Tomas nearly dead; Haiti deals with Tomas' floods

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:50 PM GMT on November 07, 2010

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Tropical Storm Tomas is merging with a cold front over the open Atlantic Ocean and has only a few more hours of life as a tropical cyclone. Despite bringing heavy rains of 4 - 8 inches to highly vulnerable Haiti on Friday, flooding from the storm is only being blamed for eight deaths in the country. Haiti has thankfully avoided a flooding catastrophe, and it certainly could have gone far worse for Haiti. Much weaker storms than Tomas have claimed thousands of lives, and Tomas could easily have done so had it taken a slightly different track. Still, Tomas' passage caused plenty of flooding damage in Haiti. The heavy rains and floods from the storm will also worsen the country's cholera epidemic, which has already claimed over 500 lives. Cholera is a spread via contaminated water, and Tomas' rains will cause a great deal of water contamination. Portlight.org has their mobile kitchen on the scene and is assessing needs. As reported by Rudy Victor in the Portlight.org blog, "Reports coming from the countryside are not good. Thank God its not what we're afraid of, but lots of damage. Leogane a city west of Port-au-Prince is inundated, cities along the extreme southwestern peninsula have suffered great damage by the seas; lots of small fishermen's houses are gone. Dame Marie, Anse d'Hainault, Les Irois, Chambellan, and lots more have been severely damaged by storm surge and raging waves. Gonaives is flooded since last night; luckily there are not reports yet of casualties there. Most people fled to higher ground before the storm. A lot of roads in the south west are destroyed, lots of harvest in the south are lost, and it's another terrible blow for this country, but it appears that there was not a lot of death due to the storm."


Figure 1. Morning afternoon satellite image of Tomas shows that the storm has lost almost all of its heavy thunderstorms, and is now embedded in a cold front that extends northwards to Nova Scotia, Canada. Moisture streaming northwards from Tomas along this front has brought heavy rains in excess of six inches to Nova Scotia over the past few two days.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting all4hurricanes:
My Retirement Picks
Alex 50% (big damage in Mexico but Mexico doesn't like to retire storms
Bonnie Colin Danielle Earl Fiona Gaston Hermine 0%
Igor 40% bad in newfoundland but only caused 200 mil
Julia 0%
Karl 100% 5+ billion in damage
Lisa 0%
Matt 60% 2 billion and 200 dead but NHC is weird with developing countries, and he was only a ts
Nicole 5% only 250mil very spread out
Otto Paula Rick Shary 0%
Tomas 90% severe damage in Lesser Antilles


Rick???

I think you mean Richard.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32565
My Retirement Picks
Alex 50% (big damage in Mexico but Mexico doesn't like to retire storms
Bonnie Colin Danielle Earl Fiona Gaston Hermine 0%
Igor 40% bad in newfoundland but only caused 200 mil
Julia 0%
Karl 100% 5+ billion in damage
Lisa 0%
Matt 60% 2 billion and 200 dead but NHC is weird with developing countries, and he was only a ts
Nicole 5% only 250mil very spread out
Otto Paula Rick Shary 0%
Tomas 90% severe damage in Lesser Antilles
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Quoting Tazmanian:
so it may not be in tell 2013 in tell we see other EL Nino?


Possibly.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32565
57. CybrTeddy 10:51 AM PST on November 07, 2010 Hide this comment.
Karl - Gone.
Igor - Gone, Newfoundland requested retirement.
Tomas - Gone, Virgin Islands will probably request retirement.
Alex - Possibly.. 2 billion to Texas/Mexico was caused.
Matthew - Possibly, heavy damage to Central America and heavy loss of life. Would be the 2nd TS to be retired in the Atlantic basin.

Ameister12 better yet bump it up too 100% see post above
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Quoting HurricaneDean07:
Alex - 45% ~One Of The Only June Hurricanes

Bonnie - No

Colin - No

Danielle - No

Earl - No

Fiona - No

Gaston - No

Hermine - No

Igor - 55% ~Could Be Upgraded to Cat 5

Julia - No

Karl - 95% ~Caused Catastrophic Damage for Mexico

Lisa - No

Matthew - No

Nicole - No

Otto - No

Paula - No

Richard - No

Shary - 60% ~Hasn't been used before - Became Hurricane

Tomas - 70% ~Hasn't been used before - Became Hurricane - caused 540 Million $ in damage

I would bump Igor up to 65% due to the fact he caused significant damage to Newfoundland.
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so it may not be in tell 2013 in tell we see other EL Nino?
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The 2011 Atlantic Hurricane Season is likely to be active...And its going to start out a La Nina, unlike this year.

The 2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season could be even more active...Chart shows a strengthening La Nina at the end.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32565
Quoting DontAnnoyMe:


It's in the list, right between Hugo and Inez...


sorry I thought they were in year order
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Quoting Thundercloud01221991:


Ike wasn't retired???


It's in the list, right between Hugo and Inez...
Member Since: September 21, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3690
Quoting docrod:
doesn't seem to be any retired names coming back?
Link


Carol - which tore through my neighborhood :-0 - was reused before being retroactively retired.

"“Carol” was used again to denote a hurricane in the mid-Atlantic Ocean in 1965. However, because the name does not appear after that time, it is assumed that the name was retired retrospectively for the damages caused by the 1954 storm of the same name."

Link
Member Since: September 21, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3690
Quoting charlottefl:
List of all names retired since naming began:


Agnes 1972
Alicia 1983
Allen 1980
Allison 2001
Andrew 1992
Anita 1977
Audrey 1957
Betsy 1965
Beulah 1967
Bob 1991
Camille 1969
Carla 1961
Carmen 1974
Carol 1954
Celia 1970
Cesar 1996
Charley 2004
Cleo 1964
Connie 1955
David 1979
Dean 2007
Dennis 2005
Diana 1990
Diane 1955
Donna 1960
Dora 1964
Edna 1968
Elena 1985
Eloise 1975
Fabian 2003
Felix 2007
Fifi 1974
Flora 1963
Floyd 1999
Fran 1996
Frances 2004
Frederic 1979
Georges 1998
Gilbert 1988
Gloria 1985
Gustav 2008
Hattie 1961
Hazel 1954
Hilda 1964
Hortense 1996
Hugo 1989
Ike 2008
Inez 1966
Ione 1955
Iris 2001
Isabel 2003
Isidore 2002
Ivan 2004
Janet 1955
Jeanne 2004
Joan 1988
Juan 2003
Katrina 2005
Keith 2000
Klaus 1990
Lenny 1999
Lili 2002
Luis 1995
Marilyn 1995
Michelle 2001
Mitch 1998
Noel 2007
Opal 1995
Paloma 2008
Rita 2005
Roxanne 1995
Stan 2005
Wilma 2005


Ike wasn't retired???
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doesn't seem to be any retired names coming back?
Link
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List of all names retired since naming began:


Agnes 1972
Alicia 1983
Allen 1980
Allison 2001
Andrew 1992
Anita 1977
Audrey 1957
Betsy 1965
Beulah 1967
Bob 1991
Camille 1969
Carla 1961
Carmen 1974
Carol 1954
Celia 1970
Cesar 1996
Charley 2004
Cleo 1964
Connie 1955
David 1979
Dean 2007
Dennis 2005
Diana 1990
Diane 1955
Donna 1960
Dora 1964
Edna 1968
Elena 1985
Eloise 1975
Fabian 2003
Felix 2007
Fifi 1974
Flora 1963
Floyd 1999
Fran 1996
Frances 2004
Frederic 1979
Georges 1998
Gilbert 1988
Gloria 1985
Gustav 2008
Hattie 1961
Hazel 1954
Hilda 1964
Hortense 1996
Hugo 1989
Ike 2008
Inez 1966
Ione 1955
Iris 2001
Isabel 2003
Isidore 2002
Ivan 2004
Janet 1955
Jeanne 2004
Joan 1988
Juan 2003
Katrina 2005
Keith 2000
Klaus 1990
Lenny 1999
Lili 2002
Luis 1995
Marilyn 1995
Michelle 2001
Mitch 1998
Noel 2007
Opal 1995
Paloma 2008
Rita 2005
Roxanne 1995
Stan 2005
Wilma 2005
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Quoting lhwhelk:
Notice that the words are "it cannot be reused for at least 10 years." The name is not permanently gone. I would guess that in 10 years, the powers-that-be would review whether a storm's name ("Katrina") is still in the public mind, and then decide whether to re-use it. They're not going to run out of names!


Anyone know of a name that's been unretired?
Member Since: September 21, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3690
Regarding 2011...


Its going to be active.
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Stan also killed about 1,600 people in Central America. Most of those in were in a small village at the Base of Atitlan( an active volcano in Guatemala)

Quoting HurricaneDean07:
It's like the stan situation of 05. he made hurricane statues and the name had never been used. although the one other reason why stan was retired was it caused quite a bit of damage which shary didnt.
so that one is more of my toss up.
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ghost of tomas

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Quoting DoverWxwatchter:
I guess I believe in a stricter standard. I think that the 2 or 3 most damaging and deadly storms in a decade should be retired, not every storm that does a lot of damage someplace but isn't really catastrophic. Tomas caused a lot of damage in St. Lucia but he wasn't a catastrophic storm. Not really. It's like retiring football player or baseball player numbers. Do it too often and you run out of numbers and quietly have to slip the numbers or names back in later.


Did you read Patrap's comment? Names are able to be reused:

"Retiring a name actually means that it cannot be reused for at least 10 years"

So please don't worry about running out of names. :-)
Member Since: September 21, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3690
Quoting Bordonaro:

Like Orca's upcoming blizzard in Vancouver this winter!!
iam watchin and waitin

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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
i will as well but mostly in lurk mode unless something big is going to happen or is happening

Like Orca's upcoming blizzard in Vancouver this winter!!
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i will as well but mostly in lurk mode unless something big is going to happen or is happening
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Quoting hydrus:
Well by then we should heading into a neutral phase, which leads me to believe it will be an above average year with more U.S.landfalls...This is just speculation on my behalf.

Preliminary 2011 ATL Hurricane season forecast is in the works already, believe or not!!
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Quoting Neapolitan:

I'll buy the first three...but why Shary?
It's like the stan situation of 05. he made hurricane statues and the name had never been used. although the one other reason why stan was retired was it caused quite a bit of damage which shary didnt.
so that one is more of my toss up.
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
should be quiet on the blogs from here on out as most disappear till april

I'll be here tracking the USA and world wide crazy winter weather patterns, compliments of the La Nina!!!
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Quoting Bordonaro:

Well, 2010 Atlantic Hurricane season was a real hyperactive year..I have the funny feeling next year will be busy also, but not as bad as this year, I hope!!
Well by then we should heading into a neutral phase, which leads me to believe it will be an above average year with more U.S.landfalls...This is just speculation on my behalf.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21878
should be quiet on the blogs from here on out as most disappear till april
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Quoting Bordonaro:

Well, 2010 Atlantic Hurricane season was a real hyperactive year..I have the funny feeling next year will be busy also, but not as bad as this year, I hope!!
2011 will be here soon enough
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Quoting hydrus:
I posted the NCEP on the last post I typed...It also has a storm forming....

Well, 2010 Atlantic Hurricane season was a real hyperactive year..I have the funny feeling next year will be busy also, but not as bad as this year, I hope!!
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Quoting Bordonaro:

Just wonderful, the Caribbean region needs another tropical system like I need another hole in my head.
I posted the NCEP on the last post I typed...It also has a storm forming....
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21878
Quoting hydrus:
Quite a few of the models do in fact have something forming in the Caribbean Sea in about a week...NOGAPS.(which is a cyclone ambitious in its own right).Link

Just wonderful, the Caribbean region needs another tropical system like I need another hole in my head.
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Quoting Dakster:


CMC living up to its namesake of Constantly Making Cyclones...

Quite a few of the models do in fact have something forming in the Caribbean Sea in about a week...NOGAPS.(which is a cyclone ambitious model in its own right).Link...And the NCEP...Link
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21878
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
so in total my likely picks for retirement are:
Tomas
Karl
Igor?
Shary?




you for got Matthew
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Karl - Gone.
Igor - Gone, Newfoundland requested retirement.
Tomas - Gone, Virgin Islands will probably request retirement.
Alex - Possibly.. 2 billion to Texas/Mexico was caused.
Matthew - Possibly, heavy damage to Central America and heavy loss of life. Would be the 2nd TS to be retired in the Atlantic basin.
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Quoting DoverWxwatchter:
I guess I believe in a stricter standard. I think that the 2 or 3 most damaging and deadly storms in a decade should be retired, not every storm that does a lot of damage someplace but isn't really catastrophic.
Notice that the words are "it cannot be reused for at least 10 years." The name is not permanently gone. I would guess that in 10 years, the powers-that-be would review whether a storm's name ("Katrina") is still in the public mind, and then decide whether to re-use it. They're not going to run out of names!
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Quoting HurricaneDean07:
so in total my likely picks for retirement are:
Tomas
Karl
Igor?
Shary?

I'll buy the first three...but why Shary?
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Quoting HurricaneDean07:
Alex - 45% ~One Of The Only June Hurricanes

Bonnie - No

Colin - No

Danielle - No

Earl - No

Fiona - No

Gaston - No

Hermine - No

Igor - 55% ~Could Be Upgraded to Cat 5

Julia - No

Karl - 95% ~Caused Catastrophic Damage for Mexico

Lisa - No

Matthew - No

Nicole - No

Otto - No

Paula - No

Richard - No

Shary - 60% ~Hasn't been used before - Became Hurricane

Tomas - 70% ~Hasn't been used before - Became Hurricane - caused 540 Million $ in damage
so in total my likely picks for retirement are:
Tomas
Karl
Igor?
Shary?
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
Check out this report deep in the Caribbean. That latest cold front is still going strong way down at 16 degrees North Latitude.

Station 42057
NDBC
Location: 16.834N 81.501W
Conditions as of:
Sun, 7 Nov 2010 17:50:00 UTC

Winds: N (360%uFFFD) at 23.3 kt gusting to 27.2 kt
Significant
Wave Height: 10.8 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 8 sec
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.98 in and falling
Air Temperature: 78.1 F
Dew Point: 59.9 F
Water Temperature: 83.3 F
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.
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Quoting Orcasystems:
Ok, for fun.. go and watch this CMC model run

Shows Tomas heading northward, splitting... one piece heading to the Northeastern states, the other part continuing North... the part hitting the states..appears to rebound and start heading back towards the Caribbean.

As an added bonus.. its also has a system starting in the Southwest Caribbean.



CMC living up to its namesake of Constantly Making Cyclones...

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959mb low:



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Wow Matthew caused $2.6 Billion in Damage and 126 direct fatalities. This one might have a case for retirement too.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
The only name I see getting retired is Karl. All the other hurricanes this year have not caused sufficient damage to be retired.

I reckon will find out in April, but I think Tomas and Karl are shoe-ins for retirement, Igor is likely (if Environment Canada requests it, and I imagine they will), and Alex is a distinct possibility.

And a word to the "season is definitely over" crowd, who we're sure to hear more from over the next several days: in 2005 there was a three-week lull between Beta, which formed on 10/26, and Gamma, which came into being on 11/15...and after Gamma, there were still three others. That's not to say we'll see four more storms, but it's too early to claim things over with any real degree of certainty...
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Quoting Tazmanian:



the M storm dos have a %70 ch be come it did $2.6 billion in damage


Was our deadliest storm this season too.
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Quoting HurricaneDean07:
Alex - 45% ~One Of The Only June Hurricanes

Bonnie - No

Colin - No

Danielle - No

Earl - No

Fiona - No

Gaston - No

Hermine - No

Igor - 55% ~Could Be Upgraded to Cat 5

Julia - No

Karl - 95% ~Caused Catastrophic Damage for Mexico

Lisa - No

Matthew - No

Nicole - No

Otto - No

Paula - No

Richard - No

Shary - 60% ~Hasn't been used before - Became Hurricane

Tomas - 70% ~Hasn't been used before - Became Hurricane - caused 540 Million $ in damage



the M storm dos have a %70 ch be come it did $2.6 billion in damage
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the wave along 35w headed west reminds me how Tomas started...with an "unusually vigorous" tropical wave.

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44. IKE
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
100 PM EST SUN NOV 7 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM TOMAS...LOCATED ABOUT 525 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BROWN

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Earthquakes, cholera, and now floods. Haiti has been hit pretty hard this year.
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Alex - 45% ~One Of The Only June Hurricanes

Bonnie - No

Colin - No

Danielle - No

Earl - No

Fiona - No

Gaston - No

Hermine - No

Igor - 55% ~Could Be Upgraded to Cat 5

Julia - No

Karl - 95% ~Caused Catastrophic Damage for Mexico

Lisa - No

Matthew - No

Nicole - No

Otto - No

Paula - No

Richard - No

Shary - 60% ~Hasn't been used before - Became Hurricane

Tomas - 70% ~Hasn't been used before - Became Hurricane - caused 540 Million $ in damage
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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