Unprecedented Hurricane Tomas pounding the Lesser Antilles
Hurricane Tomas, an unprecedented Lesser Antilles hurricane for so late in the season, is bearing down on the islands of St. Lucia and St. Vincent with Category 1 winds of 75 mph. Recent radar imagery from the Martinique radar shows that Tomas is still in the organizing stage, with an eyewall that just closed off, and a weak area of echoes on the south side, due to modest wind shear of 10 knots caused by southerly upper-level winds. The Hurricane Hunters reported top surface winds in the northern eyewall near 75 mph. St.Lucia figures to get the worst blow from Tomas, as this island will experience the strong right-front quadrant of the storm--the north eyewall. Winds on the island were sustained at 46 mph, gusting to 67 mph, at 11am EDT. Winds at Barbados peaked at 37 mph, gusting to 56 mph, early this morning, and the pressure bottomed out at 994 mb. Satellite loops of Tomas show a large and well-organized Cape Verdes-type hurricane, with good upper level outflow on all sides except the south, and an impressive amount of heavy thunderstorm activity. This is a very dangerous hurricane that is just beginning to get going. You can follow the progress of Tomas through the islands today with our wundermap zoomed in on St. Lucia.
Figure 1. Morning radar image from the Martinique radar shows the eye of Tomas moving between the islands of St, Lucia to the north and St. Vincent and the Grenadines to the south. The southern portion of the eyewall had just closed off with this image. Image credit: Meteo France.
Intensity forecast for Tomas
Now that the eyewall of Tomas has completely closed off, a period of steady and possibly rapid intensification lasting until Sunday afternoon is likely. The intensification rate may then be slowed by an increasing flow of southwesterly upper-level winds, which are expected to bring dry air and a moderate 15 - 20 knots of wind shear to Tomas Sunday through Tuesday, according to the latest SHIPS model forecast. Shear is then expected to relent, allowing more intensification on Wednesday. Water temperatures are a record warm 29.5°C and the Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential--a measure of the total heat content of the ocean--is a very high 100 kJ/cm^2, which is very favorable for rapid intensification. I expect the Tomas will strengthen to a Category 3 or 4 hurricane by Wednesday.
Figure 2. Hurricane specialists Robbie Berg (background) and Dan Brown (foreground) discuss the latest data on Tomas last night at the National Hurricane Center.
Track forecast for Tomas
The computer models have come into better agreement this morning that after Tomas reaches the central Caribbean 4 - 5 days from now, a turn to the north or northeast is likely, in response to a strong trough of low pressure expected to develop over the Eastern U.S. The exact timing of this turn to the north or northeast is difficult to predict at this time, as steering currents will be weak in the Caribbean after Tomas passes through the Lesser Antilles today and Sunday. At this time, is appears that the Dominican Republic and Haiti are most at risk from a strike by Tomas, though the storm could move as far west as Jamaica, or as far east as the northern Lesser Antilles Islands.
Figure 3. Hurricane specialist Dan Brown computes Tomas' radius of tropical storm force winds using the old-fashioned paper track plot and dividers technique. Hurricane specialists at NHC commonly use a paper track plot to mark all storm center fixes and compute the current motion of the storm. A storm's current heading and speed in NHC advisories is usually a 12-hour average of the motion up until the final fix position.
Tomas, Shary, and the 2010 hurricane season in perspective
Tomas' formation ties 2010 with 1995 and 1887 for 3rd place for most number of named storms in an Atlantic hurricane season. Only 2005 (28 named storms) and 1933 (21 named storms) were busier. Atlantic hurricane records go back to 1851, though there were likely many missed named storms prior to the beginning of satellite coverage in the mid-1960s. The intensification of Shary and Tomas into hurricanes today brings the total number of hurricanes this season to twelve, tying 2010 with 1969 and 1887 for second place for most hurricanes in a season. The record is held by 2005 with fifteen hurricanes, and I don't think we'll beat that record this year!
The formation of Tomas so far south and east this late in the season is unprecedented in the historical record; no named storm has ever been present east of the Lesser Antilles (61.5°W) and south of 12°N latitude so late in the year. Hurricane Six of 1896 came close--it was also a tropical storm south of 12°N and east of 61.5°W on October 29, but nine hours earlier in the day. That storm recurved to the north and missed the Lesser Antilles. Tomas' track through the southern Lesser Antilles so late in the year is unprecedented. There have been only two other tropical storms that formed after October 15 south of 12°N and east of 61.5°W: Hurricane Jose, which was a tropical storm in that region on October 18, 1999, and Tropical Storm Nicolas, on October 16, 2003. Tomas most reminds me of a storm I flew into with the Hurricane Hunters--Hurricane Joan of 1988, which was a tropical storm on October 14 near Tomas' current location, and later strengthened into a Category 4 hurricane that hit Nicaragua. According to Chenoweth (2008), Tomas is the first tropical storm to cross through the Lesser Antilles Islands south of 16°N this late in the year since 1724. In that year, a tropical storm on 12 November crossed the islands at 13.7°N 61.5°W, and later became a hurricane that affected Jamaica. There was also a hurricane on 30 October 1671 that crossed 61.5°W at 13.3°N, and did damage on Barbados.
Another unusual aspect of Tomas' formation is that we now have two simultaneous hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean on October 30. There has been only one hurricane season since 1851 that had had two simultaneous hurricanes later in the year--1932, when Hurricane Ten and Hurricane Eleven both existed November 7 - 10. Today is also the 5th latest date in the season that there have been two simultaneous named storms in the Atlantic. The record was set way back in 1887, when Hurricane Eighteen and Tropical Storm Nineteen were both active on December 8. There were three years that had simultaneous November named storms: 1932, 1961, and 2001.
References
Chenoweth, M. and D. Divine (2008), "A document-based 318-year record of tropical cyclones in the Lesser Antilles, 1690-2007", Geochemistry, Geophysics, Geosystems, 9, doi:10.1029/2008GC002066.
Next update
I'll have more on Sunday by 3pm EDT. I'm headed home to Michigan today, after a very valuable week here at the National Hurricane Center. The experience gave me a new appreciatation for just how good the forecasters are at what they do. NHC's hurricane experts are truly world-class, and we are very fortunate to have such a talented group of hard-working forecasters keeping us informed on the dangers we face from Atlantic hurricanes.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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(~ 29.25 inHg)
Transmitted: 31st day of the month at 17:58Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 309)
Storm Number & Year: 21L in 2010
Storm Name: Tomas (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 4
Observation Number: 05
A. Time of Center Fix: 31st day of the month at 17:29:30Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 14°13'N 64°15'W (14.2167N 64.25W)
B. Center Fix Location: 314 miles (505 km) to the SSE (158°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 3,059m (10,036ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 64kts (~ 73.6mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 7 nautical miles (8 statute miles) to the WNW (291°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 47° at 48kts (From the NE at ~ 55.2mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 20 nautical miles (23 statute miles) to the NW (323°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 994mb (29.35 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 10°C (50°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,050m (10,007ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 16°C (61°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,043m (9,984ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 9°C (48°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Open from the southeast to the southwest
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 30 nautical miles (35 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 700mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 48kts (~ 55.2mph) in the northwest quadrant at 17:22:50Z
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
SFC CNTR BEARING 280 AT 04 NM FROM FL CNTR
Why does the TWO state he is still an 80KT Hurricane?
still a hurricane
URNT12 KNHC 311758
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL212010
A. 31/17:29:30Z
B. 14 deg 13 min N
064 deg 15 min W
C. 700 mb 3059 m
D. 64 kt
E. 291 deg 7 nm
F. 047 deg 48 kt
G. 323 deg 20 nm
H. 994 mb
I. 10 C / 3050 m
J. 16 C / 3043 m
K. 9 C / NA
L. OPEN SE - SW
M. C30
N. 12345 / 07
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF309 0421A TOMAS OB 05
MAX FL WIND 48 KT NW QUAD 17:22:50Z
SFC CNTR BEARING 280 AT 04 NM FROM FL CNTR
;
MARK
14.13n/64.12w
weakening flag on
rapid disp. flagged
At this point, especially regarding the collapsed eyewall, tilted core, and partially exposed western circulation I wouldn't be surprised to see Tomas make it down as far as 70 mph before SHIPS forecasts shear to lessen up.
Here's a good image of the impact horizontal tilt and wind shear is having on Tomas. Note a more elongated circulation on the southern side and less a flow between the wind barbs.
hard too tell is it showing the V and W storm on there?
I see Toe-maz near Jamaica. That's all I see.
ok
Hey!
I am in Coral Gables, Florida, just south of Miami. Where are you???
"Looks like a Ha(i)ti landfall and a fish after that".
It appears you see this turning into a real tragedy for Haiti and then moving out to sea.
Still not certain where this will end up, but the weaker it is right now the further west the storm should go imo, possibly sparing Haiti all together, so why not pray the storm weakens... gets sheared apart, and that the storm dies, not people?
I'd prefer to see some more vortex passes, a little too early to call the adv.
I see what's left of Tomas north of Haiti.
That is well away from the center. Tomas has a large wind field.
Just something I noted. 2 minutes after the vortex message, they found 990mb and 64kts.
Awaiting the next pass.
PM meeting with disaster committees tomorrow
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