Unprecedented Hurricane Tomas pounding the Lesser Antilles

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:38 PM GMT on October 30, 2010

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Hurricane Tomas, an unprecedented Lesser Antilles hurricane for so late in the season, is bearing down on the islands of St. Lucia and St. Vincent with Category 1 winds of 75 mph. Recent radar imagery from the Martinique radar shows that Tomas is still in the organizing stage, with an eyewall that just closed off, and a weak area of echoes on the south side, due to modest wind shear of 10 knots caused by southerly upper-level winds. The Hurricane Hunters reported top surface winds in the northern eyewall near 75 mph. St.Lucia figures to get the worst blow from Tomas, as this island will experience the strong right-front quadrant of the storm--the north eyewall. Winds on the island were sustained at 46 mph, gusting to 67 mph, at 11am EDT. Winds at Barbados peaked at 37 mph, gusting to 56 mph, early this morning, and the pressure bottomed out at 994 mb. Satellite loops of Tomas show a large and well-organized Cape Verdes-type hurricane, with good upper level outflow on all sides except the south, and an impressive amount of heavy thunderstorm activity. This is a very dangerous hurricane that is just beginning to get going. You can follow the progress of Tomas through the islands today with our wundermap zoomed in on St. Lucia.


Figure 1. Morning radar image from the Martinique radar shows the eye of Tomas moving between the islands of St, Lucia to the north and St. Vincent and the Grenadines to the south. The southern portion of the eyewall had just closed off with this image. Image credit: Meteo France.

Intensity forecast for Tomas
Now that the eyewall of Tomas has completely closed off, a period of steady and possibly rapid intensification lasting until Sunday afternoon is likely. The intensification rate may then be slowed by an increasing flow of southwesterly upper-level winds, which are expected to bring dry air and a moderate 15 - 20 knots of wind shear to Tomas Sunday through Tuesday, according to the latest SHIPS model forecast. Shear is then expected to relent, allowing more intensification on Wednesday. Water temperatures are a record warm 29.5°C and the Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential--a measure of the total heat content of the ocean--is a very high 100 kJ/cm^2, which is very favorable for rapid intensification. I expect the Tomas will strengthen to a Category 3 or 4 hurricane by Wednesday.


Figure 2. Hurricane specialists Robbie Berg (background) and Dan Brown (foreground) discuss the latest data on Tomas last night at the National Hurricane Center.

Track forecast for Tomas
The computer models have come into better agreement this morning that after Tomas reaches the central Caribbean 4 - 5 days from now, a turn to the north or northeast is likely, in response to a strong trough of low pressure expected to develop over the Eastern U.S. The exact timing of this turn to the north or northeast is difficult to predict at this time, as steering currents will be weak in the Caribbean after Tomas passes through the Lesser Antilles today and Sunday. At this time, is appears that the Dominican Republic and Haiti are most at risk from a strike by Tomas, though the storm could move as far west as Jamaica, or as far east as the northern Lesser Antilles Islands.


Figure 3. Hurricane specialist Dan Brown computes Tomas' radius of tropical storm force winds using the old-fashioned paper track plot and dividers technique. Hurricane specialists at NHC commonly use a paper track plot to mark all storm center fixes and compute the current motion of the storm. A storm's current heading and speed in NHC advisories is usually a 12-hour average of the motion up until the final fix position.

Tomas, Shary, and the 2010 hurricane season in perspective
Tomas' formation ties 2010 with 1995 and 1887 for 3rd place for most number of named storms in an Atlantic hurricane season. Only 2005 (28 named storms) and 1933 (21 named storms) were busier. Atlantic hurricane records go back to 1851, though there were likely many missed named storms prior to the beginning of satellite coverage in the mid-1960s. The intensification of Shary and Tomas into hurricanes today brings the total number of hurricanes this season to twelve, tying 2010 with 1969 and 1887 for second place for most hurricanes in a season. The record is held by 2005 with fifteen hurricanes, and I don't think we'll beat that record this year!

The formation of Tomas so far south and east this late in the season is unprecedented in the historical record; no named storm has ever been present east of the Lesser Antilles (61.5°W) and south of 12°N latitude so late in the year. Hurricane Six of 1896 came close--it was also a tropical storm south of 12°N and east of 61.5°W on October 29, but nine hours earlier in the day. That storm recurved to the north and missed the Lesser Antilles. Tomas' track through the southern Lesser Antilles so late in the year is unprecedented. There have been only two other tropical storms that formed after October 15 south of 12°N and east of 61.5°W: Hurricane Jose, which was a tropical storm in that region on October 18, 1999, and Tropical Storm Nicolas, on October 16, 2003. Tomas most reminds me of a storm I flew into with the Hurricane Hunters--Hurricane Joan of 1988, which was a tropical storm on October 14 near Tomas' current location, and later strengthened into a Category 4 hurricane that hit Nicaragua. According to Chenoweth (2008), Tomas is the first tropical storm to cross through the Lesser Antilles Islands south of 16°N this late in the year since 1724. In that year, a tropical storm on 12 November crossed the islands at 13.7°N 61.5°W, and later became a hurricane that affected Jamaica. There was also a hurricane on 30 October 1671 that crossed 61.5°W at 13.3°N, and did damage on Barbados.

Another unusual aspect of Tomas' formation is that we now have two simultaneous hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean on October 30. There has been only one hurricane season since 1851 that had had two simultaneous hurricanes later in the year--1932, when Hurricane Ten and Hurricane Eleven both existed November 7 - 10. Today is also the 5th latest date in the season that there have been two simultaneous named storms in the Atlantic. The record was set way back in 1887, when Hurricane Eighteen and Tropical Storm Nineteen were both active on December 8. There were three years that had simultaneous November named storms: 1932, 1961, and 2001.

References
Chenoweth, M. and D. Divine (2008), "A document-based 318-year record of tropical cyclones in the Lesser Antilles, 1690-2007", Geochemistry, Geophysics, Geosystems, 9, doi:10.1029/2008GC002066.

Next update
I'll have more on Sunday by 3pm EDT. I'm headed home to Michigan today, after a very valuable week here at the National Hurricane Center. The experience gave me a new appreciatation for just how good the forecasters are at what they do. NHC's hurricane experts are truly world-class, and we are very fortunate to have such a talented group of hard-working forecasters keeping us informed on the dangers we face from Atlantic hurricanes.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting SLU:


Sure. What's for sure is that our vital Banana Industry could be completely destroyed. Those plants can't stand winds of more than 35 - 40mph.
No doubt the banana crop will be damaged, if not destroyed. Hasn't that industry dropped A LOT since the favorable status in the EU was dropped? Now, if the banana ketchup industry was disrupted, I'm not sure what the flea market would sell....
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Slowly but surely the NHC track is swinging around to the model consensus after 5 days.
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FWIW, today was only the seventh this season that two TCs were active on the same day, and the first since September 17 when Igor, Julia, and Karl were all hurricanes.
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Quoting Gorty:
I still think Florida and the Bahamas should watch this thing.

jmo,Tomas is not gonna strike any coast USA land
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well im going to get off to give out candy we are having our trick-or-treat tonight be back on later
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Quoting P451:
Wow, look at his core fill in with convection. Tomas is putting behind his core building troubles that he's had since he was an invest. As he clears the influence of the islands if that convective ball persists/dominates then this storm is going to ramp up quite quickly I would think...if it's not starting to do that already. Anyone wondering "what troubles" remember Tomas has and a broad and ragged core devoid of deep convection throughout his genesis. This appears to finally be over.

12HR IR loop.



THE INTENSITY IS BEING HELD AT 65 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY...WHICH COULD BE A LITTLE LOW BASED ON SOME OF THE DAMAGE
REPORTS THAT HAVE BEEN RECEIVED FROM HAM RADIO OPERATORS ON ST.
LUCIA AND ST. VINCENT.
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Quoting Gorty:
I still think Florida and the Bahamas should watch this thing.


yes but the nhc says it should begain to move pole word...(north)
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Afternoon all, im here sitting on our boat Grey Ghost in Rodney Bay (North side of Island) riding out the Hurricane. We came over from Barbados for the Fishing Tournament. Time is now 4:45pm and the wind is ripping in Rodney Bay we have no way of telling what the wind speed is bolwing thru here at.Our bigest problem is it will get dark in an hour. the Island is still out of power.
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--As of now, ACE for the season is 150.0475, placing it--obviously--just above 150, the ACE number generally considered the threshold for considering any particular season "hyperactive". (Not that the shear number of storms wasn't sort of a giveaway.)

--Shary, no longer an ACE contributor, ended up with 1.8225. That puts her in 13th place for the season, slightly above #14 Tomas (with 1.63) and just behind #12 Colin (with 1.945).

--Tomas, as mentioned above, is in 14th place ACE-wise, though even if he's still just a minimal hurricane at the next TWO, he'll leapfrog into 12th place (placing him ahead of, in order, Colin, Shary, Matthew, Hermine, Bonnie, Gaston, and Nicole).

(ACE numbers are preliminary, and may be revised upward or downward with the release of operation data included in the NHC's official storm reports.)
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Quoting IKE:
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE TOMAS WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 13.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.4 WEST. TOMAS IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF TOMAS WILL PASS BETWEEN ST. LUCIA AND ST. VINCENT THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA LATER
TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. TOMAS IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO
175 MILES...280 KM. DURING THE PAST HOUR...A WIND GUST TO 45 MPH...
72 KM/HR...WAS REPORTED ON MARTINIQUE AND A WIND GUST TO 40 MPH...
65 KM/HR...WAS REPORTED ON DOMINICA. RECENT REPORTS FROM HAM RADIO
OPERATORS INDICATE WIDESPREAD DAMAGE TO HOMES AND POWER LINES HAS
OCCURRED ON BARBADOS...ST. LUCIA...AND ST. VINCENT. ALSO...
HEWANORRA AIRPORT ON ST. LUCIA HAS BEEN CLOSED DUE TO FLOOD WATERS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992 MB...29.29 INCHES.
they are getting pounded in the island for sure
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5pm discussion:

000
WTNT41 KNHC 302046
TCDAT1
HURRICANE TOMAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
500 PM AST SAT OCT 30 2010

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING TOMAS
THIS AFTERNOON FOUND MAXIMUM 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 67 KT IN
THE NORTH QUADRANT...WHICH EQUATES TO ABOUT 60 KT SURFACE WINDS.
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE A CONSENSUS T4.0/65 KT FROM TAFB
AND SAB. THE STRUCTURE OF TOMAS HAS IMPROVED CONSIDERABLY IN RADAR
IMAGERY FROM MARTINIQUE...AND THE CYCLONE NOW POSSESSES A CLOSED 25
N MI DIAMETER EYE. THE INTENSITY IS BEING HELD AT 65 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY...WHICH COULD BE A LITTLE LOW BASED ON SOME OF THE DAMAGE
REPORTS THAT HAVE BEEN RECEIVED FROM HAM RADIO OPERATORS ON ST.
LUCIA AND ST. VINCENT.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/09. TOMAS REMAINS ON TRACK...
AND THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR
REASONING. THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF TOMAS IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BUILD WESTWARD ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES
FOR THE NEXT 96 HOURS...WHICH SHOULD KEEP TOMAS ON A WEST-NORTHWEST
TO WESTWARD TRACK. HOWEVER...A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY
ALONG THE U.S. WEST COAST IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD AND THEN
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...AND PINCH OFF A
CLOSED LOW OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO BY 120
HOURS. THE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AND LOW IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A
SIGNIFICANT EROSION OF THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE GREATER ANTILLES
RIDGE AND CAUSE THE STEERING CURRENTS ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA TO WEAKEN...ALLOWING TOMAS TO SLOW DOWN
CONSIDERABLY AND BEGIN TO MOVE POLEWARD. MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE
IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS GENERAL TRACK SCENARIO EXCEPT FOR
SPEED DIFFERENCES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS JUST AN UPDATE OF
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK...AND REMAINS ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE
OF THE NHC GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...BUT NOT AS FAR SOUTH AS THE GFS AND
ECMWF MODELS.

WITH A CLOSED EYE AND A FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT...TOMAS IS
FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO BEFORE WEAK
WESTERLY 400-300 MB WINDS UNDERCUT THE IMPRESSIVE OUTFLOW LAYER AND
ENTRAINMENT OF DRY MID-LEVEL AIR FROM THE WEST COMBINE TO INTERRUPT
THE STRENGTHENING PROCESS. HOWEVER...BY 48-72 HOURS...ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO IMPROVE...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW TOMAS TO
RESUME STEADY INTENSIFICATION. THE GFS-BASED SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS
ARE FORECASTING STEADY WEAKENING AFTER 48 HOURS...BUT THAT IS
BELIEVED TO BE DUE TO ERRONEOUS MODEL-INDUCED SOUTHWESTERLY
VERTICAL SHEAR AFFECTING TOMAS AS A RESULT OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
TRACK BEING ABOUT 120 N MI NORTH OF THE LARGE SCALE UPPER-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE DEPICTED IN THE GFS MODEL. THE INTENSITY FORECAST
REMAINS ABOVE THE SHIPS/LGEM MODELS...AND IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND LAST TWO GFDL MODEL RUNS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 30/2100Z 13.5N 61.4W 65 KT
12HR VT 31/0600Z 14.0N 63.4W 75 KT
24HR VT 31/1800Z 14.5N 65.7W 80 KT
36HR VT 01/0600Z 14.9N 67.9W 80 KT
48HR VT 01/1800Z 15.2N 69.7W 85 KT
72HR VT 02/1800Z 15.7N 72.4W 90 KT
96HR VT 03/1800Z 16.0N 74.0W 95 KT
120HR VT 04/1800Z 16.5N 74.5W 100 KT

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:
30/1745 UTC 13.2N 60.9W T4.0/4.0 TOMAS -- Atlantic


I was just wondering if 992 measured by dropsonde in the last update is a bit high for a hurricane.

4.0 ---> 987 hPa in the Atlantic Basin.
3.5 ---> 994 hPa "
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Significant slowing in forward speed forecast. Possible threat to Haiti and risk of rapid intensification in favourable conditions of central Caribbean.
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478. Gorty
I still think Florida and the Bahamas should watch this thing.
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477. JRRP
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476. IKE
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE TOMAS WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 13.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.4 WEST. TOMAS IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF TOMAS WILL PASS BETWEEN ST. LUCIA AND ST. VINCENT THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA LATER
TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. TOMAS IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO
175 MILES...280 KM. DURING THE PAST HOUR...A WIND GUST TO 45 MPH...
72 KM/HR...WAS REPORTED ON MARTINIQUE AND A WIND GUST TO 40 MPH...
65 KM/HR...WAS REPORTED ON DOMINICA. RECENT REPORTS FROM HAM RADIO
OPERATORS INDICATE WIDESPREAD DAMAGE TO HOMES AND POWER LINES HAS
OCCURRED ON BARBADOS...ST. LUCIA...AND ST. VINCENT. ALSO...
HEWANORRA AIRPORT ON ST. LUCIA HAS BEEN CLOSED DUE TO FLOOD WATERS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992 MB...29.29 INCHES.
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Quoting IKE:
2:00 PM AST Sat Oct 30
Location: 13.4°N 61.0°W
Max sustained: 75 mph
Moving: WNW at 12 mph
Min pressure: 992 mb

..........................................

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 61.4W AT 30/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB
EYE DIAMETER 25 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
..TOMAS CONTINUES TO LASH ST. LUCIA AND ST. VINCENT WITH STRONG WINDS...HEAVY RAINS...AND BATTERING SURF CONDITIONS...
5:00 PM AST Sat Oct 30
Location: 13.5°N 61.4°W
Max sustained: 75 mph
Moving: WNW at 10 mph
Min pressure: 992 mb
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Bursts of convective thunderstorms are now arriving in Barbados, St. Vincent and St. Lucia. It's possible that the storm could shrink in the Caribbean then expand in size when it slows in forward speed.
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473. IKE
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could tomas become another hazel???? look at that historical track
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470. IKE
2:00 PM AST Sat Oct 30
Location: 13.4°N 61.0°W
Max sustained: 75 mph
Moving: WNW at 12 mph
Min pressure: 992 mb

..........................................

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 61.4W AT 30/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB
EYE DIAMETER 25 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
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469. Gorty
Tomas should be a little stornger at 5 PM by looking at infrared.
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The historical tracks include Hurricane Hazel, which tracked through Hazel as a devastating storm and then made landfall in the United States. However, since October ends in about 31 hours, it'll be interesting to see what storms if any match up to Tomas' unprecedented position in November.
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467. SLU
Quoting largeeyes:


Thanks, that's exactly what I was wondering. Let us know what the needs will be after things clear up, please.


Sure. What's for sure is that our vital Banana Industry could be completely destroyed. Those plants can't stand winds of more than 35 - 40mph.
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21L/H/T/C1
MARK
13.25n/60.63w


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It looks as though Tomas has multiple vorticies within its eye that are coming together but blocked by flaring hot towers that eventually contribute to its CDO and then its eye.
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463. SLU
The eye now seems to be about 10 miles SW of St. Lucia. Therefore the voilent north-eastern quadrant is right now passing over the island. Safe to say it has received the brunt of TOMAS.
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462. amd
Quoting lickitysplit:
Why are the models so wacked out on Tomas?


because there is substantial uncertainty on the strength of the trough predicted to affect the eastern US this week. If the trough is strong and Tomas is a major hurricane, then Tomas could make a very hard turn in the Caribbean and head toward Haiti/DR. If the trough is more zonal or weaker, it could cause a stall or Tomas to loop, but eventually Tomas would continue to head west or even wsw after the trough leaves the eastern us.

IMHO, because we are in a strong la nina, I think the trough will be more zonal, and I am leaning toward the Euro solution in terms of track.
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Anse Chastenet better survive.

Best part of St. Lucia
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460. IKE
...SHARY LOSES TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS...
5:00 PM AST Sat Oct 30
Location: 39.2°N 50.9°W
Max sustained: 70 mph
Moving: NE at 48 mph
Min pressure: 991 mb
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Quoting SLU:


Well there are many people living on hillsides on the eastern part of the island. Especially in a place called Dennery which is very vulnerable to hurricanes. They always get affected by storm surges, flooding or high winds. Also there's a place in the northern part of St. Lucia called Babboneau which is an evelated plateau which is very vulnerable to high winds.


Thanks, that's exactly what I was wondering. Let us know what the needs will be after things clear up, please.
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458. SLU
Quoting largeeyes:


But how many actually are open to the easterlies? Most seem to be on the western side of the island, hopefully sheltered some what.


Well there are many people living on hillsides on the eastern part of the island. Especially in a place called Dennery which is very vulnerable to hurricanes. They always get affected by storm surges, flooding or high winds. Also there's a place in the northern part of St. Lucia called Babonneau which is an elevated plateau which is very vulnerable to high winds.
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Quoting largeeyes:
No way. Still moving WNW.Martinique Radar


Yes but very slowly
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Quoting lickitysplit:
Tomas seems to have stalled out for the moment. That sucks for St Lucia. Gonna build quickly now.
No way. Still moving WNW.Martinique Radar
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Quoting barbadosjulie:
Rains are still pouring here in Barbados...thunder & lighting has just begun..



I heard you'd had the all clear, I thought it a bit premature.
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Why are the models so wacked out on Tomas?
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:
30/1745 UTC 13.2N 60.9W T4.0/4.0 TOMAS -- Atlantic

That was three hours ago; I wonder whether that's up to 4.5 or even 5.0 now...
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Quoting SLU:
439. CaribBoy 4:13 PM AST on October 30, 2010

Things are really starting to happen now. St. Lucia is very mountainous so one can imagine those persons living on hillsides exposed to the easterly winds might have had gusts to over 120mph.


But how many actually are open to the easterlies? Most seem to be on the western side of the island, hopefully sheltered some what.
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Tomas seems to have stalled out for the moment. That sucks for St Lucia. Gonna build quickly now.
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450. JRRP
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
30/1745 UTC 13.2N 60.9W T4.0/4.0 TOMAS -- Atlantic

still with 75mph
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449. SLU
Quoting Mixed:
St Lucia Getting Some Serious Rain And Wind Now But Places Like Soufriere Seem To Be Okay Since It Is Mostly Surrounded By Mountains, For The South Its A Mess, Im in the north and its not looking to good coming into the night


Which part of St. Lucia are you in? Is there damage in your area?
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Quoting SLU:
439. CaribBoy 4:13 PM AST on October 30, 2010

Things are really starting to happen now. St. Lucia is very mountainous so one can imagine those persons living on hillsides exposed to the easterly winds might have had gusts to over 120mph.


I agree, winds are even stronger at higher elevation (possibly a category higher) !!
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447. SLU
My brother in Castries which is in the north of St. Lucia has just lost power. He said that things are very, very serious in St. Lucia.
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Quoting Dakster:
F-L-O-O-D-M-A-N.

It is a little dead in here considering a Cat 1 is out there threatening land.

I guess they are either banned or unable to post because there is no electricity/internet connection.


Either that or they left due to being fed up with the happiness that was going on in here earlier in the season...can you take a call?
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The 100MPH gust was probably the result of a hot tower considering the strong convection over st lucia. But I'm fully confident
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30/1745 UTC 13.2N 60.9W T4.0/4.0 TOMAS -- Atlantic
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443. SLU
439. CaribBoy 4:13 PM AST on October 30, 2010

Things are really starting to happen now. St. Lucia is very mountainous so one can imagine those persons living on hillsides exposed to the easterly winds might have had gusts to over 120mph.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.