Tammy, Stan Jr., Stan, and Stan III--and Vince?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 7:55 PM GMT on October 05, 2005

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Tammy
The 5:16 pm EDT Hurricane Hunter mission found winds of 51 knots at flight level, supporting Tammy's maximum winds staying at 50 mph. The pressure fell 1 mb to 1002 mb, so Tammy is not strengthening rapidly, nor is she expected to. Tammy is maintaining her strength in the presence of some unusually high wind shear, about 20 - 25 knots. Tammy is poorly organized, and radar animations out of Jacksonville, Florida, show no sign of an eyewall forming, just a mass of disorganized echoes to the northeast of the center. No ships or buoys have actually measured tropical storm-force sustained winds of 40 mph yet. It is likely that Tammy will move onshore tonight as a weak tropical storm with maximum winds in the 50 - 55 mph range, and a storm surge of 2 - 4 feet.

The primary threat from Tammy will be from her rains. Bands of heavy rain continue to pound the coasts of northern Florida, Georgia, and the Carolinas. Rainfall amounts as of 4 pm EDT have mainly been in the 1 to 3 inch range along the coast in Georgia and along the South Carolina and northern Florida coasts, with lesser amounts further inland. A few isolated areas have received up to five inches--for example, Brunswick Georgia, and just south of Jacksonville, Florida. Storm total rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches are expected with isolated amounts of 8 to 10 inches along and to the north of Tammy's path. Flooding problems will be most serious in coastal Georgia, which received 3 - 5 inches of rain this past week, before Tammy came along.


Figure 2. Estimated rainfall from the Jacksonville radar.

Tammy is being drawn northward by an upper level low over the northern Gulf of Mexico. The counter-clockwise flow of air around this low will pull Tammy northwestward into Georgia, and perhaps even westward towards Alabama by Friday. A cold front is expected to arrive over the East Coast by Friday, and the remains of Tammy are expected to track up the front, drenching the entire East Coast.

Stan Jr.
A large area of thunderstorms broke off from Stan this morning, and emerged into the Yucatan Channel. Satellite imagery shows upper level outflow has developed to the north and east, along with some low-level spiral banding. There is a circulation center near the northeast tip of the Yucatan Peninsula, with a limited amount of deep convection to the northeast and east. Wind shear from westerly upper-level winds are pushing this convection away from the center. Observations from the Cancun radar indicate two major spiral bands have formed, one on the southeast side and one on the north side. The overall impression is of a weak sheared system that is not yet a tropical depression strength. Once the center moves further out into ocean, the system has a better chance for intensification. With wind shear of 10 knots over it, I believe this will be a tropical depression by tomorrow as the system tracks north-northeast towards western Florida. If this system were to be named, it would get the new name Vince, and not Stan, since the primary circulation of that storm pushed into the Pacific Ocean this morning. This assumes that the developing disturbance doesn't become a tropical storm first and steal the name Vince, leaving Stan Jr. stuck with the name Wilma.

Regardless of whether or not this system develops into a tropical storm, southwest Florida can expect tropical storm conditions, with rain amounts of 3 - 5 inches and high winds Thursday and Friday. The system will continue to the northeast and drench the areas already dumped on by Tropical Storm Tammy, and the entire East Coast needs to be concerned about serious flooding problems from this one-two punch.


Figure 1. BAMM model track for Stan Jr.--the tropical disturbance off of the Yucatan.

Stan
The death toll from Hurricane Stan now stands at 103, including 50 deaths in El Salvador, 34 in Guatemala, 11 in Nicaragua and eight in Mexico. The remnant circulation from Stan continues to pull moist tropical air from the Pacific Ocean into the disaster areas, where more flooding rains are expected to make the disaster even worse. Stan, who barely made it to Category 1 strength for a few hours, will likely have his name retired, thanks to this unfolding disaster. This would make the Hurricane Season of 2005 the first season to have five names retired (1955, 1995, and 2004 all had four storm names retired).

Stan III?
The remants of Stan appear likely to spin up into a new tropical cyclone that may threaten Baja California later in the week. If both this system and the Stan Jr. system off of the Yucatan do become tropical storms, this would be the first time a dissipated hurricane spawned two new tropical cyclones, one in the Atlantic and one in the Pacific. How many firsts can this season have??

Vince? Wilma?
A tropical disturbance near 9N 40W, 1500 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands, has developed a low level circulation, impressive deep convection, and the beginnings of an upper-level outflow channel to the north. About 10 knots of shear from strong westerly winds is affecting the disturbance, but models indicate that this shear may decrease over the next day or two. The disturbance is moving west at 15 - 20 mph. The early track forecasts are performing poorly--they have the disturbance moving to the northwest, and it is not doing so. However, a more norhtwestery motion is likely by Saturday, thanks to the steering influence of a large upper-level low pressure system at 25N 60W.

The disturbance is pretty far south for development to occur, but this hurricane season has had little regard for what is usual. Thus, the disturbance may form into a tropical depression on Thursday. Development is more likely Friday or Saturday, when the disturbance will be further from the equator and can take advantage of the Earth's spin to help it develop.


Figure 3. BAMM and GFDL model tracks for the mid-Atlantic disturbance.

Elsewhere in the tropics
Conditions are expected to be unusually conducive for tropical storm formation throughout the Atlantic for the next 10 days, and it is quite likely we'll make it to the end of the alphabet by mid-October. When that happens, we go Greek--Alpha, Beta, and hopefully not much further into the Greek Alphabet! One positive sign today that the Hurricane Season of 2005 will eventually end--a blizzard warning is up for western Montana.

Jeff Masters

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392. vortextrance
6:46 AM GMT on October 06, 2005
3.7 billion is the problem. I wonder who oversees all that money.
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391. leftyy420
6:46 AM GMT on October 06, 2005
vortextrance

no we bult a couple agencies to police the cars and protect us. ntsb, epa, better bussiness burea. thats why a car must have a certain safety requirments and fuel efficency.
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
390. cirrocumulus
6:44 AM GMT on October 06, 2005
Cold front moving into the Texas hill country.
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389. leftyy420
6:42 AM GMT on October 06, 2005
but ur not selling a good. u can not compete with the weather. so 2 companys say it will be sunny tommorow. wheres the competition. now if u want to talk competition u have a 5.0 ghz computer vs a 6.7 ghz. thats competituion. we will never be 100 eprcent correct in weather forcasting. never. we can get close but thats it. no competition there. now if they could control qweather than u would have competition. explain to me where the competition would be or how would u have competition on forcasting the weather. that is the worst statement i have ever heard. weather is not a competition its a best estimate of probable outcomes and based on recorded data and currents. u can;t change that. wow yall really goign off tonight lol
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
388. vortextrance
6:42 AM GMT on October 06, 2005
cars only last 4 or 5 years these days. Actually your right. More people die every year car wrecks than murder, storms, our foreign invaders. So using your logic we should create the National Car Service.Since I am sure the government would make the cars safer, cheaper, and more fuel efficient.
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387. leftyy420
6:39 AM GMT on October 06, 2005
noaa budget is 3.7billion this year lol. tell me what company is going to pay 3.7 billion just to do what noaa does and still spend money to make advancements lol. that says it all right there.
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
386. vortextrance
6:33 AM GMT on October 06, 2005
There is a long way to go. There are so many unknown variables in forecasting. You act like forecasts are always right. And I am not being critical of the National Weather Service. Lefty I do not want to disband the Government. I realize there are essential services they must provide. I was only trying to make the point that competition always leads to improvements.
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385. leftyy420
6:35 AM GMT on October 06, 2005
where do u think doplar radar coame from. college reaserch, private companies will do it as cheapand easy as they can. thats the point. thats why cars only last 4-5 years these days. they make stuff as cheap as possible. we are not buying goods. if it was technology than u would want to push the envelope and spend the money as a private company, but the amount of money it would cost a private company to do anything close to tghe nws or make it better would not be spent why, casue then they would not make a profit. they would be bankrupt.
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
384. leftyy420
6:31 AM GMT on October 06, 2005
and they do get rich predicting the weather. we clal them twc, accuwaether and looks most of us paid wu 5 bucks. think how much money dr.masters has made form this site he helped form. lost of people are getting paid rehashing what the nws says and does. they do all the reaserch they do all the leg work. but than u also need to look at where the advancements come from. not twc and accuweather but from colleges. thats where the reaserch takes place. u guys have a twisted view on how this works. private companies will not spend any more moeny than they have to. its called the bottom line. so schools do the reaserch and help with advancement. thats why we have good data from fsu, university of coloroda, university of wisconsin. private companies would do nothing to help the advancement but spend money on making it look better. thats the point. remebr when seat belts were first put into cars. u had to pay extra if u wanted them. thats private companies lookign at the bottom line.
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
383. vortextrance
6:29 AM GMT on October 06, 2005
Of course the NWS does the best they can do, and I would never get rid of it. And I might be crazy, but its better than ignorant.
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382. leftyy420
6:29 AM GMT on October 06, 2005
advacnement like what? we are on the fore front of our abilities and we are not lagging behind. explain to me what advancement would be made by the private sector that the govt is not doing now. thats like saying if we privitised the military we would have better advancements. come on man
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
381. vortextrance
6:19 AM GMT on October 06, 2005
Lefty, I said I would not get rid of the NWS. I agree it is a mute point because of the money issue. But yes I do believe if you could get rich predicting weather there would be more advancements made.
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380. LakeWorthFinn
6:16 AM GMT on October 06, 2005
FLP thanks for your comment on bringing politics to this site. THIS IS A WEATHER BLOG. I'm a bit concerned with Stan's offspring, I see a LOT of water coming down. I'm not the hardest hit by it in LW as I first thought with Tammy. Any comments on the 'Dragon'-looking 10N 40W circling? It seems to go westward and developing. I bet it'll become Stan real soon.
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379. leftyy420
6:22 AM GMT on October 06, 2005
son of stan is no where near orginised. it probly wont develop till its right near the coast like tammy iof at all. there is no convection over the area of lowest pressure . it lokks quite poor actually
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
378. leftyy420
6:18 AM GMT on October 06, 2005
and where do u guys get thwere would be advancement, like the nws is not trying to forcast as good as possible right now. so if we let accuweather run it we would have a 10 day cone by now. come on man. we aint talking computers we talking weather forcasting. it can only get so good till the private sector improves its equipments and computers. u need to understand that private sectors make the radar, the satelites, the planes, the computers and they are working to improve the tools but the purpose of forcasting weather comes down to the nws and always has and always will. u guys are completely crazy.
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
377. vortextrance
6:15 AM GMT on October 06, 2005
Son of Stan will have name today. It looks like circulation is tighting up. Headed for Miami right now.
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376. leftyy420
6:12 AM GMT on October 06, 2005
vortextrance

its a mute issue. every one depends on the govt to protect you. police, emt, military. so ur saying we should privitise the military to make it better. trust weatheer forcasting is like police and millitary. ur job depends on you being the best u can be to save lives and protect the public. this is a mute issue and will never happen. all the weather stations the nws run do jobs no private company could afford to do for free. they would charge u to find out its raining come on man. think about it for a min and how stupid it sounds. the nws is a top notch agency and does everything at the forefront. private companies can not make predicting any better. u guys are nuts. they are in the same department as the military. would u privitise ur army and have to pay and extra fee to them to protect u from an invading army, or what about the police. charge u 20 bucks to get an intruder. we poay taxes so certain things are taken care of and one is public safety. like it or not its the govt job to protect us and while not perfect privtising it would just cost us more money as companies are out to make money. so u would have to pay more to get a service u get now for pennies from ur income tax. pennies. think about the 5 bucks we pay wu. tahts more than we personally pay the nws for the same data
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
373. vortextrance
6:00 AM GMT on October 06, 2005
While I do not agree with getting rid of the NWS, there would no doubt be significant advancements made if there was competition. And you should never rely on the Government to protect you. To say something works better because the Feds run it is ridiculous. You would be hard pressed to find an efficient Government agency.
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372. leftyy420
6:04 AM GMT on October 06, 2005
st, i get excited over a rain shower lol. i can;t wait to get some rain up here. will arte going to get tons of rain from now thru this weekend
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
371. DocNDswamp
5:49 AM GMT on October 06, 2005
Well I have to say the discussion on who should be given the task of forecasting has been interesting.

And deciding on this issue is certainly easier than one thing....
FORECASTING!!!

Time for this 52 year old codger to snooze out as well. Good nite all...
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370. FLPanhandle
5:49 AM GMT on October 06, 2005
Wannabe,

You must be an agent for one of the parties. You even stated that politics was a major part of your occupation. What benefit will you gain from pushing your party's agenda on a weather blog? Surely you will benefit financially somehow. It appears that you are doing exactly what you despise, gaining financially at the expense of others. Why don't you take your views to a political blog. People want to talk weather here not politics. I believe we need a political button along with the spam and obscene.
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368. leftyy420
6:00 AM GMT on October 06, 2005
st, the site was down but not the weatehr collecting. they collect weather from a vairiety of stations all over the area. trust me no data was lost, u just can;t accessit right now
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
366. leftyy420
5:51 AM GMT on October 06, 2005
it won't happen. all the private companies use the nws thats the point. all data collected all forcasr made are just rehashes of the nws. the nws flies the planes in the stroms, they release the ballons they own the satelites, theres a big missconception on what the nws vs say twc. this debate ismute as what accuweather and twc do is totally different than the nws. the nws is designed to collect data and issue forcasts and warnings for the local govt of each zone. when they issue a tornado warning its a public address. accuweather and twc do not issue advisories for the public. nws falls under the public safety division and nws will always be there. they control alot of the radar and tools all otehr services use. they are the real deal while all the other services are just hollywood versions of what they do. thats why the disscussion is mute. what the nws falls inline with homelandsecurity oif u will. they provide all the leg work and have a budget no private company could afford with out charging us to find out there is a tornado warning. its why we pay taxes. we pay taxes so our govt local, state, federal does a job to protect us. next we will be saying we should have private companies to police our streets as they might do it betetr. but the difference is the police would do all the work and the company get the credit and wqhen u call 911 u ahve to pay a fee. lol come on guys. its a crappy bill that will never get passed, just like the bill to get rid of the penny they try to pass every year. it will never happen so let it go
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
365. weatherwannabe
5:56 AM GMT on October 06, 2005
nite all.
363. weatherwannabe
5:47 AM GMT on October 06, 2005
Sorry Doc - this Admin is just that bad.
362. FLPanhandle
5:29 AM GMT on October 06, 2005
Wannabe,

Both Parties get their bases and a good majority of the public spun up in between 2 year election cycles for issues real or imagined just to get in power. It is disgusting that they keep the public (me included) in a constant state of turmoil for their own purposes. This is normally a nice escape from that turmoil. Please try walking with just one leg for my sake? Thanks.
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361. DocNDswamp
5:31 AM GMT on October 06, 2005
scaldisnoel,
Then again, I wasn't aware that private forecasting firms were being denied profitability by having to compete against the "monopolistic" NWS. They all seem to be making money by offering "enhanced" services. What's the problem?

I'm still awaiting an answer on how much taxpayers are going to save by cutting out only the NWS forecasting. I bet very little since the greater burden lies in collecting the data.

I haven't heard one response from us here that supports the proposal.
Copy all these responses from us and take them to your management. We are all taxpayers here and it's a service we'll gladly continue to support.

And you can go to sleep tonite confident that our politicians will hear from us on the matter. I guess I should thank you for bringing the issue up for those of us who missed it earlier, such as myself.

Just saw your reply to Hawkeyewx...now there's something we agree on!
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360. Hawkeyewx
12:32 AM CDT on October 06, 2005
Tammy went inland several hours ago, but there sure have been some real nasty storms continuing to develop offshore. The coastal areas, especially in Georgia, have received quite a bit of rain so far, but they are lucky they have managed to avoid the offshore stuff. Radar says 15-20 inches of rain has fallen over the water with the training storms.

Ok, I have to wake up early tomorrow so I need to hit the sack. G'nite.
Member Since: July 5, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 1924
359. weatherwannabe
5:29 AM GMT on October 06, 2005
scaldisnoel, goodnight.
358. scaldisnoel
5:26 AM GMT on October 06, 2005
Weatherwannabe,

I'll just agree to disagree and call it a night. I'm way past bedtime. Must get up for work in 3 1/2 hours.
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357. weatherwannabe
5:26 AM GMT on October 06, 2005
FLPanhandle I can't do that - politics are a major part of my occupation and life. I can't remove it from my expression of opinions anymore than I can walk without a leg.
356. FLPanhandle
5:25 AM GMT on October 06, 2005
Sounds good Scaldi. We are definitely in different corners on this one.
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355. weatherwannabe
5:21 AM GMT on October 06, 2005
scaldisnoel, to be honest with you, without some sweeping changes to tort law I can't see how a private company could survive mkaing weather forecasts. I would guess that private forecast liability is limited becuase the NWS is considered THE forecast and all private information is merely supplemental. If the private sector took over all forecasting everyone from private pilote to shipping woold rely on those forecasts alone and liability should be unlimited for neligence. Just the volume of lawsuits alone could put the industry into bankruptcy. And if they want immunity from liability I don't just say 'no' but 'hell no'. Just go back a few years to to the Savings and Loan privitation to see the disasters that mixing profit with public interests cause - thank goodness those jerks could be held responsible.
354. FLPanhandle
5:13 AM GMT on October 06, 2005
Wannabe,

There have always been political times. It is not new to this era. You have a tendency to throw your political jabs in for whatever cause in on your mind at that time. I try not to give mine and I prefer not to hear others unless I ask them for it. I enjoy your inputs but without the politics. I could share mine with you but I don't think you would prefer to hear mine either. I hope you don't take this as an insult because I am trying to explain in a way that won't offend you. Thanks.
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353. scaldisnoel
5:21 AM GMT on October 06, 2005
Hawkeye,

The format I suggested in some posts a few days ago is as follows:

Use the pressure as the baseline for the Category. If there is substantial evidence to the contrary (recon wind data, radar estimates, storm surge, etc.) make adjustments to the Category. Obviously, the more variables you include, the less consistent and objective it becomes. It seems however, from what I've noticed, that the pressure is a more accurate predictor of storm damage than measured sustained winds.
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352. Hawkeyewx
12:17 AM CDT on October 06, 2005
The hurricane experts... National Hurricane Center, etc., I'm sure could devise a new rating system if they wanted to. I have not heard of any plan to do such a thing.
Member Since: July 5, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 1924
351. scaldisnoel
5:13 AM GMT on October 06, 2005
FLP,

I think we'll just have to agree to disagree on this one. I think that there IS direct feedback. Every time we choose to listen to a forecast on a specific radio station, or go to a specific website, we are choosing the one that we view as the most accurate information provided in the most useful format. That drives the ratings, and the advertizing dollars. Those forecasters that provide the best product in the best format will win out and those that don't will change or disappear.
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350. weatherwannabe
5:16 AM GMT on October 06, 2005
cTampa - LOL
349. cTampa
5:14 AM GMT on October 06, 2005
You could probably do it with a disclaimer...lol Do not rely on this as an accurate statement.
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348. FLPanhandle
5:06 AM GMT on October 06, 2005
Scaldi,

It is not the same. There is not a direct feedback as to the worth of the service or goods. I may have bought the product for the good music the media outlet provides not the forecast. If Dell builds a much faster computer with excellent software that anyone can use then sells will skyrocket and that success will drive the quality of other manufacturers products if they are to be successful. Maybe I am missing it but I just don't see it with forecasting.
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347. weatherwannabe
5:10 AM GMT on October 06, 2005
scaldisnoel, provate cos are sued everyday for negligence. Slip and fall on Main Street and try to sue teh city (you'll lose) - slip and fall in Wal MArt and you might win.
346. cTampa
5:10 AM GMT on October 06, 2005
scald...no offense. But it is the USA. You can sue for spilling hot coffee on yourself.
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345. weatherwannabe
5:08 AM GMT on October 06, 2005
However, if I fail to clear MY driveway of ice and you slip and fall you can sue ME as a private citizen. That's just the way good old tort law works. Which again begs the question, would accuweather be liable for faulty forecasts? More speficially, would Accuweather find itself definding itself against negligence lawsuits for incorrect forecasts?
344. scaldisnoel
5:08 AM GMT on October 06, 2005
Weatherwannabe,

That is exactly my point. If the government can't be sued for a bad forecast, why should it be any different for the private sector?
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343. weatherwannabe
5:07 AM GMT on October 06, 2005
scaldisnoel, you can't sue the govt for taht anymor than you can sue for a flat tire caused by a pot hole in a city street.
342. cTampa
5:05 AM GMT on October 06, 2005
hawk- Is there a way to change the scale to include these changes?
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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