on October 06, 2005
Just say no to Bahama blobs. Time for 'canes season to end and allow peace and prosperity to reign in the tropics.
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97. stormydee
4:01 PM GMT on October 06, 2005
anyone know if any floaters are on any of these blobs yet? I would check but I have dial up and loading my loops takes awhile (BUT THEY ARE STILL WORKING-YES!!!)...if so, could you share the link? Thank you so much! :-)
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96. TheEdge
12:00 PM EDT on October 06, 2005
Thx for that link Wxdude. Very interesting.
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95. weatherdude65
3:59 PM GMT on October 06, 2005
watch that blow up of convection south of western Cuba.....could be interesting
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94. billsfaninsofla
11:53 AM EDT on October 06, 2005
Stormy... LOL... be careful what you say!

Willjax.. that's a good illustration..
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93. stormydee
3:54 PM GMT on October 06, 2005
keri - willjax, think the shear is too high, all convection N of 10...maybe they are waiting for the shear to let up first to make sure it is not destroyed...or as Jeff said above, move higher above the equitar for a better spin on things.
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92. kerigangirl
3:55 PM GMT on October 06, 2005
I agree stormy... does look like a september pattern.
91. weatherdude65
3:56 PM GMT on October 06, 2005
stormy, yes it does.
Well all, I am heading to lunch and then to a Spanish class here at work, check back in later this afternoon
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90. gbreezegirl
3:54 PM GMT on October 06, 2005
Weather channel says rain 50%. LOL.
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89. stormydee
3:53 PM GMT on October 06, 2005
65 nice link....I think we are doing a Sept now instead of an Oct...what do you think?
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88. gbreezegirl
3:53 PM GMT on October 06, 2005
Aghhh! My sinuses if that pressure keeps falling!
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87. stormydee
3:52 PM GMT on October 06, 2005
well, cool if it didn't hit anyone :-)
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86. kerigangirl
3:49 PM GMT on October 06, 2005
Yeah willJax I am surprised 8N 43W, isn't already classified a TD. It looks like it's spinning pretty good to me.... or at least visible does.
85. ClydeFrog
3:49 PM GMT on October 06, 2005
ok the ULL off the western tip of cuba is pretty lame convection wise, but due south of the ULL a pretty large area of deep convection has been blooming for a few hours now. My question really is a technical one, there are two ULL's in the Gulf already, is there any possibility for that new blob south of the western tip of cuba? My theroy would be it would be pretty hard fighting the closer of the two low's outflow, etc.
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84. stormydee
3:51 PM GMT on October 06, 2005
maybe Vince will form off Cuba and Wilma over in the mid Atlantic, Tammy will swing out into the gulf and merge with Vince and they become one big Alpha...wouldn't that be cool? LOL :-)
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83. weatherdude65
3:49 PM GMT on October 06, 2005
Link Climatology
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82. stormydee
3:49 PM GMT on October 06, 2005
gb, hence it Tammy gets pushed back your way, Ill never see the sun till next week....blah...
Is anyone else here weather sensitive? (example - my teeth are sensitive when the air pressure is changing)
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81. stormydee
3:46 PM GMT on October 06, 2005
my local weather guy said that we should get some dry air in here come Sunday...I just don't see that front making much difference for us and that ULL in the gulf is just dragging moisture up this way. The ULL is pushing maybe, but its just so moist out there.
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79. gbreezegirl
3:45 PM GMT on October 06, 2005
Per accuweather 11 am discussion:
Tammy will head in a west or even southwest direction the rest of the day. Well that is too weird! I guess that explains why our weather in the panhandle is so crappy today.
Member Since: September 7, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 274
78. stormydee
3:44 PM GMT on October 06, 2005
Florida is not the sunshine state today, is it? :-)
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77. stormydee
3:43 PM GMT on October 06, 2005
gb - poss the trough coming stalled her and then is gonna push her back to sea....
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76. gbreezegirl
3:42 PM GMT on October 06, 2005
Can anyone tell me why Tammy would be stationary? What happened to Northeast? Accuweather is even showing forecast track as stationary right now.
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75. stormydee
3:36 PM GMT on October 06, 2005
65 - mixed clouds and sun right now.....well, lots more clouds than sun... :-)
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74. hiseasdrifter
3:24 PM GMT on October 06, 2005
hello weather junkies, whats the possibility stan jr.blows across florida and reenergizes in the atlantic to cause grief to us in coastal n.c ? ps its a lovely day for ducks here in ocean isle beach.winds 25-30,seas 7-8,rain,rain,and more rain.
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73. gbreezegirl
3:34 PM GMT on October 06, 2005
Hey - did anyone else notice that Tammy is now stationary?
Member Since: September 7, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 274
72. prttyeyez2002
3:30 PM GMT on October 06, 2005
Morning all,

It's fixing to start raining here :( I need to mow my lawn...this is a little strange..we usually get our rain from the west but this is coming from the south-east...I guess Tammy wants to share the love...LOL
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71. weatherdude65
3:31 PM GMT on October 06, 2005
stormy, looks like some rain is starting to develope south of us
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70. subtropic
11:25 AM EDT on October 06, 2005
Just posting This morning's MIA NWS discussion and then I'm out. Since I posted most of the flood watches, this only seemed reasonable. Hi Palmbeacher!

fxus62 kmfl 061426

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Miami Florida
1025 am EDT Thursday Oct 6 2005

Update...12z Miami sounding still showing extremely high
precipitable water...2.49 inches...and surface observation indicate dewpoints are running in the upper 70s to near 80. These conditions are favorable for the development of widespread precipitation. However...lack of well defined focusing mechanism is preventing this from occurring. Low near the western tip of Cuba this morning is still expected to move north and provide better focus for heavy rains tonight into Friday. Will leave Flood Watch up for now but will have to seriously consider lowering it this afternoon if the rains do not materialize.
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69. gbreezegirl
3:32 PM GMT on October 06, 2005
Look at the IR Channel loop on Skeetobite. It looks pretty healthy right now to me. All the models on Skeetobite have it going in around Tampa or South of Cedar Key.
Member Since: September 7, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 274
68. stormydee
3:27 PM GMT on October 06, 2005
what about another bahama blob again, looking nasty there...and underneath P.R.?
Yikes, gonna be a lot to talk about today....
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67. palmbeacher
3:30 PM GMT on October 06, 2005
yes, it does seem to have broke apart and most of the convection is south of Cuba, lets hope it goes away.
66. palmbeacher
3:29 PM GMT on October 06, 2005
wpb, where are you, I am not getting the rain you are.

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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