Unprecedented Hurricane Tomas pounding the Lesser Antilles

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:38 PM GMT on October 30, 2010

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Hurricane Tomas, an unprecedented Lesser Antilles hurricane for so late in the season, is bearing down on the islands of St. Lucia and St. Vincent with Category 1 winds of 75 mph. Recent radar imagery from the Martinique radar shows that Tomas is still in the organizing stage, with an eyewall that just closed off, and a weak area of echoes on the south side, due to modest wind shear of 10 knots caused by southerly upper-level winds. The Hurricane Hunters reported top surface winds in the northern eyewall near 75 mph. St.Lucia figures to get the worst blow from Tomas, as this island will experience the strong right-front quadrant of the storm--the north eyewall. Winds on the island were sustained at 46 mph, gusting to 67 mph, at 11am EDT. Winds at Barbados peaked at 37 mph, gusting to 56 mph, early this morning, and the pressure bottomed out at 994 mb. Satellite loops of Tomas show a large and well-organized Cape Verdes-type hurricane, with good upper level outflow on all sides except the south, and an impressive amount of heavy thunderstorm activity. This is a very dangerous hurricane that is just beginning to get going. You can follow the progress of Tomas through the islands today with our wundermap zoomed in on St. Lucia.


Figure 1. Morning radar image from the Martinique radar shows the eye of Tomas moving between the islands of St, Lucia to the north and St. Vincent and the Grenadines to the south. The southern portion of the eyewall had just closed off with this image. Image credit: Meteo France.

Intensity forecast for Tomas
Now that the eyewall of Tomas has completely closed off, a period of steady and possibly rapid intensification lasting until Sunday afternoon is likely. The intensification rate may then be slowed by an increasing flow of southwesterly upper-level winds, which are expected to bring dry air and a moderate 15 - 20 knots of wind shear to Tomas Sunday through Tuesday, according to the latest SHIPS model forecast. Shear is then expected to relent, allowing more intensification on Wednesday. Water temperatures are a record warm 29.5°C and the Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential--a measure of the total heat content of the ocean--is a very high 100 kJ/cm^2, which is very favorable for rapid intensification. I expect the Tomas will strengthen to a Category 3 or 4 hurricane by Wednesday.


Figure 2. Hurricane specialists Robbie Berg (background) and Dan Brown (foreground) discuss the latest data on Tomas last night at the National Hurricane Center.

Track forecast for Tomas
The computer models have come into better agreement this morning that after Tomas reaches the central Caribbean 4 - 5 days from now, a turn to the north or northeast is likely, in response to a strong trough of low pressure expected to develop over the Eastern U.S. The exact timing of this turn to the north or northeast is difficult to predict at this time, as steering currents will be weak in the Caribbean after Tomas passes through the Lesser Antilles today and Sunday. At this time, is appears that the Dominican Republic and Haiti are most at risk from a strike by Tomas, though the storm could move as far west as Jamaica, or as far east as the northern Lesser Antilles Islands.


Figure 3. Hurricane specialist Dan Brown computes Tomas' radius of tropical storm force winds using the old-fashioned paper track plot and dividers technique. Hurricane specialists at NHC commonly use a paper track plot to mark all storm center fixes and compute the current motion of the storm. A storm's current heading and speed in NHC advisories is usually a 12-hour average of the motion up until the final fix position.

Tomas, Shary, and the 2010 hurricane season in perspective
Tomas' formation ties 2010 with 1995 and 1887 for 3rd place for most number of named storms in an Atlantic hurricane season. Only 2005 (28 named storms) and 1933 (21 named storms) were busier. Atlantic hurricane records go back to 1851, though there were likely many missed named storms prior to the beginning of satellite coverage in the mid-1960s. The intensification of Shary and Tomas into hurricanes today brings the total number of hurricanes this season to twelve, tying 2010 with 1969 and 1887 for second place for most hurricanes in a season. The record is held by 2005 with fifteen hurricanes, and I don't think we'll beat that record this year!

The formation of Tomas so far south and east this late in the season is unprecedented in the historical record; no named storm has ever been present east of the Lesser Antilles (61.5°W) and south of 12°N latitude so late in the year. Hurricane Six of 1896 came close--it was also a tropical storm south of 12°N and east of 61.5°W on October 29, but nine hours earlier in the day. That storm recurved to the north and missed the Lesser Antilles. Tomas' track through the southern Lesser Antilles so late in the year is unprecedented. There have been only two other tropical storms that formed after October 15 south of 12°N and east of 61.5°W: Hurricane Jose, which was a tropical storm in that region on October 18, 1999, and Tropical Storm Nicolas, on October 16, 2003. Tomas most reminds me of a storm I flew into with the Hurricane Hunters--Hurricane Joan of 1988, which was a tropical storm on October 14 near Tomas' current location, and later strengthened into a Category 4 hurricane that hit Nicaragua. According to Chenoweth (2008), Tomas is the first tropical storm to cross through the Lesser Antilles Islands south of 16°N this late in the year since 1724. In that year, a tropical storm on 12 November crossed the islands at 13.7°N 61.5°W, and later became a hurricane that affected Jamaica. There was also a hurricane on 30 October 1671 that crossed 61.5°W at 13.3°N, and did damage on Barbados.

Another unusual aspect of Tomas' formation is that we now have two simultaneous hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean on October 30. There has been only one hurricane season since 1851 that had had two simultaneous hurricanes later in the year--1932, when Hurricane Ten and Hurricane Eleven both existed November 7 - 10. Today is also the 5th latest date in the season that there have been two simultaneous named storms in the Atlantic. The record was set way back in 1887, when Hurricane Eighteen and Tropical Storm Nineteen were both active on December 8. There were three years that had simultaneous November named storms: 1932, 1961, and 2001.

References
Chenoweth, M. and D. Divine (2008), "A document-based 318-year record of tropical cyclones in the Lesser Antilles, 1690-2007", Geochemistry, Geophysics, Geosystems, 9, doi:10.1029/2008GC002066.

Next update
I'll have more on Sunday by 3pm EDT. I'm headed home to Michigan today, after a very valuable week here at the National Hurricane Center. The experience gave me a new appreciatation for just how good the forecasters are at what they do. NHC's hurricane experts are truly world-class, and we are very fortunate to have such a talented group of hard-working forecasters keeping us informed on the dangers we face from Atlantic hurricanes.

Jeff Masters

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8ft surf+ called for tomorrow in south PR with kelly slater and the irons brothers in the north shore. such a shame
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dang peeps this one can turn into a biggie?
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Quoting flsky:
I should have said approx 13,83




Small blob called Thomas??
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HPC doesn't see Tomas getting anywhere near the US.
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Quoting tornadodude:


thats true,

I actually got to meet Reed Timmer and check out the chasing vehicles back in May, was pretty awesome


Have you seen live tornados??.... Here in PR I've only seen water spouts in diffrent coastal areas....
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1185. flsky
I should have said approx 13,83
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Quoting sunlinepr:


If Thomas slows down, the trough from Conus will reach him farther East, and the expected NE turning will be closer to PR... Else if he accelerates he will go farther West turning NE closer to Jamaica....


Perfectly agree
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Quoting sunlinepr:


Yap, but you can implement some ideas within your budget....


thats true,

I actually got to meet Reed Timmer and check out the chasing vehicles back in May, was pretty awesome
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1182. flsky
Quoting sunlinepr:
In this WV anim. you can see that the steering current still has some way to go, until it has real effect on Thomas....




In this image, what is that popping up at approx. 13, 78?
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1181. JRRP
Link
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5830
In this WV anim. you can see that the steering current still has some way to go, until it has real effect on Thomas....



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Quoting tornadodude:


Id love to...

haha but i have no where near that kind of money


Yap, but you can implement some ideas within your budget....
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Gnite all, hope only rain and some wind will wake me up tomorrow....

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1177. Grothar
Really beginning to wind up.

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Quoting sunlinepr:



YOU CAN TRICK IT OUT LIKE THIS...

Link



Id love to...

haha but i have no where near that kind of money
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Quoting Grothar:


This is just like the old days, eh TD?


yessir,

those were good time no doubt
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1174. JLPR2
Quoting sunlinepr:


If Thomas slows down, the trough from Conus will reach him farther East, and the expected NE turning will be closer to PR... Else if he accelerates he will go farther West turning NE closer to Jamaica....


I do hope it takes the track with less possible victims. :\
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1173. JLPR2
Quoting KoritheMan:


I think he's saying PR might be under the gun because he's slowed a bit, which I imagine he suspects is the result of a brief weakening of the steering currents. Which it is. However, this collapse is not the precursor to recurvature, as water vapor imagery depicts a very strong ridge is building to the north in the wake of the trough that absorbed Shary this afternoon.


Ah, now I get it, thanks!
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Quoting JLPR2:


Eh?


If Thomas slows down, the trough from Conus will reach him farther East, and the expected NE turning will be closer to PR... Else if he accelerates he will go farther West turning NE closer to Jamaica....
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Quoting Mixie:
Tomas seems to be going rather slow huh? Think there might be something with the extreme loops back into the Atlantic? For Haiti's sake, I hope so.


See my above post. I hope as much as the next guy, but no. Unfortunately no. Big ridge moving in.
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1170. Grothar
Quoting sunlinepr:


THANKS Link


If you click on the Java animated screen it shows the exact movements. I always watch this one. Interesting to see the movements.
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1169. Mixie
Tomas seems to be going rather slow huh? Think there might be something with the extreme loops back into the Atlantic? For Haiti's sake, I hope so.
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1168. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
21L/H/T/C2
MARK
14.118n/62.83w


Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 171 Comments: 53841
Quoting JLPR2:


Eh?


I think he's saying PR might be under the gun because he's slowed a bit, which I imagine he suspects is the result of a brief weakening of the steering currents. Which it is. However, this collapse is not the precursor to recurvature, as water vapor imagery depicts a very strong ridge is building to the north in the wake of the trough that absorbed Shary this afternoon.
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1166. JLPR2
Quoting sunlinepr:
Moving WNW 9 mph... If he slows down more, move all turning N tracks east....



Eh?
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Quoting Grothar:

This is a little known and rarely used website on this blog, anyone want the link? Don't everyone jump at once.



THANKS Link

Link
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1164. Grenada
I'm now looking at the sting in the tail of Tomas. Very close to Trini.
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Quoting ayi:
The cyclone season in Australia is off to an early start. The first one has arrived before the official start of the season. The Cocos Islands are in for a hit. The islands are low lying, the highest "hill" about 10 metres above sea level.

IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0146 UTC 31/10/2010
Name: Tropical Cyclone 01U
Identifier: 01U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 8.1S
Longitude: 96.1E
Location Accuracy: within 40 nm [75 km]
Movement Towards: south southeast [162 deg]
Speed of Movement: 2 knots [4 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 35 knots [65 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 50 knots [95 km/h]
Central Pressure: 998 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 80 nm [150 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 80 nm [150 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 25 nm [45 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.0/3.0/D0.5/24HRS STT:0.0/6HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 150 nm [280 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 31/1200: 8.9S 96.3E: 060 [110]: 045 [085]: 992
+24: 01/0000: 9.9S 96.9E: 080 [150]: 060 [110]: 982
+36: 01/1200: 10.7S 97.3E: 100 [185]: 075 [140]: 970
+48: 02/0000: 11.7S 97.5E: 120 [220]: 080 [150]: 965
+60: 02/1200: 12.5S 97.4E: 140 [260]: 080 [150]: 965
+72: 03/0000: 13.2S 97.1E: 160 [295]: 080 [150]: 965
REMARKS:
The system was located using the available IR, NIR and microwave imagery, with one visible image available. The system was difficult to locate overnight with some navigation issues evident on the available microwave imagery. The deep convection continues to be displaced to the west of the LLCC under moderate vertical shear.

A shear pattern consistently gives a DT of T3.0. The MET is 3.0 based on a 24 hour trend of D-. Pattern matching does not indicate any adjustment to the MET and hence both DT and MET are 3.0. There are no FT constraints to assigning 3.0 hence FT and CI are set at 3.0. The 1518Z ASCAT pass indicates 25-30 knots in the northeast quadrant, outside the deep convection. Given the tendency for stronger winds to occur under the deep convection and for ASCAT to produce wind estiamtes that are slightly low [in this range], it is likely that winds in the deep convection are between 30 to 40 knots. The final wind intensity estimate is assigned at 35 knots. Conditions are forecast to become more favourable during Sunday with shear forecast to diminish and an outflow channel likely to become better established to the south. Based on the expected conditions, and in general agreement with the trend in NWP and STIPS intensity guidance it is forecast to reach hurricane force on Monday. The spread of model guidance indicates the Cocos Islands have a high risk of impact from hurricane force winds.

As the system passes south of 12S the ocean heat content becomes marginal. The system is also likely to encounter more stable boundary layer air in the wake of the mid latitude system. Hence the system is expected to weaken as it moves off to the southwest on Wednesday. STIPS is consistent with this but some NWP guidance does not weaken the system until later.


I heard from a friend that the preseason forecasts for the Australian cyclone season are phenomenal, similar to what they were for the Atlantic this year. They seem to be verifying so far, but then, early season activity has no correlation to seasonal activity as a whole, so we shall see. Could be quite interesting for you guys, though.
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1161. Grothar

This is a little known and rarely used website on this blog, anyone want the link? Don't everyone jump at once.

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Quoting tornadodude:
any ideas on how to "trick it out"?
/em>



YOU CAN TRICK IT OUT LIKE THIS...

Link

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Quoting davidwebb:


Sorry bro, I spoke this way because here in Venezuela we almost don't see Hurricanes, they always take the north way and go straight to Haiti and DR but this time Tomas borned just 500kms east side our coast and we had to fear about it...

Here authorities aren't ready to face an hurricane and there're fears about how will they face him tomorrow night when its eye will be located just 700kms north Caracas coast and hitting us with all his deadly power...

Also I'm thinking of Haiti and its cholera...

I would like to be wrong about Tomas's route is wrong, I guess you too bro but no, Hurricane is gaining power and it has headed northwest...

Here, we are waiting for rains at dawn...



You guys should get away with only some gusty winds and some heavy rainfall. Remember, the weakest quadrants of hurricanes are the southern and western ends. You'll be on the south side, where it's not as bad.
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1158. ayi
The cyclone season in Australia is off to an early start. The first one has arrived before the official start of the season. The Cocos Islands are in for a hit. The islands are low lying, the highest "hill" about 10 metres above sea level.

IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0146 UTC 31/10/2010
Name: Tropical Cyclone 01U
Identifier: 01U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 8.1S
Longitude: 96.1E
Location Accuracy: within 40 nm [75 km]
Movement Towards: south southeast [162 deg]
Speed of Movement: 2 knots [4 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 35 knots [65 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 50 knots [95 km/h]
Central Pressure: 998 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 80 nm [150 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 80 nm [150 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 25 nm [45 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.0/3.0/D0.5/24HRS STT:0.0/6HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 150 nm [280 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 31/1200: 8.9S 96.3E: 060 [110]: 045 [085]: 992
+24: 01/0000: 9.9S 96.9E: 080 [150]: 060 [110]: 982
+36: 01/1200: 10.7S 97.3E: 100 [185]: 075 [140]: 970
+48: 02/0000: 11.7S 97.5E: 120 [220]: 080 [150]: 965
+60: 02/1200: 12.5S 97.4E: 140 [260]: 080 [150]: 965
+72: 03/0000: 13.2S 97.1E: 160 [295]: 080 [150]: 965
REMARKS:
The system was located using the available IR, NIR and microwave imagery, with one visible image available. The system was difficult to locate overnight with some navigation issues evident on the available microwave imagery. The deep convection continues to be displaced to the west of the LLCC under moderate vertical shear.

A shear pattern consistently gives a DT of T3.0. The MET is 3.0 based on a 24 hour trend of D-. Pattern matching does not indicate any adjustment to the MET and hence both DT and MET are 3.0. There are no FT constraints to assigning 3.0 hence FT and CI are set at 3.0. The 1518Z ASCAT pass indicates 25-30 knots in the northeast quadrant, outside the deep convection. Given the tendency for stronger winds to occur under the deep convection and for ASCAT to produce wind estiamtes that are slightly low [in this range], it is likely that winds in the deep convection are between 30 to 40 knots. The final wind intensity estimate is assigned at 35 knots. Conditions are forecast to become more favourable during Sunday with shear forecast to diminish and an outflow channel likely to become better established to the south. Based on the expected conditions, and in general agreement with the trend in NWP and STIPS intensity guidance it is forecast to reach hurricane force on Monday. The spread of model guidance indicates the Cocos Islands have a high risk of impact from hurricane force winds.

As the system passes south of 12S the ocean heat content becomes marginal. The system is also likely to encounter more stable boundary layer air in the wake of the mid latitude system. Hence the system is expected to weaken as it moves off to the southwest on Wednesday. STIPS is consistent with this but some NWP guidance does not weaken the system until later.
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1157. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
short range and long range
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 171 Comments: 53841
1156. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 171 Comments: 53841
1155. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 171 Comments: 53841
Moving WNW 9 mph... If he slows down more, move all turning N tracks east....

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1153. Grothar
Quoting tornadodude:



well maybe it depends on which way everyone lies down? lol


This is just like the old days, eh TD?
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Quoting KoritheMan:


It seems like you were being sarcastic with your comments though. Could just be me. If it is, apologies.


Sorry bro, I spoke this way because here in Venezuela we almost don't see Hurricanes, they always take the north way and go straight to Haiti and DR but this time Tomas borned just 500kms east side our coast and we had to fear about it...

Here authorities aren't ready to face an hurricane and there're fears about how will they face him tomorrow night when its eye will be located just 700kms north Caracas coast and hitting us with all his deadly power...

Also I'm thinking of Haiti and its cholera...

I would like to be wrong about Tomas's route is northwest, I guess you too bro but no, Hurricane is gaining power and it has headed northwest...

Here, we are waiting for rains at dawn...

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Quoting TampaSpin:

NOt going north on this model....has to go west!



Looks like it misses the Trough on this model and High Pressure is coming back in......go west here as well.


Misses trough on this model and high pressure is moving back in forcing Tomas West.


Here is 3 very credible models that block Tomas from moving North and forcing him West. You all decide!


ecmwf-ensmean 2010103012 Forecast slp Java Animation

Your right.. it did not go North, it died.


gfs 2010103018 Forecast slp Java Animation


If you run the full run, and not the short run.. it goes North over Haiti

I have no idea what the first model is, I can't see the writing.
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1150. scott39
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
Now thats whats confusing! Out of those 30 models--7 our going N.
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6784
Quoting Grothar:


If there are only two seats, how do you know it is a 15 passenger van? The rest of people have to lie down??



well maybe it depends on which way everyone lies down? lol
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Quoting davidwebb:


Nope...

I live in Caracas, Venezuela. By the moment Tomas is 500kms north Margarita Island...

Today it rained a lot here and tomorrow I think it will be the same my friend...



It seems like you were being sarcastic with your comments though. Could just be me. If it is, apologies.
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1147. JLPR2
Quoting roleli:


The perennial reality is whether the system will agree with the models or NHC or any of them.

Right now Jamaica can do without the rain, especially after the damage done by the tail of Nicole. Rain and Wind would be a major disaster


We (PR) could flood easily too after Otto's mess. :\
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1145. JRRP
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5830
1144. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 171 Comments: 53841
Quoting KoritheMan:


Like I said, people jump on the retirement bandwagon too quickly. This is only my opinion of course, but every hurricane is bad. They all down trees, power lines, knock out communications, end lives, destroy property, etc. The list goes on. Are we going to retire every hurricane just because a localized area may get hit especially hard? Think about it.

Retirement should be reserved only for the most damaging and deadly of storms, such as Georges, Ike, Hanna, etc., not storms like Igor which produce strong winds because of the fast forward speed.

I'm not trying to be unsympathetic, but we can't just go retiring everything. Like the time Hawaii requested retirement of Ioke.


Well, it appears the World Meteorological Organization isn't listening to you...
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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