Unprecedented Hurricane Tomas pounding the Lesser Antilles

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:38 PM GMT on October 30, 2010

Share this Blog
7
+

Hurricane Tomas, an unprecedented Lesser Antilles hurricane for so late in the season, is bearing down on the islands of St. Lucia and St. Vincent with Category 1 winds of 75 mph. Recent radar imagery from the Martinique radar shows that Tomas is still in the organizing stage, with an eyewall that just closed off, and a weak area of echoes on the south side, due to modest wind shear of 10 knots caused by southerly upper-level winds. The Hurricane Hunters reported top surface winds in the northern eyewall near 75 mph. St.Lucia figures to get the worst blow from Tomas, as this island will experience the strong right-front quadrant of the storm--the north eyewall. Winds on the island were sustained at 46 mph, gusting to 67 mph, at 11am EDT. Winds at Barbados peaked at 37 mph, gusting to 56 mph, early this morning, and the pressure bottomed out at 994 mb. Satellite loops of Tomas show a large and well-organized Cape Verdes-type hurricane, with good upper level outflow on all sides except the south, and an impressive amount of heavy thunderstorm activity. This is a very dangerous hurricane that is just beginning to get going. You can follow the progress of Tomas through the islands today with our wundermap zoomed in on St. Lucia.


Figure 1. Morning radar image from the Martinique radar shows the eye of Tomas moving between the islands of St, Lucia to the north and St. Vincent and the Grenadines to the south. The southern portion of the eyewall had just closed off with this image. Image credit: Meteo France.

Intensity forecast for Tomas
Now that the eyewall of Tomas has completely closed off, a period of steady and possibly rapid intensification lasting until Sunday afternoon is likely. The intensification rate may then be slowed by an increasing flow of southwesterly upper-level winds, which are expected to bring dry air and a moderate 15 - 20 knots of wind shear to Tomas Sunday through Tuesday, according to the latest SHIPS model forecast. Shear is then expected to relent, allowing more intensification on Wednesday. Water temperatures are a record warm 29.5°C and the Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential--a measure of the total heat content of the ocean--is a very high 100 kJ/cm^2, which is very favorable for rapid intensification. I expect the Tomas will strengthen to a Category 3 or 4 hurricane by Wednesday.


Figure 2. Hurricane specialists Robbie Berg (background) and Dan Brown (foreground) discuss the latest data on Tomas last night at the National Hurricane Center.

Track forecast for Tomas
The computer models have come into better agreement this morning that after Tomas reaches the central Caribbean 4 - 5 days from now, a turn to the north or northeast is likely, in response to a strong trough of low pressure expected to develop over the Eastern U.S. The exact timing of this turn to the north or northeast is difficult to predict at this time, as steering currents will be weak in the Caribbean after Tomas passes through the Lesser Antilles today and Sunday. At this time, is appears that the Dominican Republic and Haiti are most at risk from a strike by Tomas, though the storm could move as far west as Jamaica, or as far east as the northern Lesser Antilles Islands.


Figure 3. Hurricane specialist Dan Brown computes Tomas' radius of tropical storm force winds using the old-fashioned paper track plot and dividers technique. Hurricane specialists at NHC commonly use a paper track plot to mark all storm center fixes and compute the current motion of the storm. A storm's current heading and speed in NHC advisories is usually a 12-hour average of the motion up until the final fix position.

Tomas, Shary, and the 2010 hurricane season in perspective
Tomas' formation ties 2010 with 1995 and 1887 for 3rd place for most number of named storms in an Atlantic hurricane season. Only 2005 (28 named storms) and 1933 (21 named storms) were busier. Atlantic hurricane records go back to 1851, though there were likely many missed named storms prior to the beginning of satellite coverage in the mid-1960s. The intensification of Shary and Tomas into hurricanes today brings the total number of hurricanes this season to twelve, tying 2010 with 1969 and 1887 for second place for most hurricanes in a season. The record is held by 2005 with fifteen hurricanes, and I don't think we'll beat that record this year!

The formation of Tomas so far south and east this late in the season is unprecedented in the historical record; no named storm has ever been present east of the Lesser Antilles (61.5°W) and south of 12°N latitude so late in the year. Hurricane Six of 1896 came close--it was also a tropical storm south of 12°N and east of 61.5°W on October 29, but nine hours earlier in the day. That storm recurved to the north and missed the Lesser Antilles. Tomas' track through the southern Lesser Antilles so late in the year is unprecedented. There have been only two other tropical storms that formed after October 15 south of 12°N and east of 61.5°W: Hurricane Jose, which was a tropical storm in that region on October 18, 1999, and Tropical Storm Nicolas, on October 16, 2003. Tomas most reminds me of a storm I flew into with the Hurricane Hunters--Hurricane Joan of 1988, which was a tropical storm on October 14 near Tomas' current location, and later strengthened into a Category 4 hurricane that hit Nicaragua. According to Chenoweth (2008), Tomas is the first tropical storm to cross through the Lesser Antilles Islands south of 16°N this late in the year since 1724. In that year, a tropical storm on 12 November crossed the islands at 13.7°N 61.5°W, and later became a hurricane that affected Jamaica. There was also a hurricane on 30 October 1671 that crossed 61.5°W at 13.3°N, and did damage on Barbados.

Another unusual aspect of Tomas' formation is that we now have two simultaneous hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean on October 30. There has been only one hurricane season since 1851 that had had two simultaneous hurricanes later in the year--1932, when Hurricane Ten and Hurricane Eleven both existed November 7 - 10. Today is also the 5th latest date in the season that there have been two simultaneous named storms in the Atlantic. The record was set way back in 1887, when Hurricane Eighteen and Tropical Storm Nineteen were both active on December 8. There were three years that had simultaneous November named storms: 1932, 1961, and 2001.

References
Chenoweth, M. and D. Divine (2008), "A document-based 318-year record of tropical cyclones in the Lesser Antilles, 1690-2007", Geochemistry, Geophysics, Geosystems, 9, doi:10.1029/2008GC002066.

Next update
I'll have more on Sunday by 3pm EDT. I'm headed home to Michigan today, after a very valuable week here at the National Hurricane Center. The experience gave me a new appreciatation for just how good the forecasters are at what they do. NHC's hurricane experts are truly world-class, and we are very fortunate to have such a talented group of hard-working forecasters keeping us informed on the dangers we face from Atlantic hurricanes.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 1743 - 1693

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35Blog Index

1743. kimoskee
11:25 PM GMT on October 31, 2010
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
I really think Jamaica needs to begin some serious preparations.


PM meeting with disaster committees tomorrow
Member Since: August 17, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 672
1742. sunlinepr
11:02 PM GMT on October 31, 2010
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9656
1741. Seastep
6:44 PM GMT on October 31, 2010
Quoting Tazmanian:
it may be even weaker then that they are olny finding SFMR winds at 40kt or about 45mph


That is well away from the center. Tomas has a large wind field.

Just something I noted. 2 minutes after the vortex message, they found 990mb and 64kts.

Awaiting the next pass.
Member Since: September 9, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 3412
1740. Tazmanian
6:42 PM GMT on October 31, 2010
i give up
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114071
1739. docrod
6:42 PM GMT on October 31, 2010
New blog folks
Member Since: April 21, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 767
1738. Tazmanian
6:42 PM GMT on October 31, 2010
on this day in 1991

Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114071
1737. wunderkidcayman
6:40 PM GMT on October 31, 2010
hey guys I say that Tomas will not make that turn North between Jamaica and Haiti it will be further West before that happen likely to be located SW of Jamaica be for it does
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 9595
1736. Tazmanian
6:39 PM GMT on October 31, 2010
on this day in 1991









Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114071
1735. IKE
6:36 PM GMT on October 31, 2010
Quoting plywoodstatenative:
Ike in that run I am seeing a low forming off of NY almost like a Perfect storm set up off of NY and what should be Tomas just about due north of Haiti, am I correct in what I am seeing?


I see what's left of Tomas north of Haiti.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
1734. weatherwatcher12
6:35 PM GMT on October 31, 2010
Quoting weatherlover94:
i think Tomas 75mph at 5 pm

I'd prefer to see some more vortex passes, a little too early to call the adv.
Member Since: May 16, 2009 Posts: 1 Comments: 1231
1733. Tazmanian
6:33 PM GMT on October 31, 2010
it may be even weaker then that they are olny finding SFMR winds at 40kt or about 45mph
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114071
1732. plywoodstatenative
6:33 PM GMT on October 31, 2010
Ike in that run I am seeing a low forming off of NY almost like a Perfect storm set up off of NY and what should be Tomas just about due north of Haiti, am I correct in what I am seeing?
Member Since: November 15, 2005 Posts: 16 Comments: 4189
1731. thegoldenstrand
6:31 PM GMT on October 31, 2010
Hoping we see some weaker numbers for Tomas on next update at 2 pm EST... could Tomas weaken to minimal hurricane or even tropical storm any time soon? I am hoping he does.
Member Since: August 16, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 102
1730. thegoldenstrand
6:25 PM GMT on October 31, 2010
1594. Fla727 stated
"Looks like a Ha(i)ti landfall and a fish after that".

It appears you see this turning into a real tragedy for Haiti and then moving out to sea.

Still not certain where this will end up, but the weaker it is right now the further west the storm should go imo, possibly sparing Haiti all together, so why not pray the storm weakens... gets sheared apart, and that the storm dies, not people?

Member Since: August 16, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 102
1729. afj3
6:25 PM GMT on October 31, 2010
Quoting BahaHurican:
True. But u have to recognise WHEN ur chain is being yanked.... lol

BTW, which part of FL are u in? With the way things are shaping up, FL looks like it's missed the bullet, but I'm paranoid enough to imagine a scenario where Tomas shoots the gap between Haiti and Cuba, regains strength over the Eastern/Central Bahamas, then shoots off to the NW, making a direct hit over New Providence, Grand Bahama, and Port St. Lucie.... not a laughing matter, but definitely a potential nightmare for some of us.....

Hey!
I am in Coral Gables, Florida, just south of Miami. Where are you???
Member Since: June 10, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 346
1728. Tazmanian
6:25 PM GMT on October 31, 2010
Quoting IKE:


I see Toe-maz near Jamaica. That's all I see.



ok
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114071
1727. IKE
6:23 PM GMT on October 31, 2010
What an eastern USA trough at 120 hours...

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
1726. IKE
6:22 PM GMT on October 31, 2010
Quoting Tazmanian:



hard too tell is it showing the V and W storm on there?


I see Toe-maz near Jamaica. That's all I see.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
1725. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
6:21 PM GMT on October 31, 2010
expect convective reformation south and west of current and previous locations as system gathers itself together
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 165 Comments: 52340
1724. Tazmanian
6:19 PM GMT on October 31, 2010
Quoting IKE:
12Z ECMWF @ 96 hours...




hard too tell is it showing the V and W storm on there?
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114071
1723. TerraNova
6:19 PM GMT on October 31, 2010
Quoting reedzone:
Tomas should still be a Hurricane by 5 p.m. It's just a bit disorganized due to some southwesterly wind shear of 20 knots, sure could rip an invest, but not a Hurricane. Tomas is still expected to be a dangerous storm and folks from Puerto Rico to Western Cuba, especially the Dominican Republic/Haiti should watch this storm closely. Still expected to become a Major Hurricane in 4-5 days despite the SLIGHT weakening as the NHC noted.


At this point, especially regarding the collapsed eyewall, tilted core, and partially exposed western circulation I wouldn't be surprised to see Tomas make it down as far as 70 mph before SHIPS forecasts shear to lessen up.

Here's a good image of the impact horizontal tilt and wind shear is having on Tomas. Note a more elongated circulation on the southern side and less a flow between the wind barbs.

Member Since: July 30, 2007 Posts: 76 Comments: 4062
1722. weatherlover94
6:19 PM GMT on October 31, 2010
i think Tomas 75mph at 5 pm
Member Since: September 8, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1820
1721. IKE
6:18 PM GMT on October 31, 2010
12Z ECMWF @ 96 hours...

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
1720. stormwatcherCI
6:17 PM GMT on October 31, 2010
Quoting reedzone:
Tomas should still be a Hurricane by 5 p.m. It's just a bit disorganized due to some southwesterly wind shear of 20 knots, sure could rip an invest, but not a Hurricane. Tomas is still expected to be a dangerous storm and folks from Puerto Rico to Western Cuba, especially the Dominican Republic/Haiti should watch this storm closely. Still expected to become a Major Hurricane in 4-5 days despite the SLIGHT weakening as the NHC noted.
Everyone said he strengthened faster than forecast and he was also forecast to weaken before re-intensifying so I would not RIP him just yet. All this means to me is more likely further west in the short term.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8242
1719. uncljbnd
6:17 PM GMT on October 31, 2010
I think the center is north of the tropical points...Track may have to go right with the next advisory.
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 67
1718. largeeyes
6:13 PM GMT on October 31, 2010
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
St. Lucia is more than ready to handle a situation like this, I doubt they will request help, they are a independent nation, im sure they will pride themselves on taking care of its own citizens. No reason for us to try and force aid, its demeaning to other countries.
I can see them requesting some help with heavy machinery to quickly repair some of the infrastructure that was damaged, such as the many bridges, but I tend to agree. They may need some help quickly procurring materials for rebuilding, but beyond that I think everyone will be pleasantly surprised how quickly they recover.
Member Since: August 22, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1449
1717. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
6:13 PM GMT on October 31, 2010
21L/TS/T/Cx
MARK
14.13n/64.12w


weakening flag on
rapid disp. flagged
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 165 Comments: 52340
1716. scott39
6:12 PM GMT on October 31, 2010
Quoting largeeyes:
If you want to help St. Lucia, as soon as they recover, GO VISIT! The country depends on tourism these days and it's an amazing place.
I wish!
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6706
1715. roleli
6:10 PM GMT on October 31, 2010
Looks like Tomas is back to a Tropical Storm.. GFS on target?
Member Since: September 12, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 61
1714. weatherwatcher12
6:08 PM GMT on October 31, 2010
It will be interesting to see the next vortex message as that could help us determine its direction.
Member Since: May 16, 2009 Posts: 1 Comments: 1231
1713. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
6:08 PM GMT on October 31, 2010
580

URNT12 KNHC 311758

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL212010

A. 31/17:29:30Z

B. 14 deg 13 min N

064 deg 15 min W

C. 700 mb 3059 m

D. 64 kt

E. 291 deg 7 nm

F. 047 deg 48 kt

G. 323 deg 20 nm

H. 994 mb

I. 10 C / 3050 m

J. 16 C / 3043 m

K. 9 C / NA

L. OPEN SE - SW

M. C30

N. 12345 / 07

O. 0.02 / 1 nm

P. AF309 0421A TOMAS OB 05

MAX FL WIND 48 KT NW QUAD 17:22:50Z

SFC CNTR BEARING 280 AT 04 NM FROM FL CNTR

;


Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 165 Comments: 52340
1712. reedzone
6:07 PM GMT on October 31, 2010
Tomas should still be a Hurricane by 5 p.m. It's just a bit disorganized due to some southwesterly wind shear of 20 knots, sure could rip an invest, but not a Hurricane. Tomas is still expected to be a dangerous storm and folks from Puerto Rico to Western Cuba, especially the Dominican Republic/Haiti should watch this storm closely. Still expected to become a Major Hurricane in 4-5 days despite the SLIGHT weakening as the NHC noted.
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7334
1711. weatherwatcher12
6:06 PM GMT on October 31, 2010
Quoting IKE:
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 31st day of the month at 17:58Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 309)
Storm Number & Year: 21L in 2010
Storm Name: Tomas (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 4
Observation Number: 05
A. Time of Center Fix: 31st day of the month at 17:29:30Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 14°13'N 64°15'W (14.2167N 64.25W)
B. Center Fix Location: 314 miles (505 km) to the SSE (158°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 3,059m (10,036ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 64kts (~ 73.6mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 7 nautical miles (8 statute miles) to the WNW (291°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 47° at 48kts (From the NE at ~ 55.2mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 20 nautical miles (23 statute miles) to the NW (323°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 994mb (29.35 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 10°C (50°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,050m (10,007ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 16°C (61°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,043m (9,984ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 9°C (48°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Open from the southeast to the southwest
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 30 nautical miles (35 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 700mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 48kts (~ 55.2mph) in the northwest quadrant at 17:22:50Z
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
SFC CNTR BEARING 280 AT 04 NM FROM FL CNTR

still a hurricane
Member Since: May 16, 2009 Posts: 1 Comments: 1231
1709. largeeyes
6:06 PM GMT on October 31, 2010
If you want to help St. Lucia, as soon as they recover, GO VISIT! The country depends on tourism these days and it's an amazing place.
Member Since: August 22, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1449
1708. IKE
6:05 PM GMT on October 31, 2010
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 31st day of the month at 17:58Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 309)
Storm Number & Year: 21L in 2010
Storm Name: Tomas (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 4
Observation Number: 05
A. Time of Center Fix: 31st day of the month at 17:29:30Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 14°13'N 64°15'W (14.2167N 64.25W)
B. Center Fix Location: 314 miles (505 km) to the SSE (158°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 3,059m (10,036ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 64kts (~ 73.6mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 7 nautical miles (8 statute miles) to the WNW (291°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 47° at 48kts (From the NE at ~ 55.2mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 20 nautical miles (23 statute miles) to the NW (323°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 994mb (29.35 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 10°C (50°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,050m (10,007ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 16°C (61°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,043m (9,984ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 9°C (48°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Open from the southeast to the southwest
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 30 nautical miles (35 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 700mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 48kts (~ 55.2mph) in the northwest quadrant at 17:22:50Z
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
SFC CNTR BEARING 280 AT 04 NM FROM FL CNTR
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
1706. scott39
5:54 PM GMT on October 31, 2010
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


We as a country have forced "aid" plenty of times...
Well now that you have put the " " up around aid, that could mean anything. Im referring to Medical, food water and shelter help. As far as I know, a country has to give us permission for us to help.
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6706
1705. weatherwatcher12
5:51 PM GMT on October 31, 2010
Dropsone dropped in eye pressure 994mb
Member Since: May 16, 2009 Posts: 1 Comments: 1231
1704. SLU
5:48 PM GMT on October 31, 2010
Thanks for all the kind words
Member Since: July 13, 2006 Posts: 12 Comments: 4734
1703. IKE
5:45 PM GMT on October 31, 2010
14.2N and 64.2W....990.5 mb
(~ 29.25 inHg)
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
1702. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
5:43 PM GMT on October 31, 2010
Quoting Tazmanian:
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
323 PM AKDT SAT OCT 30 2010


EXPLOSIVE CYCLOGENESIS WITH LOW 300 NM S OF PACD IS SENDING A
STRONG TRIPLE PT TO THE ENE THAT IS CURRENTLY 600 NM S OF PAWD.
ECMWF MODEL HAS A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 937 MB FOR 00Z FOR THE
BOMB.

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 165 Comments: 52340
1701. stillwaiting
5:43 PM GMT on October 31, 2010
said it yesterday,i'll say it again today,in some form or another tommy's going into CA ....
Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970
1700. VAbeachhurricanes
5:42 PM GMT on October 31, 2010
Quoting scott39:
We dont force aid, and if the request it, we will be there.


We as a country have forced "aid" plenty of times...
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5698
1699. stormwatcherCI
5:39 PM GMT on October 31, 2010
URNT15 KNHC 311734
AF309 0421A TOMAS HDOB 07 20101031
172430 1424N 06425W 6981 03102 0010 +096 +065 073035 039 056 006 03
172500 1423N 06424W 6971 03111 9986 +113 +060 067035 038 060 004 00
172530 1421N 06424W 6967 03112 9965 +128 +058 069030 033 061 003 00
172600 1419N 06423W 6977 03106 9958 +135 +059 076021 027 062 003 00
172630 1418N 06423W 6968 03110 9952 +137 +063 072015 019 063 004 00
172700 1416N 06422W 6971 03106 9956 +133 +070 044016 020 064 001 00
172730 1414N 06421W 6972 03105 9951 +133 +076 006016 018 061 002 03
172800 1413N 06420W 6985 03082 9936 +142 +081 338016 017 052 001 03
172830 1412N 06418W 6977 03095 9926 +148 +086 336012 015 033 002 03
172900 1413N 06416W 6967 03099 9916 +155 +090 003009 013 033 000 03
172930 1413N 06414W 6968 03096 9905 +160 +094 233000 005 038 000 00
173000 1413N 06414W 6968 03096 9921 +149 +099 178010 012 044 001 03
173030 1412N 06411W 6960 03107 9923 +144 +103 184012 015 053 000 03
173100 1411N 06410W 6978 03088 9922 +145 +105 182018 020 053 000 03
173130 1410N 06408W 6969 03098 9933 +136 +107 177021 022 053 000 03
173200 1409N 06407W 6967 03096 9940 +131 +107 178021 022 054 000 03
173230 1408N 06406W 6974 03092 9948 +125 +106 193021 022 056 001 00
173300 1407N 06405W 6971 03095 9949 +124 +105 218024 025 057 000 03
173330 1405N 06403W 6972 03095 9957 +118 +103 226031 038 059 000 03
173400 1404N 06402W 6972 03101 9989 +098 //// 234044 045 059 000 01
$$
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8242
1697. weatherwatcher12
5:39 PM GMT on October 31, 2010
Now a reading of 64 knots surface.
Member Since: May 16, 2009 Posts: 1 Comments: 1231
1696. Xandtar
5:39 PM GMT on October 31, 2010
Quoting Bordonaro:

Are you OK?? Have you heard any reports from any of the other islands??


I'm fine, the roads are okay, and if the emphasis on power restoration is in the capital where independence celebrations are going on I think, that's okay. We have a generator system at my work thus I am online.

But I haven't heard anything from the more Windward Islands, sorry.
Member Since: July 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 29
1695. Tazmanian
5:38 PM GMT on October 31, 2010
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
323 PM AKDT SAT OCT 30 2010


EXPLOSIVE CYCLOGENESIS WITH LOW 300 NM S OF PACD IS SENDING A
STRONG TRIPLE PT TO THE ENE THAT IS CURRENTLY 600 NM S OF PAWD.
ECMWF MODEL HAS A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 937 MB FOR 00Z FOR THE
BOMB.

Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114071
1694. Tazmanian
5:36 PM GMT on October 31, 2010
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKDT SAT OCT 30 2010


.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...A STRONG JET STREAM THAT IS PUSHING 200
KT AT 250 MB RUNS SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS AND AROUND TO THE SOUTH OF
THE RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING LOW SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA. THIS JET
IS FEEDING THIS LOW WHICH WILL BOTTOM OUT NEAR 940 MB. IT MIGHT EVEN
DROP INTO THE UPPER 930S MB WHICH DOES NOT HAPPEN VERY OFTEN.
WHILE THE SURFACE LOW WILL REACHED ITS LOWEST PRESSURE OVERNIGHT IT
WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AND REMAIN VERY LARGE AS IT MOVES INTO THE GULF
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114071
1693. scott39
5:34 PM GMT on October 31, 2010
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
St. Lucia is more than ready to handle a situation like this, I doubt they will request help, they are a independent nation, im sure they will pride themselves on taking care of its own citizens. No reason for us to try and force aid, its demeaning to other countries.
We dont force aid, and if the request it, we will be there.
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6706

Viewing: 1743 - 1693

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.