Tomas gradually strengthening; 14 dead in St. Lucia from the storm

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:58 PM GMT on November 02, 2010

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The islands of St. Lucia, Barbados, and St. Vincent and the Grenadines continue to assess damage and clean up after Hurricane Tomas pounded the Lesser Antilles as a strengthening Category 1 hurricane with 90 - 95 mph winds on Saturday. St. Lucia was hardest hit, with fourteen people dead, many more missing, and damage estimated at $100 million--about 10% of the nation's GDP. Damage on neighboring St. Vincent was estimated at $62 million, which is 4% of that nation's GDP. The storm damaged 1,200 houses, and the northern half of the island, where most of the crops are, was badly hit, with no banana trees left standing and the plantain crop wiped out. Banana production employs 60% of the workforce on St. Vincent, and accounts for more than 50% of their exports. Also hard-hit was Barbados, where damage estimates are at $55 million, 1.5% of the nation's GDP. Tomas may be the most damaging storm to affect the island since Hurricane Janet of 1955. The havoc wreaked by Tomas in the Lesser Antilles makes is likely that the name Tomas will be retired from the list of active hurricane names in the Atlantic.


Figure 1. Torrential rains from Tomas triggered massive flooding on St. Lucia that destroyed several bridges and severely damaged roads. Image credit: St. Lucia Star.

Tomas gradually strengthening
Satellite loops of Tomas show a considerably more organized storm than yesterday, with a modest but increasing amount of heavy thunderstorm activity. However, low-level spiral bands are limited, and upper-level outflow is weak, and Tomas is not in danger of building an eyewall today. Curacao radar shows that the echoes from Tomas are disorganized, with no spiral banding apparent. Wind shear has declined to a moderate 10 -15 knots and the atmosphere in the Caribbean has moistened over the past day, allowing Tomas to re-organize. A hurricane hunter aircraft is on its way to Tomas this morning, and will have a better estimate of the storm's strength by early this afternoon.


Figure 2. Curacao radar at 10:07am EDT on Tuesday, November 2, 2010, showed a large area of rain associated with Tomas over the central Caribbean, but these echoes were poorly organized.

Track forecast for Tomas
The ridge of high pressure pushing Tomas to the west has weakened, allowing Tomas to slow down slightly to a forward speed of 10 mph this morning. This speed will decrease further to 5 mph tonight, as a trough of low pressure approaches the eastern U.S. and breaks down the ridge. By Wednesday, the trough to Tomas' north should be able to pull the storm to the northwest. Tomas' outer spiral bands will bring heavy rains to southwestern Haiti and eastern Jamaica beginning on Thursday night. The computer models have come into better agreement that Tomas will turn more to the north-northeast by Friday, with Haiti or Jamaica the most likely landfall locations. NHC is giving Port-au-Prince, Haiti, a 50% chance of receiving tropical storm force winds, and a 6% chance of hurricane force winds. These odds are 45% and 7%, respectively for Kingston, Jamaica, and 23% and 3% for Santo Domingo in the Dominican Republic.

Tomas may stall
The models are increasingly suggesting the once Tomas begins moving to the north-northeast, the trough pulling the storm that direction will lift out, stranding Tomas in a region of weak steering currents. Tomas may then wander and dump heavy rains for several days, Saturday through Monday. Given recent model trends, I believe this is likely, but the exact location where Tomas might be stranded is uncertain. The NOGAPS model gives a nightmare scenario for Haiti, with Tomas remaining stationary just off the coast from Port-Au-Prince as a hurricane for many days. The UKMET stalls Tomas over the Turk and Caicos Islands, while the GFS, GFDL, and ECMWF models predict Tomas will stall several hundred miles north of Hispaniola and drift eastwards. It's reasonable to go with the model consensus and predict Tomas will pass over western Haiti and stall far enough north of the nation so that heavy rains will not linger over Hispaniola for many days. The uncertainties in the track forecast are greater than usual, though.

Intensity forecast for Tomas
Wind shear as diagnosed by the SHIPS model has dropped to the moderate range, 10 - 15 knots, and is predicted to stay low to moderate, 5 - 15 knots, for the remainder of the week. The relaxation of shear should allow Tomas to continue to re-organize over the next few days. Aiding this process will be an increasingly moist atmosphere. Dry air has decreased significantly over the past 24 hours, as seen on water vapor satellite imagery, and the models predict a very moist atmosphere will surround Tomas for the remainder of the week. With SSTs at a record warm 29.5°C and a very high ocean heat content, there is a substantial danger that Tomas will undergo a period of rapid intensification once it rebuilds its inner core and establishes an eyewall. This is not likely to happen today, but could occur as early as Wednesday night. This may give Tomas sufficient time to intensify into a major hurricane before landfall in Haiti or Jamaica, as predicted by the GFDL model. The most reasonable intensity forecast at this point is to call for a landfall on Friday at Category 2 strength, but Tomas could easily be anywhere from Category 1 to Category 3 hurricane strength on Friday. NHC is giving Tomas a 19% chance of reaching Category 3+ strength; I believe these odds are higher, 40%. With the atmosphere expected to be very moist, it is likely that Tomas will dump very heavy rains of 4 - 8 inches over much of Haiti, even if Tomas strikes as a tropical storm. Rains of this magnitude are capable of causing heavy loss of life due to extreme floods running down Haiti's deforested mountain slopes. Portlight.org is preparing to send their mobile kitchen with enough food to feed 500 people per day, if Tomas continues on its current forecast path.


Figure 3. Plot of all Category 1 and stronger hurricanes to pass within 50 miles of Barbados since reliable record keeping began in 1851. Image credit: NOAA Coastal Services Center.

Barbados hurricane history
Tomas is the strongest hurricane to affect Barbados since Category 3 Hurricane Allen of 1980, which passed just north of the island. Allen did $4 million in damage, compared to Tomas' $55 million. The deadliest hurricane in Barbados history was the Category 5 Great Hurricane of 1780, which killed approximately 4500 people on the island, and leveled every building, including the stone governor's mansion. The Great Hurricane of 1780 was also the Atlantic's deadliest hurricane of all-time, with 22,000 fatalities, mostly in the Lesser Antilles Islands.

Next update
I'll have an update Wednesday morning.

Jeff Masters

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Tomas seems to be coming a more Dominican Republic and PR player if the center relocates around 73.4W
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907. IKE
Just looked at the NHC coordinates...from the 5 am advisory...75.5W?

Go east to about 73.5W....Link
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Quoting scott39:
Tomas has a very broad area of circulation. With the untrained eye, there are a few spins.

That's what I am seeing too. One around 75W and another further east.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8436
ran the loop dont see no movement but it looks as if there is alittle shear coming from the sw. movement would be good
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I see models all over Haiti. Some are also more to the left and some are doing U turns. I would hate to be a forecaster at the NHC right now.
the outflow to the NE remains pretty impressive,

Is Tomas just big that its interaction with South America is impeding development?
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902. IKE
Quoting roleli:


Ok.. you saw it too.. Is this the movement to the north-east or are we seeing something else?


Don't see much movement, for now....

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Quoting roleli:


Ok.. you saw it too.. Is this the movement to the north-east or are we seeing something else?

That may be a new center forming
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Quoting IKE:
You can see the spin near 14N and 74W...Link

Looks bad for the islands. Flooding. Tomas should wind up retired.


Ok.. you saw it too.. Is this the movement to the north-east or are we seeing something else?
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Tomas will play Houdini and dissapears without a trace.
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Good Morning...
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Tomas has a very broad area of circulation. With the untrained eye, there are a few spins.
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 03 NOV 2010 Time : 101500 UTC
Lat : 13:32:23 N Lon : 75:35:13 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.2 /1000.8mb/ 49.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.8 2.8 2.8

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +3.2mb

Center Temp : +15.5C Cloud Region Temp : -26.0C

Scene Type : SHEAR (0.36^ TO DG)

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : FLAG

****************************************************
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
895. IKE
You can see the spin near 14N and 74W...Link

Looks bad for the islands. Flooding. Tomas should wind up retired.
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Tomas continues to dumbfound... guess that's why they call it forecasting. The NHC has all but said it...

"THE WEAKENING OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS IS DIFFICULT TO EXPLAIN."

and then further

"GIVEN THE ERRATIC BEHAVIOR OF THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE THUS FAR THIS IS A LOW-CONFIDENCE INTENSITY FORECAST"

Summary let's wait and see ..
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Goodmorning, Tomas is a splattered mess. " Step right up pick a coc any coc"!
Quoting IKE:
Convection starting to pop around the center of him. He may be firing up.

If that's the center then it's just SSW of Jamaica?
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891. Wots
Quoting islander101010:
wots lot more energy involved with tomas pictures from curacao show severe flooding


Thats right. It makes Tomas more dangerous.
If it (re) develops like Alex...
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wots lot more energy involved with tomas pictures from curacao show severe flooding not sure if it was tidal rain or a combo
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889. IKE
Convection starting to pop around the center of him. He may be firing up.
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888. Wots
Tomas reminds me this storm:

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UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 03 NOV 2010 Time : 094500 UTC
Lat : 13:31:26 N Lon : 75:33:07 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.3 / 999.6mb/ 51.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.9 2.6 2.3

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +3.2mb

Center Temp : +11.2C Cloud Region Temp : -28.5C

Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.29 ARC in DK GRAY
Maximum CURVED BAND with 0.48 ARC in DK GRAY
at Lat: 12:55:12 N Lon: 74:33:00 W

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : FLAG

****************************************************
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Morning, everyone. We had two inches of rain yesterday!! Love it!

I'm confused with Tomas. Will he be a hurricane or a TD? He is still likely to hit Haiti? This is a strange storm.
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885. IKE
A lot of convection in the Caribbean. Should get drawn north with the trough. This could still be a disaster for Haiti.

Wish this entire system would just skateaway/
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884. MahFL
Quoting LostTomorrows:
Suddenly I'm thinking the HH that will investigate Tomas in a couple of hours will find him to be stronger again, he looks better now than he did earlier in the evening, much more so. This is reminiscent of Wilma... she stalled out in the Carribean as a weak tropical storm before she exploded with category 5 fury. I don't think Tomas can be that furious, but hey, it's not impossible. 'Sides, he's massive, it takes a while for a sleeping giant to wake up, especially after it's been strangled and hacked at by wind shear and dry air.


Cat 5, really ?
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UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 03 NOV 2010 Time : 091500 UTC
Lat : 13:30:28 N Lon : 75:31:02 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.4 / 998.4mb/ 53.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.0 2.7 2.3

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +3.2mb

Center Temp : +2.4C Cloud Region Temp : -34.8C

Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.29 ARC in DK GRAY
Maximum CURVED BAND with 0.40 ARC in DK GRAY
at Lat: 12:30:00 N Lon: 76:18:35 W

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

****************************************************
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Very strange. I went to bed figuring there was a 70% chance I'd awaken to a TD, and--voila!--a TD he is. But what a strange and bipolar TD: born as an oddity in both time and place, he goes on to become a historical, sure-to-be-retired island hammer. After that, he sheds his convection, rests briefly, and starts rearming for his expected northern turn. But then, he steadily weakens even further, and is now a multi-vortex, mesoscale mass of messiness about which even the vaunted NHC is perplexed and dumbfounded.

Normally, this might be the end of the story...but models and forecasts are in general agreement that he will eventually get his act together and do More Bad Stuff in the days ahead.

Hmmm...

Odd that the NHC places his center at 13.5N/75.5W. I guess they know what they're doing, but it's hard not to place it among the rapidly developing cluster of thunderstorms at 13.5/72.5...or any of two or three other possible CoCs.

Reckon we'll see. And now, coffee...
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Good AM ALL -- as always, curious to see what the dawn brings -
Post876 - BahaHurricane
I guess that means "they just don't know"
certainly VERY confusing to me
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880. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
India Meteorological Department
-----------------------------------

The well marked low pressure area over south Andaman Sea now lies over southwest Andaman Sea and neighborhood. The system is likely to concentrate into a depression over the same area within next 24 hours. It may intensify further into a cyclonic storm and move west-northwestward towards north Tamilnadu and south Andhra Pradesh coasts.
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879. IKE
Quoting BahaHurican:
Morning all. This is an amazing discussion this a.m.

GIVEN THE ERRATIC BEHAVIOR OF THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE THUS
FAR...THIS IS A LOW-CONFIDENCE INTENSITY FORECAST. THE NOAA G-IV
JET IS CURRENTLY CONDUCTING A SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE MISSION AROUND
TOMAS WHICH SHOULD GIVE A BETTER ASSESSMENT OF THE DYNAMIC AND
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT.

THE HURRICANE HUNTERS FOUND A BROAD AREA OF LIGHT WINDS SURROUNDING
THE LOCATION OF THE MINIMUM PRESSURE...SO THERE IS SIGNIFICANT
UNCERTAINTY IN THE CENTER POSITION AND INITIAL MOTION. OUR BEST
GUESS AT THE LATTER IS 285/4.

Tomas is a genuinely anomalous storm; born at an unusual time in an irregular location, it's done very little and been very little of what has been expected....

Any thoughts on what's causing the disintegration?


(1)November.
(2)Prayers for Haiti.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I'll believe that TropicalCyclones move in sharp-angled zigzags...
...sometime after clapping my hands brings fairies to life.

So view the headings and travel speeds below through a skeptical lens.
TropicalDepressionTomas's heading turned northward to (0.6degrees north of) NorthWest
from it's previous heading of (11.1degrees west of) dueSouth
TD.Tomas's average speed moving between its last 2 reported positions decreased to ~9.7mph(~18.8km/h) from its previous travel speed of ~11.7mph(~18.8km/h)
TS.Tomas
2Nov. 09amGMT - 13.5n72.0w - 50mph_(~80.5km/h) - 1003mb - NHC.Adv.#17
2Nov. 12pmGMT - 13.4n72.2w - 45knots.(~83.3km/h) - 1003mb - ATCF
2Nov. 03pmGMT - 13.5n72.6w - 50mph_(~80.5km/h) - 1003mb - NHC.Adv.#18
2Nov. 06pmGMT - 13.4n74.2w - 35knots.(~64.8km/h) - 1006mb - ATCF
2Nov. 09pmGMT - 13.5n74.6w - 40mph_(~64.4km/h) - 1006mb - NHC.Adv.#19
3Nov. 12amGMT - 13.5n75.0w - 40mph_(~64.4km/h) - 1006mb - NHC.Adv.#19A
3Nov. 03amGMT - 13.7n75.1w - 40mph_(~64.4km/h) - 1006mb - NHC.Adv.#20
3Nov. 06amGMT - 13.2n75.2w - 40mph_(~64.4km/h) - 1006mb - NHC.Adv.#20A
TD.Tomas
3Nov. 09amGMT - 13.5n75.5w - 35mph_(~56.3km/h) - 1006mb - NHC.Adv.#21

Copy&paste 13.5n72.0w, 13.4n72.2w, 13.5n72.6w, 13.4n74.2w, 13.5n74.6w-13.5n75.0w, 13.5n75.0w-13.7n75.1w, 13.7n75.1w-13.2n75.2w, 13.2n75.2w-13.5n75.5w, peu, adz, pap into the GreatCircleMapper for a look at the headings and the distances traveled over the last 12^hours.
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
Maybe Tomas will just kill himself by S America storms this year don't like themselves very much
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Morning all. This is an amazing discussion this a.m.

GIVEN THE ERRATIC BEHAVIOR OF THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE THUS
FAR...THIS IS A LOW-CONFIDENCE INTENSITY FORECAST. THE NOAA G-IV
JET IS CURRENTLY CONDUCTING A SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE MISSION AROUND
TOMAS WHICH SHOULD GIVE A BETTER ASSESSMENT OF THE DYNAMIC AND
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT.

THE HURRICANE HUNTERS FOUND A BROAD AREA OF LIGHT WINDS SURROUNDING
THE LOCATION OF THE MINIMUM PRESSURE...SO THERE IS SIGNIFICANT
UNCERTAINTY IN THE CENTER POSITION AND INITIAL MOTION. OUR BEST
GUESS AT THE LATTER IS 285/4.

Tomas is a genuinely anomalous storm; born at an unusual time in an irregular location, it's done very little and been very little of what has been expected....

Any thoughts on what's causing the disintegration?
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875. IKE
...TOMAS WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION BUT STILL EXPECTED TO RESTRENGTHEN...
5:00 AM EDT Wed Nov 3
Location: 13.5°N 75.5°W
Max sustained: 35 mph
Moving: WNW at 5 mph
Min pressure: 1006 mb
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I hope St.Lucia are not getting this rain that we've been having all night but I think they probably are. That's all they need now.
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Quoting islander101010:
the cyclone is not following the forecast


Which one? NHC must be really confused right now.

Member Since: July 5, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1347
the cyclone is not following the forecast there are all kinds and this one has different faces
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871. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin
TROPICAL CYCLONE ANGGREK (01U)
15:00 PM WST November 3 2010
======================================

At 2:00 pm WST, Tropical Cyclone Anggrek, Category 1 (995 hPa) located at 14.2S 97.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 55 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west southwest at 6 knots

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.0/S0.0/24HRS

Gale Force Winds
=================
30 NM from the center in northern quadrant
70 NM from the center in southern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: 14.7S 95.7E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS: 15.0S 94.1E - 35 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS: 16.6S 90.4E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
72 HRS: 22.7S 90.1E - 25 knots (Tropical Low)

Additional Information
=======================
Microwave imagery at 1402, 1854, 2052 and 2212 have provided confidence in the overnight fix positions. The VIS imagery gives a reasonably clear cut banding of 0.6 yielding a DT of 3.0. The MET/PAT agree and FT is set at 3.0.

This mornings shear analysis shows the shear has become light however the system is now over margnal SSTs with a shallow 26 degree isotherm. Deep convection is confined to southern quadrants and it is likely that gales will also become confined to the southern quadrants over the next 24 hours.
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22L on the left (According to the NHC if these are in fact two separate systems)


Tomas south of Haiti.
Member Since: July 5, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1347
I'm seeing two main circulations, one leaving off where NHC had it at 13.5N, 72.6W (now ~13.5N,73.5W ) and the new one 13.4N, 75.3W

Either dealing with a decoupled storm (LLC and MLC separated by a large distance), or there are two individual LLC in this mess. Either explain the lack of organization.
Member Since: July 5, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1347
868. JLPR2
AL, 21, 2010110306, , BEST, 0, 134N, 753W, 30, 1006, TD

yeah...
And with that I'm off to bed, night all!
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Hmm, kind of surprised this didn't get going. Guess it will wait till tomorrow. However, Tomas has great structure, just needs deep ORGANIZED convection :P

I was wrong, ok scottsvb? Cut me some freakin slack and leave me alone.
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Either MLC or relocation around 73.5W, 13.5N; I believe their gap in data may be a result of tracking the wrong center.
Member Since: July 5, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1347
Quoting scottsvb:
Hmmm where is Reedzone.. didnt he say this would be a Hurricane by tonight. Of course he's hiding again and will say in a day or 2 he never said that (after he goes back and deletes posts).


You're pathetic - make a positive contribution, or get lost. Nobody wants to hear your useless, cowardly bashing.
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CentralAmerica is coming into play. The pointed corner jutting into the far center-left of the map is on the border between Honduras and Nicaragua.

TropicalStorms don't turn on a dime. Near certainty that the latest position is either relocation (ie NHC lost the center in previous hours) or reformation (new center arose while the old center collapsed).
So take the headings and travel speeds below with a LARGE grain of salt.
TropicalStormTomas's heading turned southward to (11.1degrees west of) dueSouth
from it's previous heading of (3.6degrees west of) NorthNorthWest
TS.Tomas's average speed moving between its last 2 reported positions increased to ~11.7mph(~18.8km/h) from its previous travel speed of ~5mph(~8km/h)
TS.Tomas
2Nov. 06amGMT - 13.6n71.3w - 40knots.(~74.1km/h) - 1003mb - ATCF
2Nov. 09amGMT - 13.5n72.0w - 50mph_(~80.5km/h) - 1003mb - NHC.Adv.#17
2Nov. 12pmGMT - 13.4n72.2w - 45knots.(~83.3km/h) - 1003mb - ATCF
2Nov. 03pmGMT - 13.5n72.6w - 50mph_(~80.5km/h) - 1003mb - NHC.Adv.#18
2Nov. 06pmGMT - 13.4n74.2w - 35knots.(~64.8km/h) - 1006mb - ATCF
2Nov. 09pmGMT - 13.5n74.6w - 40mph_(~64.4km/h) - 1006mb - NHC.Adv.#19
3Nov. 12amGMT - 13.5n75.0w - 40mph_(~64.4km/h) - 1006mb - NHC.Adv.#19A
3Nov. 03amGMT - 13.7n75.1w - 40mph_(~64.4km/h) - 1006mb - NHC.Adv.#20
3Nov. 06amGMT - 13.2n75.2w - 40mph_(~64.4km/h) - 1006mb - NHC.Adv.#20A

Copy&paste 13.6n71.3w, 13.5n72.0w, 13.4n72.2w, 13.5n72.6w, 13.4n74.2w-13.5n74.6w, 13.5n74.6w-13.5n75.0w, 13.5n75.0w-13.7n75.1w, 13.7n75.1w-13.2n75.2w, adz, 18.5n83.3w, pap into the GreatCircleMapper for a look at the headings and the distances traveled over the last 12^hours.
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
Looking at some of these models, I'm a little worried that a few have this thing stalling out in the vicinity of Haiti. For their sake, I hope this is not the case.

Cholera needs marching orders to really get moving, and those orders come from .... water.
Member Since: August 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 525
862. JRRP
Quoting Skyepony:
Looks like they've about Xed that one spot, 2nd time even less pretty & there is another wind shift to the NE of there. A bit a mess overall but rolling away from South America which has been impeding Tomas pretty good. Structure looks improved, convection beginning to rapidly build from just south of center & still hours to D-max.. I'm guessing we might not get a Vortex message from this flight.

JRRP~ HAha..well only cause the NOGAPS has been lost as to where Tomas will go so far..


jejeje
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6209
861. JRRP
Quoting JLPR2:


LOL! Seriously? That's nuts!

yea
Link
see you later
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6209
860. Skyepony (Mod)
hurristat~ Not so likely with this storm.. the vort is tight & not 2 entities close together as we saw with some storms that shed bits earlier this year.

Cause~ click that product info box in the upper right..satellites & computers..

Night ya'll..
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858. Skyepony (Mod)
Looks like they've about Xed that one spot, 2nd time even less pretty & there is another wind shift to the NE of there. A bit a mess overall but rolling away from South America which has been impeding Tomas pretty good. Structure looks improved, convection beginning to rapidly build from just south of center & still hours to D-max.. I'm guessing we might not get a Vortex message from this flight.

JRRP~ HAha..well only cause the NOGAPS has been lost as to where Tomas will go so far..
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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