Tammy, Stan Jr., Stan, and Stan III--and Vince?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 7:55 PM GMT on October 05, 2005

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The 5:16 pm EDT Hurricane Hunter mission found winds of 51 knots at flight level, supporting Tammy's maximum winds staying at 50 mph. The pressure fell 1 mb to 1002 mb, so Tammy is not strengthening rapidly, nor is she expected to. Tammy is maintaining her strength in the presence of some unusually high wind shear, about 20 - 25 knots. Tammy is poorly organized, and radar animations out of Jacksonville, Florida, show no sign of an eyewall forming, just a mass of disorganized echoes to the northeast of the center. No ships or buoys have actually measured tropical storm-force sustained winds of 40 mph yet. It is likely that Tammy will move onshore tonight as a weak tropical storm with maximum winds in the 50 - 55 mph range, and a storm surge of 2 - 4 feet.

The primary threat from Tammy will be from her rains. Bands of heavy rain continue to pound the coasts of northern Florida, Georgia, and the Carolinas. Rainfall amounts as of 4 pm EDT have mainly been in the 1 to 3 inch range along the coast in Georgia and along the South Carolina and northern Florida coasts, with lesser amounts further inland. A few isolated areas have received up to five inches--for example, Brunswick Georgia, and just south of Jacksonville, Florida. Storm total rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches are expected with isolated amounts of 8 to 10 inches along and to the north of Tammy's path. Flooding problems will be most serious in coastal Georgia, which received 3 - 5 inches of rain this past week, before Tammy came along.

Figure 2. Estimated rainfall from the Jacksonville radar.

Tammy is being drawn northward by an upper level low over the northern Gulf of Mexico. The counter-clockwise flow of air around this low will pull Tammy northwestward into Georgia, and perhaps even westward towards Alabama by Friday. A cold front is expected to arrive over the East Coast by Friday, and the remains of Tammy are expected to track up the front, drenching the entire East Coast.

Stan Jr.
A large area of thunderstorms broke off from Stan this morning, and emerged into the Yucatan Channel. Satellite imagery shows upper level outflow has developed to the north and east, along with some low-level spiral banding. There is a circulation center near the northeast tip of the Yucatan Peninsula, with a limited amount of deep convection to the northeast and east. Wind shear from westerly upper-level winds are pushing this convection away from the center. Observations from the Cancun radar indicate two major spiral bands have formed, one on the southeast side and one on the north side. The overall impression is of a weak sheared system that is not yet a tropical depression strength. Once the center moves further out into ocean, the system has a better chance for intensification. With wind shear of 10 knots over it, I believe this will be a tropical depression by tomorrow as the system tracks north-northeast towards western Florida. If this system were to be named, it would get the new name Vince, and not Stan, since the primary circulation of that storm pushed into the Pacific Ocean this morning. This assumes that the developing disturbance doesn't become a tropical storm first and steal the name Vince, leaving Stan Jr. stuck with the name Wilma.

Regardless of whether or not this system develops into a tropical storm, southwest Florida can expect tropical storm conditions, with rain amounts of 3 - 5 inches and high winds Thursday and Friday. The system will continue to the northeast and drench the areas already dumped on by Tropical Storm Tammy, and the entire East Coast needs to be concerned about serious flooding problems from this one-two punch.

Figure 1. BAMM model track for Stan Jr.--the tropical disturbance off of the Yucatan.

The death toll from Hurricane Stan now stands at 103, including 50 deaths in El Salvador, 34 in Guatemala, 11 in Nicaragua and eight in Mexico. The remnant circulation from Stan continues to pull moist tropical air from the Pacific Ocean into the disaster areas, where more flooding rains are expected to make the disaster even worse. Stan, who barely made it to Category 1 strength for a few hours, will likely have his name retired, thanks to this unfolding disaster. This would make the Hurricane Season of 2005 the first season to have five names retired (1955, 1995, and 2004 all had four storm names retired).

Stan III?
The remants of Stan appear likely to spin up into a new tropical cyclone that may threaten Baja California later in the week. If both this system and the Stan Jr. system off of the Yucatan do become tropical storms, this would be the first time a dissipated hurricane spawned two new tropical cyclones, one in the Atlantic and one in the Pacific. How many firsts can this season have??

Vince? Wilma?
A tropical disturbance near 9N 40W, 1500 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands, has developed a low level circulation, impressive deep convection, and the beginnings of an upper-level outflow channel to the north. About 10 knots of shear from strong westerly winds is affecting the disturbance, but models indicate that this shear may decrease over the next day or two. The disturbance is moving west at 15 - 20 mph. The early track forecasts are performing poorly--they have the disturbance moving to the northwest, and it is not doing so. However, a more norhtwestery motion is likely by Saturday, thanks to the steering influence of a large upper-level low pressure system at 25N 60W.

The disturbance is pretty far south for development to occur, but this hurricane season has had little regard for what is usual. Thus, the disturbance may form into a tropical depression on Thursday. Development is more likely Friday or Saturday, when the disturbance will be further from the equator and can take advantage of the Earth's spin to help it develop.

Figure 3. BAMM and GFDL model tracks for the mid-Atlantic disturbance.

Elsewhere in the tropics
Conditions are expected to be unusually conducive for tropical storm formation throughout the Atlantic for the next 10 days, and it is quite likely we'll make it to the end of the alphabet by mid-October. When that happens, we go Greek--Alpha, Beta, and hopefully not much further into the Greek Alphabet! One positive sign today that the Hurricane Season of 2005 will eventually end--a blizzard warning is up for western Montana.

Jeff Masters

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492. seflagamma
9:38 AM EST on October 06, 2005
Did anyone ever find out what that swirl out east of Bahamas in the Atlantic is all about. At 23 N 53W???
Its been swirling out there several days. Any ideas?
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491. seflagamma
9:29 AM EST on October 06, 2005
That snake that ate the gator and exploded was all over the papers and news down here in SF. They even had pics of other times when the two are fighting each other in the water....I am an outdoors person and also find that stuff frightening but fasinating.

Where is the center of the "son of stan" storm? to the west or south of SF? Hard to tell from the sat I'm looking at.
In Weston it is alot like palmbeacher says. Showers & Sun on and off, hot and humit.
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490. MandyFSU
2:15 PM GMT on October 06, 2005
I'm not gonna lie. I wouldn't mind a breezy rainy day. I really wouldn't.
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489. CoconutCreekFLA
10:02 AM EDT on October 06, 2005
Morning all!

Slightly overcast here and an occasional sprinkle but nothing significant.

Observed At: Pompano Beach, Florida
Elevation: 16 ft / 5 m
84 F / 29 C
Mostly Cloudy
Heat Index: 93 F / 34 C
Humidity: 76%
Dew Point: 76 F / 24 C
Wind: 12 mph / 18 km/h from the SSE
Pressure: 29.78 in / 1008 hPa
Visibility: 10.0 miles / 16.1 kilometers
UV: 2 out of 16
Clouds: Scattered Clouds 1800 ft / 548 m
Mostly Cloudy 3500 ft / 1066 m

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488. vortextrance
1:50 PM GMT on October 06, 2005
Son of Stan is still a threat. I expect it will be a depression later today.As far as the panhandle goes, nobody could say with any amount of authority how this will develop and exactly where it will go. Its all a big guess now.
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487. palmbeacher
1:50 PM GMT on October 06, 2005
*those, thoses. you know what I mean. Case of Rectal Glaucoma.
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486. palmbeacher
1:48 PM GMT on October 06, 2005
I saw it on the news last night. I think it was one of thoses snakes that people get as pets and then turn loose when they get to big. However they said the Glades was full of them. Scary!
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485. MandyFSU
1:46 PM GMT on October 06, 2005
oh my heavens no. Wow. Glad I'm in North Florida.
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484. palmbeacher
1:43 PM GMT on October 06, 2005
Coastie, yes I did. What freaked me out more was what happend in the Glades. With the Snake that ate a 6 foot alligator! They both ended up dead. Anyone else see that?
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483. rxse7en
1:40 PM GMT on October 06, 2005
"Hope this weather blows the "Red Tide" out for the weekend and does not bring in the biting flies!"

Really makes me wonder why we live in Florida...hoping a tropical storm blows away the red tide and biting bugs! :D

Building a house in the snow belt of the Catskill mountains is looking better and better! Though I really can't complain as Jax "seems" invulnerable.

Member Since: August 21, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 530
482. coastie24
1:41 PM GMT on October 06, 2005
Palmbeacher, Did you see the story about the Nile Lizzards in South Florida? That could get very scary for owners of small dogs and cats.
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481. palmbeacher
1:40 PM GMT on October 06, 2005
We are still in a Flood watch until Saturday. YUCK
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480. MandyFSU
1:39 PM GMT on October 06, 2005
They're predicting rain in Tally tomorrow, but sunshine for the weekend.
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479. coastie24
1:39 PM GMT on October 06, 2005
The yellow flies are the nastiest. Anyway, it looks to be a good weekend here in the Panhandle with temps in the low 80s.
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478. palmbeacher
1:38 PM GMT on October 06, 2005
Rain then some sun, Rain then some sun. Seems to be the forecast for the day here.
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477. gbreezegirl
1:38 PM GMT on October 06, 2005
Hope this weather blows the "Red Tide" out for the weekend and does not bring in the biting flies!
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476. coastie24
1:37 PM GMT on October 06, 2005
gbreezegirl, you should get some soon as it is heading your way.
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475. gbreezegirl
1:36 PM GMT on October 06, 2005
Anyone think the yucatan blob is any threat to the panhandle? Accuweather said it would move into Florida late Thursday? Does not seem so on radar to me. Have company coming this weekend from Louisianna.
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474. MandyFSU
1:33 PM GMT on October 06, 2005
GLOOMY, palmbeacher. Ugh. Raining in your area?
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473. coastie24
1:36 PM GMT on October 06, 2005
The weather channel this morning didn't even have "Son of Stan" developing into a TD.
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472. gbreezegirl
1:35 PM GMT on October 06, 2005
Hi Coastie! Not raining yet in Gulf Breeze. Just cloudy and windy.
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471. oriondarkwood
9:33 AM EDT on October 06, 2005
Weather from my hood

UV Index: 1 Low
Wind: From South at 7mph
Humidity: 74%
Pressure: 29.68 in.
Dew Point: 61F
Temp: 70F
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470. coastie24
1:34 PM GMT on October 06, 2005
Good morning everyone. Raining here in Pensacola. My yard tells me we needed it.
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469. gbreezegirl
1:30 PM GMT on October 06, 2005
Morning everyone!
UV Index: 0 Low
Wind: From NNW at 14 mph
Humidity: 84%
Pressure: 29.79 in.
Dew Point: 68F
Visibility: 7.0 miles

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468. vortextrance
1:25 PM GMT on October 06, 2005
Good morning everyone. There is a lot going on this morning. To me the Son of Stan is better organized this morning. It looks like a lot of the strong convection to the east is much closer to the main circulation. You can really pick up the circulation center on cuban radar. I still think this will develope.

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467. palmbeacher
1:31 PM GMT on October 06, 2005
Morning Mandy! How is your weather?
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466. palmbeacher
1:30 PM GMT on October 06, 2005
Zap, I have no idea. All I can tell you is it is raining here! Lefty will be on in a little while I assume, and he should have a lot to say, and can answer your question.
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465. MandyFSU
1:29 PM GMT on October 06, 2005
Morning all? What's the morning report?
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464. Zaphod
1:20 PM GMT on October 06, 2005
To my unpracticed eye, the model that curved Tammy into the gulf can't be right, as the NHC update seems to point it far further NW.

Any thoughts on the chance of the next TD forming SE or E of the Bahamas? It looks like Yucatan Stan is blowing out into FL, and is failing to develop meaningfully. Isn't there room for another storm a little further East before the 10N system moves up?
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463. palmbeacher
1:26 PM GMT on October 06, 2005
Savannah, Hope you got your boots on! Looks like it will keep raining for awhile.
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462. oriondarkwood
9:21 AM EDT on October 06, 2005

Welcome to the bloggerhood, and work is about the only time I get to be on.

And to shoot stats back at you 33, MWM grew up in NC but not living in the great frozen north of upstate NY.

Also according to some Master of Random Off Topic Crazy Questions.
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461. SavannahStorm
1:12 PM GMT on October 06, 2005
Yikes! 8.20 inches in the rain gauge this morning! Luckily no flooding near my house. However, my wife and I rode around a bit last night around 11 PM during the most powerful squall of the storm and there was an area of about 3 square blocks about a mile from my house under 2-3 feet of water. It rained for several more hours, so I'm not sure how high that water got. There was also a very large power outage- at least 3 square miles of no power at all. None of the local news outlets have reported any numbers on it yet, though.
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460. palmbeacher
1:19 PM GMT on October 06, 2005
morning Gamma, the only time I am on is at work!
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459. seflagamma
8:11 AM EST on October 06, 2005
Good morning, This is a first, logging on at work.
Just caught up on everything that was said during the night. Please, keep politics off of this blog, it is for weather information. For those of you wanting ages, I am 52, I have seen this age repeted by several of you; glad this blog welcomes us AARP members!
What is going on at W52 N23 is that still an upper level low spinning out there?
What happened to the developement of "son of Stan"?????
Just a rain blob now it appears.

I work in Weston and we have had several showers this morning but nothing strong.
Thanks to all for the info.
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458. oriondarkwood
8:21 AM EDT on October 06, 2005

Its dry up here and one more day of unseasonable weather (ie its 80 degrees up here in OCT, its not unheard of but its been 80 degress EVERY day of Oct so far). Luckily tommorrow it will cool down and Sat suppose be more like Oct, cold, wet, and cloudy.
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457. thelmores
12:22 PM GMT on October 06, 2005
morning everybody! :)

conditions in myrtle beach this morning?
temp 74f
winds sustained from East@23mph
we did have a 50mph gust this morning!
rainfall storm total.... about 2inches
looks like we may double the two inches today......

hey.... what happened to wunderground yesterday? sight went down after i clicked post comment! LOL
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456. oriondarkwood
8:18 AM EDT on October 06, 2005

Well anywhere people can make a buck.. And the goverment in order to say money for other pork projects say Iraq their probably going to start doing like more fat cat corps and outsourcing to the company that can do it the cheapest.

Really say but I won't jump my soap box on fat cat corps and the money they use to lead congress around by the nose. I have a blog for that (LOL)

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455. rxse7en
12:14 PM GMT on October 06, 2005
Morning all!

Models have Tammy recurving back into the Gulf and coming right back at Jacksonville. Lots of stuff to check out this morning. And what's that model that's over the Bahamas next to Florida?!

Member Since: August 21, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 530
454. Whataviewfromhere
11:56 AM GMT on October 06, 2005
I really don't mean to cause the whole "privatization of weather inf" discussion to flare up again - but thought some of you may be interested in this . . . Recreation boating and aviation interests are adamantly opposed to Senator Santorum's bill. BoatUS, the largest recreational boater's organization in the US recently did a piece on it in their memeber magazines.

For boaters and pilots it's primarily a safety issue. It's standard practice for a small craft, prior to leaving, to listen to the NWS marine weather forecast. The bill would prohibit the NWS from providing this. Boaters would have to pay for a subscription service, such as to Accuweather. The concern is that most small boaters wouldn't. We're not talking about rich yacht owners here - they'd pay for the service. These are the small boats that should not be out in conditions that, as you all know, can change rapidly out on the water.

According to BoatUS, Accuweather is headquartered in Pennsylvania, the home state of the Senator who introduced this bill. The Commercial Weather Services Association is lobbying heavily for it's passage. BoatUS and Aircraft Owners and Pilots Association is lobbying heavily against it.

Interesting times.

Disclosure: I'm a small time boater and member of BoatUS.
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453. CoconutCreekFLA
8:13 AM EDT on October 06, 2005
Hey Orion!

Good morning. Just popped in but have to run and take my daughter to school. Be back later.

Stay dry!!
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452. oriondarkwood
8:03 AM EDT on October 06, 2005
Ding Dong the Tammy witch is dead (well as far as a tropical storm), but she soaked the area pretty good. Got a friend down in Brunswick, GA said he had almost 11 inches in the rain gauge and that was around 2ish last night...

Come on daytime crowd grab a coffee and filter in (pun intended)
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451. SRQgal
5:24 AM EDT on October 06, 2005
Kansas.. about eight hours; its 500+ miles. I was concerned that Son of Stan wanted to go along for the ride.... now it looks as if the kid needs to stay behind and be in day care. Fine by me! LOL.
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450. KansasSoldier
9:22 AM GMT on October 06, 2005
I plan to be doing this until they won't let me do it anymore, but my current contract is up in 2011.
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449. SRQgal
5:22 AM EDT on October 06, 2005
Kansas: Stay safe, and thanks for all you're doing to keep us safe.
Must run; lots to do for the trip!
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448. KansasSoldier
9:19 AM GMT on October 06, 2005
I hear Pensacola is nice this time of year. How far of a drive is that?
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447. SRQgal
5:18 AM EDT on October 06, 2005
Kansas.. How much time fo you have left in the service?
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446. SRQgal
5:15 AM EDT on October 06, 2005
Driving to Pensacola from Sarasota tomorrow -- looks as if all will be OK.
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445. KansasSoldier
9:15 AM GMT on October 06, 2005
Life is good here, its a warm day, but they all are. Will be nice when it finally starts snowing here, and even better when it starts melting, because then it will be time to make like a leaf and get the heck out of here.
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444. SRQgal
5:02 AM EDT on October 06, 2005
Mornin Kansas...

Just got up to check out things,,, we may be the only ones here...

How are YOU?
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443. aquak9
5:10 AM EDT on October 06, 2005
Ah, well, off to work for me. Have a great day, everyone!
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 182 Comments: 26842
442. aquak9
5:07 AM EDT on October 06, 2005
Hi kansas! I posted on your blog
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 182 Comments: 26842

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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