Tomas gradually strengthening; 14 dead in St. Lucia from the storm

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:58 PM GMT on November 02, 2010

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The islands of St. Lucia, Barbados, and St. Vincent and the Grenadines continue to assess damage and clean up after Hurricane Tomas pounded the Lesser Antilles as a strengthening Category 1 hurricane with 90 - 95 mph winds on Saturday. St. Lucia was hardest hit, with fourteen people dead, many more missing, and damage estimated at $100 million--about 10% of the nation's GDP. Damage on neighboring St. Vincent was estimated at $62 million, which is 4% of that nation's GDP. The storm damaged 1,200 houses, and the northern half of the island, where most of the crops are, was badly hit, with no banana trees left standing and the plantain crop wiped out. Banana production employs 60% of the workforce on St. Vincent, and accounts for more than 50% of their exports. Also hard-hit was Barbados, where damage estimates are at $55 million, 1.5% of the nation's GDP. Tomas may be the most damaging storm to affect the island since Hurricane Janet of 1955. The havoc wreaked by Tomas in the Lesser Antilles makes is likely that the name Tomas will be retired from the list of active hurricane names in the Atlantic.


Figure 1. Torrential rains from Tomas triggered massive flooding on St. Lucia that destroyed several bridges and severely damaged roads. Image credit: St. Lucia Star.

Tomas gradually strengthening
Satellite loops of Tomas show a considerably more organized storm than yesterday, with a modest but increasing amount of heavy thunderstorm activity. However, low-level spiral bands are limited, and upper-level outflow is weak, and Tomas is not in danger of building an eyewall today. Curacao radar shows that the echoes from Tomas are disorganized, with no spiral banding apparent. Wind shear has declined to a moderate 10 -15 knots and the atmosphere in the Caribbean has moistened over the past day, allowing Tomas to re-organize. A hurricane hunter aircraft is on its way to Tomas this morning, and will have a better estimate of the storm's strength by early this afternoon.


Figure 2. Curacao radar at 10:07am EDT on Tuesday, November 2, 2010, showed a large area of rain associated with Tomas over the central Caribbean, but these echoes were poorly organized.

Track forecast for Tomas
The ridge of high pressure pushing Tomas to the west has weakened, allowing Tomas to slow down slightly to a forward speed of 10 mph this morning. This speed will decrease further to 5 mph tonight, as a trough of low pressure approaches the eastern U.S. and breaks down the ridge. By Wednesday, the trough to Tomas' north should be able to pull the storm to the northwest. Tomas' outer spiral bands will bring heavy rains to southwestern Haiti and eastern Jamaica beginning on Thursday night. The computer models have come into better agreement that Tomas will turn more to the north-northeast by Friday, with Haiti or Jamaica the most likely landfall locations. NHC is giving Port-au-Prince, Haiti, a 50% chance of receiving tropical storm force winds, and a 6% chance of hurricane force winds. These odds are 45% and 7%, respectively for Kingston, Jamaica, and 23% and 3% for Santo Domingo in the Dominican Republic.

Tomas may stall
The models are increasingly suggesting the once Tomas begins moving to the north-northeast, the trough pulling the storm that direction will lift out, stranding Tomas in a region of weak steering currents. Tomas may then wander and dump heavy rains for several days, Saturday through Monday. Given recent model trends, I believe this is likely, but the exact location where Tomas might be stranded is uncertain. The NOGAPS model gives a nightmare scenario for Haiti, with Tomas remaining stationary just off the coast from Port-Au-Prince as a hurricane for many days. The UKMET stalls Tomas over the Turk and Caicos Islands, while the GFS, GFDL, and ECMWF models predict Tomas will stall several hundred miles north of Hispaniola and drift eastwards. It's reasonable to go with the model consensus and predict Tomas will pass over western Haiti and stall far enough north of the nation so that heavy rains will not linger over Hispaniola for many days. The uncertainties in the track forecast are greater than usual, though.

Intensity forecast for Tomas
Wind shear as diagnosed by the SHIPS model has dropped to the moderate range, 10 - 15 knots, and is predicted to stay low to moderate, 5 - 15 knots, for the remainder of the week. The relaxation of shear should allow Tomas to continue to re-organize over the next few days. Aiding this process will be an increasingly moist atmosphere. Dry air has decreased significantly over the past 24 hours, as seen on water vapor satellite imagery, and the models predict a very moist atmosphere will surround Tomas for the remainder of the week. With SSTs at a record warm 29.5°C and a very high ocean heat content, there is a substantial danger that Tomas will undergo a period of rapid intensification once it rebuilds its inner core and establishes an eyewall. This is not likely to happen today, but could occur as early as Wednesday night. This may give Tomas sufficient time to intensify into a major hurricane before landfall in Haiti or Jamaica, as predicted by the GFDL model. The most reasonable intensity forecast at this point is to call for a landfall on Friday at Category 2 strength, but Tomas could easily be anywhere from Category 1 to Category 3 hurricane strength on Friday. NHC is giving Tomas a 19% chance of reaching Category 3+ strength; I believe these odds are higher, 40%. With the atmosphere expected to be very moist, it is likely that Tomas will dump very heavy rains of 4 - 8 inches over much of Haiti, even if Tomas strikes as a tropical storm. Rains of this magnitude are capable of causing heavy loss of life due to extreme floods running down Haiti's deforested mountain slopes. Portlight.org is preparing to send their mobile kitchen with enough food to feed 500 people per day, if Tomas continues on its current forecast path.


Figure 3. Plot of all Category 1 and stronger hurricanes to pass within 50 miles of Barbados since reliable record keeping began in 1851. Image credit: NOAA Coastal Services Center.

Barbados hurricane history
Tomas is the strongest hurricane to affect Barbados since Category 3 Hurricane Allen of 1980, which passed just north of the island. Allen did $4 million in damage, compared to Tomas' $55 million. The deadliest hurricane in Barbados history was the Category 5 Great Hurricane of 1780, which killed approximately 4500 people on the island, and leveled every building, including the stone governor's mansion. The Great Hurricane of 1780 was also the Atlantic's deadliest hurricane of all-time, with 22,000 fatalities, mostly in the Lesser Antilles Islands.

Next update
I'll have an update Wednesday morning.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting reedzone:
RECON should find winds of 60+ mph. I believe Tomas will restrengthen into a Hurricane tonight, probably around midnight.
after sunset that process will or should begin convective cycle number 6 as i keep track
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Quoting RitaEvac:
gale force winds will begin once that upper air low gets to gulf, this trough is gonna deepen big time
yeah race se then east to lay off shore in coastal west atlantic all the while tropical energy gets pulled north up and over central carb south central bahamas n ward into a deep cyclone off east coast going north
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56. JRRP
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
and haiti will be no more
Haiti is one of the poorest nations on Earth, and has gone through so many natural disasters. They are a rugged, good hearted nation of people. I hope the storm takes the least dangerous path possible............................................................................................ ........................................................................................In 1925, Haiti was lush, with 60% of its original forest covering the lands and mountainous regions. Since then, the population has cut down an estimated 98% of its original forest cover for use as fuel for cookstoves, and in the process has destroyed fertile farmland soils, contributing to desertification.[66]

In addition to soil erosion, deforestation has caused periodic flooding, as seen on 17 September 2004. Earlier that year in May, floods had killed over 3,000 people on Haiti's southern border with the Dominican Republic.[67]
[edit] Natural disasters
[edit] Hurricanes and tropical storms

In 2004, tropical storm Jeanne skimmed the north coast of Haiti, leaving 3,006 people dead in flooding and mudslides, mostly in the city of Gonaïves.[68]

Haiti was again pummeled by tropical storms in late August and early September 2008. The storms – Tropical Storm Fay, Hurricane Gustav, Hurricane Hanna and Hurricane Ike – all produced heavy winds and rain in Haiti. Due to weak soil conditions throughout Haiti, the country’s mountainous terrain, and the devastating coincidence of four storms within less than four weeks, valley and lowland areas throughout the country experienced massive flooding. Casualties proved difficult to count because the storm diminished human capacity and physical resources for such record keeping. Bodies continued to surface as the flood waters receded. A 10 September 2008 source listed 331 dead and 800,000 in need of humanitarian aid.[69] The grim state of affairs produced by these storms was all the more life threatening due to already high food and fuel prices that had caused a food crisis and political unrest in April 2008.[70]
[edit] 2010 earthquake
Main article: 2010 Haiti earthquake
The National Palace, after the 12 January 2010 earthquake

On January 12, 2010, at 21:53 UTC, (4:53 pm local time) Haiti was struck by a magnitude-7.0 earthquake, the country's most severe earthquake in over 200 years.[71] The epicenter of the quake was just outside the Haitian capital Port-au-Prince.[72] On 10 February the Haitian government gave a confirmed death toll of 230,000.[5] Widespread damage resulted from the quake. The capital city was devastated.

The Presidential Palace was badly damaged, with the second floor entirely collapsing onto the first floor; the Haitan Parliament building, UN mission headquarters and the National Cathedral were also destroyed. International aid flowed in but was hampered by damaged infrastructure: the main port was damaged beyond immediate use, the one local airport was of limited capacity and border crossings with the Dominican Republic were distant and crowded. As many as one million Haitians were left homeless.[73]

Haiti will need to be completely rebuilt from the ground up, according to a journalist, as "[e]ven in good times, Haiti is an economic wreck, balancing precariously on the razor's edge of calamity."[74] Several international appeals were launched within days of the earthquake, including the Disasters Emergency Committee in the United Kingdom, Young Artists for Haiti (Canada) and Hope for Haiti Now: A Global Benefit for Earthquake Relief based in the USA, which was a global effort to raise relief funds by way of a charity telethon held on January 22, 2010. International officials are looking at the short and long term priorities while continuing the daily task of managing the emergency situation.[75] As of September 2010, there were over one million refugees living in tents and the humanitarian situation has been characterized as still being in the emergency phase.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22650
There is another big wave in the central atlantic!
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RECON should find winds of 60+ mph. I believe Tomas will restrengthen into a Hurricane tonight, probably around midnight.
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Quoting stormpetrol:

42. Inactivity, the winds are increasing and they are still far away from the CoC? that's my take


How strong winds are they reporting? and how close to the CoC were they with that Report?
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51. JRRP
Quoting stormpetrol:
I have the coc at 13.2N/73.2W will interesting to see what hhs find.

mmmm could be
Link
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gale force winds will begin once that upper air low gets to gulf, this trough is gonna deepen big time
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Quoting Seastep:
IMO, no need to be fatalistic about Haiti just yet. He very well could pass to the W, which would be better than a direct hit. The further W the better.

Thursday will be the day when it should be pretty much known and there is no immediate danger to anyone until that time.

Hopefully everyone is breathing a sigh of relief that a possible catastrophe was avoided.

I remain optimistic.

Don't know that I'm being fatalistic; realistic seems more like it, given the current forecasts. But realism and optimism aren't mutually incompatible; I--sadly, hesitatingly--accept the former, while stubbornly clinging to the latter.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13802

42. Inactivity, the winds are increasing and they are still far away from the CoC? that's my take
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 8134
Upper air low over Texas is diving south into the Gulf, this trough will be significant and pull Tomas North and NE right into Haiti.

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If Tomas follows the NHC track(let's hope not)......has their ever been a cyclone that hit Haiti from this angle? Especially for Port-au-Prince, this looks nightmarish surge wise, on top of everything else.
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Quoting Inactivity:
Tomas has another 72-90 hours over water, just like I predicted. Wind shear would start to relax on tuesday, along with moist air coming in.This will steadily intensify Tomas for 36 hours until it has an eye of some sort(become a hurricane within 36 hours of this period,more likely 18-24 hours) Then Rapidly intensify into a strong Cat 2 /Weak Cat 3.Then with the last 24 hours over water, slowly intensify into atleast a weak cat 3, if it was a cat 2 earlier, or a strong cat 3 if a weak cat 3 earlier. If the worst case senario pans out( about a 4-5% chance of this happinging, pray to god it dosen't happen) It will stall right next to Haiti as a cat 4!
and haiti will be no more
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IMO, no need to be fatalistic about Haiti just yet. He very well could pass to the W, which would be better than a direct hit. The further W the better.

Thursday will be the day when it should be pretty much known and there is no immediate danger to anyone until that time.

Hopefully everyone is breathing a sigh of relief that a possible catastrophe was avoided.

I remain optimistic.
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Quoting stormpetrol:
Time: 15:28:00Z
Coordinates: 15.4167N 71.0333W
Acft. Static Air Press: 842.9 mb (~ 24.89 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 1,584 meters (~ 5,197 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1012.1 mb (~ 29.89 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 110° at 26 knots (From the ESE at ~ 29.9 mph)
Air Temp: 16.8°C (~ 62.2°F)
Dew Pt: 2.1°C (~ 35.8°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 27 knots (~ 31.0 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 38 knots (~ 43.7 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 1 mm/hr (~ 0.04 in/hr)
(*) Denotes suspect data

strong winds still far from the coc


AS in like the strongest winds are seperated fron the CoC or the winds are increasing and they are still far away from the CoC?
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reason i think gilbert did and most of the others did not is gilbertmust of had a anti cyclone follow it through the caribbean
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here comes the pusher
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I have the coc at 13.2N/73.2W will interesting to see what hhs find.
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 8134
Tomas has another 72-90 hours over water, just like I predicted. Wind shear would start to relax on tuesday, along with moist air coming in.This will steadily intensify Tomas for 36 hours until it has an eye of some sort(become a hurricane within 36 hours of this period,more likely 18-24 hours) Then Rapidly intensify into a strong Cat 2 /Weak Cat 3.Then with the last 24 hours over water, slowly intensify into atleast a weak cat 3, if it was a cat 2 earlier, or a strong cat 3 if a weak cat 3 earlier. If the worst case senario pans out( about a 4-5% chance of this happinging, pray to god it dosen't happen) It will stall right next to Haiti as a cat 4!
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Time: 15:28:00Z
Coordinates: 15.4167N 71.0333W
Acft. Static Air Press: 842.9 mb (~ 24.89 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 1,584 meters (~ 5,197 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1012.1 mb (~ 29.89 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 110° at 26 knots (From the ESE at ~ 29.9 mph)
Air Temp: 16.8°C (~ 62.2°F)
Dew Pt: 2.1°C (~ 35.8°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 27 knots (~ 31.0 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 38 knots (~ 43.7 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 1 mm/hr (~ 0.04 in/hr)
(*) Denotes suspect data

strong winds still far from the coc
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 8134
36. Skyepony (Mod)
Some Tomas model error stats..

Average Position Error (nm) Tomas models
model Error Trend 24hr Error 48hr Error 72hr Error Day 4 Error Day 5 Error
CMC INCREASING 63.5 98.3 124.3 242 304.9
UKMT DECREASING 64.3 95.1 95.3 -1 -1
AEMI INCREASING 65.4 108.6 166.7 -1 -1
GFDL INCREASING 67.7 142.7 143.1 -1 -1
AEMN DECREASING 68.3 109.9 167.4 -1 -1
OFCL INCREASING 71.1 107.9 113.6 155.1 -1
HWRF DECREASING 74.3 155.7 186.5 265.9 400.3
KHRM DECREASING 82.1 246.2 411.4 -1 -1
LBAR INCREASING 102.4 195.2 191.2 297.1 558.8
BAMD INCREASING 110.4 198.6 197.5 152.9 184.8
MM5B INCREASING 173.3 350 170.4 274.3 527.1
MM5E INCREASING 236.5 508.1 472.2 -1 -1
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21L/TS/T/CX
MARK
14.10N/71.73W
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34. JRRP
INTERESTS IN JAMAICA...HAITI...AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF TOMAS. TOMAS COULD POSE A SIGNIFICANT
THREAT TO THESE AREAS LATER IN THE WEEK.
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Quoting jcpoulard:
Very bad news for us here in Haiti !!!
save as many as you can its my only advice with this plan
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:
hey hydrus when yous say further W than what models say would that be over Jamaica or between Cayman and Jamaica
I believe it will be south of the Cayman Islands at some point in time.jmo
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22650
Quoting jasoniscoolman2010xo:
1100 AM EDT TUE NOV 02 2010

...TOMAS CONTINUES WESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
SEA...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.5N 72.6W
ABOUT 355 MI...570 KM S OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
ABOUT 420 MI...675 KM SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


come about 310 degrees nnw lifting up and out
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:
ok so stormpetrol what is your reasoning for this to happen for Tomas to make that right hook between Jamaica and here I am thinking the same but I want to hear your reasoning for this to happen
I think its too far south to feel the full effects of trough, the trough might be strong but could be overestimated, its basically wait and see mode but i think further west before the turn JMO.
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hey hydrus when yous say further W than what models say would that be over Jamaica or between Cayman and Jamaica
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Quoting jcpoulard:
Very bad news for us here in Haiti !!!


No way to candy coat this one. If not the wind, the rain. My prayers to all in it's path.
Member Since: January 30, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3259
Quoting Neapolitan:


As a basis for comparison, the US GDP for 2009 was roughly $14.2 trillion, so a 4% hit such as St. Vincents incurred would be like a $560,000,000,000 ($560 billion) disaster, while a 10% hit would be equivalent to $1,400,000,000,000 ($1.4 trillion), or about 15-16 Katrinas at once.


Would expect the IMF to step in here. Exactly what it is for.
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26. Skyepony (Mod)
This years wave train has wreaked havoc in West Africa..


COTONOU, Benin - The U.N. says flooding in Benin has affected more than half a million people, destroyed more than 300,000 acres of crops and killed 81,000 livestock.

A statement released Monday by the U.N. Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs says flood waters have affected at least 680,000 people in the West African nation. A World Food Program spokesman warned that food has become a critical issue in the region.

Aid workers also fear an outbreak of cholera, a bacterial infection spread through contaminated water.

Flooding began in mid-September when heavy rains caused the Niger River in Benin's north to overflow. Rainfall continues across the country.

Heavy rains and the breakage of a dam in nearby Ghana have displaced more than 700,000 people.
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Quoting Neapolitan:
As of September, there were still 1,000,000+ refugees living in tents, and the recovery operation was still in a crisis phase. IOW: things are a mess.

Link1 - Link 2
Tomas will absorb the energy to its west, making a even larger rain event, Not good news. The MIMIC-TPW shows it is possible that the storm may move a little further to the west then the models are showing..
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Tomas needs to keep his speed at least 8mph to 10mph and going W to WNW for 24 to 36 hours to help Haiti. IMO
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Quoting Neapolitan:
St. Lucia was hardest hit, with fourteen people dead, many more missing, and damage estimated at $100 million--about 10% of the nation's GDP. Damage on neighboring St. Vincent was estimated at $62 million, which is 4% of that nation's GDP


As a basis for comparison, the US GDP for 2009 was roughly $14.2 trillion, so a 4% hit such as St. Vincents incurred would be like a $560,000,000,000 ($560 billion) disaster here in the States, while a 10% hit would be equivalent to $1,400,000,000,000 ($1.4 trillion)--or more than 15 Hurricane Katrina-scale disasters. All at once.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13802
Quoting GOLSUTIGERS:
Have we heard anything about current conditions in Haiti? How soon will conditions deteriorate? My newphew is trying to make it back to base camp in Leogane and we are sitting here nervously waiting to hear from him.


Still a couple of days. Things will be much clearer on Thursday.
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So where's the international help?



AT LEAST 14 people have been killed in St Lucia after tropical storm Tomas struck the Caribbean island triggering deadly landslides.


The exact number of deaths has not been revealed by St Lucia's prime minister Stephenson King, who conducted an aerial survey of Tomas' damage to his country. But he did say that worst-hit town of Soufriere was inaccessible and has declared a state of emergency and appealed for international assistance.


He said: "Everyone is locked in and no one can leave or get in by road or by phone so there are persons who need help but cannot be reached,” he said. “It’s not just a question of clearing these roads because there are sections of the network that have completely disappeared so that we are just going to have to find another way in and out of the town."


Tourism minister Allan Chastanet told local radio that Soufrière had been worst resembled "a war zone".


Bridges were reported to be down, cutting off the capital Castries from the rest of the island.


Widespread damage was also caused on the nearby island of St Vincent.


It is now thought that the storm, which was downgraded from a hurricane, was veering towards Haiti where some 1.3 million people are still living in tents following January's earthquake where 230,000 perished.


Forecasters have warned that Tomas could strengthen again to a hurricane and that parts of Haiti are in its projected path for later in the week.


United Nations humanitarian co-ordinator Nigel Fisher said relief workers in Haiti were trying to gather emergency shelter, water and sanitation supplies.


"We need as much of it as possible in place before Tomas hits," he said.


"Right now they just need to stay tuned - this is the stage to be aware," said John Cangialosi at the US Hurricane Center in Miami.


The damage caused by Tomas is estimated to be more than US$100 million.


So far, the Caribbean Catastrophe Risk Insurance Facility (CCRIF) has indicated that its preliminary calculations indicate that St Lucia will get a payout of about US$3.2 million, St Vincent and the Grenadines US$1.1 million and Barbados – which was the first to feel Tomas – will get US$8.5 million.

Member Since: August 22, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1462
19. Skyepony (Mod)
Thanks for the blog update. The picture up top show volumes. Those look like they were 2 story buildings.

Rain rate for last 12 hrs. The worst of Tomas looks to have produced 7+inches in that time.
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November 2nd, 2010. Castries, Saint Lucia: - Saint Lucia’s National Emergency Management Organisation, NEMO, is reporting a confirmed number of five (5) deaths as a result of the passage of Hurricane Tomas. The confirmed dead are from the Soufriere area located on Saint Lucia’s west coast.

The confirmation was made by the Ministry of Health through Chief Medical Officer, Dr. Merlene Fredericks at around 9:15 pm November 1st, 2010.

The confirmed dead were recovered with assistance from NEMO personnel from land slippage areas in Soufriere.

Member Since: August 22, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1462
ok so stormpetrol what is your reasoning for this to happen for Tomas to make that right hook between Jamaica and here I am thinking the same but I want to hear your reasoning for this to happen
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Think west!
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Time: 15:02:00Z
Coordinates: 16.0667N 69.1167W
Acft. Static Air Press: 392.5 mb (~ 11.59 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 7,741 meters (~ 25,397 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: -
D-value: 423 meters (~ 1,388 feet)
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 338° at 8 knots (From the NNW at ~ 9.2 mph)
Air Temp: -16.0°C (~ 3.2°F)
Dew Pt: -17.4°C (~ 0.7°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 9 knots (~ 10.3 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 37 knots (~ 42.5 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 4 mm/hr (~ 0.16 in/hr)
(*) Denotes suspect data
i think they'll find a 60-70 mph ts
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I think I'm gonna be ill. 14 dead in St. Lucia :(
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If the trough will only tug on it some and drop it over water far enough way from land and kick it back W. This would be a better scenerio. Anybody else have any requests. There Free!
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Have we heard anything about current conditions in Haiti? How soon will conditions deteriorate? My newphew is trying to make it back to base camp in Leogane and we are sitting here nervously waiting to hear from him.
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As of September, there were still 1,000,000+ refugees living in tents, and the recovery operation was still in a crisis phase. IOW: things are a mess.

Link1 - Link 2
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13802
Off to work, will check in again in a couple hours hoping for some track changes.

Complete Update



AOI
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AOI AOI AOI

TSPN BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
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