Unprecedented Hurricane Tomas pounding the Lesser Antilles

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:38 PM GMT on October 30, 2010

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Hurricane Tomas, an unprecedented Lesser Antilles hurricane for so late in the season, is bearing down on the islands of St. Lucia and St. Vincent with Category 1 winds of 75 mph. Recent radar imagery from the Martinique radar shows that Tomas is still in the organizing stage, with an eyewall that just closed off, and a weak area of echoes on the south side, due to modest wind shear of 10 knots caused by southerly upper-level winds. The Hurricane Hunters reported top surface winds in the northern eyewall near 75 mph. St.Lucia figures to get the worst blow from Tomas, as this island will experience the strong right-front quadrant of the storm--the north eyewall. Winds on the island were sustained at 46 mph, gusting to 67 mph, at 11am EDT. Winds at Barbados peaked at 37 mph, gusting to 56 mph, early this morning, and the pressure bottomed out at 994 mb. Satellite loops of Tomas show a large and well-organized Cape Verdes-type hurricane, with good upper level outflow on all sides except the south, and an impressive amount of heavy thunderstorm activity. This is a very dangerous hurricane that is just beginning to get going. You can follow the progress of Tomas through the islands today with our wundermap zoomed in on St. Lucia.


Figure 1. Morning radar image from the Martinique radar shows the eye of Tomas moving between the islands of St, Lucia to the north and St. Vincent and the Grenadines to the south. The southern portion of the eyewall had just closed off with this image. Image credit: Meteo France.

Intensity forecast for Tomas
Now that the eyewall of Tomas has completely closed off, a period of steady and possibly rapid intensification lasting until Sunday afternoon is likely. The intensification rate may then be slowed by an increasing flow of southwesterly upper-level winds, which are expected to bring dry air and a moderate 15 - 20 knots of wind shear to Tomas Sunday through Tuesday, according to the latest SHIPS model forecast. Shear is then expected to relent, allowing more intensification on Wednesday. Water temperatures are a record warm 29.5°C and the Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential--a measure of the total heat content of the ocean--is a very high 100 kJ/cm^2, which is very favorable for rapid intensification. I expect the Tomas will strengthen to a Category 3 or 4 hurricane by Wednesday.


Figure 2. Hurricane specialists Robbie Berg (background) and Dan Brown (foreground) discuss the latest data on Tomas last night at the National Hurricane Center.

Track forecast for Tomas
The computer models have come into better agreement this morning that after Tomas reaches the central Caribbean 4 - 5 days from now, a turn to the north or northeast is likely, in response to a strong trough of low pressure expected to develop over the Eastern U.S. The exact timing of this turn to the north or northeast is difficult to predict at this time, as steering currents will be weak in the Caribbean after Tomas passes through the Lesser Antilles today and Sunday. At this time, is appears that the Dominican Republic and Haiti are most at risk from a strike by Tomas, though the storm could move as far west as Jamaica, or as far east as the northern Lesser Antilles Islands.


Figure 3. Hurricane specialist Dan Brown computes Tomas' radius of tropical storm force winds using the old-fashioned paper track plot and dividers technique. Hurricane specialists at NHC commonly use a paper track plot to mark all storm center fixes and compute the current motion of the storm. A storm's current heading and speed in NHC advisories is usually a 12-hour average of the motion up until the final fix position.

Tomas, Shary, and the 2010 hurricane season in perspective
Tomas' formation ties 2010 with 1995 and 1887 for 3rd place for most number of named storms in an Atlantic hurricane season. Only 2005 (28 named storms) and 1933 (21 named storms) were busier. Atlantic hurricane records go back to 1851, though there were likely many missed named storms prior to the beginning of satellite coverage in the mid-1960s. The intensification of Shary and Tomas into hurricanes today brings the total number of hurricanes this season to twelve, tying 2010 with 1969 and 1887 for second place for most hurricanes in a season. The record is held by 2005 with fifteen hurricanes, and I don't think we'll beat that record this year!

The formation of Tomas so far south and east this late in the season is unprecedented in the historical record; no named storm has ever been present east of the Lesser Antilles (61.5°W) and south of 12°N latitude so late in the year. Hurricane Six of 1896 came close--it was also a tropical storm south of 12°N and east of 61.5°W on October 29, but nine hours earlier in the day. That storm recurved to the north and missed the Lesser Antilles. Tomas' track through the southern Lesser Antilles so late in the year is unprecedented. There have been only two other tropical storms that formed after October 15 south of 12°N and east of 61.5°W: Hurricane Jose, which was a tropical storm in that region on October 18, 1999, and Tropical Storm Nicolas, on October 16, 2003. Tomas most reminds me of a storm I flew into with the Hurricane Hunters--Hurricane Joan of 1988, which was a tropical storm on October 14 near Tomas' current location, and later strengthened into a Category 4 hurricane that hit Nicaragua. According to Chenoweth (2008), Tomas is the first tropical storm to cross through the Lesser Antilles Islands south of 16°N this late in the year since 1724. In that year, a tropical storm on 12 November crossed the islands at 13.7°N 61.5°W, and later became a hurricane that affected Jamaica. There was also a hurricane on 30 October 1671 that crossed 61.5°W at 13.3°N, and did damage on Barbados.

Another unusual aspect of Tomas' formation is that we now have two simultaneous hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean on October 30. There has been only one hurricane season since 1851 that had had two simultaneous hurricanes later in the year--1932, when Hurricane Ten and Hurricane Eleven both existed November 7 - 10. Today is also the 5th latest date in the season that there have been two simultaneous named storms in the Atlantic. The record was set way back in 1887, when Hurricane Eighteen and Tropical Storm Nineteen were both active on December 8. There were three years that had simultaneous November named storms: 1932, 1961, and 2001.

References
Chenoweth, M. and D. Divine (2008), "A document-based 318-year record of tropical cyclones in the Lesser Antilles, 1690-2007", Geochemistry, Geophysics, Geosystems, 9, doi:10.1029/2008GC002066.

Next update
I'll have more on Sunday by 3pm EDT. I'm headed home to Michigan today, after a very valuable week here at the National Hurricane Center. The experience gave me a new appreciatation for just how good the forecasters are at what they do. NHC's hurricane experts are truly world-class, and we are very fortunate to have such a talented group of hard-working forecasters keeping us informed on the dangers we face from Atlantic hurricanes.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting afj3:

I realize that many are not professional meteorologists but they do know their weather. Some have shared their knowledge and were friendly with me and other people while others boast about how brilliant they are and how tech-savvy they are but won't a): share the hypotheses and work behind their conclusions and b): where they get access to models and other technology and c): patronize others for not being up to speed as they are. I would love to be able to forecast as an armchair-amateur--I just need some help....


If you want to learn the basics, and later in his lessons the more complicated parts.. go to this Blog.

quasigeostropic's WunderBlog

Its very easy to understand and follow.
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Quoting SouthDadeFish:
Judging by recent satellite trends, Tomas is clearly weakening. Satellite estimates have now dropped to T4.0, and hopefully he continues to weaken.

Actually it's T4.0/4.5.
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Judging by recent satellite trends, Tomas is clearly weakening. Satellite estimates have now dropped to T4.0, and hopefully he continues to weaken.
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Tropical Update Oct. 31st. 2010
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Quoting P451:


Tough to wish a storm on one person than another.

Sometimes I muse if an area just got hit wouldn't it be best for them to also get the second hit?

I go back to thinking Katrina ruined NOLA. Wouldn't it be best for Rita to follow rather than for Rita to go destroy another area?

Moral dilemmas....are probably best kept within one's own mind.

I'm not wishing Tomas to leave Haiti alone only to go wipe out Jamaica or the DR.

Just can't do that. He's going to go where he wants to go anyways. I just am no good at the "OMG it hit Haiti that's terrible." versus "Oh thank god it went and killed people in Jamaica and not Haiti! Haiti didn't need more destruction!"


Just...can't do that sort of thing. Doesn't feel right.
I think the angst about Haiti this year is less what u are talking about i.e. the multiple hit scenario and more the sense that Haiti is even less defenseless against TCs than usual. For a lot of us it's less "Wishing it on other pple" than it is a sense that just about any other area in the Caribbean basin right now is in better shape infrastructurally to deal with a TC than is Haiti. I'm not saying you don't have a valid point [particularly thinking about instances like Frances-Jeanne in FL]. I just think a strike over SW Haiti would result in another catastrophic loss of life, whereas one over JA, Cuba, CI, Bahamas, even DR would mean relatively fewer or even no lives lost. People in these other areas can do some things to protect their lives and property. In Haiti, this option doesn't exist for hundreds of thousands of earthquake survivors.

But you are right; there is no "right" solution. I believe we have been fortunate all season to have been spared this dilemma with majors due to the prevailing tracks. Unfortunately a storm in the Caribbean has to get out SOMEhow. I just hope it doesn't get out over Haiti this time...
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1488. wxhatt
The ACE index has been on the high side this year (151.4 thus far). Thankfully impacts on the US mainland have been minimal. Let's hope that it remains that way as we wind down the season.

As I had said early on, this years analog package looked to resemble the 1995 hurricane season in regard to storm tracks.

2010


1995
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1487. afj3
Quoting afj3:

One's chain can only be yanked if the chainholder allows his or her chain to be yanked....

And I am not trying to yank chains. Just wanted data and woke up on the wrong side of bed this morning. My apologies to all I have irked today. I am out!!!
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Quoting afj3:

I realize that many are not professional meteorologists but they do know their weather. Some have shared their knowledge and were friendly with me and other people while others boast about how brilliant they are and how tech-savvy they are but won't a): share the hypotheses and work behind their conclusions and b): where they get access to models and other technology and c): patronize others for not being up to speed as they are. I would love to be able to forecast as an armchair-amateur--I just need some help....


Believe me, you're more knowledgeable than 90% of the bloggers here. That's meant as a compliment.
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1485. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting StormSurgeon:


"Experts"?.......here?
i know nothing iam an expert at nothing
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1484. afj3
Quoting BahaHurican:
Sure u are... lol.... just remember u're not the only 1 who can yank a chain... lol

One's chain can only be yanked if the chainholder allows his or her chain to be yanked....
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Quoting Sfloridacat5:
For Florida to be considered a player, Tomas would need to move a lot further to the west and do it quickly. The strong front moving down late next week will completely shut the door on the Hurricane season for the S.E. U.S.



I wouldn't necessarily say for the rest of the season, but at least for a week or two. GFS is predicting shear values over Florida in excess of 80 knots. Not very favorable for intensification.
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Looks like the Choc bridge did indeed fail last night.
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Quoting P451:


Weaker is less likely to be picked up as it's shallower.

I believe that's the general rule of thumb.

However a strong trough is going to destroy a weaker system no matter how shallow it is. And a lot of the time a strong trough will pick up any storm.

The model to follow on that one is your BAM model.

BAMD - deep system
BAMM - medium system
BAMS - shallow system

While the model plots aren't trustworthy to pinpoint an actual storm path - what they do is show you what a storm will do given it's vertical size. You'll see the "D" picked up and deflected, you'll see the "S" go further west before being picked up, and the "M" somewhere inbetween.

When the three members are tightly clustered then you know you're dealing with a trough that is going to pick up a storm regardless of intensity.


...yet with Tomas what we've seen with the models is more of a system that is poised to STALL, sit around, and then take a brand new course. These are the WORST to try and predict.


We know ONE thing - it's in a basin where it has no where to go but over land. Someone's getting Tomas. Questions are when and how strong. Can't answer that at all.




Right now I'm guessing it's medium and here's the BAMM.
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1480. afj3
Quoting StormSurgeon:


"Experts"?.......here?

I realize that many are not professional meteorologists but they do know their weather. Some have shared their knowledge and were friendly with me and other people while others boast about how brilliant they are and how tech-savvy they are but won't a): share the hypotheses and work behind their conclusions and b): where they get access to models and other technology and c): patronize others for not being up to speed as they are. I would love to be able to forecast as an armchair-amateur--I just need some help....
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1479. scott39
Quoting P451:


Weaker is less likely to be picked up as it's shallower.

I believe that's the general rule of thumb.

However a strong trough is going to destroy a weaker system no matter how shallow it is. And a lot of the time a strong trough will pick up any storm.

The model to follow on that one is your BAM model.

BAMD - deep system
BAMM - medium system
BAMS - shallow system

While the model plots aren't trustworthy to pinpoint an actual storm path - what they do is show you what a storm will do given it's vertical size. You'll see the "D" picked up and deflected, you'll see the "S" go further west before being picked up, and the "M" somewhere inbetween.

When the three members are tightly clustered then you know you're dealing with a trough that is going to pick up a storm regardless of intensity.


...yet with Tomas what we've seen with the models is more of a system that is poised to STALL, sit around, and then take a brand new course. These are the WORST to try and predict.


We know ONE thing - it's in a basin where it has no where to go but over land. Someone's getting Tomas. Questions are when and how strong. Can't answer that at all.



Good explanation. Thanks
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"Authorities in St. Vincent said they had unconfirmed reports that three people died during the storm Saturday, including two men who might have been blown off a roof."
- Quoted from the Washington post http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/10/31/AR2010103100867.html
. . . . .One of my all-time favorite things to do - be on a roof during a hurricane -
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Is it me or is the trough still moving east?
Link
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1476. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
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1475. scott39
Quoting P451:


Tough to wish a storm on one person than another.

Sometimes I muse if an area just got hit wouldn't it be best for them to also get the second hit?

I go back to thinking Katrina ruined NOLA. Wouldn't it be best for Rita to follow rather than for Rita to go destroy another area?

Moral dilemmas....are probably best kept within one's own mind.

I'm not wishing Tomas to leave Haiti alone only to go wipe out Jamaica or the DR.

Just can't do that. He's going to go where he wants to go anyways. I just am no good at the "OMG it hit Haiti that's terrible." versus "Oh thank god it went and killed people in Jamaica and not Haiti! Haiti didn't need more destruction!"


Just...can't do that sort of thing. Doesn't feel right.
You make a good point. This Hurricane will not be good for anybody. Lets hope,wish, pray--- that wind shear destroys it!
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000
WTCA82 TJSJ 311335
HLSSJU

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
HURRICANE TOMAS LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
935 AM AST SUN OCT 31 2010

...OUTER RAIN BANDS OF HURRICANE TOMAS EXPECTED TO BRING TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS TO THE OFFSHORE CARIBBEAN WATERS AND PASSAGES...

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT OFFERS GUIDANCE AND RECOMMENDATIONS FOR
MARINERS...AS WELL AS OTHER MARINE INTERESTS...ALONG ALL COASTAL
WATER LEGS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS COASTAL
WATERS.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
FOR MARINE INTERESTS...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING CONTINUES FOR
PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS COASTAL
WATERS.

PLEASE CHECK THE LATEST PUBLIC AND MARINE FORECASTS FOR DETAILED
INFORMATION ABOUT ADDITIONAL HAZARDS.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 8 AM AST...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE TOMAS WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 14.0N...LONGITUDE 63.3W. THIS WAS ABOUT 300 NAUTICAL MILES
SOUTHEAST OF PONCE PR...OR ABOUT 235 NAUTICAL MILES SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF SAINT CROIX VI. TOMAS WAS MOVING TO THE WEST
NORTHWEST AROUND 7 KNOTS AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE NEAR 85
KNOTS.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
HURRICANE TOMAS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE WEST NORTHWEST
THROUGH TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE WEST MONDAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...TOMAS WILL BRING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO THE
CARIBBEAN SEA AND PASSAGES BEYOND 10 NAUTICAL MILES FROM THE COAST
TO 17 DEGREES NORTH. IN ADDITION...ISOLATED WATERSPOUTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITHIN RAIN BANDS.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT AND WELL SECURED. CLOSELY
MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER LOCAL NEWS OUTLETS FOR
OFFICIAL STORM INFORMATION. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST.


&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN SAN JUAN AROUND 1230 PM AST...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS
WARRANT.

AMZ722-732-741-311945-
/O.CON.TJSJ.TR.W.0002.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
ANEGADA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N-
CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO 17N-
MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N-
935 AM AST SUN OCT 31 2010

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...NEW INFORMATION...
STORM INFORMATION SECTION WAS UPDATED.

...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS...
THE CHANCE FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS UP TO 66
PERCENT.


...WINDS AND SEAS...
THE LATEST AREA FORECAST IS FOR SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 TO 35 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS TO 50 KNOTS. MAXIMUM SEAS OF 14 TO 18 FEET ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THESE MARINE ZONES.


$$
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1472. SLU
Quoting Dakster:
Good Morning...

SLU Glad your family is ok! I bet the bridges are high priority to get fixed and I am sure it will happen fairly fast once the weather clears.

I see the models still think Tomas is going hit the Mona passage. Still waiting to see if the NHC buys that scenario or not. The circle of possibilities is still rather large...


Thank you. I'm still hearing more reports of major bridges having been washed away too.
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Quoting afj3:

Thank you! That's exactly what I want to hear. How do I get the information? How do I ask--what's in store for (for me) Florida, South Carolina and Jamaica? When I do ask like that, I often get ignored and I suspect this site is for experts to compare their data interpretations and forecasts. If one is looking for just a more detailed forecast than he or she would get from local TV, sometimes I feel this blog is not the place save Dr. Masters's postings....


"Experts"?.......here?
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For Florida to be considered a player, Tomas would need to move a lot further to the west and do it quickly. The strong front moving down late next week will completely shut the door on the Hurricane season for the S.E. U.S.

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Quoting afj3:

I'm not being melodramatic. I am being the opposite....
Sure u are... lol.... just remember u're not the only 1 who can yank a chain... lol
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Quoting weatherwatcher12:

I was just in the plaza and it's like a ghost town and I hear nobody talking about it, however the news papers and met service are being responsible and informing. I should get my preps going, better safe than sorry.
I agree. Makes no sense to leave it until it is possibly too late. I have decided that by Tuesday we should know pretty much how far west he is going to get and if need be will shutter up etc. then.
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1466. afj3
Quoting weatherwatcher12:

Sorry, it really gets to me when people say things like that.

Sorry.
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1465. scott39
Quoting P451:
Tomas having clear problems with shear (Thank goodness!).

Major status will have to wait - if at all attained (we simply don't know - don't underestimate climatology and the ability for dry air and shear to rapidly increase even in the tropics).

I would not be surprised to see the winds come down by 5pm if he can't find himself in a more favorable environment by then. Might even see a small reduction by 11am (down to 90 maybe?) but sometimes the winds don't immediately respond to organization so they may just hold 100 intensity and see how the storm performs today.

Meanwhile, for those who can see tinypic.com images, here's 90 hours WV imagery of Tomas:



How much of an effect does a trough have on a weaker system compared to stronger one?
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1464. afj3
Quoting Neapolitan:

Oh, I see. In the future, you might get better and more direct results, then, if you just ask a question instead of trolling for a reaction. Just sayin'...

Thank you! That's exactly what I want to hear. How do I get the information? How do I ask--what's in store for (for me) Florida, South Carolina and Jamaica? When I do ask like that, I often get ignored and I suspect this site is for experts to compare their data interpretations and forecasts. If one is looking for just a more detailed forecast than he or she would get from local TV, sometimes I feel this blog is not the place save Dr. Masters's postings....
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Thanks StormWatcherCI!
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Quoting weatherwatcher12:

Why must people post things like this.


Don't let it bother you.
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1461. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Advice #9
TROPICAL CYCLONE ANGGREK (01U)
21:00 PM WST October 31 2010
======================================

At 8:00 pm WST (6:30pm Cocos local time) Tropical Cyclone Anggrek, Category 1 (996 hPa) located at 9.3S 96.7E or about 320 km north of Cocos Island has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 55. The cyclone is reported as moving south southeast at 5 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.0/S0.0/24HRS

Gale Force Winds
=================
50 NM from the center in northeastern sector
80 NM from the center in northwestern sector
50 NM from the center in southeastern sector
80 NM from the center in southwestern sector

Tropical Cyclone Anggrek is expected to intensify overnight as it moves southwards towards the Cocos Islands. Gales are not expected on the islands during Sunday evening, but may develop during Monday as the system moves closer and intensifies. The period of greatest risk will commence on Monday evening, with the system likely to pass close to the islands during Tuesday.

Overnight conditions will become favourable for intensification and there is a significant risk that people on the Cocos Islands will experience VERY DESTRUCTIVE wind gusts during Tuesday.

Tropical Cyclone Warnings
=========================
A Cyclone WARNING continues for people on the Cocos (Keeling) Islands.

Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: 10.2S 97.1E - 50 knots (CAT 2)
24 HRS: 11.2S 97.8E - 65 knots (CAT 3)
48 HRS: 12.8S 98.2E - 80 knots (CAT 3)
72 HRS: 14.6S 97.3E - 70 knots (CAT 3)

Additional Information
=======================
The deep convection continues to be displaced to the west of the LLCC under moderate vertical shear. A shear pattern consistently gives a DT of T3.0. The MET is 3.5 based on a 24 hour trend of D-. Pattern matching indicates adjustment to 3.0, hence both DT and PAT are 3.0. The final wind intensity estimate is assigned at 40 knots. In the last 6 hours there has been some development with deep convection increasing to the west of the LLCC. The tc_ssmis microwave image at 1058z was useful in identifying the centre location. Moderate shear continues over the system, however, conditions are forecast to become more favourable overnight with shear forecast to diminish and an outflow channel likely to become better established to the south.

Based on the expected conditions, and in general agreement with the trend in NWP
and STIPS, the system is forecast to reach hurricane intensity during Monday. The spread of model guidance indicates the Cocos Islands have a high risk of impact from hurricane force winds during Tuesday.

As the system passes south of 12S the ocean heat content becomes marginal. The system is also likely to encounter more stable boundary layer air in the wake of the mid latitude system. Hence the system is expected to weaken as it moves off to the southwest on Wednesday. STIPS is consistent with this but some NWP guidance do not weaken the system until later.
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1460. guygee
Quoting afj3:

I did it on purpose. People take themselves WAAAAY too seriously in this blog so the only way to get any answers from people (who, I admit, really do know their weather) is to act like a troll some time....
You convinced me, nice trolling:"-"
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Quoting scott39:
I didnt post that to discount Tomas. Hopefully the wind shear will keep him from becoming worse than what he will already be at landfall. Lets not start writing off Tomas. Like I said before Haiti would be devestated by a tropical storm.
Read on another blog this morning that shear is expected to relax somewhat later today. Also read that there is a weakness over Mexico but they said they were not sure how much or if it would affect Tomas.
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Quoting BahaHurican:
He wanted pple like u to answer. It's called "yanking your chain". I just ignored. Didn't even press [-] - not worth it IMO.

Sorry, it really gets to me when people say things like that.
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Haiti could be devastated by a TD right now...

And to our fishing Floridian...

Right now it looks like the only way FL would see effects from Tomas would be if it went far enough west to cross western Cuba and then hit the Keys... from that side. If it stays on / east of forecast track, or even goes as far W as central Cuba... it's more likely to keep heading N and NE in response 2 the trough rather than make a NW turn.

So the FL approach currently seems very much an outlier for now, though we know how much things can change...
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Complete Update



AOI
AOI AOI AOI

AOI AOI AOI

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
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1454. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting farupnorth:


Yep nearly all gone might end up a naked swirl soon ;)

Not only losing it's tail but all it's clothes


it is currenly winding down on its convective cycle number 3 next convective cycle is number four and that should help to achieve major hurricane status and to take us into convective cycle 5
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Quoting hurricanewatcher61:
Good Morning everyone, This is my first post here. Been a long time lurker here for many years and thanks to all who have been very informative. I would just like to say that living here in Florida all my life (49) years,and been through so many tropical storms and Hurricanes, watching the way the models have been with Tomas, i pray that this does not make the turn to the N or NE like some models are showing towards Haiti. I do not wish a strike on any country but for the first time ever thinking of something like this, i would rather it hit Florida than that country, at least we could handle the situation far more than that poor country. Lets all hope and pray something changes in the long run. Prayers go out to all others who have been in the path of this storm so far and who might be.
Welcome to the blog and I agree with you 100%.
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
I really think Jamaica needs to begin some serious preparations.

I was just in the plaza and it's like a ghost town and I hear nobody talking about it, however the news papers and met service are being responsible and informing. I should get my preps going, better safe than sorry.
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1451. afj3
Quoting BahaHurican:
Now I feel like minusing u... u could have just asked, "based on current conditions, is Tomas likely to be in a position to threaten FL during its lifetime?" But Noooo... u had to be melodramatic.

I'm not being melodramatic. I am being the opposite....
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Quoting kimoskee:


But if he leaves it behind then he'll be like the dog who had his tail cut off... "very, very mean". Not good. Not good all at.
I really think Jamaica needs to begin some serious preparations.
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Heavy convective rains from Tomas' eastern outer flank affecting Trinidad and Tobago, Barbados and Grenada. Tomas isn't moving much and could continue to rain on those regions.
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Quoting afj3:

I did it on purpose. I want to know if the storm is still a threat to Florida and people in this room do have the knowledge but often would rather let you know they have the knowledge than share it. So is Florida in the clear?
Now I feel like minusing u... u could have just asked, "based on current conditions, is Tomas likely to be in a position to threaten FL during its lifetime?" But Noooo... u had to be melodramatic.
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1446. scott39
Quoting farupnorth:


Yep nearly all gone might end up a naked swirl soon ;)

Not only losing it's tail but all it's clothes


I didnt post that to discount Tomas. Hopefully the wind shear will keep him from becoming worse than what he will already be at landfall. Lets not start writing off Tomas. Like I said before Haiti would be devestated by a tropical storm.
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Quoting HurricaneDean07:
Poll Time:
Do you think Tomas Will Reach Major Hurricane Status?
(A) YES
(B) NO
(C) HE WILL REACH ABOVE CATEGORY 3 STATUS

DO YOU THINK TOMAS WILL HIT HISPANOILA?
(A) YES
(B) NO
(C) IT WILL STAY WEST, AND HIT CUBA

a
b
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Quoting afj3:

I did it on purpose. I want to know if the storm is still a threat to Florida and people in this room do have the knowledge but often would rather let you know they have the knowledge than share it. So is Florida in the clear?

Oh, I see. In the future, you might get better and more direct results, then, if you just ask a question instead of trolling for a reaction. Just sayin'...
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13796
Quoting weatherwatcher12:

Why must people post things like this.
He wanted pple like u to answer. It's called "yanking your chain". I just ignored. Didn't even press [-] - not worth it IMO.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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