Unprecedented Hurricane Tomas pounding the Lesser Antilles

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:38 PM GMT on October 30, 2010

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Hurricane Tomas, an unprecedented Lesser Antilles hurricane for so late in the season, is bearing down on the islands of St. Lucia and St. Vincent with Category 1 winds of 75 mph. Recent radar imagery from the Martinique radar shows that Tomas is still in the organizing stage, with an eyewall that just closed off, and a weak area of echoes on the south side, due to modest wind shear of 10 knots caused by southerly upper-level winds. The Hurricane Hunters reported top surface winds in the northern eyewall near 75 mph. St.Lucia figures to get the worst blow from Tomas, as this island will experience the strong right-front quadrant of the storm--the north eyewall. Winds on the island were sustained at 46 mph, gusting to 67 mph, at 11am EDT. Winds at Barbados peaked at 37 mph, gusting to 56 mph, early this morning, and the pressure bottomed out at 994 mb. Satellite loops of Tomas show a large and well-organized Cape Verdes-type hurricane, with good upper level outflow on all sides except the south, and an impressive amount of heavy thunderstorm activity. This is a very dangerous hurricane that is just beginning to get going. You can follow the progress of Tomas through the islands today with our wundermap zoomed in on St. Lucia.


Figure 1. Morning radar image from the Martinique radar shows the eye of Tomas moving between the islands of St, Lucia to the north and St. Vincent and the Grenadines to the south. The southern portion of the eyewall had just closed off with this image. Image credit: Meteo France.

Intensity forecast for Tomas
Now that the eyewall of Tomas has completely closed off, a period of steady and possibly rapid intensification lasting until Sunday afternoon is likely. The intensification rate may then be slowed by an increasing flow of southwesterly upper-level winds, which are expected to bring dry air and a moderate 15 - 20 knots of wind shear to Tomas Sunday through Tuesday, according to the latest SHIPS model forecast. Shear is then expected to relent, allowing more intensification on Wednesday. Water temperatures are a record warm 29.5°C and the Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential--a measure of the total heat content of the ocean--is a very high 100 kJ/cm^2, which is very favorable for rapid intensification. I expect the Tomas will strengthen to a Category 3 or 4 hurricane by Wednesday.


Figure 2. Hurricane specialists Robbie Berg (background) and Dan Brown (foreground) discuss the latest data on Tomas last night at the National Hurricane Center.

Track forecast for Tomas
The computer models have come into better agreement this morning that after Tomas reaches the central Caribbean 4 - 5 days from now, a turn to the north or northeast is likely, in response to a strong trough of low pressure expected to develop over the Eastern U.S. The exact timing of this turn to the north or northeast is difficult to predict at this time, as steering currents will be weak in the Caribbean after Tomas passes through the Lesser Antilles today and Sunday. At this time, is appears that the Dominican Republic and Haiti are most at risk from a strike by Tomas, though the storm could move as far west as Jamaica, or as far east as the northern Lesser Antilles Islands.


Figure 3. Hurricane specialist Dan Brown computes Tomas' radius of tropical storm force winds using the old-fashioned paper track plot and dividers technique. Hurricane specialists at NHC commonly use a paper track plot to mark all storm center fixes and compute the current motion of the storm. A storm's current heading and speed in NHC advisories is usually a 12-hour average of the motion up until the final fix position.

Tomas, Shary, and the 2010 hurricane season in perspective
Tomas' formation ties 2010 with 1995 and 1887 for 3rd place for most number of named storms in an Atlantic hurricane season. Only 2005 (28 named storms) and 1933 (21 named storms) were busier. Atlantic hurricane records go back to 1851, though there were likely many missed named storms prior to the beginning of satellite coverage in the mid-1960s. The intensification of Shary and Tomas into hurricanes today brings the total number of hurricanes this season to twelve, tying 2010 with 1969 and 1887 for second place for most hurricanes in a season. The record is held by 2005 with fifteen hurricanes, and I don't think we'll beat that record this year!

The formation of Tomas so far south and east this late in the season is unprecedented in the historical record; no named storm has ever been present east of the Lesser Antilles (61.5°W) and south of 12°N latitude so late in the year. Hurricane Six of 1896 came close--it was also a tropical storm south of 12°N and east of 61.5°W on October 29, but nine hours earlier in the day. That storm recurved to the north and missed the Lesser Antilles. Tomas' track through the southern Lesser Antilles so late in the year is unprecedented. There have been only two other tropical storms that formed after October 15 south of 12°N and east of 61.5°W: Hurricane Jose, which was a tropical storm in that region on October 18, 1999, and Tropical Storm Nicolas, on October 16, 2003. Tomas most reminds me of a storm I flew into with the Hurricane Hunters--Hurricane Joan of 1988, which was a tropical storm on October 14 near Tomas' current location, and later strengthened into a Category 4 hurricane that hit Nicaragua. According to Chenoweth (2008), Tomas is the first tropical storm to cross through the Lesser Antilles Islands south of 16°N this late in the year since 1724. In that year, a tropical storm on 12 November crossed the islands at 13.7°N 61.5°W, and later became a hurricane that affected Jamaica. There was also a hurricane on 30 October 1671 that crossed 61.5°W at 13.3°N, and did damage on Barbados.

Another unusual aspect of Tomas' formation is that we now have two simultaneous hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean on October 30. There has been only one hurricane season since 1851 that had had two simultaneous hurricanes later in the year--1932, when Hurricane Ten and Hurricane Eleven both existed November 7 - 10. Today is also the 5th latest date in the season that there have been two simultaneous named storms in the Atlantic. The record was set way back in 1887, when Hurricane Eighteen and Tropical Storm Nineteen were both active on December 8. There were three years that had simultaneous November named storms: 1932, 1961, and 2001.

References
Chenoweth, M. and D. Divine (2008), "A document-based 318-year record of tropical cyclones in the Lesser Antilles, 1690-2007", Geochemistry, Geophysics, Geosystems, 9, doi:10.1029/2008GC002066.

Next update
I'll have more on Sunday by 3pm EDT. I'm headed home to Michigan today, after a very valuable week here at the National Hurricane Center. The experience gave me a new appreciatation for just how good the forecasters are at what they do. NHC's hurricane experts are truly world-class, and we are very fortunate to have such a talented group of hard-working forecasters keeping us informed on the dangers we face from Atlantic hurricanes.

Jeff Masters

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"Has a weather station gone down in Melville Hall, Dominica? Not seeing the data for it."

It may well have done. I live a few miles away on the norh coast of Dominica and we have been getting some powerful combined and prolonged gusts approx 2.00am to 3.30am here and earlier, so the masts and system could be down. The sea has been powerful here too although on the north coast and heaven knows whats happening on the west coast exposed to Tomas.
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Quoting KoritheMan:


What else do you think the upper low pinched off from if not for the departing trough?

As far as your comment about zonal westerlies being present in the Caribbean shearing Tomas, you are correct, but it is my opinion that the anticyclone centered near northeastern South America is the culprit of said zonal mid- upper flow, not the trough.

But I guess we can agree to disagree. :)


My personal notes on where that upper low came from (copy & paste from my journal entry on 90L):

"Although a deep-layered ridge was passing by to the north (of 90L) on the 29th, the shear did not relax as relatively lower upper atmospheric pressures between the deep-layered ridge and the expansive anticyclonic outflow of strengthening Tropical Storm Tomas to the south led to an east-west oriented upper trough directly over the surface low that maintained the shear."

That east-west upper trough has evolved into said cut-off upper low, which has finally finished off 90L yesterday and is also enhancing northeastern outflow of Tomas right now.

Also think about this. Upper troughs moves from west to east, so when an upper low pinches off from a trough and gets cut-off, it should be left behind the east-moving upper trough (i.e. the upper low would be WEST of the upper trough it originated from). But, this upper low is EAST of the upper trough that absorbed Shary, so its unlikely that it was born from the upper trough that absorbed Shary.

Well I guess the zonal westerlies are due to the spread out pressure gradient between the the anticyclone over NE South America and the south side of the upper trough.
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just missed downtown
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1290. Grenada
Quoting DDR:

Oh ok,sry about the mis-spelling
Im out for now,ttyl



No problem, it is pronounced that way. :)
Member Since: August 21, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 96
1289. DDR
Quoting Grenada:



I'm from the UK but my husband was born in Mt. Moritz.

Oh ok,sry about the mis-spelling
Im out for now,ttyl
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1288. Grenada
Quoting NCHurricane2009:


How far away is Dominica in relation to Tomas's center?



Next but one Island to St. Lucia (I think)
Member Since: August 21, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 96
1287. Grenada
Quoting DDR:

Wow!
Theres a chance we are related,my grand mother was born and raised there,moved to Trinidad when she was 19,i have family from that area but i dont know them personally.



I'm from the UK but my husband was born in Mt. Moritz.
Member Since: August 21, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 96
1286. DDR
Quoting Mixie:


I think we were wise - remember 91L veered almost all of 90 degrees north only hours before it was supposed to reach us. and everyone here seems to have forgotten that it was a system bringing torrential rains - not a TS or hurricane. If we'd had those rains - if 91L hadn't stopped to consider where he was going, then it wouldn't have been good at all for us - landslides and the like - I'm grateful he re-considered his strategy and spared us what I think could have become Katrina-like conditions - at least between Wrightson Road and Ariapita Ave, POS. All well and good, our people should stop complaining about having warning - that was all in order and very necessary.

Hi there
You correct,it was close indeed.
You how trinis are...
have you seen the radar? we're not complete out of it yet!
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Quoting NCHurricane2009:


The upper low NE of Tomas I thought has nothing to do with the big upper trough NW of Tomas. Okay, I do agree with you that if the upper low to the NE flattens out like the models say, then we shouldn't see Tomas take advantage of its outflow enhacement for too long.

The upper trough to the NW (the one that absorbed Shary) seems to be generating zonal westerlies in the Caribbean Sea to the west of Tomas (which would choke Tomas's western outflow). But at the same time, it is enhancing its poleward outflow. I think the upper trough to the NW will slow Tomas's strengthening because of the zonal westerlies, even if there is some enhanced poleward outflow.


What else do you think the upper low pinched off from if not for the departing trough?

As far as your comment about zonal westerlies being present in the Caribbean shearing Tomas, you are correct, but it is my opinion that the anticyclone centered near northeastern South America is the culprit of said zonal mid- upper flow, not the trough.

But I guess we can agree to disagree. :)
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1284. Grenada
Quoting DDR:
LOL!
There was massive chaos here on Friday,don't know what that says about us.



St. George's was a blockade, all the shops heaving with people, it was a nightmare getting home from work and they let us out early. Monday we have to put all the computers back together.... should be fun.
Member Since: August 21, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 96
Quoting Mixie:
Has a weather station gone down in Melville Hall, Dominica? Not seeing the data for it.


How far away is Dominica in relation to Tomas's center?
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1282. DDR
Quoting Grenada:



That I am.

Wow!
Theres a chance we are related,my grand mother was born and raised there,moved to Trinidad when she was 19,i have family from that area but i dont know them personally.
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Quoting Grenada:


We were told that too but knowing Grenadians 'we head is hard' lol
` I bet no one was playing football on river road today like ivan day
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Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


was it really a 1.75 mile wide tornado?


yeah link
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Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 31st day of the month at 07:08Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 309)
Storm Number & Year: 21L in 2010
Storm Name: Tomas (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 3
Observation Number: 09
A. Time of Center Fix: 31st day of the month at 6:48:10Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 13°50'N 62°35'W (13.8333N 62.5833W)
B. Center Fix Location: 99 miles (159 km) to the WNW (296°) from Kingstown, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,967m (9,734ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 59kts (~ 67.9mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 8 nautical miles (9 statute miles) to the SE (129°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 227° at 81kts (From the SW at ~ 93.2mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 8 nautical miles (9 statute miles) to the SE (129°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 984mb (29.06 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 9°C (48°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,048m (10,000ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 16°C (61°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,043m (9,984ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 9°C (48°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Open in the southeast
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 22 nautical miles (25 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 97kts (~ 111.6mph) in the northeast quadrant at 5:35:00Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 84kts (~ 96.7mph) in the northwest quadrant at 6:54:00Z
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 18°C (64°F) which was observed 6 nautical miles to the SE (135°) from the flight level center
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Quoting KoritheMan:


It's unlikely, IMO. The upper low is not only quite elongated, but the GFS also quickly deamplifies it and moves it NE, away from Tomas. All the while, the hurricane will be moving westward away from the upper low.

In the meantime though, the trough that absorbed Shary (which said upper low is associated with, by the way) will likely continue to keep the vigor of the poleward outflow channel currently seen emanating from the north in satellite imagery, which could potentially favor some modest intensification over the next 12 hours or so.


The upper low NE of Tomas I thought has nothing to do with the big upper trough NW of Tomas. Okay, I do agree with you that if the upper low to the NE flattens out like the models say, then we shouldn't see Tomas take advantage of its outflow enhacement for too long.

The upper trough to the NW (the one that absorbed Shary) seems to be generating zonal westerlies in the Caribbean Sea to the west of Tomas (which would choke Tomas's western outflow). But at the same time, it is enhancing its poleward outflow. I think the upper trough to the NW will slow Tomas's strengthening because of the zonal westerlies, even if there is some enhanced poleward outflow.
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1277. Mixie
Quoting DDR:
LOL!
There was massive chaos here on Friday,don't know what that says about us.


I think we were wise - remember 91L veered almost all of 90 degrees north only hours before it was supposed to reach us. and everyone here seems to have forgotten that it was a system bringing torrential rains - not a TS or hurricane. If we'd had those rains - if 91L hadn't stopped to consider where he was going, then it wouldn't have been good at all for us - landslides and the like - I'm grateful he re-considered his strategy and spared us what I think could have become Katrina-like conditions - at least between Wrightson Road and Ariapita Ave, POS. All well and good, our people should stop complaining about having warning - that was all in order and very necessary.
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1276. Grenada
Quoting DDR:
Grenada are you from Mt Moris by chance?



That I am. (Mt. Moritz)
Member Since: August 21, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 96
Quoting NCHurricane2009:


Hmmm, reviewing the synoptic history in my notes of Julia in my journal. I believe you are right, there was a highly amplified upper trough to the NE of Julia (which I guess boosted outflow on Julia's north side), and there was an upper low due west of Julia, which induced some southerly shear. But the outflow boost won over.

With Tomas, I see an upper low to the NE that is enhancing its outflow. Do you think this will allow Tomas to pull a surprise?


It's unlikely, IMO. The upper low is not only quite elongated, but the GFS also quickly deamplifies it and moves it NE, away from Tomas. All the while, the hurricane will be moving westward away from the upper low.

In the meantime though, the trough that absorbed Shary (which said upper low is associated with, by the way) will likely continue to keep the vigor of the poleward outflow channel currently seen emanating from the north in satellite imagery, which could potentially favor some modest intensification over the next 12 hours or so.
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1274. DDR
Grenada are you from Mt Moris by chance?
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1273. Mixie
Has a weather station gone down in Melville Hall, Dominica? Not seeing the data for it.
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1272. DDR
LOL!
There was massive chaos here on Friday,don't know what that says about us.
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Quoting tornadodude:


yeah that was really quite the day...

CycloneOz came within a mile of accidentally driving into it


was it really a 1.75 mile wide tornado?
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1270. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Advice #7
TROPICAL CYCLONE ANGGREK (01U)
15:00 PM WST October 31 2010
======================================

At 2:00 pm WST (12:30pm Cocos local time) Tropical Cyclone Anggrek, Category 1 (998 hPa) 8.6S 96.3E or about 405 km north of Cocos Island has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southeast at 3 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.0/D0.0/24HRS

Gale Force Winds
=================
50 NM from the center in northeastern sector
80 NM from the center in northwestern sector
50 NM from the center in southeastern sector
80 NM from the center in southwestern sector

Tropical Cyclone Anggrek is expected to intensify overnight as it moves southwards towards the Cocos Islands. Gales are not expected on the islands during Sunday, but may develop during Monday as the system moves closer and intensifies. The period of greatest risk will commence on Monday evening, with the system likely to pass close to the islands during Tuesday.

Overnight conditions will become favorable for intensification and there is a significant risk that people on the Cocos Islands will experience VERY DESTRUCTIVE wind gusts.

Tropical Cyclone Warnings
=========================
A Cyclone WARNING continues for people on the Cocos (Keeling) Islands.

Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: 8.9S 96.3E - 45 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS: 10.5S 97.4E - 60 knots (CAT 2)
48 HRS: 12.8S 97.8E - 80 knots (CAT 3)
72 HRS: 14.5S 97.2E - 75 knots (CAT 3)

Additional Information
=======================
The deep convection continues to be displaced to the west of the LLCC under moderate vertical shear. A shear pattern consistently gives a DT of T3.0. The MET is 3.0 based on a 24 hour trend of S. Pattern matching does not indicate any adjustment to the MET and hence both DT and MET are 3.0. The final wind intensity estimate is assigned at 40 knots.

There has been no development over the last 24 hours as the system continues to experience moderate shear. However conditions are forecast to become more favorable overnight with shear forecast to diminish and an outflow channel likely to become better established to the south.

Based on the expected conditions, and in general agreement with the trend in NWP and STIPS intensity guidance it is forecast to reach hurricane force on Monday.

The spread of model guidance indicates the Cocos Islands have a high risk of impact from hurricane force winds.

As the system passes south of 12S the ocean heat content becomes marginal. The system is also likely to encounter more stable boundary layer air in the wake of the mid latitude system. Hence the system is expected to weaken as it moves off to the southwest on Wednesday. STIPS is consistent with this but some NWP guidance does not weaken the system until later.
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Quoting KoritheMan:


Julia was interacting with a trough at the time. Tomas is not. Trough interaction has been known to induce rapid intensification depending upon the orientation of the trough and the hurricane's proximity to it. Charley in 2004 is a good example.


Hmmm, reviewing the synoptic history in my notes of Julia in my journal. I believe you are right, there was a highly amplified upper trough to the NE of Julia (which I guess boosted outflow on Julia's north side), and there was an upper low due west of Julia, which induced some southerly shear. But the outflow boost won over.

With Tomas, I see an upper low to the NE that is enhancing its outflow. Do you think this will allow Tomas to pull a surprise?
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1268. DDR
Quoting Grenada:
DDR, are you getting any thunder or lightening with the rain?

Not yet,i'm in North-west Trinidad.There is a moderate amount of lightning,rain is coming toward me from the south,if it holds it should reach here within 2 hours
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Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


remember we were all watching on here as that tornado went through yazoo city? That episode was on stormchasers last week... it was really sad, and hit home...


yeah that was really quite the day...

CycloneOz came within a mile of accidentally driving into it
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1266. Grenada
Quoting DDR:

True,they did warn of possible unsettled conditions all the way from Friday night to Sunday here.The rain is falling in the sparsely populated areas for now,which is a good thing.


We were told that too but knowing Grenadians 'we head is hard' lol
Member Since: August 21, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 96
984mb (29.06 inHg) Sea Level (Surface) 27.8°C (82.0°F) 26.0°C (78.8°F) 105° (from the ESE) 10 knots (12 mph)
1000mb -148m (-486 ft) Other data not available.
925mb 544m (1,785 ft) 24.6°C (76.3°F) 22.4°C (72.3°F) 150° (from the SSE) 16 knots (18 mph)
850mb 1,284m (4,213 ft) 21.8°C (71.2°F) 17.5°C (63.5°F) 130° (from the SE) 15 knots (17 mph)
700mb 2,959m (9,708 ft) 15.8°C (60.4°F) Approximately 11°C (52°F) 235° (from the SW) 2 knots (2 mph)

yet dropsonde still says 984
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Quoting JFLORIDA:
You guys shouldn't crack wise with the political stuff and then expect someone shouldn't answer, This is an international site.


True, but I'm not the one who originally mentioned Chavez.
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1263. Grenada
DDR, are you getting any thunder or lightening with the rain?
Member Since: August 21, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 96
Time: 06:48:00Z
Coordinates: 13.8333N 62.5833W
Acft. Static Air Press: 696.5 mb (~ 20.57 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 3,008 meters (~ 9,869 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 981.6 mb (~ 28.99 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 172° at 2 knots (From the S at ~ 2.3 mph)
Air Temp: 15.0°C (~ 59.0°F)
Dew Pt: 9.7°C (~ 49.5°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 4 knots (~ 4.6 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 24 knots* (~ 27.6 mph*)
SFMR Rain Rate: 3 mm/hr* (~ 0.12 in/hr*)


center... nice pressure drop
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1261. DDR
Quoting Grenada:



And the warnings have been taken down which means people won't be expecting it...... again!!

True,they did warn of possible unsettled conditions all the way from Friday night to Sunday here.The rain is falling in the sparsely populated areas for now,which is a good thing.
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Quoting NCHurricane2009:


I hate it though when you think you know what's going on, and then the storm does something freakish. For example, when Hurricane Julia earlier this season exploded into a cat. 4 when there was some southerly vertical shear. What the heck was that?!

I hope Tomas has no surprises in store. With some light shear, I think we should see SLOW strenghtening. Please Tomas, don't get into the Halloween spirit and freak us out like Julia. Please!


Julia was interacting with a trough at the time. Tomas is not. Trough interaction has been known to induce rapid intensification depending upon the orientation of the trough and the hurricane's proximity to it. Charley in 2004 is a good example.
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1259. Grenada
Quoting NCHurricane2009:


Aaah, I see. I need to memorize the precise locations of the islands out there (be able to list them from north to south correctly in order).

Tomas looks like the number 9 on sat. imagery. So, I presume since you are south of Tomas's center, you waiting for the rain bands that are east of center to pass over you. Hopefully the rain won't be severe. As far as wind, I don't think it'll be too bad.



I live on a mountain so rain is better than wind for me.
Member Since: August 21, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 96
Quoting Grenada:



No we are South of them just above T & T. Right now, calm almost still, no rain... yet.


Aaah, I see. I need to memorize the precise locations of the islands out there (be able to list them from north to south correctly in order).

Tomas looks like the number 9 on sat. imagery. So, I presume since you are south of Tomas's center, you waiting for the rain bands that are east of center to pass over you. Hopefully the rain won't be severe. As far as wind, I don't think it'll be too bad.
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1257. Grenada
Quoting JFLORIDA:
You guys shouldn't crack wise with the political stuff and then expect someone shouldn't answer, This is an international site.



Agree
Member Since: August 21, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 96
1255. Grenada
Quoting DDR:

I hope you fair well.Grand Anse bay, now thats a beautiful place!
It isnt looking to good for Tobago and parts of eastern and southern Trinidad



And the warnings have been taken down which means people won't be expecting it...... again!!
Member Since: August 21, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 96
1254. DDR
Quoting Grenada:



I suppose we can expect that too. Hope the flooding is not too bad, that will be our problem in St. George's and Grand Anse areas.

I hope you fair well.Grand Anse bay, now thats a beautiful place!
It isnt looking to good for Tobago and parts of eastern and southern Trinidad
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Quoting KoritheMan:


Yeah. I hope so too. The models don't really show much intensification, so we'll see.


I hate it though when you think you know what's going on, and then the storm does something freakish. For example, when Hurricane Julia earlier this season exploded into a cat. 4 when there was some southerly vertical shear. What the heck was that?!

I hope Tomas has no surprises in store. With some light shear, I think we should see SLOW strenghtening. Please Tomas, don't get into the Halloween spirit and freak us out like Julia. Please!
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Quoting jurakantaino:
Yes he does, Chaves was elected and reelected in a very democratic way, I wonder if you Americans can say the same about about the 2OOO thounsand Bush elections.


No politics please.
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Quoting Krycek1984:


Chavez lets people on the internet/?
Yes he does, Chaves was elected and reelected in a very democratic way, I wonder if you Americans can say the same about about the 2OOO thounsand Bush elections.
Quoting CaribBoy:br Hate TO,SAY this but, we have A WAY BETTER infraextructure...here in PR
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Winds are stronger on the southern side this pass, then the last 78mph at flight level last time, 93mph this time... thats a big jump
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1249. Grenada
Quoting NCHurricane2009:


What are the current conditions at your home right now? I believe you guys are north of St. Lucia and Barbados, which got the worst of Tomas, right?



No we are South of them just above T & T. Right now, calm almost still, no rain... yet.
Member Since: August 21, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 96
1248. flsky
Quoting KoritheMan:


Hey hey, I didn't mean anything by it. I apologize if that came off the wrong way. I'm just saying that the average person may not fully understand those words.

Forgive me.

Forgiven. Actually, I think bloggers using all they have intellectually, including adding some "big words," would be a refreshing change at times. Dumbing down, unfortunately, seems to be a trend, which I'd like to see reversed. With that sermon, I'm off to bed. Wishing and hoping (sorry, but I don't pray) "things" don't get completely catastrophic (weather-wise) tomorrow. Nite all. Please send your good "hoping to get some sleep tonight" vibes my way.
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Quoting NCHurricane2009:


Yep, that seems to be what's happening. The NHC has been mentioning that will happen for the last few advisories now. I hope this will prevent Tomas from much further strengthening. Any cap on Tomas's strength will be much appreciated, especially because this storm could become a problem for Haiti in the coming days.


Yeah. I hope so too. The models don't really show much intensification, so we'll see.
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Quoting sunlinepr:


If Thomas slows down, the trough from Conus will reach him farther East, and the expected NE turning will be closer to PR... Else if he accelerates he will go farther West turning NE closer to Jamaica....

totally agreed!!!
Member Since: July 30, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 288
Quoting KoritheMan:


I can't always detect sarcasm on the internet, but in hindsight, I can clearly see the insult.

Catch it or not, I would not have been offended. It takes a lot to offend me. Much more than that.

True, I would agree. Big words are not necessarily indicative of an intelligent person. I do not use said words in order to feign intelligence. It's just become a habit of mine really, after engaging in religious debates for several years over at another website.


hahaha, as long as its in good fun, i knew i could joke on you, and true anyone can have thesaurus.com open
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Quoting Grenada:



I suppose we can expect that too. Hope the flooding is not too bad, that will be our problem in St. George's and Grand Anse areas.


What are the current conditions at your home right now? I believe you guys are north of St. Lucia and Barbados, which got the worst of Tomas, right?
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.