Rains abate in Haiti as Tomas weakens

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 8:24 PM GMT on November 05, 2010

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Data from this afternoon's flight by the Hurricane Hunters shows that Tomas may have weakened to a tropical storm, though NHC is maintaining it as a hurricane in their 5pm advisory. The 3:28pm center fix found that Tomas' pressure had risen to 992 mb, and the top surface winds seen by the SFMR instrument were 64 mph. Highest winds at 10,000 feet were 74 mph, supporting reducing Tomas' status from hurricane to tropical storm--though it is possible that the aircraft did not sample the strongest winds of Tomas. The Gran Piedra, Cuba radar shows fewer echoes than this morning, and satellite loops also reveal a weakened storm, with much less heavy thunderstorm activity near the center. The weakening was probably due to the fact the center of Tomas passed very close to the rugged terrain of Haiti's southwest peninsula, and the rough mountains disrupted the flow into the developing eyewall of the hurricane. Conditions remain favorable for intensification, though, with wind shear a moderate 10 - 20 knots, and SSTs a very warm 29.5°C.


Figure 1. Visible MODIS satellite image taken by NASA's Terra satellite at 11:30am EDT November 5, 2010. image credit: NASA.

Impact on Hispaniola and Cuba
A trough of low pressure over the Eastern U.S. is drawing Tomas northeastward at 12 mph, and this forward speed will gradually increase to 15 mph by early Saturday morning. Tropical storm force winds of 39+ mph extend out about 140 miles to the east, and Tomas is probably bringing tropical storm force winds to the tip of eastern Cuba and Haiti's northwest peninsula at present. Rainfall is the primary concern from Tomas, though, not wind. Satellite estimates (Figure 2) indicate that Tomas dumped up to 4 - 6 inches of rain as of 8am EDT on much of southen Haiti; an additional 1 - 3 inches has probably fallen since then. However, the band of heavy rain to the south of Haiti that appeared poised to give southern Haiti an additional 3 - 6 inches of rain today got disrupted when Tomas' center brushed the mountainous tip of southwest Haiti. Thus, it appears the worst of the rain is over for Haiti. An additional 1 - 2 inches is possible in isolated regions, judging from recent satellite data. Preliminary news reports I've heard from Port-au-Prince indicate that the earthquake zone weathered the storm with no major loss of life. Severe flooding was reported on Haiti's southwest peninsula, with AP video showing 4 feet of water flowing through the streets of Leogane, 20 miles west of Port-au-Prince. It remains to be seen how the rest of Haiti fared, as satellite estimates of rainfall are often low, and do not properly measure the heavier rains that can fall in mountainous regions. A band of heavy rain is over the Dominican Republic this afternoon, and total rainfall amounts approaching ten inches in the mountains regions will likely cause dangerous flooding and mudslides in that country this afternoon and this evening.


Figure 2. Satellite-estimated rain amounts for the 24-hour period ending at 8am EDT Friday, November 5, 2010. Rainfall amounts of 4 - 6 inches (green colors) occurred over Costa Rica, the southwestern peninsula of Haiti, and isolated regions of the Dominican Republic and the rest of Haiti. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Impact on the Southeast Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands
Although Tomas has been weakened by its close encounter with Haiti and now Cuba, the storm is in a favorable environment for re-intensification. I expect Tomas will re-intensify back to 85 mph winds by 2am EDT Saturday, as it passes through the Southeast Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands. Once Tomas pushes north of the islands on Sunday, the storm should weaken quickly, as wind shear is expected to rise to a very high 50 knots.

Tomas the second most damaging hurricane in St. Lucia history
Prime Minister Stephenson King announced yesterday that damage on the island of St.Lucia was $185 million--five times higher than earlier estimates. This sum is 19% of St. Lucia's GDP, and is the second most expensive hurricane ever for the island. Tomas damaged 10,000 homes and killed 14 people during its rampage over the island last Saturday. St. Lucia received the full brunt of the northern eyewall of Tomas as it intensified, and the St. Lucia weather service reported that sustained winds of 90 - 95 mph affected the island. Power has been restored to 90% of the island and most of the tourist facilities have reopened, however.

Tomas is the strongest hurricane to affect St. Lucia since Category 1 Hurricane Dean of 2007 brought 90 mph winds to the island. Dean killed one person and did $6.4 million in damage--0.5% of the nation's GDP. The island's strongest hurricane since accurate records began in 1851 was Hurricane Allen of 1980, which struck as a Category 3 hurricane with 130 mph winds. Allen killed 18 people on St.Lucia, and caused catastrophic damage of $235 million dollars ($613 million 2010 dollars.) This was 177% of the nation's GDP that year. The deadliest hurricane in St. Lucia history was the Category 5 Great Hurricane of 1780, which killed approximately 700 people. The Great Hurricane of 1780 was the Atlantic's deadliest hurricane of all-time, with 22,000 fatalities, mostly in the Lesser Antilles Islands.


Figure 3. Damage on St. Lucia from Hurricane Tomas. Image credit: St. Lucia Star.

Organizations Active in Haitian Relief Efforts:
Portlight disaster relief has shipped their mobile kitchen to Quisqueya, Haiti, and the kitchen will be ready to feed 500 people per day.
Lambi Fund of Haiti
Haiti Hope Fund
Catholic Relief Services of Haiti

Next update
I'll have an update Saturday morning.

My post on Haiti's hurricane history is now a permanent link in the "Articles of interest" section on our Tropical & Hurricane web page.

Jeff Masters

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Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

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Quoting JLPR2:
We got some happy areas in the CATL.
no worries now, but in the future(next week or so) maybe
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


lol, time for someone to update their computer :P


Come on Cody, don't go back and modify and say they were there all the time. LOL Look at your post #271.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 68 Comments: 25030
Quoting Orcasystems:


Think About It

After Monday and Tuesday... even the calendar says - W T F .


Nice, Orca. LMAO!
Member Since: July 23, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 12414
Quoting JLPR2:


XD
I see three blank comments, empty comments aren't interesting. :\
i understand, im so tired instead of modifying my comment i qouted it, which i didnt want to do so i put i blank
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Quoting Grothar:


How do, PSL? Blog is so quiet. Not even a good argument.


LOL. Perhaps the energy was spent earlier. Doing well. Are you finding the cooler weather agreeable?
Member Since: July 23, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 12414
283. JLPR2
Quoting Grothar:
Guys, if you all keep posting these red X's it is going to be a long night.


XD
I see three blank comments, empty comments aren't interesting. :\
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8482
Quoting Grothar:
What do you all think of this????



Think About It

After Monday and Tuesday... even the calendar says - W T F .
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26505
.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Season's a bust
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What do you all think of this????

Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 68 Comments: 25030
Quoting BahaHurican:
Yeah, it was kinda hard saying that with a straight face... lol

But u and I r saying the same thing, only different[ly].... I was about to post, "u tell 'em, Dean0!"

I vaguely recall somebody changing their forecast of 21 named storms to, oh, 14 or something - just before the period where we had 8 or 10 named storms in a row without a break.... guess that person is kinda sorry they didn't stick by their guns now... lol
yeah guess so, my prediction have drifted back and forth between
17 to 23 Storms, 9 to 13 Hurricanes, 5 to 7 Major hurricanes. i finally settled back in with my prediction of 21, 13, and 6 back in late september... Yawn, seems like everything is slow, groggy, and tiring on the blog today as now we know for sure Tomas will peak at cat.1 today and and miss Haiti to the west, but cause a lot of mudslides, flooding, and a few fatalities. :0 Yawn...
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Quoting Grothar:
Guys, if you all keep posting these red X's it is going to be a long night.


lol, time for someone to update their computer :P
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 112 Comments: 31314
...TOMAS CONTINUING TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN OVER HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO...

11:00 PM EDT Fri Nov 5
Location: 20.8°N 72.8°W
Max sustained: 75 mph
Moving: NE at 13 mph
Min pressure: 994 mb
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 112 Comments: 31314
Guys, if you all keep posting these red X's it is going to be a long night.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 68 Comments: 25030
11PM...Still at 75 mph

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 112 Comments: 31314
Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:


Yeah, it's a bump and grind. Got some tunes goin' Keep.

Evening Grothar!


How do, PSL? Blog is so quiet. Not even a good argument.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 68 Comments: 25030
272. JLPR2
We got some happy areas in the CATL.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8482
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 112 Comments: 31314
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269. mbjjm
Live radio stream Radio Turks and Cacios

Lots of persons heading to shelthers, the eastern shift of Tomas has gotten persons nervous there,they were only expecting T.S conditions
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267. mbjjm
Quoting aspectre:
Okay, what the heck is TCI?


The east of the Bahamas, North of Haiti

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
sorry, a bit tired, didnt realize sarcasm was intended.
Yeah, it was kinda hard saying that with a straight face... lol

But u and I r saying the same thing, only different[ly].... I was about to post, "u tell 'em, Dean0!"

I vaguely recall somebody changing their forecast of 21 named storms to, oh, 14 or something - just before the period where we had 8 or 10 named storms in a row without a break.... guess that person is kinda sorry they didn't stick by their guns now... lol
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21147
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
quiet on here
i guess everyones out animal dancing


Yeah, it's a bump and grind. Got some tunes goin' Keep.

Evening Grothar!
Member Since: July 23, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 12414
Quoting BahaHurican:
Yeah, Grothar... we've been looking at that. Some people think it will swing north before approaching the CAR.

Wouldn't it be... ironic.... if the worst US landfall of the season came from a November storm? I wonder how precedented that would be... lol



Strongest November hurricane: Lenny, 1999, November 13-23. 155 mph, 933 mbar. Also notable for its eastward motion.

Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 68 Comments: 25030
Quoting Grothar:
Look to the right of the screen.

oh boy. the story continues i guess, onto virginie...
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Quoting HurricaneDean07:
I dont, 19 Storms, 21 Depressions, 3rd Most Active Hurricane Season on Record.
not a bust!!! hyperactive!
sorry, a bit tired, didnt realize sarcasm was intended.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Yeah, Grothar... we've been looking at that. Some people think it will swing north before approaching the CAR.

Wouldn't it be... ironic.... if the worst US landfall of the season came from a November storm? I wonder how precedented that would be... lol
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21147
Look to the right of the screen.

Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 68 Comments: 25030
TCI = Turks and Caicos Islands. CaicosRetiredSailor lives there.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21147
Quoting BahaHurican:
LOL... got to think about that one hard, Taz....
I dont, 19 Storms, 21 Depressions, 3rd Most Active Hurricane Season on Record.
not a bust!!! hyperactive!
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Okay, what the heck is TCI?
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
The last HH left a couple of hours ago, but it's pretty clear that Tomas is strengthening once again as he pulls farther away from the hills of Haiti and Cuba: he's been throwing up some very high and cold cloud tops over the past several satellite frames, and he's become markedly more symmetrical than he was a few hours ago. As mentioned earlier, ATCF had lowered him to a TS, but has brought him back to a hurricane; it'll be interesting to see what NHC does here in the next half hour...
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Quoting Tazmanian:
do any one think this seasone is a bust any more lol
LOL... got to think about that one hard, Taz....
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21147
253. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #13
SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM JAL (BOB05-2010)
5:30 AM IST November 6 2010
==========================================

SUBJECT: Severe Cyclone Jal Over Southeast Bay Of Bengal

Cyclone Warning for North Tamil Nadu and South Andhra Pradesh Coasts-Orange Message

At 0:00 AM UTC, The cyclonic storm, ‘JAL’ over southeast Bay of Bengal moved west-northwestward and intensified into Severe Cyclonic storm. Severe Cyclonic Storm Jal lays centered near 10.0N 86.0E, or about 550 km east northeast of Trincomalee (Sri Lanka), 700 km east-southeast of Chennai and 850 km southeast of Nellore.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 55 knots with gusts of 65 knots. The central pressure is 990 hPa. The state of the sea is very high around the system's center.

Animation of past 24 hrs INSAT imagery indicates increase in deep convection and cloud mass is more organized. The Dvorak intensity is T3.5. The cloud dense overcast with well defined banding features. Intense to very intense convection around the center and broken intense to very intense convection between 6.0N to 15.5N and wet of 89.0E. The lowest cloud top temperature due to convection is around -80C to -85C.

It would intensify further into a very severe cyclonic storm. The system would move west-northwestwards and cross north Tamil Nadu and south Andhra Pradesh coasts between Puducherry and Nellore close to Chennai by Sunday night.

Forecast and Intensity
=========================

3 HRS: 10.5N 85.5E - 55 knots (Severe Cyclonic Storm)
9 HRS: 11.0N 85.0E - 60 knots (Severe Cyclonic Storm)
33 HRS: 13.0N 82.0E - 65 knots (Very Severe Cyclonic Storm)
57 HRS: 15.0N 79.0E - 30 knots (Deep Depression)

Vertical wind shear of horizontal wind over the region is low to moderate. 24 hour tendency of vertical wind shear shows negative over north of the system during past 24 hours. Sea surface temperature is 29-31C and the ocean heat content over south Bay of Benal 90-100 kj/cm2 which is favorable for intensification. The relative vorticity at 850 HPA level is 15-20*10-5S-1) and upper level divergence around the system center is also favorable for intensification. The system lies to the south of tropospheric ridge, which roughly runs along 15.0N at 200 HPA level.

Storm surge of about 1-2 metres above the astronomical tide may inundate the low lying areas of Nellore & Prakasam districts of Andhra pradesh and Tiruvallur, Chennai & Kanchipuram districts at the time of landfall.
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Hey, I'm back. It looks like the easterly swing by Tomas came early enough to put the TCI under greater threat than expected. Plus it looks like there's been a new blowup of convection to the NE of the centre. I hope those winds stay down under 80 mph...
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21147
240 Tazmanian "Does anyone think this season is a bust anymore? lol"

meh... We ain't even close to HurricaneOmega yet.
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
What may become "Virgine" seems to be getting its act together tonight, near 34W 11N:


Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 112 Comments: 31314
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
quiet on here
i guess everyones out animal dancing


Or we have something else better to do besides sit around on a blog all day :P
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 112 Comments: 31314
What's with all these strong winds???









Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 112 Comments: 31314
quiet on here
i guess everyones out animal dancing
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 168 Comments: 53285
Well it has been a long day so I am going to get some sleep now. My head is right by an open window so if the wind picks up it will wake me and I will report in. Goodnight for now.
CRS
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Poor Haiti.They jst can't seem to get a break.
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Quoting Tazmanian:
do any one think this seasone is a bust any more lol


No....

Complete Update


AOI
AOI AOI AOI

AOI AOI AOI

TSPIN BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26505
do any one think this seasone is a bust any more lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26505
HurricaneTomas's heading turned eastward to (8.7degrees north of) dueEast
from it's previous heading of (1.8degrees north of) NorthNorthEast
H.Tomas's average speed moving between its last 2 reported positions increased to ~15.3mph(~24.7km/h) from its previous travel speed of ~12.3mph(~19.8km/h)
TS.Tomas
5Nov 12amGMT - 16.9n75.9w - 60mph(~96.6km/h) - - 993mb - NHC.Adv.#27A
5Nov 03amGMT - 17.3n75.5w - 65mph(~104.6km/h) - 989mb - NHC.Adv.#28
5Nov 06amGMT - 17.9n75.3w - 65mph(~104.6km/h) - 989mb - NHC.Adv.#28A
H.Tomas
5Nov 09amGMT - 18.1n74.9w - 80mph(~128.7km/h) - 984mb - NHC.Adv.#29
5Nov 12pmGMT - 18.8n74.7w - 85mph(~136.8km/h) - 987mb - NHC.Adv.#2
5Nov 03pmGMT - 19.1n74.4w - 85mph(~136.8km/h) - 987mb - NHC.Adv.#30
5Nov 06pmGMT - 19.8n74.0w - 85mph(~136.8km/h) - 987mb - NHC.Adv.#30A
5Nov 09pmGMT - 20.3n73.8w - 75mph(~120.7km/h) - 991mb - NHC.Adv.#31
6Nov 12amGMT - 20.4n73.1w - 75mph(~120.7km/h) - 994mb - NHC.Adv.#31A

Copy&paste 16.9n75.9w, 17.3n75.5w, 17.9n75.3w, 18.1n74.9w, 18.8n74.7w-19.1n74.4w, 19.1n74.4w-19.8n74.0w, 19.8n74.0w-20.3n73.8w, 20.3n73.8w-20.4n73.1w, cri, gdt, ngd into the GreatCircleMapper for a look at the headings and the distances traveled over the last 12^hours.

Using straightline projection upon the speed&heading averaged
over the 3hours spanning the last two reported positions:
~12&1/2 days from now to Tiouilit ,Mauritania, Africa
Copy&paste 20.3n73.8w-20.4n73.1w, cri, nkc, 20.4n73.1w-18.75n16.15w into the GreatCircleMapper if ya wanna check. The easternmost line-segment is the straightline projection.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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