Rains abate in Haiti as Tomas weakens

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 8:24 PM GMT on November 05, 2010

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Data from this afternoon's flight by the Hurricane Hunters shows that Tomas may have weakened to a tropical storm, though NHC is maintaining it as a hurricane in their 5pm advisory. The 3:28pm center fix found that Tomas' pressure had risen to 992 mb, and the top surface winds seen by the SFMR instrument were 64 mph. Highest winds at 10,000 feet were 74 mph, supporting reducing Tomas' status from hurricane to tropical storm--though it is possible that the aircraft did not sample the strongest winds of Tomas. The Gran Piedra, Cuba radar shows fewer echoes than this morning, and satellite loops also reveal a weakened storm, with much less heavy thunderstorm activity near the center. The weakening was probably due to the fact the center of Tomas passed very close to the rugged terrain of Haiti's southwest peninsula, and the rough mountains disrupted the flow into the developing eyewall of the hurricane. Conditions remain favorable for intensification, though, with wind shear a moderate 10 - 20 knots, and SSTs a very warm 29.5°C.


Figure 1. Visible MODIS satellite image taken by NASA's Terra satellite at 11:30am EDT November 5, 2010. image credit: NASA.

Impact on Hispaniola and Cuba
A trough of low pressure over the Eastern U.S. is drawing Tomas northeastward at 12 mph, and this forward speed will gradually increase to 15 mph by early Saturday morning. Tropical storm force winds of 39+ mph extend out about 140 miles to the east, and Tomas is probably bringing tropical storm force winds to the tip of eastern Cuba and Haiti's northwest peninsula at present. Rainfall is the primary concern from Tomas, though, not wind. Satellite estimates (Figure 2) indicate that Tomas dumped up to 4 - 6 inches of rain as of 8am EDT on much of southen Haiti; an additional 1 - 3 inches has probably fallen since then. However, the band of heavy rain to the south of Haiti that appeared poised to give southern Haiti an additional 3 - 6 inches of rain today got disrupted when Tomas' center brushed the mountainous tip of southwest Haiti. Thus, it appears the worst of the rain is over for Haiti. An additional 1 - 2 inches is possible in isolated regions, judging from recent satellite data. Preliminary news reports I've heard from Port-au-Prince indicate that the earthquake zone weathered the storm with no major loss of life. Severe flooding was reported on Haiti's southwest peninsula, with AP video showing 4 feet of water flowing through the streets of Leogane, 20 miles west of Port-au-Prince. It remains to be seen how the rest of Haiti fared, as satellite estimates of rainfall are often low, and do not properly measure the heavier rains that can fall in mountainous regions. A band of heavy rain is over the Dominican Republic this afternoon, and total rainfall amounts approaching ten inches in the mountains regions will likely cause dangerous flooding and mudslides in that country this afternoon and this evening.


Figure 2. Satellite-estimated rain amounts for the 24-hour period ending at 8am EDT Friday, November 5, 2010. Rainfall amounts of 4 - 6 inches (green colors) occurred over Costa Rica, the southwestern peninsula of Haiti, and isolated regions of the Dominican Republic and the rest of Haiti. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Impact on the Southeast Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands
Although Tomas has been weakened by its close encounter with Haiti and now Cuba, the storm is in a favorable environment for re-intensification. I expect Tomas will re-intensify back to 85 mph winds by 2am EDT Saturday, as it passes through the Southeast Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands. Once Tomas pushes north of the islands on Sunday, the storm should weaken quickly, as wind shear is expected to rise to a very high 50 knots.

Tomas the second most damaging hurricane in St. Lucia history
Prime Minister Stephenson King announced yesterday that damage on the island of St.Lucia was $185 million--five times higher than earlier estimates. This sum is 19% of St. Lucia's GDP, and is the second most expensive hurricane ever for the island. Tomas damaged 10,000 homes and killed 14 people during its rampage over the island last Saturday. St. Lucia received the full brunt of the northern eyewall of Tomas as it intensified, and the St. Lucia weather service reported that sustained winds of 90 - 95 mph affected the island. Power has been restored to 90% of the island and most of the tourist facilities have reopened, however.

Tomas is the strongest hurricane to affect St. Lucia since Category 1 Hurricane Dean of 2007 brought 90 mph winds to the island. Dean killed one person and did $6.4 million in damage--0.5% of the nation's GDP. The island's strongest hurricane since accurate records began in 1851 was Hurricane Allen of 1980, which struck as a Category 3 hurricane with 130 mph winds. Allen killed 18 people on St.Lucia, and caused catastrophic damage of $235 million dollars ($613 million 2010 dollars.) This was 177% of the nation's GDP that year. The deadliest hurricane in St. Lucia history was the Category 5 Great Hurricane of 1780, which killed approximately 700 people. The Great Hurricane of 1780 was the Atlantic's deadliest hurricane of all-time, with 22,000 fatalities, mostly in the Lesser Antilles Islands.


Figure 3. Damage on St. Lucia from Hurricane Tomas. Image credit: St. Lucia Star.

Organizations Active in Haitian Relief Efforts:
Portlight disaster relief has shipped their mobile kitchen to Quisqueya, Haiti, and the kitchen will be ready to feed 500 people per day.
Lambi Fund of Haiti
Haiti Hope Fund
Catholic Relief Services of Haiti

Next update
I'll have an update Saturday morning.

My post on Haiti's hurricane history is now a permanent link in the "Articles of interest" section on our Tropical & Hurricane web page.

Jeff Masters

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Passage over EastCaicos

TropicalStormTomas's heading turned northward to (2degrees north of) NorthEast
from it's previous heading of (10.3degrees north of) EastNorthEast
TS.Tomas's average speed moving between its last 2 reported positions decreased to ~15.7mph(~25.2km/h) from its previous travel speed of ~25.7mph(~41.3km/h)
H.Tomas
5Nov 09amGMT - 18.1n74.9w - 80mph(~128.7km/h) - 984mb - NHC.Adv.#29
5Nov 12pmGMT - 18.8n74.7w - 85mph(~136.8km/h) - 987mb - NHC.Adv.#29A
5Nov 03pmGMT - 19.1n74.4w - 85mph(~136.8km/h) - 987mb - NHC.Adv.#30
5Nov 06pmGMT - 19.8n74.0w - 85mph(~136.8km/h) - 987mb - NHC.Adv.#30A
5Nov 09pmGMT - 20.3n73.8w - 75mph(~120.7km/h) - 991mb - NHC.Adv.#31
6Nov 12amGMT - 20.4n73.1w - 75mph(~120.7km/h) - 994mb - NHC.Adv.#31A
6Nov 03amGMT - 20.8n72.8w - 75mph(~120.7km/h) - 994mb - NHC.Adv.#32
6Nov 06amGMT - 21.4n71.8w - 75mph(~120.7km/h) - 992mb - NHC.Adv.#32A
TS.Tomas
6Nov 09amGMT - 21.9n71.3w - 70mph(~112.7km/h) - 993mb - NHC.Adv.#33

Copy&paste 18.1n74.9w, 18.8n74.7w, 19.1n74.4w, 19.8n74.0w, 20.3n73.8w-20.4n73.1w, 20.4n73.1w-20.8n72.8w, 20.8n72.8w-21.4n71.8w, 21.4n71.8w-21.9n71.3w, mds, xsc, ngd into the GreatCircleMapper for a look at the headings and the distances traveled over the last 12^hours.
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DRY AIR for Tomas finally arrives.
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its actually moving east it looks like out there at 10N/35w
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how do i cancel rich text mode
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Rotation at ~10n35w ???
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Quoting OracleDeAtlantis:
It's amazing to watch this thing shoot the pass between islands. It was almost as if it had a mind of its own, but of course that's ridiculous, yet if you watch the movie you showed, it reminds me of another hurricane that did this exact sort of tip-toe dance, but it's name escapes me.

What's interesting is to watch the preciptable water, note the squeeze play going on. It's almost as if Tomas is being pinched off, in therms of norther escape, at least temporarily.




Tomas will find a solution
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Quoting severstorm:

wow did not expect it to get this chilly.


ur wind went calm
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an easterly wave sweeps in near the end.
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wow did not expect it to get this chilly.
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Quoting remembercleo:
stationary for the last couple hours..
It's amazing to watch this thing shoot the pass between islands. It was almost as if it had a mind of its own, but of course that's ridiculous, yet if you watch the movie you showed, it reminds me of another hurricane that did this exact sort of tip-toe dance, but it's name escapes me.

What's interesting is to watch the preciptable water, note the squeeze play going on. It's almost as if Tomas is being pinched off, in therms of norther escape, at least temporarily.



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stationary for the last couple hours..
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OK, things going bump in the night enough to wake me up.
I am somewhat protected from the East, I show 25 gusting to 35 mph from the NNE with rain here on Provo.
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475. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #14
SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM JAL (BOB05-2010)
8:30 AM IST November 6 2010
==========================================

SUBJECT: Severe Cyclone Jal Over Southwest Bay Of Bengal

Cyclone Warning for North Tamil Nadu and South Andhra Pradesh Coasts-Orange

At 3:00 AM UTC, Severe Cyclonic Storm Jal remained practically stationary and lay centered over southwest Bay of Bengal near 10.0N 85.5E, or about 500 km east-northeast of Trincomalee (Sri Lanka), 650 km east-southeast of Chennai and 750 km southeast of Nellore.

It would intensify further, move west-northwestwards and cross north Tamil Nadu and south Andhra Pradesh coasts between Puducherry and Nellore close to Chennai by Sunday night.

Storm surge of about 1-2 metres above the astronomical tide may inundate the low lying areas of Nellore & Prakasam districts of Andhra pradesh and Tiruvallur, Chennai & Kanchipuram districts at the time of landfall.
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does it stall and become better organized?
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472. JLPR2


Jeez, this is one of those times when I am glad I live on the NE not the SW. XD

Well, goodnight everyone!
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8747
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More likely H.Tomas was curving ever more eastward between the last 2 reported positions, and the center went south of SouthCaicos toward GrandTurk.
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Quoting aspectre:
HurricaneTomas's heading turned eastward to (10.3degrees north of) EastNorthEast
from it's previous heading of (9.8degrees north of) NorthEast
H.Tomas's average speed moving between its last 2 reported positions increased to ~25.7mph(~41.3km/h) from its previous travel speed of ~11.3mph(~18.2km/h)
TS.Tomas
5Nov 06amGMT - 17.9n75.3w - 65mph(~104.6km/h) - 989mb - NHC.Adv.#28A
H.Tomas
5Nov 09amGMT - 18.1n74.9w - 80mph(~128.7km/h) - 984mb - NHC.Adv.#29
5Nov 12pmGMT - 18.8n74.7w - 85mph(~136.8km/h) - 987mb - NHC.Adv.#29A
5Nov 03pmGMT - 19.1n74.4w - 85mph(~136.8km/h) - 987mb - NHC.Adv.#30
5Nov 06pmGMT - 19.8n74.0w - 85mph(~136.8km/h) - 987mb - NHC.Adv.#30A
5Nov 09pmGMT - 20.3n73.8w - 75mph(~120.7km/h) - 991mb - NHC.Adv.#31
6Nov 12amGMT - 20.4n73.1w - 75mph(~120.7km/h) - 994mb - NHC.Adv.#31A
6Nov 03amGMT - 20.8n72.8w - 75mph(~120.7km/h) - 994mb - NHC.Adv.#32
6Nov 06amGMT - 21.4n71.8w - 75mph(~120.7km/h) - 992mb - NHC.Adv.#32A

Copy&paste 17.9n75.3w, 18.1n74.9w, 18.8n74.7w, 19.1n74.4w, 19.8n74.0w-20.3n73.8w, 20.3n73.8w-20.4n73.1w, 20.4n73.1w-20.8n72.8w, 20.8n72.8w-21.4n71.8w, cri, xsc, ngd, 21.4n71.8w-21.566n71.524w into the GreatCircleMapper for a look at the headings and the distances traveled over the last 12^hours.

Using straightline projection upon the speed&heading averaged
over the 3hours spanning the last two reported positions:
~5minutes from now to passage between EastCaicos and SouthCaicos

^ The easternmost line-segment is the straightline projection.


now what? it looks like on sat. pic it recently came to a screeching halt
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nite all
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Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:


Yet again, the nice folk here, have kept me awake longer than I'd planned.

I wish you all a good night. Hope to talk tomorrow. Thanks for the fun!


Gnite....tell that jarhead tater man sorry I missed him!!
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HurricaneTomas's heading turned eastward to (10.3degrees north of) EastNorthEast
from it's previous heading of (9.8degrees north of) NorthEast
H.Tomas's average speed moving between its last 2 reported positions increased to ~25.7mph(~41.3km/h) from its previous travel speed of ~11.3mph(~18.2km/h)
TS.Tomas
5Nov 06amGMT - 17.9n75.3w - 65mph(~104.6km/h) - 989mb - NHC.Adv.#28A
H.Tomas
5Nov 09amGMT - 18.1n74.9w - 80mph(~128.7km/h) - 984mb - NHC.Adv.#29
5Nov 12pmGMT - 18.8n74.7w - 85mph(~136.8km/h) - 987mb - NHC.Adv.#29A
5Nov 03pmGMT - 19.1n74.4w - 85mph(~136.8km/h) - 987mb - NHC.Adv.#30
5Nov 06pmGMT - 19.8n74.0w - 85mph(~136.8km/h) - 987mb - NHC.Adv.#30A
5Nov 09pmGMT - 20.3n73.8w - 75mph(~120.7km/h) - 991mb - NHC.Adv.#31
6Nov 12amGMT - 20.4n73.1w - 75mph(~120.7km/h) - 994mb - NHC.Adv.#31A
6Nov 03amGMT - 20.8n72.8w - 75mph(~120.7km/h) - 994mb - NHC.Adv.#32
6Nov 06amGMT - 21.4n71.8w - 75mph(~120.7km/h) - 992mb - NHC.Adv.#32A

Copy&paste 17.9n75.3w, 18.1n74.9w, 18.8n74.7w, 19.1n74.4w, 19.8n74.0w-20.3n73.8w, 20.3n73.8w-20.4n73.1w, 20.4n73.1w-20.8n72.8w, 20.8n72.8w-21.4n71.8w, cri, xsc, ngd, 21.4n71.8w-21.566n71.524w into the GreatCircleMapper for a look at the headings and the distances traveled over the last 12^hours.

Using straightline projection upon the speed&heading averaged
over the 3hours spanning the last two reported positions:
~5minutes from now to passage between EastCaicos and SouthCaicos

^ The easternmost line-segment is the straightline projection.
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Yet again, the nice folk here, have kept me awake longer than I'd planned.

I wish you all a good night. Hope to talk tomorrow. Thanks for the fun!
Member Since: July 23, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 12414
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000
WTNT31 KNHC 060556
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE TOMAS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 32A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
200 AM EDT SAT NOV 06 2010

...TOMAS NEARING THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.4N 71.8W
ABOUT 90 MI...150 KM ENE OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES
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462. JLPR2
Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:


Not many cold temps to be had where you are. Do you still have rain?.


Stopped raining in my area a few hours ago.
But I'm in NE PR, not much rain to speak of as of yet.

Quoting traumaboyy:


100....Howdy stranger!!


Howdy!
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8747
Quoting LostTomorrows:
As a Canadian, you guys talking about all this "cold weather" has me jealous... seeing as how is just bloody snowed here. So, quiet! Hahah.

PS: Tomas looks like he's trying another hand at strengthening before the big shear starts kicking in. He might just get to a strong category one hurricane, but I doubt he'd get to two.

PPS: Anyone else curious about that persistant wave of convective goodness out in the southeastern Atlantic, just beyond the Cape Verdes? It looks like it wants to be a girl storm by the name of Virginie. I wonder if it will persist through tomorrow.


Wade back in. Good questions. I was trying to be humorous.
Member Since: July 23, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 12414
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Quoting JLPR2:


I would consider getting inside the fridge. xD


+100....Howdy stranger!!
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Quoting JLPR2:


I would consider getting inside the fridge. xD


Not many cold temps to be had where you are. Do you still have rain?.
Member Since: July 23, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 12414
true, but as I said the beer is on the porch. LOL
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454. JLPR2
Quoting geepy86:
Hang on....O.k it's 45 outside and 55 in the fridge. Needless to say the beer is on the porch.


I would consider getting inside the fridge. xD
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8747
Hang on....O.k it's 45 outside and 55 in the fridge. Needless to say the beer is on the porch.
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Quoting LostTomorrows:
As a Canadian, you guys talking about all this "cold weather" has me jealous... seeing as how is just bloody snowed here. So, quiet! Hahah.

PS: Tomas looks like he's trying another hand at strengthening before the big shear starts kicking in. He might just get to a strong category one hurricane, but I doubt he'd get to two.

PPS: Anyone else curious about that persistant wave of convective goodness out in the southeastern Atlantic, just beyond the Cape Verdes? It looks like it wants to be a girl storm by the name of Virginie. I wonder if it will persist through tomorrow.


LOL...just what we need to cap this amazing year ....a CV storm in November!!
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Quoting geepy86:
I'm still cold.


42 here now and wind a howlin!!

Only time of year when I don't like the fact that I wear pajamas to work!!
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Quoting LostTomorrows:
As a Canadian, you guys talking about all this "cold weather" has me jealous... seeing as how is just bloody snowed here. So, quiet! Hahah.

PS: Tomas looks like he's trying another hand at strengthening before the big shear starts kicking in. He might just get to a strong category one hurricane, but I doubt he'd get to two.

PPS: Anyone else curious about that persistant wave of convective goodness out in the southeastern Atlantic, just beyond the Cape Verdes? It looks like it wants to be a girl storm by the name of Virginie. I wonder if it will persist through tomorrow.


Ok: No thank you.

Agreed.

Possible.
Member Since: July 23, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 12414
Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:


Yes, the race to prove "I said it first".


This has certainly been an interesting year.....made everyone look like an idiot at times.....and hell....who's to say it is over.....still plenty of heat out there!!
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Quoting traumaboyy:


Miss it....usually dead or kids in here arguing over who knew best what the hurricanes were thinking...lol


Hi all. Yep, this blog is lots more fun tonite. Although I still do worry about those whose lives have just been turned upside down again. Has reminded me of what it's like to be hit by a 'cane - oof.
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I'm still cold.
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I think tomas is going north.
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As a Canadian, you guys talking about all this "cold weather" has me jealous... seeing as how is just bloody snowed here. So, quiet! Hahah.

PS: Tomas looks like he's trying another hand at strengthening before the big shear starts kicking in. He might just get to a strong category one hurricane, but I doubt he'd get to two.

PPS: Anyone else curious about that persistant wave of convective goodness out in the southeastern Atlantic, just beyond the Cape Verdes? It looks like it wants to be a girl storm by the name of Virginie. I wonder if it will persist through tomorrow.
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Quoting traumaboyy:


Miss it....usually dead or kids in here arguing over who knew best what the hurricanes were thinking...lol


Yes, the race to prove "I said it first".
Member Since: July 23, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 12414
Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:


Ah, I love the night crew. Good times!!


Miss it....usually dead or kids in here arguing over who knew best what the hurricanes were thinking...lol
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Ah, I love the night crew. Good times!!
Member Since: July 23, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 12414
Oh and I'm really cold not just glad to see you all. LMAO
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Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:


Put your clothes back on Sweetie. You should know better than to take advice from folk with mischievous minds. lol

I knew I was missing something. LOL
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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