After Tammy, what next?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:42 PM GMT on October 06, 2005

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Tammy
Tropical Storm Tammy came ashore at 7 pm EDT last night near the Florida Georgia border with sustained winds of 50 mph, a storm surge of 1 - 3 feet, and torrential rains. Rainfall amounts across southeast Georgia and coastal sections of
southeast South Carolina have been in the 2 to 7 inch range, with 2 inches or less across interior South Carolina. The highest rainfall totals between 4 and 7 inches have occurred between Folly Beach and Darien. Additional rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches are possible today. While numerous instances of urban and small stream flooding have been observed, no major flooding damage has been reported from Tammy.


Figure 1. Estimated rainfall from the Jacksonville radar.

Tammy is being drawn westward across Georgia by an upper level low over the northern Gulf of Mexico, and is expected to dissipate tonight. A cold front is expected to arrive over the East Coast Friday,pulling the remains of Tammy northward up the front, drenching the entire East Coast.

Stan Jr.
The large area of thunderstorms that broke off from Stan yesterday is now a 1005 mb low pressure system over the Yucatan Channel between Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula. Satellite imagery shows a very disorganized system with the main cloudiness well east and north of the center. Not much upper-level outflow is apparent. Wind shear of about 10 knots from westerly upper-level winds is pushing the convection away from the center, towards the east. Observations from Cuban radar confirm that this a poorly organized system with a few bands of heavy showers over western Cuba.

This system is expected to push northward the next two days, spreading heavy rain and high winds over western Cuba, the Florida Keys, and the Florida Peninsula. Development into a tropical depression today is not likely, given the system's current disorganized state. Florida can expect conditions similar to those a tropical depression or weak tropical storm would bring, however, with rain amounts of 3 - 5 inches and high winds. The system will continue to the northeast and drench the areas already dumped on by Tropical Storm Tammy, and the entire East Coast will need to be concerned about flooding problems from this one-two punch.


Figure 2. BAMM and GFDL model tracks for Stan Jr.--the tropical disturbance off of the Yucatan.

Stan
The death toll from Hurricane Stan now stands at 162, including 62 deaths in El Salvador, 79 in Guatemala, and 21 in Nicaragua, Mexico, and Honduras. Unconfirmed reports from remote villages in Guatemala indicate that hundred more may be dead. Extensive deforestation in the high mountains where Stan's heavy rains fell contributed significantly to this disaster; the lack of tree cover allowed floodwaters to rampage down the mountainsides unchecked. The remnants of Stan will continue to pour heavy rains on this area today, but should ease off Friday.

Stan, who barely made it to Category 1 strength for a few hours, will likely have his name retired, thanks to this unfolding disaster. This would make the Hurricane Season of 2005 the first season to have five names retired (1955, 1995, and 2004 all had four storm names retired).


Figure 3. Stan's observed rainfall from the NASA TRMM satellite. Rainfall amounts as high as 400 mm (16 inches) were observed along the coast.

Stan III?
The remants of Stan have formed a large area of intense convection near the Mexican coast by Acapulco amd Puerto Vallarta, and appear likely to spin up into a new tropical depression today. This storm will track northwestward and threaten Baja and much of the Mexican Pacific coast.

Vince?
A tropical disturbance near 8N 43W, about 1200 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands, has developed a low level circulation, impressive deep convection, and the beginnings of an upper-level outflow channel to the north. About 10 knots of shear from strong westerly winds is affecting the disturbance, but models indicate that this shear may decrease over the next day or two. The disturbance is moving west at 15 - 20 mph. A more northwestery motion is likely by Saturday, thanks to the steering influence of a large upper-level low pressure system at 25N 60W.

The disturbance is pretty far south for development to occur, and I don't expect a tropical depression here today. Development is more likely Friday or Saturday, when the disturbance will be further from the equator and can take advantage of the Earth's spin to help it develop.


Figure 4. BAMM and GFDL model tracks for the mid-Atlantic disturbance.

Elsewhere in the tropics
Conditions are expected to be unusually conducive for tropical storm formation throughout the Atlantic for the next 10 days, and it is quite likely we'll make it to the end of the alphabet by mid-October. When that happens, we go Greek--Alpha, Beta, and hopefully not much further into the Greek Alphabet!

Jeff Masters

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265. CoconutCreekFLA
7:57 PM GMT on October 06, 2005
cTampa: can't say I've had to pleasure. I only came to notice them this year. First it was one every once in awhile crossing the street. Then it was falling from the sky on my sis (I like that though). They had something on the news recently about it. It sounds like they have become more established on your side of the state.
262. cTampa
7:54 PM GMT on October 06, 2005
coconut- If you've ever had the pleasure of visiting Boca Grande, FL on the west coast, those big iguanas are loose every where. They sit on the docks, rooftops, etc... just sunning away. Creepy!
Member Since: August 30, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 20
261. oriondarkwood
7:54 PM GMT on October 06, 2005
Later people..

Say safe and Watch the skies..
Member Since: July 5, 2004 Posts: 51 Comments: 42
260. CoconutCreekFLA
7:54 PM GMT on October 06, 2005
To clarify: my neighborhood alligator (named Mr. Sunshine b/c it just lounged on driveways) did NOT eat any pets or small children. However, one of those big old lizards did get in a fight with a squirrel and while falling out of the tree almost landed on my sister's head!
259. oriondarkwood
7:53 PM GMT on October 06, 2005
cgableshurrycanegal,

Read your email
Member Since: July 5, 2004 Posts: 51 Comments: 42
258. cgableshurrycanegal
7:53 PM GMT on October 06, 2005
on that gross note ::VBG:: gotta go to a meeting.
Hi and bye 65.
See you all later!
Member Since: July 12, 2005 Posts: 24 Comments: 212
257. CoconutCreekFLA
7:52 PM GMT on October 06, 2005
YUCK!!!!

What makes me nervous is that we already have to worry about the stray alligator getting lose in neighborhoods and chowing down on pets and small children. We just had one in my neighborhood. But NOW we have to worry about these snakes too! Not to mention, those big iguana things you are starting to see everywhere (not the little geckos).
256. 8888888889gg
7:52 PM GMT on October 06, 2005
i have up date my blog so take a look
255. Pensacola21
7:51 PM GMT on October 06, 2005
Hey weatherdude =)
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 30 Comments: 3912
254. cgableshurrycanegal
7:50 PM GMT on October 06, 2005
one theory is that the gator was already dead when python swallowed it and it started to bloat inside snake and the front claws caught it good from inside as well as then swelling up too much for it. Then something else came along and opportunistically ate the python's head.
Only in SOUTH FLORIDA!!! Honestly, you couldn't MAKE UP these stories... just read the danged headlines...
and talk about nasty, they didn't dare airlift the mess out of there, figure it'd explode on the way to wherever and be one nasty mess so they necropsied on site...
Member Since: July 12, 2005 Posts: 24 Comments: 212
253. cTampa
7:48 PM GMT on October 06, 2005
I'm lucky I have an extra gig teaching online. It helps pay the bills! Looks like weather wise we are in the clear here in Tampa. Thank goodness!
Member Since: August 30, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 20
252. weatherdude65
7:48 PM GMT on October 06, 2005
hello again everyone
251. CoconutCreekFLA
7:46 PM GMT on October 06, 2005
Tampa: I recall reading something a long time ago where they looked at teacher's salaries historically. They reported that when this country first started, the pay differential b/w teachers and lawyers was not very different. Over time, however, that changed. I suppose it speaks to what is considered more valuable. So sad.
250. cgableshurrycanegal
7:46 PM GMT on October 06, 2005
Tampa, best friend is elem music teacher down here. I hear you. She got so mad a few years back with all the corruption she even quit the union when Tornillo got caught with his hand in the cookie jar BIG time. Can't remember if she's gone back or not.
Member Since: July 12, 2005 Posts: 24 Comments: 212
249. Pensacola21
7:45 PM GMT on October 06, 2005
Hey does anyone think that that wave in the Atlantic could sneak in the Gulf? Earlier someone (I forgot who) told me they though it would be more likely to hit the east coast...
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 30 Comments: 3912
248. MandyFSU
7:45 PM GMT on October 06, 2005
i agree cgables... geez. Shame the gator couldn't make a break for it.
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 82 Comments: 2525
247. cTampa
7:43 PM GMT on October 06, 2005
FYI... teachers don't get paid for our two weeks at Christmas and our week at spring break. They hold our pay (they pay us for nine days every ten days and put the extra day in escrow that the school district earns interest off of) so we still get a pay check for those weeks. We're not paid during the summer either, and our benefits stink!! The pay for our basic HMO, but add one child and you pay 192 every two weeks. Sorry not weather related. Just had to let it out! lol
Member Since: August 30, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 20
246. CoconutCreekFLA
7:43 PM GMT on October 06, 2005
To refresh: Hebert's box was where a storm had to be to hit anywhere in florida or just S. Florida?
245. cgableshurrycanegal
7:42 PM GMT on October 06, 2005
Mandy, y'day we were talking about how that belongs in the new TV series, Invasion!!! Between hurricanes and aliens it would fit right in there!
Member Since: July 12, 2005 Posts: 24 Comments: 212
244. WillJax
7:41 PM GMT on October 06, 2005
Wow billsfan, definitely more toward Hebert's box than before! Will be interesting to see if the "Hebert's correlation" pans out for this particular storm.




And I'm glad to see the models reflected my belief that CubaBlob's center had moved further south than predicted. Yessssss!
Member Since: September 7, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 33
243. cgableshurrycanegal
7:40 PM GMT on October 06, 2005
orion, LOL, No, not if it isn't right there...
Member Since: July 12, 2005 Posts: 24 Comments: 212
242. CoconutCreekFLA
7:39 PM GMT on October 06, 2005
Bills: hmmmm. my daughter is 4 so she's in a preschool. They follow the broward schedule. I suppose I should really check and see if she has school tomorrow before I drop her off ;)
241. Dawgfan
7:38 PM GMT on October 06, 2005
According to the track reported, Tammy crossed north of my area (Valdosta, GA) while moving east to west. Even though it was within 35 to 40 miles, we didn't see any rain or winds. Seems like all the wind and rain was far north and east of the center. Last year Tropical Storm Bonnie passed about 25 miles to our south and not a single breeze was felt here. Frances and Jeanne were quite a different story last year.
240. billsfaninsofla
7:37 PM GMT on October 06, 2005
CC... yep, with the holiday Tues, early release today and teachers work day tomorrow... 2 1/2 days off this week, plus they are off next Thursday as well! Geez... enough already...
Member Since: September 5, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 5530
239. MandyFSU
7:37 PM GMT on October 06, 2005


Link

This is about our earlier chat on the alligator and the python... if you haven't embraced the horror yet...
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 82 Comments: 2525
238. phelp
7:35 PM GMT on October 06, 2005
the wave in the atlantic isn't looking as good now as it was 12 hours ago
237. hootiethebooty
7:33 PM GMT on October 06, 2005
wpb, I am crossing all my fingers and toes for a win against Penn this weekend. The Bucks have three strikes against them, it's an away game to be played in the evening after a by weekend, even though they are favored to win, but not by much.
236. oriondarkwood
7:31 PM GMT on October 06, 2005
cgableshurrycanegal,

Thanks did you see my stupid human tricks pic?
Member Since: July 5, 2004 Posts: 51 Comments: 42
235. Scotth
7:31 PM GMT on October 06, 2005
Glad the kids aren't sitting around all day saying that!
Member Since: August 4, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 23
234. oriondarkwood
7:28 PM GMT on October 06, 2005
CoconutCreekFLA,

Same here, I vague remenber a joke about being I'm bored as a pickup line or was it I'm drunk (LOL)
Member Since: July 5, 2004 Posts: 51 Comments: 42
233. cgableshurrycanegal
7:28 PM GMT on October 06, 2005
billsfan - teachers' work day there too, huh?
Member Since: July 12, 2005 Posts: 24 Comments: 212
232. MandyFSU
7:28 PM GMT on October 06, 2005
wpb: from your fingers to God's ears. :-)
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 82 Comments: 2525
231. cgableshurrycanegal
7:27 PM GMT on October 06, 2005
BTW, Orion! Nice family! Cute daughter!
Member Since: July 12, 2005 Posts: 24 Comments: 212
230. scaldisnoel
7:26 PM GMT on October 06, 2005
Zaphod,
I didn't see that anyone had answered your questions, but you may get some of your answers from the NOAA FAQ site Link
It gives the basics, but also gets into some much deeper explanation of tropical forecasting and such.
Member Since: September 3, 2003 Posts: 0 Comments: 59
229. CoconutCreekFLA
7:25 PM GMT on October 06, 2005
and my old favorite, "I'mmmm Booooored"
228. cirrocumulus
7:24 PM GMT on October 06, 2005
Am I missing something or does it look like the next disturbance in the Atlantic will hit the United States if it doesn't slip between the high pressures in the Atlantic? Would this be the major hurricane that has a 20% chance of hitting the U.S. according to Dr. Gray?
Member Since: September 30, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1606
227. WillJax
7:22 PM GMT on October 06, 2005
It looks that Stan Blob is having more favorable shear develop as we speak. I'm also wundering if the upper-level anticyclone hovering off of South Florida may eventually move in to help the outflow of Stan Jr., regardless of what he becomes.
Member Since: September 7, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 33
226. billsfaninsofla
7:21 PM GMT on October 06, 2005
CC... probably have a day full of rain tomorrow.. public schools are off ... full day of hearing, "but there's NOTHING to do"
Member Since: September 5, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 5530
225. wpb05
7:19 PM GMT on October 06, 2005
Mandy.........

My thought are that the most we will see out of the system by Cuba is a TD......which will move through the middle of florida as a simple low.......the area in the atlantic I believe may be a TS, but will curve out to sea
224. oriondarkwood
7:19 PM GMT on October 06, 2005
Good LEEDS..

Whoops sorry wrong football (LOL)
Member Since: July 5, 2004 Posts: 51 Comments: 42
223. billsfaninsofla
7:19 PM GMT on October 06, 2005
CGables... you know how it is down here, they can't do anything right the first time... project might be done on time and within budget! .. this (project) has become a joke around the office.
Member Since: September 5, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 5530
222. billsfaninsofla
7:17 PM GMT on October 06, 2005
WilJax, CC ... did you happen to notice that the Figure 4 that Jeff has for our little friend around 9 degrees has been updated? WilJax.. does it look like three models have it going through Heberts' Box?
Member Since: September 5, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 5530
221. CoconutCreekFLA
7:17 PM GMT on October 06, 2005
Mandy: probably too early to tell but I don't like how they look like fingers reaching out to the coast.
220. MandyFSU
7:16 PM GMT on October 06, 2005
What does everyone think of the new model runs? Too early to tell?
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 82 Comments: 2525
219. wpb05
7:14 PM GMT on October 06, 2005
hootie........

AS much as I still hope the bucks make it to Pasadena for the NC, I wouldn't mind them playing down in Miami in the Orange Bowl...although early rumors have them playing ND in Tempe........oh dang, yet another OSU schooling of the Irish
218. hootiethebooty
7:14 PM GMT on October 06, 2005
Hey Coco and to everyone else here.
217. CoconutCreekFLA
7:13 PM GMT on October 06, 2005
Hi Booty! (just wanted to say that :))
216. Scotth
7:12 PM GMT on October 06, 2005
I was thinking that Cgables! Can you imagine wpb...if your wife was blogging from her job and she saw that? OOOOH! You be in for it! :O)
Member Since: August 4, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 23

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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