Rains abate in Haiti as Tomas weakens

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 8:24 PM GMT on November 05, 2010

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Data from this afternoon's flight by the Hurricane Hunters shows that Tomas may have weakened to a tropical storm, though NHC is maintaining it as a hurricane in their 5pm advisory. The 3:28pm center fix found that Tomas' pressure had risen to 992 mb, and the top surface winds seen by the SFMR instrument were 64 mph. Highest winds at 10,000 feet were 74 mph, supporting reducing Tomas' status from hurricane to tropical storm--though it is possible that the aircraft did not sample the strongest winds of Tomas. The Gran Piedra, Cuba radar shows fewer echoes than this morning, and satellite loops also reveal a weakened storm, with much less heavy thunderstorm activity near the center. The weakening was probably due to the fact the center of Tomas passed very close to the rugged terrain of Haiti's southwest peninsula, and the rough mountains disrupted the flow into the developing eyewall of the hurricane. Conditions remain favorable for intensification, though, with wind shear a moderate 10 - 20 knots, and SSTs a very warm 29.5°C.


Figure 1. Visible MODIS satellite image taken by NASA's Terra satellite at 11:30am EDT November 5, 2010. image credit: NASA.

Impact on Hispaniola and Cuba
A trough of low pressure over the Eastern U.S. is drawing Tomas northeastward at 12 mph, and this forward speed will gradually increase to 15 mph by early Saturday morning. Tropical storm force winds of 39+ mph extend out about 140 miles to the east, and Tomas is probably bringing tropical storm force winds to the tip of eastern Cuba and Haiti's northwest peninsula at present. Rainfall is the primary concern from Tomas, though, not wind. Satellite estimates (Figure 2) indicate that Tomas dumped up to 4 - 6 inches of rain as of 8am EDT on much of southen Haiti; an additional 1 - 3 inches has probably fallen since then. However, the band of heavy rain to the south of Haiti that appeared poised to give southern Haiti an additional 3 - 6 inches of rain today got disrupted when Tomas' center brushed the mountainous tip of southwest Haiti. Thus, it appears the worst of the rain is over for Haiti. An additional 1 - 2 inches is possible in isolated regions, judging from recent satellite data. Preliminary news reports I've heard from Port-au-Prince indicate that the earthquake zone weathered the storm with no major loss of life. Severe flooding was reported on Haiti's southwest peninsula, with AP video showing 4 feet of water flowing through the streets of Leogane, 20 miles west of Port-au-Prince. It remains to be seen how the rest of Haiti fared, as satellite estimates of rainfall are often low, and do not properly measure the heavier rains that can fall in mountainous regions. A band of heavy rain is over the Dominican Republic this afternoon, and total rainfall amounts approaching ten inches in the mountains regions will likely cause dangerous flooding and mudslides in that country this afternoon and this evening.


Figure 2. Satellite-estimated rain amounts for the 24-hour period ending at 8am EDT Friday, November 5, 2010. Rainfall amounts of 4 - 6 inches (green colors) occurred over Costa Rica, the southwestern peninsula of Haiti, and isolated regions of the Dominican Republic and the rest of Haiti. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Impact on the Southeast Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands
Although Tomas has been weakened by its close encounter with Haiti and now Cuba, the storm is in a favorable environment for re-intensification. I expect Tomas will re-intensify back to 85 mph winds by 2am EDT Saturday, as it passes through the Southeast Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands. Once Tomas pushes north of the islands on Sunday, the storm should weaken quickly, as wind shear is expected to rise to a very high 50 knots.

Tomas the second most damaging hurricane in St. Lucia history
Prime Minister Stephenson King announced yesterday that damage on the island of St.Lucia was $185 million--five times higher than earlier estimates. This sum is 19% of St. Lucia's GDP, and is the second most expensive hurricane ever for the island. Tomas damaged 10,000 homes and killed 14 people during its rampage over the island last Saturday. St. Lucia received the full brunt of the northern eyewall of Tomas as it intensified, and the St. Lucia weather service reported that sustained winds of 90 - 95 mph affected the island. Power has been restored to 90% of the island and most of the tourist facilities have reopened, however.

Tomas is the strongest hurricane to affect St. Lucia since Category 1 Hurricane Dean of 2007 brought 90 mph winds to the island. Dean killed one person and did $6.4 million in damage--0.5% of the nation's GDP. The island's strongest hurricane since accurate records began in 1851 was Hurricane Allen of 1980, which struck as a Category 3 hurricane with 130 mph winds. Allen killed 18 people on St.Lucia, and caused catastrophic damage of $235 million dollars ($613 million 2010 dollars.) This was 177% of the nation's GDP that year. The deadliest hurricane in St. Lucia history was the Category 5 Great Hurricane of 1780, which killed approximately 700 people. The Great Hurricane of 1780 was the Atlantic's deadliest hurricane of all-time, with 22,000 fatalities, mostly in the Lesser Antilles Islands.


Figure 3. Damage on St. Lucia from Hurricane Tomas. Image credit: St. Lucia Star.

Organizations Active in Haitian Relief Efforts:
Portlight disaster relief has shipped their mobile kitchen to Quisqueya, Haiti, and the kitchen will be ready to feed 500 people per day.
Lambi Fund of Haiti
Haiti Hope Fund
Catholic Relief Services of Haiti

Next update
I'll have an update Saturday morning.

My post on Haiti's hurricane history is now a permanent link in the "Articles of interest" section on our Tropical & Hurricane web page.

Jeff Masters

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588. CybrTeddy
7:03 PM GMT on November 06, 2010
1. A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED ABOUT 1100
MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH AND AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO BEFORE IT REACHES COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24574
586. hydrus
5:36 PM GMT on November 06, 2010
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
quiet saturday on the blog
Quiet equals tranquility...:)
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22583
585. reedzone
5:33 PM GMT on November 06, 2010
Quoting 1900hurricane:


Is recon actually in there to prove this is not a Hurricane?
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7437
584. Orcasystems
5:31 PM GMT on November 06, 2010
Oh oh.. SWMBO saw the remarks about the lights.. asked when I am putting ours up... maybe I should just hang myself now :(
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26516
583. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
5:15 PM GMT on November 06, 2010
quiet saturday on the blog
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 55978
582. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
5:01 PM GMT on November 06, 2010
Quoting hydrus:
Two weeks I believe..Shows how much time I spend thinking about holidays...I have worked almost all of them for the past 30 years...
ya two weeks same weekend as toronto santa claus parade on sunday 21 and the macys thanksgiving day parade on the 22
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 55978
581. hydrus
4:58 PM GMT on November 06, 2010
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
american thanksgiving is next weekend too right
Two weeks I believe..Shows how much time I spend thinking about holidays...I have worked almost all of them for the past 30 years...
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22583
580. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
4:53 PM GMT on November 06, 2010
american thanksgiving is next weekend too right
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 55978
579. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
4:50 PM GMT on November 06, 2010
and after next weekend it will start like crazy putting lights after the santa claus parade sunday 21 of nov
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 55978
578. hydrus
4:48 PM GMT on November 06, 2010
Quoting Orcasystems:
ARRGGGHHHHH!!!!!!!

Canadian Tire Christmas commercials already. Someone should be hung... its what NOVEMBER 6???

Bah Humbug
Man do I read ya..Here in Tennessee, they start this crap in October. It is absolutely ludicrous beyond words.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22583
577. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
4:48 PM GMT on November 06, 2010
Quoting Orcasystems:
ARRGGGHHHHH!!!!!!!

Canadian Tire Christmas commercials already. Someone should be hung... its what NOVEMBER 6???

Bah Humbug
hey i got some nut bars with lights up on there baloneys here one on 6th floor one on the 11 floor
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 55978
576. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
4:37 PM GMT on November 06, 2010
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #18
SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM JAL (BOB05-2010)
17:30 PM IST November 6 2010
==========================================

SUBJECT: Severe Cyclone Jal Over Southwest Bay Of Bengal

Cyclone Warning for North Tamil Nadu and South Andhra Pradesh Coasts

At 12:00 PM UTC, Severe Cyclonic Storm Jal moved northwestwards and lays centered over southwest Bay of Bengal near 11.0N 84.5E, or about 450 km northeast of Trincomalee (Sri Lanka), 500 km southeast of Chennai and 600 km southeast of Nellore.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 55 knots with gusts of 65 knots. The central pressure is 988 hPa. The state of the sea is very high around the system's center.

Animation of past 24 hours INSAT imagery indicates deep convection and cloud mass is more organized. The Dvorak intensity is T3.5. Intense to very intense convection around system center and broken intense to very intense convection between 5.0 to 16.0N and west of 77.0E. The lowest cloud top temperature due to convection is around -70 to -80C.

The system would intensify further, move west-northwestwards and cross north Tamil Nadu and south Andhra Pradesh coasts between Puducherry and Nellore close to Chennai Sunday night.

Forecast and Intensity
======================
6 HRS: 11.0N 84.0E - 65 knots (very severe cyclonic storm)
12 HRS: 11.5N 83.5E - 65 knots (very severe cyclonic storm)
36 HRS: 14.0N 79.5E - 60 knots (severe cyclonic storm)
60 HRS: 16.0N 75.5E - 25 knots (depression)

Vertical wind shear of horizontal wind over the region is moderate to high. 24 hour tendency of vertical wind shear has increased and is now positive over the region. Sea surface temperature is 29-31C and the ocean heat content over southwest Bay of Bengal is 80-90 kj/cm2. The relative vorticity at 850 HPA level is (15-20*10-5S-1) and upper level divergence (10-20) around the system center is favorable intensification. The system lies to the south of tropospheric ridge, which roughly runs along 16.0N at 200 HPA level.

Storm surge of about 1-2 metres above the astronomical tide may inundate the low lying areas of Nellore & Prakasam districts of Andhra pradesh and Tiruvallur, Chennai & Kanchipuram districts of Tamil Nadu at the time of landfall.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46907
575. Orcasystems
4:37 PM GMT on November 06, 2010
ARRGGGHHHHH!!!!!!!

Canadian Tire Christmas commercials already. Someone should be hung... its what NOVEMBER 6???

Bah Humbug
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26516
574. hydrus
4:27 PM GMT on November 06, 2010
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


moving e se ward at a good clip too
We had a similar set up when we had our last series of tornadoes here. The models had picked up on it a little sooner though....
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22583
573. Neapolitan
4:18 PM GMT on November 06, 2010
Even with all the cooler-than-it-was-a-few-days-ago temps in the eastern third of the nation, not many cold temperature records have been broken at all. In fact, according to HAMweather, 24 record low or low maximum temps have been set or tied in the CONUS over the past 48 hours, while 162 record high or high minimums were set or tied over the same period. It's still very warm in most of the western US: 77 in Greeley, CO; 78 in Hardin, MT; 96 in Los Angeles; 100 in San Diego; etc.

On a different weather note: it was five years ago today that a powerful F-3 tornado struck Evansville, IN, killing 25.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13796
572. 1900hurricane
4:15 PM GMT on November 06, 2010
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 47 Comments: 11709
571. Chicklit
4:13 PM GMT on November 06, 2010
Good afternoon, I keep thinking about the Haitian situation. Yesterday there was an article about how the UN people are kicking the Haitians off of privately owned land, with some violence. Also UN seen as "bad guys."
Over here in the U.S., if privately owned land is needed for public purposes then the government can acquire it through eminent domain procedures and paying fair market value. This has happened innumerable times over the past century as our infrastructure, particularly highways, have been built, rebuilt and expanded.
Why not do this with some of the aid money to provide ground base? Clearly there is organization lacking regarding the humanitarian effort in Haiti. We got lucky this year and yesterday was a big warning to get an act together regarding real progress with that situation.
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11423
570. Bordonaro
4:04 PM GMT on November 06, 2010
Quoting CycloneUK:
Jal:


Southern India and Sri Lanka and gonna get hammered!!
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
569. Bordonaro
4:02 PM GMT on November 06, 2010
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
yeah welcome too the end of cane season now reality sets in

The GFS leaves an area of lower pressures in the Caribbean on the 06Z run, but no development.

At 19-12 & 5..I think we have one more storm and it will be over, I hope :O)
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
568. nocaneindy
3:58 PM GMT on November 06, 2010
Quoting Bordonaro:

A portion of the NWS Dallas-Ft Worth, TX Area Forecast Discussion from earlier today:

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY OFF THE WEST COAST WILL
DIG IN THE ROCKIES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE WILL SEE THE TROUGH
MOVE EAST DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. THE GFS AND ECWMF
SOLUTIONS DIFFER ON HOW THEY HANDLE THIS TROUGH. THE ECWMF CUTS
OFF A LOW OVER NORTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO...AND THEN MOVES IT EAST
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE GFS AND MOST OF ITS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...MOVE THIS TROUGH EAST FASTER.


Here's what the Indianapolis afd mentions .

ON THURSDAY...KEPT A LOW CHANCE...ALTHOUGH MODELS TRENDED A LITTLE
DRIER BASED ON HPC. GFS AND EUROPEAN MOVE A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS AROUND DAY 6 AND BRING A STRONG OUR WAY
EITHER LATE DAY 7 OR POSSIBLY AFTER THAT IF THE EUROPEAN IS RIGHT.
WILL MENTION A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALL AREAS...BUT I WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED ENDS UP ARRIVING FRIDAY NIGHT.



Member Since: September 21, 2007 Posts: 34 Comments: 515
567. scott39
3:58 PM GMT on November 06, 2010
Good weather for Greek Fest!
566. Orcasystems
3:55 PM GMT on November 06, 2010
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


Please quit showing that kind of stuff...I already know its raining.
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26516
565. Orcasystems
3:54 PM GMT on November 06, 2010
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
yeah welcome too the end of cane season now reality sets in


Now I just weather watch... PV for two weeks.. Jan 7 - 21 :)
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26516
564. CycloneUK
3:53 PM GMT on November 06, 2010
Jal:

Member Since: March 5, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 39
563. scott39
3:52 PM GMT on November 06, 2010
Goodmorning, The low was 36 here in Wilmer, Lower Al. this morning. I didnt expect it to get so low so soon in the season.
562. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
3:50 PM GMT on November 06, 2010
Quoting Orcasystems:


Morning KOG, a lot of nothing out there other then Tomas.
yeah welcome too the end of cane season now reality sets in
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 55978
561. Orcasystems
3:48 PM GMT on November 06, 2010
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
good day big fish


Morning KOG, a lot of nothing out there other then Tomas.
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26516
560. Bordonaro
3:39 PM GMT on November 06, 2010
Quoting nocaneindy:


My local nws here in Muncie, In. mentions the possibility of thunderstorms on friday in the hazardous weather outlook.
They mentioned snow and thunderstorms in the same brief. Ah the wonderful world of weather.

A portion of the NWS Dallas-Ft Worth, TX Area Forecast Discussion from earlier today:

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY OFF THE WEST COAST WILL
DIG IN THE ROCKIES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE WILL SEE THE TROUGH
MOVE EAST DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. THE GFS AND ECWMF
SOLUTIONS DIFFER ON HOW THEY HANDLE THIS TROUGH. THE ECWMF CUTS
OFF A LOW OVER NORTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO...AND THEN MOVES IT EAST
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE GFS AND MOST OF ITS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...MOVE THIS TROUGH EAST FASTER.
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
559. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
3:38 PM GMT on November 06, 2010
Quoting hydrus:
Here comes that fast moving jet into the U.S. again...Severe weather down the road?


moving e se ward at a good clip too
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 55978
558. nocaneindy
3:32 PM GMT on November 06, 2010
Quoting hydrus:
Here comes that fast moving jet into the U.S. again...Severe weather down the road?


My local nws here in Muncie, In. mentions the possibility of thunderstorms on friday in the hazardous weather outlook.
They mentioned snow and thunderstorms in the same brief. Ah the wonderful world of weather.
Member Since: September 21, 2007 Posts: 34 Comments: 515
557. Bordonaro
3:32 PM GMT on November 06, 2010
Quoting hydrus:
Here comes that fast moving jet into the U.S. again...Severe weather down the road?

Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
556. hydrus
3:28 PM GMT on November 06, 2010
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
Here comes that fast moving jet into the U.S. again...Severe weather down the road?
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22583
555. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
3:24 PM GMT on November 06, 2010
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 55978
554. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
3:22 PM GMT on November 06, 2010
Quoting Orcasystems:


I have been there.. he can have it :)
good day big fish
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 55978
553. Orcasystems
3:18 PM GMT on November 06, 2010
Complete Update


AOI
AOI AOI AOI

AOI AOI AOI

TSPIN BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26516
552. hydrus
3:18 PM GMT on November 06, 2010
Quoting Ameister12:
65 mph? Looks like a hurricane to me.
The mighty pin-hole eye...lol
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22583
551. hydrus
3:17 PM GMT on November 06, 2010
Quoting germemiguel:


Welcome to windshearland ;-)
Yes...Windshear is on the menu...
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22583
550. germemiguel
3:04 PM GMT on November 06, 2010
Quoting hydrus:
LOL...November the 6th and we are watching Central Atlantic blobs...Quite fascinating actually...


Welcome to windshearland ;-)
Member Since: June 3, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 74
549. Ameister12
2:59 PM GMT on November 06, 2010
65 mph? Looks like a hurricane to me.
Member Since: August 9, 2009 Posts: 10 Comments: 5082
548. Orcasystems
2:57 PM GMT on November 06, 2010
Quoting hydrus:
PATRAP has his own airport in Toronto? :)


I have been there.. he can have it :)
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26516
547. hydrus
2:56 PM GMT on November 06, 2010
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
Toronto Pearson Int'l Airport
Date: 10:00 AM EDT Saturday 6 November 2010
Condition: Sunny
Pressure: 30.27 inches
Tendency: rising
Visibility: 15 miles
Air Quality Health Index: 2

Temperature: 34.3°F
Dewpoint: 25.0°F
Humidity: 68 %
Wind: NE 6 mph
PATRAP has his own airport in Toronto? :)
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22583
546. Orcasystems
2:53 PM GMT on November 06, 2010



Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26516
543. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
2:45 PM GMT on November 06, 2010
Toronto Pearson Int'l Airport
Date: 10:00 AM EDT Saturday 6 November 2010
Condition: Sunny
Pressure: 30.27 inches
Tendency: rising
Visibility: 15 miles
Air Quality Health Index: 2

Temperature: 34.3°F
Dewpoint: 25.0°F
Humidity: 68 %
Wind: NE 6 mph
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 55978
542. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
2:44 PM GMT on November 06, 2010
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #17
SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM JAL (BOB05-2010)
14:30 PM IST November 6 2010
==========================================

SUBJECT: Severe Cyclone Jal Over Southwest Bay Of Bengal

Cyclone Warning for North Tamil Nadu and South Andhra Pradesh Coasts-Orange Message

At 9:00 AM UTC, Severe Cyclonic Storm Jal remained practically stationary and lays centered over southwest Bay of Bengal near 10.5N 85.0E, or about 450 km east-northeast of Trincomalee (Sri Lanka), 550 km east-southeast of Chennai and 700 km southeast of Nellore.

It would intensify further, move west-northwestwards and cross north Tamil Nadu and south Andhra Pradesh coasts between Puducherry and Nellore close to Chennai by Sunday night.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 55 knots with gusts of 65 knots. The central pressure is 990 hPa. The state of the sea is very high around the system's center.

Animation of past 24 hrs INSAT imagery indicates deep convection and cloud mass is more organized. The Dvorak intensity is T3.5. The cloud dense overcast with well defined spiral banding features. Intense to very intense convection around the system center and broken intense to very intense convection between 5.0N to 16.0N and west of 88.0E. The lowest cloud top temperature due to convection is around -80C to -85C.

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

6 HRS: 11.0N 84.5E - 60 knots (Severe Cyclonic Storm)
12 HRS: 11.0N 84.0E - 65 knots (Very Severe Cyclonic Storm)
36 HRS: 13.0N 80.5E - 65 knots (Very Severe Cyclonic Storm)
60 HRS: 15.0N 76.5E - 25 knots (Depression)

Vertical wind shear of horizontal wind over the region is low to moderate. 24 hour tendency of shear is now positive over the region. Sea surface temperature is 29-31C and the ocean heat content over southwest Bay of Bengal is 80-90 kj/cm2. The relative vorticity at 850 HPA level is (15-20*10-5S-1) and upper level divergence (10-20) around the system center is also favorable for intensification. The system lies to the south of tropospheric ridge, which roughly runs along 15.0N at 200 HPA.

Storm surge of about 1-2 metres above the astronomical tide may inundate the low lying areas of Nellore & Prakasam districts of Andhra pradesh and Tiruvallur, Chennai & Kanchipuram districts at the time of landfall.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46907
541. hydrus
2:42 PM GMT on November 06, 2010
Quoting Neapolitan:
I see that NOAA has upped the odds on TC formation for the CATL blob. Not the one around 12N/30W that some have been tracking for several days, nor the one to the west of that, but rather the swirl roughly centered at 27N/48W. ASCAT may catch it in a few hours, so we'll have a better idea; meanwhile, 850 mb vorticity is evident. The whole thing is a bit far north, but it's sinking southward, so we may have something to watch in a day or two...
..Does this look familiar?...If this were to happen, there will be some more action for sure..
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22583
540. hydrus
2:32 PM GMT on November 06, 2010
Quoting Cat5Hurricane250:
32 this morning in Tallahassee
It was a toasty 23 degrees here on the plateau...:)
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22583
539. hydrus
2:31 PM GMT on November 06, 2010
Quoting Neapolitan:
I see that NOAA has upped the odds on TC formation for the CATL blob. Not the one around 12N/30W that some have been tracking for several days, nor the one to the west of that, but rather the swirl roughly centered at 27N/48W. ASCAT may catch it in a few hours, so we'll have a better idea; meanwhile, 850 mb vorticity is evident. The whole thing is a bit far north, but it's sinking southward, so we may have something to watch in a day or two...
LOL...November the 6th and we are watching Central Atlantic blobs...Quite fascinating actually...
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22583
538. ShenValleyFlyFish
2:27 PM GMT on November 06, 2010
Quoting Bordonaro:

That is all it was a dream!!
MLK had a dream too. I like his better.
Member Since: September 9, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 4687

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