Tomas nearly dead; Haiti deals with Tomas' floods

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:50 PM GMT on November 07, 2010

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Tropical Storm Tomas is merging with a cold front over the open Atlantic Ocean and has only a few more hours of life as a tropical cyclone. Despite bringing heavy rains of 4 - 8 inches to highly vulnerable Haiti on Friday, flooding from the storm is only being blamed for eight deaths in the country. Haiti has thankfully avoided a flooding catastrophe, and it certainly could have gone far worse for Haiti. Much weaker storms than Tomas have claimed thousands of lives, and Tomas could easily have done so had it taken a slightly different track. Still, Tomas' passage caused plenty of flooding damage in Haiti. The heavy rains and floods from the storm will also worsen the country's cholera epidemic, which has already claimed over 500 lives. Cholera is a spread via contaminated water, and Tomas' rains will cause a great deal of water contamination. Portlight.org has their mobile kitchen on the scene and is assessing needs. As reported by Rudy Victor in the Portlight.org blog, "Reports coming from the countryside are not good. Thank God its not what we're afraid of, but lots of damage. Leogane a city west of Port-au-Prince is inundated, cities along the extreme southwestern peninsula have suffered great damage by the seas; lots of small fishermen's houses are gone. Dame Marie, Anse d'Hainault, Les Irois, Chambellan, and lots more have been severely damaged by storm surge and raging waves. Gonaives is flooded since last night; luckily there are not reports yet of casualties there. Most people fled to higher ground before the storm. A lot of roads in the south west are destroyed, lots of harvest in the south are lost, and it's another terrible blow for this country, but it appears that there was not a lot of death due to the storm."


Figure 1. Morning afternoon satellite image of Tomas shows that the storm has lost almost all of its heavy thunderstorms, and is now embedded in a cold front that extends northwards to Nova Scotia, Canada. Moisture streaming northwards from Tomas along this front has brought heavy rains in excess of six inches to Nova Scotia over the past few two days.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting lightningbolt73:
I'm surprised that Fay was never retired, considering that it caused so much flooding in Central Fl.

That is so random compared to what people are doing right now in the blog, but it's true XD
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I'm surprised that Fay was never retired, considering that it caused so much flooding in Central Fl.
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137. Don't Annoy Me! I totally agree and I was siding with Ike about one of his bashers. Some on here get mad at too many things. Everybody has an opinion and should be free to express that opinion without being criticized. I mainly lurk but had to jump in here. Sorry you took it the wrong way, guess I didn't word it correctly.
Member Since: August 5, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 107
138. DDR
Quoting DontAnnoyMe:
Officially, hurricane season is not over. But the fact is that nobody knows if it's over in reality. Everyone's entitled to their opinion, and in my opinion the juvenile bashing is pathetic. We all, as humans, should respect others opinions no matter what they are.

well said!
let IKE be
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Quoting charlestonscnanny:
Ike, lol. He seems to have so many buttons to push.


I don't think so; it's just that as he is a downcaster there are many times more wishcasters to gang up on and antagonize him. I think he's showed remarkable restraint this season.
Member Since: September 21, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3690
It's not like saying the season is over will make it true it just means you will probably be wrong Hurricanes are not controlled by people and certainly not this blog. The reason I mention Matt being a ts effecting his retirement is because many devastating storm have not retired because of their intensity although that has lessened in decent years. Perhaps the Central Americans will feel shamed if they admit a TS caused all this destruction, or maybe the nhc will think that it was the fault of the country not the storm like they did with Gordon. I think by all means Matthew should be retired
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Officially, hurricane season is not over. But the fact is that nobody knows if it's over in reality. Everyone's entitled to their opinion, and in my opinion the juvenile bashing is pathetic. We all, as humans, should respect others opinions no matter what they are.
Member Since: September 21, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3690
Ike, lol. He seems to have so many buttons to push.
Member Since: August 5, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 107
133. IKE
Quoting Autistic2:
Me thinks this season is done for the U.S.



Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
More than likely the Southeast Us won't have the harsh winter that they had last winter!
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Quoting Autistic2:
Me thinks this season is done for the U.S.

No hurricanes had hit the U.S, but not over for Caribbean.
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Quoting IKE:


114.

What do you mean 114?
This?
OH PLZS GIVE IT A REST
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Me thinks this season is done for the U.S.
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128. IKE
Quoting Vincent4989:

Stop saying RIP to the season. Its not over


114.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting IKE:


LOL...he's all pissed off. You would think I just said something bad about his family.

I guess 19 storms..numerous deaths...severe floods...millions and millions of damage isn't enough....and all I did was RIP a killer storm and the season.

Stop saying RIP to the season. Its not over
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As of this writing, just 205 days, 5 hours, and 16 minutes until the 2011 hurricane season gets underway.

Woo-hoo!!!

;-)
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125. IKE
Quoting charlestonscnanny:

Why don't you give it a rest. Ike can say what he feels anytime!


LOL...he's all pissed off. You would think I just said something bad about his family.

I guess 19 storms..numerous deaths...severe floods...millions and millions of damage isn't enough....and all I did was RIP a killer storm and the season.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Cold front absorbing tomas is a stationary front now
Link
Turn on the NCEP Fronts
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Quoting Tazmanian:
man i cant staned that IKE he say things that annyos evere one on


and you no what he nevere right and nevere will be i feel sorry for him

Why don't you give it a rest. Ike can say what he feels anytime!
Member Since: August 5, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 107
Quoting Sfloridacat5:
Check out this report deep in the Caribbean. That latest cold front is still going strong way down at 16 degrees North Latitude.

Station 42057
NDBC
Location: 16.834N 81.501W
Conditions as of:
Sun, 7 Nov 2010 17:50:00 UTC

Winds: N (360%uFFFD) at 23.3 kt gusting to 27.2 kt
Significant
Wave Height: 10.8 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 8 sec
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.98 in and falling
Air Temperature: 78.1 F
Dew Point: 59.9 F
Water Temperature: 83.3 F
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he doesnt annoy me and has a right to what he says and he hopes for the best for any storm and the season.
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Quoting IKE:


I don't give a darn what I was RIP-ing earlier this season. I'd rather root against anyone experiencing anything like what St. Lucia experienced with Tomas.

Thank God this season is finished for the blogs sanity.

It's not over yet until 30th nov, or 31th december
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117. IKE
Quoting Tazmanian:



OH PLZS GIVE IT A REST


I'll say what I want to on here. If you don't like it stick me on your ignore list.

Think I will you anyway...bye.

113 and counting.

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858


The name "Jal" means water in Hindi.
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IKE the season season is NOT finished
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Quoting IKE:


I don't give a darn what I was RIP-ing earlier this season. I'd rather root against anyone experiencing anything like what St. Lucia experienced with Tomas.

Thank God this season is finished for the blogs sanity.



OH PLZS GIVE IT A REST
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tazmanian:




this season is not overe yet IKE so its not RIP in tell NOV 30th


Technically yes, but actually the season is not over until December 31, or after that in the rare case a storm carries over to January. I know the odds are low, but you can't say RIP season until at least christmas.
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112. IKE
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Yeah...You were ripping a lot of things earlier this season...

I'm not buying the "Rip this season" phrase.


I don't give a darn what I was RIP-ing earlier this season. I'd rather root against anyone experiencing anything like what St. Lucia experienced with Tomas.

Thank God this season is finished for the blogs sanity.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Yeah...You were ripping a lot of things earlier this season...

I'm not buying the "Rip this season" phrase.



or am I the season is not RIP in tell nov 30th in tell then we can pick up 2 more storm
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Quoting IKE:
...TOMAS LOSES TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS...
5:00 PM AST Sun Nov 7
Location: 26.1°N 69.1°W
Max sustained: 60 mph
Moving: NNE at 3 mph
Min pressure: 997 mb.......

RIP Tomas and this season.





this season is not overe yet IKE so its not RIP in tell NOV 30th
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Quoting IKE:
...TOMAS LOSES TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS...
5:00 PM AST Sun Nov 7
Location: 26.1°N 69.1°W
Max sustained: 60 mph
Moving: NNE at 3 mph
Min pressure: 997 mb.......

RIP Tomas and this season.



Yeah...You were ripping a lot of things earlier this season...

I'm not buying the "Rip this season" phrase.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31893
108. IKE
...TOMAS LOSES TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS...
5:00 PM AST Sun Nov 7
Location: 26.1°N 69.1°W
Max sustained: 60 mph
Moving: NNE at 3 mph
Min pressure: 997 mb.......

RIP Tomas and this season.

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting winter123:
Poll: How many more storms (including TD or STD) this season?

A- 0
B- 1
C- 2
D- 3
E- 4+

I say B. There's always that one surprise storm in active seasons. Probably SW Caribbean and moving NE. I think we will also flirt with a STS west of Bermuda in december which will ultimately not be named.
...Just gut feelings obviously, not based on anything.


C
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31893
Quoting Thundercloud01221991:


Ike wasn't retired???
reread the list, ike was retired.
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Poll: How many more storms (including TD or STD) this season?

A- 0
B- 1
C- 2
D- 3
E- 4+

I say B. There's always that one surprise storm in active seasons. Probably SW Caribbean and moving NE. I think we will also flirt with a STS west of Bermuda in december which will ultimately not be named.
...Just gut feelings obviously, not based on anything.
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Quoting Thundercloud01221991:


that is put on most storms that die out to sea


Ok...

000
WTNT41 KNHC 072032
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM TOMAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 40
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
500 PM AST SUN NOV 07 2010

SATELLITE IMAGES...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...AND MODEL ANALYSES
INDICATE THAT TOMAS HAS ACQUIRED FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS. COLD AIR
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE NOW WRAPPING INTO THE INNER-CORE REGION...
AND ANY LINGERING DEEP CLOUDINESS APPEARS MORE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. THEREFORE...TOMAS IS NO LONGER CONSIDERED A
TROPICAL CYCLONE...AND THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM.

AN ASCAT PASS AROUND 1500 UTC SHOWED MAXIMUM WINDS IN THE 45-50 KT
RANGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT...AND THAT IS THE BASIS FOR
THE INITIAL INTENSITY. STEADY WEAKENING OF THE POST-TROPICAL
CYCLONE IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 020/3. THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD OR EAST-NORTHEASTWARD WITH A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED UNTIL IT BECOMES ABSORBED BY A MUCH
LARGER BAROCLINIC LOW OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC IN 3 TO 4 DAYS.

FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE TROPICAL ANALYSIS AND FORECAST BRANCH...
UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31893
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Interesting...

000
WTNT41 KNHC 072032
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM TOMAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 40
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
500 PM AST SUN NOV 07 2010

SATELLITE IMAGES...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...AND MODEL ANALYSES
INDICATE THAT TOMAS HAS ACQUIRED FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS. COLD AIR
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE NOW WRAPPING INTO THE INNER-CORE REGION...
AND ANY LINGERING DEEP CLOUDINESS APPEARS MORE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. THEREFORE...TOMAS IS NO LONGER CONSIDERED A
TROPICAL CYCLONE...AND THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM.

AN ASCAT PASS AROUND 1500 UTC SHOWED MAXIMUM WINDS IN THE 45-50 KT
RANGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT...AND THAT IS THE BASIS FOR
THE INITIAL INTENSITY. STEADY WEAKENING OF THE POST-TROPICAL
CYCLONE IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 020/3. THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD OR EAST-NORTHEASTWARD WITH A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED UNTIL IT BECOMES ABSORBED BY A MUCH
LARGER BAROCLINIC LOW OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC IN 3 TO 4 DAYS.

FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE TROPICAL ANALYSIS AND FORECAST BRANCH...
UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.


that is put on most storms that die out to sea
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Interesting...

000
WTNT41 KNHC 072032
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM TOMAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 40
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
500 PM AST SUN NOV 07 2010

SATELLITE IMAGES...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...AND MODEL ANALYSES
INDICATE THAT TOMAS HAS ACQUIRED FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS. COLD AIR
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE NOW WRAPPING INTO THE INNER-CORE REGION...
AND ANY LINGERING DEEP CLOUDINESS APPEARS MORE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. THEREFORE...TOMAS IS NO LONGER CONSIDERED A
TROPICAL CYCLONE...AND THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM.

AN ASCAT PASS AROUND 1500 UTC SHOWED MAXIMUM WINDS IN THE 45-50 KT
RANGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT...AND THAT IS THE BASIS FOR
THE INITIAL INTENSITY. STEADY WEAKENING OF THE POST-TROPICAL
CYCLONE IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 020/3. THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD OR EAST-NORTHEASTWARD WITH A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED UNTIL IT BECOMES ABSORBED BY A MUCH
LARGER BAROCLINIC LOW OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC IN 3 TO 4 DAYS.

FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE TROPICAL ANALYSIS AND FORECAST BRANCH...
UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31893
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
000
WTNT41 KNHC 072032
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM TOMAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 40
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
500 PM AST SUN NOV 07 2010

SATELLITE IMAGES...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...AND MODEL ANALYSES
INDICATE THAT TOMAS HAS ACQUIRED FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS. COLD AIR
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE NOW WRAPPING INTO THE INNER-CORE REGION...
AND ANY LINGERING DEEP CLOUDINESS APPEARS MORE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. THEREFORE...TOMAS IS NO LONGER CONSIDERED A
TROPICAL CYCLONE
...AND THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM.

AN ASCAT PASS AROUND 1500 UTC SHOWED MAXIMUM WINDS IN THE 45-50 KT
RANGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT...AND THAT IS THE BASIS FOR
THE INITIAL INTENSITY. STEADY WEAKENING OF THE POST-TROPICAL
CYCLONE IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 020/3. THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD OR EAST-NORTHEASTWARD WITH A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED UNTIL IT BECOMES ABSORBED BY A MUCH
LARGER BAROCLINIC LOW OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC IN 3 TO 4 DAYS.

FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE TROPICAL ANALYSIS AND FORECAST BRANCH...
UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.
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Well there goes Tomas...
...TOMAS LOSES TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS...

That one was a persistent little bugger. :|
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8665
96. KRL
Another lucky year for South Florida! Thank you Mother Nature!

:)
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Quoting all4hurricanes:
My Retirement Picks
Alex 50% (big damage in Mexico but Mexico doesn't like to retire storms
Bonnie Colin Danielle Earl Fiona Gaston Hermine 0%
Igor 40% bad in newfoundland but only caused 200 mil
Julia 0%
Karl 100% 5+ billion in damage
Lisa 0%
Matt 60% 2 billion and 200 dead but NHC is weird with developing countries, and he was only a ts
Nicole 5% only 250mil very spread out
Otto Paula Rick Shary 0%
Tomas 90% severe damage in Lesser Antilles



so the M storm was olny a TS that dos not mean any thing TS some times can be this has bad has hurricanes if i re call the A storm of 2001 did lots of flooding down in TX some where so TS can do this has bad has hurricane dos and they can get Retire this will be the olny 2nd TS too be Retire
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From NOAA:

The NHC/TPC does not control the naming of tropical storms. Instead, a list of names has been established by an international committee of the World Meteorological Organization. For Atlantic hurricanes, there is actually one list for each of six years. In other words, one list is repeated every seventh year. The only time that there is a change is if a storm is so deadly or costly that the future use of its name on a different storm would be inappropriate for obvious reasons of sensitivity. If that occurs, then at an annual meeting by the committee (called primarily to discuss many other issues) the offending name is stricken from the list and another name is selected to replace it.
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Bye Tomas.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31893
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The 2011 Atlantic Hurricane Season is likely to be active...And its going to start out a La Nina, unlike this year.

The 2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season could be even more active...Chart shows a strengthening La Nina at the end.


Wow, that La Nina forecast looks pretty unanimous.
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Quoting all4hurricanes:
My Retirement Picks
Alex 50% (big damage in Mexico but Mexico doesn't like to retire storms
Bonnie Colin Danielle Earl Fiona Gaston Hermine 0%
Igor 40% bad in newfoundland but only caused 200 mil
Julia 0%
Karl 100% 5+ billion in damage
Lisa 0%
Matt 60% 2 billion and 200 dead but NHC is weird with developing countries, and he was only a ts
Nicole 5% only 250mil very spread out
Otto Paula Rick Shary 0%
Tomas 90% severe damage in Lesser Antilles


Rick???

I think you mean Richard.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31893

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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