Tomas spares Haiti, heads out to sea

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:38 PM GMT on November 06, 2010

Share this Blog
1
+

Tropical Storm Tomas is over the open Atlantic, headed away from the islands, and is unlikely to trouble any more land areas. Despite bringing heavy rains of 4 - 8 inches to highly vulnerable Haiti yesterday, flooding from the storm is only being blamed for seven deaths thus far, and Haiti has avoided a flooding catastrophe. More Haitians died (12) last weekend from flooding rains of much lesser amounts, so I think part of the credit for the low death toll during Tomas has to go to the preparedness efforts made in advance of the storm. Many people were removed from flood-prone ravines, and flood control ditches and sandbagging efforts helped stymie flood waters. Luck also played a role--had Tomas tracked just ten miles farther west yesterday morning, the eyewall would have avoided disruption from the rugged terrain on Haiti's southwest peninsula. This would have allowed Tomas to strengthen to a Category 2 storm, and the band of very heavy rain to the south of Port-au-Prince would probably have held together and dumped an additional 2 - 4" of rain on the vulnerable earthquake zone.

Tomas plowed through the southeastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos islands early this morning as a strong tropical storm, and I anticipate that damage in the islands will be minor. Satellite loops show that the storm remains well organized, but clouds from an approaching cold front can be seen to Tomas' north, and the front is expected to catch up to the storm on Sunday and bring a rapid demise for Tomas.


Figure 1. Early afternoon satellite image of Tomas.

Tomas the second most damaging hurricane in St. Lucia history
Prime Minister Stephenson King announced Thursday that damage on the island of St.Lucia was $185 million--five time higher than earlier estimates. This sum is 19% of St. Lucia's GDP, and is the second most expensive hurricane ever for the island. Tomas damaged 10,000 homes and killed 14 people during its rampage over the island last Saturday. St. Lucia received the full brunt of the northern eyewall of Tomas as it intensified, and the St. Lucia weather service reported that sustained winds of 90 - 95 mph affected the island. Power has been restored to 90% of the island and most of the tourist facilities have reopened, however.

Tomas is the strongest hurricane to affect St. Lucia since Category 1 Hurricane Dean of 2007 brought 90 mph winds to the island. Dean killed one person and did $6.4 million in damage--0.5% of the nation's GDP. The island's strongest hurricane since accurate records began in 1851 was Hurricane Allen of 1980, which struck as a Category 3 hurricane with 130 mph winds. Allen killed 18 people on St.Lucia, and caused catastrophic damage of $235 million dollars ($613 million 2010 dollars.) This was 177% of the nation's GDP that year. The deadliest hurricane in St. Lucia history was the Category 5 Great Hurricane of 1780, which killed approximately 700 people. The Great Hurricane of 1780 was the Atlantic's deadliest hurricane of all-time, with 22,000 fatalities, mostly in the Lesser Antilles Islands.


Figure 2. Damage on St. Lucia from Hurricane Tomas. Image credit: St. Lucia Star.

Organizations Active in Haitian Relief Efforts:
Portlight disaster relief has shipped their mobile kitchen to Quisqueya, Haiti, and the kitchen will be ready to feed 500 people per day.
Lambi Fund of Haiti
Haiti Hope Fund
Catholic Relief Services of Haiti

Next update
I'll have an update Sunday morning.

My post on Haiti's hurricane history is now a permanent link in the "Articles of interest" section on our Tropical & Hurricane web page.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 198 - 148

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5Blog Index

Quoting tropicfreak:


Like every other storm in the atlantic, except the ones that hit mexico, man what a boring season.


wow tf...hate to say it, but that was a pitiful comment...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting hydrus:
Looks a little healthier now...Back to a hurricane.?...
he is a hurricane latest advisory states 80 MPH, 987 MB, NNE @ 10
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


looks like we got us another AOI but it should be no threat to major land areas
i give it a 30 to 40% Chance of The New AOI ever becoming virginie
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting DontAnnoyMe:


1, but unfortunately there will always be some who have the need to feed.

Link


Thanks for that link: I considered the article for the first time.... Very certain this advice:

Starve a troll of the attention they covet and they will lose their motivation to jabber.

The opposite holds true. Give a troll one tiny foothold of attention - one crumb of a nod from the table of dialogue - and they will grow like "The Blob" in the campy Steve McQueen flick.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I see Kerry once again brought drama here..

Anyways good evening everyone. Tbh, it would be pretty cool to see the greek Alphabet again this year.. as long as they're like Delta-Zeta in 2005, well out to sea. Plus we're tied with 1995 and 1887 with the 3rd most active season, interesting to see if we'll break the 3 way tie.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
KOG, go and read 63 & 64 in my blog... if the wife is there... and you laugh... thats your problem.. not mine :)
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26516
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


2011 hurricane map

Very Good Point there Keeper.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting hurristat:
todas las personas deben anadir kerryinnola a la lista de usuarios invisibles...


+1, but unfortunately there will always be some who have the need to feed.

Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
NAM 84 hrs. New low in the Mona passage

Member Since: Posts: Comments:


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


2011 hurricane map


ROFLMAO
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26516
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


2011 hurricane map


I lol'd
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


2011 hurricane map
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56007
Pro's and Con's of Daylight saving time

Do we still need daylight saving time?

Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Complete Update


AOI
AOI AOI AOI

AOI AOI AOI

TSPIN BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26516
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


nice flare sw quad


The best part about that is that you can see the variance in the electromagnetic fields caused by the solar flare just from the picture!! :D
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
i have comments set at 200 so iam still on page one


Hmm I only have mine set at 50
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26516
Quoting hurristat:
todas las personas deben anadir kerryinnola a la lista de usuarios invisibles...

Voy a tener que hacerlo

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Merapi Volcano Death Toll Reaches 76
Published on November 06, 2010

JAKARTA, .INDONESIA

Hospital officials in Indonesia confirmed the death toll from Mount Merapi's latest eruption had reached 76 people.

The latest eruption, which began Friday, brought total deaths to about 120 since October 26, when activity at the volcano increased, CNN reported Saturday.

In the most recent explosive event, the temperature of the ash and lava hitting a village in central Java near the mountain's crater reached up to 600 degrees Celsius, which is 1,112 degrees Fahrenheit.

A hospital spokeswoman said burns had made identifying some of the victims impossible. Of the 76 dead, "We have only been able to identify 11 ... because the burns were just too severe," said the spokeswoman.

Plan International, a children's charity, has issued appeals for help. Indonesian President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono has ordered the military and the country's domestic agencies to pick up the pace of relief efforts.

Mount Merapi has a deadly history with eruptions killing two in 2006 and 60 in 1994. The deadliest activity was in 1930, when Merapi eruptions killed about 1,300 people.

Indonesia is already dealing with a deadly earthquake that killed 449 people last week.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
todas las personas deben anadir kerryinnola a la lista de usuarios invisibles...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting PcolaDan:
There is not enough SO2 nor other particulates emanating from Merapi to cause any effect to global temperatures.


Wow, an impressive eruption, w/o fallout? Cool.
Member Since: July 23, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 12414
Tomas' ACE is now 10.23, making him only the fifth storm this year to have double-digit ACE. He's actually the third longest-lived storm, having passed up both Julia and Danielle today. Earl is in second place, but Tomas would have to last 48 more hours or so, and that doesn't appear likely at this time...


1 Igor 42.4450
2 Earl 27.7750
3 Danielle 21.7950
4 Julia 14.1825
5 Tomas 10.2300
6 Alex 6.7825
7 Paula 6.5900
8 Karl 5.8000
9 Otto 4.6550
10 Richard 4.5625
11 Lisa 3.6175
12 Fiona 3.0775*
13 Shary 1.8750
14 Colin 1.8650*
15 Matthew 1.3750
16 Hermine 1.2725
17 Bonnie 0.3675
18 Gaston 0.3675
19 Nicole 0.1225
-----------------------
Total 158.7575

* - Storms marked with an asterisk show official operational ACE compiled from final storm reports.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13797
Quoting Orcasystems:
Its a bad thing when you can read back almost the entire blog... and it only takes about 10 minutes.
i have comments set at 200 so iam still on page one
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56007
There is not enough SO2 nor other particulates emanating from Merapi to cause any effect to global temperatures.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Its a bad thing when you can read back almost the entire blog... and it only takes about 10 minutes.
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26516
Quoting KerryInNOLA:
Don't be a sourpuss like Caneswatch and Neapolitan and Orca and Jflorida and Co.

They chase people away from the blog and then complain when the blog is dead.


Wrong!!! They never made any Racist comentaries in this Blog... racism & supremacy comentaries DO chase people in this blog....

Coments should be Weather related like:

Full Conus Tonight





Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting ILoveCat5Devastation:
It's fun to do bad things.
really that sounds like an anti social behavior
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56007
11:00 PM AST Sat Nov 6
Location: 25.2°N 69.6°W
Max sustained: 80 mph
Moving: NNE at 10 mph
Min pressure: 987 mb
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
HURRICANE TOMAS ADVISORY NUMBER 37
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
1100 PM AST SAT NOV 06 2010

...TOMAS SLOWING DOWN...EXPECTED TO TURN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ON
SUNDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.2N 69.6W
ABOUT 275 MI...440 KM NNE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
ABOUT 570 MI...915 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56007
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
No more fighting


I'm sorry, but it's not my fault Kerry always starts fights.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
No more fighting
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting KerryInNOLA:
Taz is cool. He is the Andy Kaufman of the blog with the spelling and everything.

Don't be a sourpuss like Caneswatch and Neapolitan and Orca and Jflorida and Co.

They chase people away from the blog and then complain when the blog is dead.


Haha, I chase people away? That's your job. And complain when it's dead? I don't really care if it's dead, I go on other sites.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
maybe but its ok you're american


Hey Keep, not all of us "Americans" should be lumped together. I know we shouldn't lump all "Canucks" together. LOL
Member Since: July 23, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 12414
what talk about that volcano it looks like a bad one i wounder if it will have any am pacs on are weather this winter
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115454
Time after time..



Fall back tonight and sleep in a hour tomorrow.

..Whatever the price,I'll pay..
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129809
155. JLPR2
Quoting KerryInNOLA:
It was a joke Taz. A bad one true, but a joke. Everyone knows you're the man. :)


You got to work on that sense of humor man! XD
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting KerryInNOLA:
It was a joke Taz. A bad one true, but a joke. Everyone knows you're the man. :)



well you guys have a good night back too lurk mode bye all
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115454
Quoting KerryInNOLA:
It was a joke Taz. A bad one true, but a joke. Everyone knows you're the man. :)



i new that thats why i chage it
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115454
Quoting KerryInNOLA:
Taz, you really need to invest in a good spell checker. Or finish 2nd grade, sheesh!




marry Christmas too you i hop you get some nic COLD
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115454
Quoting JLPR2:


There is no controversy, the NHC said it was a cane so it was one. XD
yep
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56007
any ch at all of 90L in round 4 will be upgraded
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115454

Viewing: 198 - 148

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Overcast
28 °F
Overcast

JeffMasters's Recent Photos

Lake Effort Snow Shower Over Windsor, Ontario
Sunset on Dunham Lake
Pictured Rocks Sunset
Sunset on Lake Huron