Unprecedented Hurricane Tomas pounding the Lesser Antilles

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:38 PM GMT on October 30, 2010

Share this Blog
7
+

Hurricane Tomas, an unprecedented Lesser Antilles hurricane for so late in the season, is bearing down on the islands of St. Lucia and St. Vincent with Category 1 winds of 75 mph. Recent radar imagery from the Martinique radar shows that Tomas is still in the organizing stage, with an eyewall that just closed off, and a weak area of echoes on the south side, due to modest wind shear of 10 knots caused by southerly upper-level winds. The Hurricane Hunters reported top surface winds in the northern eyewall near 75 mph. St.Lucia figures to get the worst blow from Tomas, as this island will experience the strong right-front quadrant of the storm--the north eyewall. Winds on the island were sustained at 46 mph, gusting to 67 mph, at 11am EDT. Winds at Barbados peaked at 37 mph, gusting to 56 mph, early this morning, and the pressure bottomed out at 994 mb. Satellite loops of Tomas show a large and well-organized Cape Verdes-type hurricane, with good upper level outflow on all sides except the south, and an impressive amount of heavy thunderstorm activity. This is a very dangerous hurricane that is just beginning to get going. You can follow the progress of Tomas through the islands today with our wundermap zoomed in on St. Lucia.


Figure 1. Morning radar image from the Martinique radar shows the eye of Tomas moving between the islands of St, Lucia to the north and St. Vincent and the Grenadines to the south. The southern portion of the eyewall had just closed off with this image. Image credit: Meteo France.

Intensity forecast for Tomas
Now that the eyewall of Tomas has completely closed off, a period of steady and possibly rapid intensification lasting until Sunday afternoon is likely. The intensification rate may then be slowed by an increasing flow of southwesterly upper-level winds, which are expected to bring dry air and a moderate 15 - 20 knots of wind shear to Tomas Sunday through Tuesday, according to the latest SHIPS model forecast. Shear is then expected to relent, allowing more intensification on Wednesday. Water temperatures are a record warm 29.5°C and the Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential--a measure of the total heat content of the ocean--is a very high 100 kJ/cm^2, which is very favorable for rapid intensification. I expect the Tomas will strengthen to a Category 3 or 4 hurricane by Wednesday.


Figure 2. Hurricane specialists Robbie Berg (background) and Dan Brown (foreground) discuss the latest data on Tomas last night at the National Hurricane Center.

Track forecast for Tomas
The computer models have come into better agreement this morning that after Tomas reaches the central Caribbean 4 - 5 days from now, a turn to the north or northeast is likely, in response to a strong trough of low pressure expected to develop over the Eastern U.S. The exact timing of this turn to the north or northeast is difficult to predict at this time, as steering currents will be weak in the Caribbean after Tomas passes through the Lesser Antilles today and Sunday. At this time, is appears that the Dominican Republic and Haiti are most at risk from a strike by Tomas, though the storm could move as far west as Jamaica, or as far east as the northern Lesser Antilles Islands.


Figure 3. Hurricane specialist Dan Brown computes Tomas' radius of tropical storm force winds using the old-fashioned paper track plot and dividers technique. Hurricane specialists at NHC commonly use a paper track plot to mark all storm center fixes and compute the current motion of the storm. A storm's current heading and speed in NHC advisories is usually a 12-hour average of the motion up until the final fix position.

Tomas, Shary, and the 2010 hurricane season in perspective
Tomas' formation ties 2010 with 1995 and 1887 for 3rd place for most number of named storms in an Atlantic hurricane season. Only 2005 (28 named storms) and 1933 (21 named storms) were busier. Atlantic hurricane records go back to 1851, though there were likely many missed named storms prior to the beginning of satellite coverage in the mid-1960s. The intensification of Shary and Tomas into hurricanes today brings the total number of hurricanes this season to twelve, tying 2010 with 1969 and 1887 for second place for most hurricanes in a season. The record is held by 2005 with fifteen hurricanes, and I don't think we'll beat that record this year!

The formation of Tomas so far south and east this late in the season is unprecedented in the historical record; no named storm has ever been present east of the Lesser Antilles (61.5°W) and south of 12°N latitude so late in the year. Hurricane Six of 1896 came close--it was also a tropical storm south of 12°N and east of 61.5°W on October 29, but nine hours earlier in the day. That storm recurved to the north and missed the Lesser Antilles. Tomas' track through the southern Lesser Antilles so late in the year is unprecedented. There have been only two other tropical storms that formed after October 15 south of 12°N and east of 61.5°W: Hurricane Jose, which was a tropical storm in that region on October 18, 1999, and Tropical Storm Nicolas, on October 16, 2003. Tomas most reminds me of a storm I flew into with the Hurricane Hunters--Hurricane Joan of 1988, which was a tropical storm on October 14 near Tomas' current location, and later strengthened into a Category 4 hurricane that hit Nicaragua. According to Chenoweth (2008), Tomas is the first tropical storm to cross through the Lesser Antilles Islands south of 16°N this late in the year since 1724. In that year, a tropical storm on 12 November crossed the islands at 13.7°N 61.5°W, and later became a hurricane that affected Jamaica. There was also a hurricane on 30 October 1671 that crossed 61.5°W at 13.3°N, and did damage on Barbados.

Another unusual aspect of Tomas' formation is that we now have two simultaneous hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean on October 30. There has been only one hurricane season since 1851 that had had two simultaneous hurricanes later in the year--1932, when Hurricane Ten and Hurricane Eleven both existed November 7 - 10. Today is also the 5th latest date in the season that there have been two simultaneous named storms in the Atlantic. The record was set way back in 1887, when Hurricane Eighteen and Tropical Storm Nineteen were both active on December 8. There were three years that had simultaneous November named storms: 1932, 1961, and 2001.

References
Chenoweth, M. and D. Divine (2008), "A document-based 318-year record of tropical cyclones in the Lesser Antilles, 1690-2007", Geochemistry, Geophysics, Geosystems, 9, doi:10.1029/2008GC002066.

Next update
I'll have more on Sunday by 3pm EDT. I'm headed home to Michigan today, after a very valuable week here at the National Hurricane Center. The experience gave me a new appreciatation for just how good the forecasters are at what they do. NHC's hurricane experts are truly world-class, and we are very fortunate to have such a talented group of hard-working forecasters keeping us informed on the dangers we face from Atlantic hurricanes.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 1393 - 1343

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35Blog Index

Quoting Grenada:



Probably trying to keep it on!
Better to lose a roof than a life... sure hope this turns out to be an "exaggerated" report...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Grenada:



Probably trying to keep it on!
thats the only thing i can think of in a cat. 1. storm surge definitely not the cause.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting scott39:
South westerly shear will not allow Tomas to strengthen thru Wednesday and may even weaken him some. after Wednesday conditions will become favorable again. So says Crown Weather.


True. But I believe that it won't weaken in the Caribbean.Remember the 2010 factor? LOL just kidding.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1390. scott39
Southwesterly shear is good news for the short term. Expect Tomas to weaken a little over the next 72 hours.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1389. Mixie
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
That was the newest post I saw. I pray that although damages may be severe that there is no loss of life. Buildings and bridges can be replaced but not lives.


exactly - I'm so grateful for internet technology that people can find weather blogs and sites like this; its still amazing that with all the tech, there's still little news coming out as yet - thought the twitter people would be far more active - on Dominica, they certainly weren't so for all the islands its still a guessing game how many people may have lost their lives. The official news reports coming out now is the same as late last night.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
looklike tomas is tired of his tail.
Yeah, looks like he is leaving it behind.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:



Most recent...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1386. Grenada
Quoting BahaHurican:
The St Vincent report is mentioning 3 possible deaths, including those of 2 men who were on a roof???? What r u doing on a roof in the middle of a TC??????

Still waiting to hear more from SLU....



Probably trying to keep it on!
Member Since: August 21, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 96
The St Vincent report is mentioning 3 possible deaths, including those of 2 men who were on a roof???? What r u doing on a roof in the middle of a TC??????

Still waiting to hear more from SLU....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting BahaHurican:
It's been a major at the end of the forecast period for almost 24 hrs now... NHC has been forecasting the cat 3 rampup pretty much since it became a hurricane, IIRC....


I wonder why?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1383. scott39
South westerly shear will not allow Tomas to strengthen thru Wednesday and may even weaken him some. after Wednesday conditions will become favorable again. So says Crown Weather.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting blsealevel:
Here is a bit of info i read this morning
sounds reasonable as current modeling seems to be another timing issue as to how far west this storm gets into the Carib.


As it stands, based on all the current forecast tools, Jamaica and Hispaniola may be at the highest risk from Tomas. I will continue to monitor Tomas, and forecast steering, as we know steering has been known to change quite quickly. This risk is not set in stone, as there is some uncertainty, as this system could stall briefly as the troff approaches due to weakening steering. I should have a clearer picture, once the storm is south of Puerto Rico.

The current wave watch modeling indicates seas may run 9-12 feet near the southern coast of Puerto Rico in about 36 hours. With the threat of rainfall from this system. There could be coastal flooding given the height of these seas. Though Tomas should remain south of Puerto Rico, I recommend that folks monitor their local NWS closely for any statements regarding Tomas. For the remainder of the Caribbean, this system has the potential to become a dangerous hurricane within the next 72-96 hours.


Why don't you say where this quote came from?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting stormwatcherCI:


Looks like you have some very heavy rain headed your way shortly.
looklike tomas is tired of his tail.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Nothing on StormCarib from St.Vincent since last night. And what was posted before the storm hit 90mph(~145km/h) shortly before its closest approach sounded pretty bad.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting pottery:

OK.
I am near Freeport in Central.
1/2" of rain last night with occasional thunder.
Looks like the sky may 'open' anytime now down here......


Looks like you have some very heavy rain headed your way shortly.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting roleli:


I hope you are wrong but it appears, Jamaicans are taking it seriously, at least the media, Jamaica Gleaner -Eye on Thomas


Yes, we are praying that it goes in a path that does not cause damamge to any country but we are taking it seriously as usual. I think the shops and supermarkets here will be buzzing with activity as of tomorrow.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1377. Grenada
Saw a Cruise Ship arriving here this morning, wondered where it had been, surely it didn't pass through Tomas, it came on the Caribbean side.
Member Since: August 21, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 96
Quoting Inactivity:
Whenever Tomas strengthens faster than the nhc thinks it will, they find a way to make it become a major at the end of the forecast period...
It's been a major at the end of the forecast period for almost 24 hrs now... NHC has been forecasting the cat 3 rampup pretty much since it became a hurricane, IIRC....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Mixie:


Thanks a mil SWCI! *grateful*
That was the newest post I saw. I pray that although damages may be severe that there is no loss of life. Buildings and bridges can be replaced but not lives.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1374. Mixie
Quoting pottery:

OK.
I am near Freeport in Central.
1/2" of rain last night with occasional thunder.
Looks like the sky may 'open' anytime now down here......


NICE to meet you here! Yes, I agree, looks like its more or less over - I don't think the rest of TT should have suffered any significant flooding (hopes so) and the rains I was expecting to see from the warnings coming from Sans Souci seem to have died a natural death before they even properly began in the West here. Nice for all of us!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1373. pottery
Back in a while......
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1372. scott39
Goodmorning, Tomas has waned in convection quite a bit this morning.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1371. Mixie
Quoting barbamz:
Good morning from sunny Germany.
Some first damage report from the islands caused by Tomas:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/10/31/AR2010103100867.html


I guess the cruise ship was fine there in Dominica? How do those kinds of winds affect them?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1370. pottery
Quoting Mixie:


No, a friend is there and he's been posting over Facebook during the night but hasn't responded to any of our questions this morning - he's surely getting some much needed sleep. I'm in POS.

OK.
I am near Freeport in Central.
1/2" of rain last night with occasional thunder.
Looks like the sky may 'open' anytime now down here......
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Whenever Tomas strengthens faster than the nhc thinks it will, they find a way to make it become a major at the end of the forecast period...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1368. Mixie
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Toxic Tomas...

* By Conan Shillingford
* Date: Sun, 31 Oct 2010 11:45:57 +0000

Good morning all,



So far Unfortunately, the effects of Hurricane Tomas appear to be nothing short of Horrendous...from St. Vincent in the South to as far north as Guadeloupe the impact has been moderate to severe depending on where one is posting from…

Here in the Nature Isle, Dominica we have not been left unscathed -thus far the winds have been gusting to about 25-35 Knots -sometimes as high as 40 knots or greater on the North East coast accompanied by driving rains. ...


Thanks a mil SWCI! *grateful*
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1367. roleli
Quoting kmanhurricaneman:
unfortunately i do believe jamaica is gonna get hit. i hope i am wrong this season has been strange though wierd tracks wierd formation areas mmmmmm...... things to come i guess


I hope you are wrong but it appears, Jamaicans are taking it seriously, at least the media, Jamaica Gleaner -Eye on Thomas
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting reedzone:
The trend on the forecast models for Category 2 Hurricane Tomas is quite disturbing for the USA, who said Tomas can't make it here?


Maybe not Florida, but there's a slim chance that the BAMS is showing Tomas emerging with a nor'easter = BAD STUFF! Hopefully this scenario does not happen.



Set up for another "perfect storm"? I hope not.
Reed, your opinions and "predictions" have been very good this season. Question...IF Tomas gets bigger (radius) and stronger, does affect the pull of the emerging trough? Will it be easier for the trough to pull a large storm northward or pull a smaller storm? And, IF it gets larger and stronger and IF the trough does not dig down as far south as expected and/or is not as strong as expected, do you think Tomas will continue on the WNW track maybe to Central America or gradually turn northward later than expected? Just some concern for my little neck of the woods in FL.
Thanks. And my prayers for all of those in the path of this storm right now.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1365. barbamz
Good morning from sunny Germany.
Some first damage report from the islands caused by Tomas:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/10/31/AR2010103100867.html
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1364. SLU
Quoting Saltydogbwi1:


Dont know if you have tried this or if it has been mentioned but here in cayman after Ivan the phone system was damaged and overloaded with calls barely any cell phone calls would go through but Text messages were working fine. Just a thought :-)


Good idea. I was able to receive a call though. The weather has "improved" so far this morning. Still light rains but the winds have dropped below tropical storm force.

No visible damage around my home, apart from a few fallen trees, but most other parts of the island have been totally devastated. Including the possible washing away of probably the two most important bridges on the island's main road network. One at Choc and the other at Sans Soucis (unconfirmed). Both of which are on the critical Castries/Gros Islet highway.
Member Since: July 13, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 5267
1363. Mixie
Quoting pottery:

Are you in Sans Souci?


No, a friend is there and he's been posting over Facebook during the night but hasn't responded to any of our questions this morning - he's surely getting some much needed sleep. I'm in POS.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Saltydogbwi1:


True digicell also brought in temporary cell towers very quickly if I remember correctly
Also were a huge help afterwards donating $250,000 of building materials and supplies.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Mixie:


Thanks pottery! Have been keeping tabs most of the night as my mother is in Dominica and only now reading some snippets of news from there. Your link should be useful.
Toxic Tomas...

* By Conan Shillingford
* Date: Sun, 31 Oct 2010 11:45:57 +0000

Good morning all,



So far Unfortunately, the effects of Hurricane Tomas appear to be nothing short of Horrendous...from St. Vincent in the South to as far north as Guadeloupe the impact has been moderate to severe depending on where one is posting from…

Here in the Nature Isle, Dominica we have not been left unscathed -thus far the winds have been gusting to about 25-35 Knots -sometimes as high as 40 knots or greater on the North East coast accompanied by driving rains. So far no thunder has been heard at all. The occasional higher gusts often create a howling sound- which only makes me even more apprehensive to think of what terrible Tomas has done to the islands of St. Lucia and St. Vincent in addition to what Barbados has already experienced. Major lessons ought to be learnt from the ‘surprise’ nature of this system’s development and the resultant deficiency in forecasting and warning by regional authorities et al.



Amazingly it is said that the Creole Festival went off last night...Incredible but that there were reports of some structural damage around town -though apparently minimal. Here the vegetation has taken most of the beating with leaves, branched and twigs down etc. Some banana plants have also taken a good lashing from Tomas.



For most of yesterday and this morning there have been some brief but moderate squall lines coming through. The Atlantic has been churning madly and I’m pretty sure the storm swells/ surges have reached the Caribbean Sea- western facing side of the island by now. I do hope that Yesterday's inclemency from early in the morning which continues into this morning gave most people enough time to be ready for what we had to endure overnight-early this morning. It appears from the satellite that as the system moves to the wnw now at an even slower pace that we will have to deal with a few more heavy squall lines into the next day. I do pray that everyone will remain safe throughout the day especially those who may still be out in this weather at the various Creole/ Independence events.

Major tropical systems are never a pleasant experience! God’s Blessings to all.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Sad to say also that although Lime is way bigger than Digicel, Digicel had much better service after Ivan. Also AT&T.


True digicell also brought in temporary cell towers very quickly if I remember correctly
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
A little more visibility on Tomas now...

img src=
http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/GOES11312010304B9fCmf.jpg>



This last one is from about an hour ago.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Saltydogbwi1:


Dont know if you have tried this or if it has been mentioned but here in cayman after Ivan the phone system was damaged and overloaded with calls barely any cell phone calls would go through but Text messages were working fine. Just a thought :-)
Sad to say also that although Lime is way bigger than Digicel, Digicel had much better service after Ivan. Also AT&T.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Looks like a cold front coming through my area (West Palm Beach) next weekend. Saturday highs in the 70's, Lows in the low 60's...Maybe a few upper 50's. Finally!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting kmanhurricaneman:
unfortunately i do believe jamaica is gonna get hit. i hope i am wrong this season has been strange though wierd tracks wierd formation areas mmmmmm...... things to come i guess
Nothing would surprise me at this point. If the NHC track bears out, Eastern JA will likely get some impacts; however, I don't think Haiti is out of the woods at all. In fact, I think PR is the only "big island" that is unlikely to experience some impacts from Tomas. I think the forecast idea of it passing between JA and Haiti rather than south of JA is going to pan out.... after that it's anybody's guess how it tracks. Depending on speed / amplification of the trough that Ike mentioned earlier, Tomas could make a Nrn turn anywhere from DR to Havana, IMO. I also don't see how The Bahamas will miss being impacted in some way by this system, though to what extent is also anybody's guess right now.

Quoting kmanhurricaneman:
strange no eye and a cat 2 ???? whats up with that?
The eye's there - it's been visible on MeteoFrance radar imagery all night. It's just obscured by clouds.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1354. pottery
Quoting Mixie:


Thanks pottery! Have been keeping tabs most of the night as my mother is in Dominica and only now reading some snippets of news from there. Your link should be useful.

Are you in Sans Souci?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
HurricaneTomas's heading turned westward to dueWest
from its previous heading of (0.2degrees west of) WestNorthWest
H.Tomas's average speed moving between its last 2 reported positions decreased to ~9mph(~14.5km/h) from its previous travel speed of ~12mph(~19.3km/h)
TS.Tomas
30Oct 12pmGMT - 13.1n60.1w - - 70mph(~112.7km/h) - 993mb - NHC.Adv.#4A
H.Tomas
30Oct 03pmGMT - 13.3n60.7w - - 75mph(~120.7km/h) - 993mb - NHC.Adv.#5
30Oct 06pmGMT - 13.4n61.0w - - 75mph(~120.7km/h) - 992mb - NHC.Adv.#5A
30Oct 09pmGMT - 13.5n61.4w - - 75mph(~120.7km/h) - 992mb - NHC.Adv.#6
31Oct 12amGMT - 13.5n61.7w - - 90mph(~144.9km/h) - 982mb - NHC.Adv.#7A
31Oct 03amGMT - 13.6n62.1w - - 90mph(~144.9km/h) - 982mb - NHC.Adv.#8
31Oct 06amGMT - 13.8n62.4w - 100mph(~160.9km/h) - 982mb - NHC.Adv.#8A
31Oct 09amGMT - 14.0n62.9w - 100mph(~160.9km/h) - 983mb - NHC.Adv.#9
31Oct 12pmGMT - 14.0n63.3w - 100mph(~160.9km/h) - 983mb - NHC.Adv.#9A

Copy&paste 13.1n60.1w, 13.3n60.7w, 13.4n61.0w, 13.5n61.4w, 13.5n61.7w-13.6n62.1w, 13.6n62.1w-13.8n62.4w, 13.8n62.4w-14.0n62.9w, 14.0n62.9w-14.0n63.3w, sjm into the GreatCircleMapper for a look at the headings and the distances traveled over the last 12^hours.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Here is a bit of info i read this morning
sounds reasonable as current modeling seems to be another timing issue as to how far west this storm gets into the Carib.


As it stands, based on all the current forecast tools, Jamaica and Hispaniola may be at the highest risk from Tomas. I will continue to monitor Tomas, and forecast steering, as we know steering has been known to change quite quickly. This risk is not set in stone, as there is some uncertainty, as this system could stall briefly as the troff approaches due to weakening steering. I should have a clearer picture, once the storm is south of Puerto Rico.

The current wave watch modeling indicates seas may run 9-12 feet near the southern coast of Puerto Rico in about 36 hours. With the threat of rainfall from this system. There could be coastal flooding given the height of these seas. Though Tomas should remain south of Puerto Rico, I recommend that folks monitor their local NWS closely for any statements regarding Tomas. For the remainder of the Caribbean, this system has the potential to become a dangerous hurricane within the next 72-96 hours.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1351. pottery
Posts on StormCarib site are saying that damage is pretty serious across Barbados, St Vincent, St Lucia.
They are all still experiencing Bad weather
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1350. Mixie
Quoting pottery:
Good Morning all.
Trinidad weather is-
Heavy cloud cover
Rain last night 1/2"
Thunder and rains to my east right now.

A very good site for Caribbean reports-
www.stormcarib.com
with comments from posters all through the Islands.


Thanks pottery! Have been keeping tabs most of the night as my mother is in Dominica and only now reading some snippets of news from there. Your link should be useful.

Just checked out the site pottery and there's been one most recent update; judging from the info I got during the night (TG for Stormpulse.com and this site's maps), other scanty posts I saw on Twitter, Dominica took a nice battering last night with up to 65mph winds on the NW side and 45mph winds on the NE. I expected everything to be over for them by about 3:00AM this morning but Tomas' slight track a little bit North again made it sure they had to endure a few extra hours.

My mother, who I ensured was holed up nicely (she told me they took electricity since the MORNING so she had NO guiding news) and in time for a 5:00PM ride must surely be asking herself if Tomas has taken a far more northerly track. I reckon within the next hour or so she'll be out and about as the latest cloud winds indicate that Tomas will be gone by then. I can't reach her by phone yet but that's most likely because she's saving her cell charge until its over and she can make calls.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Thinking if Tomas turns a little left in next 12-24 hours it could slow to a crawl and while staying around 980 to 985 mb in strength through 48 hours, it could go through RI and maybe get to 925 mb around 72-96 hours out.. while still south to south east of Jamaica... as bad as it could be for Haiti, the move west could be worse for central america if it does not turn north. Reminds me a little of Mitch from 1998 except bigger and more ominous at this time.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting SLU:
I tried to make contact with St. Lucia early this morning through calling cell phone and land line numbers but to no avail.

Last spoke to my brother about 2:30am with no difficulty but the torrential rains which started about 5pm had not stopped at that point in time. TS force winds were still being experienced too.

However, I cannot get connected with anyone this morning ...


Dont know if you have tried this or if it has been mentioned but here in cayman after Ivan the phone system was damaged and overloaded with calls barely any cell phone calls would go through but Text messages were working fine. Just a thought :-)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1347. Mixie
Quoting DDR:

Hi there
You correct,it was close indeed.
You how trinis are...
have you seen the radar? we're not complete out of it yet!


SANS SOUCI, near TOCO NE coast took some really heavy rainfall early this morning from Tomas' last tail winds (when I checked, I couldn't believe that the tail winds were over us) since before 2:30AM and since around 4:00AM, news from there warned of the West needing to brace for some 'big' rain coming our way. So far, only one heavy shower, lasted for 3/4 hour, has stopped now and the birds are singing though the sky is completely overcast. But I think its over for the time being here since Tomas will be further west in about an hour.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1346. pottery
Good Morning all.
Trinidad weather is-
Heavy cloud cover
Rain last night 1/2"
Thunder and rains to my east right now.

A very good site for Caribbean reports-
www.stormcarib.com
with comments from posters all through the Islands.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting IKE:
SYNOPSIS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
430 AM CDT SUN OCT 31 2010

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST TUE
AND EXTEND FROM CENTRAL LOUISIANA COAST TO TAMPICO MEXICO LATE
TUE AND FROM SE LOUISIANA TO E BAY OF CAMPECHE WED AND FROM
FLORIDA BIG BEND TO 19N91W THU. STRONG TO NEAR GALE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED W OF THE FRONT.
Hmmm.... this is interesting... Looks like N vs W for Tomas will depend a lot on how far north it gets in the next 36 or so hrs...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1344. IKE
5:00 AM AST Sun Oct 31
Location: 14.0°N 62.9°W
Max sustained: 100 mph
Moving: WNW at 8 mph
Min pressure: 983 mb

...........................................

...TOMAS SLOWLY MOVING AWAY FROM THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...HEAVY RAINS LINGER OVER MUCH OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...
8:00 AM AST Sun Oct 31
Location: 14.0°N 63.3°W
Max sustained: 100 mph
Moving: WNW at 8 mph
Min pressure: 983 mb
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1343. SLU
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Pray everyone is ok. Most likely due to downed lines or cell phone towers.


Yes that seems to be the case.
Member Since: July 13, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 5267

Viewing: 1393 - 1343

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.