An evening shift at NHC: A Shary situation

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:57 PM GMT on October 28, 2010

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We have a rare late October triple threat in the Atlantic this morning, three "Invests" with a decent chance of developing. The most serious threat is Invest 91L, a tropical wave centered near 7N 49W, about 950 miles east-southeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands. 91L is moving west to west-northwest at 15 - 20 mph, and will spread heavy rains and gusty winds to the northern coast of South America and the southern Lesser Antilles Islands beginning on Friday night. The system is under low wind shear less than 10 knots, but is too close to the Equator to spin up very rapidly. The storm will also have difficultly developing due to land interaction with South America this weekend. However, several models are indicating the possibility that 91L could develop into a tropical depression in the Central Caribbean by the middle of next week. NHC is giving 90L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone by Saturday.

A low pressure system (Invest 90L) centered near 27N 42W in the middle Atlantic Ocean has developed a broad and elongated circulation. Heavy thunderstorms on its east side are generating tropical storm-force winds. However, the circulation of 90L has become increasingly stretched out this morning, and the storm is not as well organized as it was last night. NHC is giving 90L a 50% chance of developing into a tropical storm by Saturday.

Finally, a low pressure system (Invest 92L) centered 700 miles south-southeast of Bermuda is developing a surface circulation, and appears very close to tropical depression status. NHC is giving 92L a 60% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone by Saturday. The only land area that might be affected by 92L is Bermuda.


Figure 1. A rare late-October triple threat in the Atlantic: three areas of disturbed weather listed by NHC as areas of interest (Invests) worth running forecast models on. Image credit: National Hurricane Center.

A quiet Tuesday evening shift at NHC
Tuesday evening was a quiet shift at the National Hurricane Center, where I've spent the week as a participant in their visiting scientist program. Each week during hurricane season, NHC invites a hurricane researcher or forecaster in academia, government, or private industry to spend a week shadowing the NHC forecasters as they prepare their forecast products. The evening shift is chosen, since it is less of a zoo, and the presence of the visiting scientist will present less of a distraction to the forecasters.

There was only one area of interest (Invest 90L) on Tuesday. 90L was a disorganized low pressure system in the middle Atlantic that had gotten tangled up with an upper-level low pressure system that was bringing dry air and disruptive wind shear. I worked with senior hurricane specialist Dan Brown, who cheerfully analyzed 90L with me, but confided that this storm was barely worth keeping as an Invest. He lowered its chances of development to 10%, but did order one more run of the various forecast models, so I could see how that was done. He also pointed out two other systems he thought might turn into "Invests" worth watching later in the week, and noted in particular that the large tropical wave approaching South America was unusually vigorous for this time of year, and might be something to be concerned about if it managed to avoid South America and penetrate into the southern Caribbean.

Since there wasn't much else to see on the hurricane end of their operation, I spent the rest of the evening working with NHC's marine forecasting branch. The National Hurricane Center is responsible for preparing weather analysis charts and marine forecasts for the tropical Atlantic and Eastern Pacific, and I worked with meteorologist Felix Garcia of NHC's Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch (TAFB). He prepared the 8pm Tropical Weather Discussion, and the 00Z tropical analysis chart. I'm highly envious of the software tools NHC has to prepare forecasts and make analysis charts! I want an NAWIPS and ATCF workstation like these guys have, which allows one to zoom, pan, overlay, and quickly change speeds of animations. I'm proud to say that I am responsible for a portion of the 1016 mb isobar on the 00Z tropical Atlantic surface analysis map for Tuesday night, which I drew using the fantastic map drawing software at NHC.

Wednesday evening: A Shary situation
Wednesday evening was a bit more interesting. Invest 90L had been joined by Invest 91L and Invest 92L, and odds for development of 90L had been bumped up to 30%. I spent the first portion of the shift working with TAFB forecaster Wally Barnes, who made the intensity and position estimates of the three invests based on infrared satellite imagery. This task is accomplished using the Dvorak technique, a system of classifying cloud patterns of tropical cyclones based on how cold the cloud tops are, how much spiral banding is present, and other factors. Wally let me determine where the center of 90L was at 00Z last night, and enter the fix into the official database. I am now forever responsible for a tiny piece of the 2010 Atlantic hurricane data base--an awesome responsibility! (It's my first addition to the cause since I sent in my final Hurricane Hunter VORTEX report from the eye of Hurricane Hugo on September 15, 1989, complaining about hitting 5.7 G's of acceleration.) We classified 90L as a T2.0, which is respectable, and meant the system might be on its way to status as Tropical Storm Shary. Wally had to do the analysis for the large, ill-defined tropical wave (Invest 91L), since his eye was much more highly trained to pick out subtle motions in the satellite animations that indicated where the most likely center of circulation might be trying to develop.


Figure 2. "My boat is right here!" Forecaster Wally Barnes of NHC's Tropical Analysis and Forecasting Branch (TAFB) shows where he suspects the center of rotation of Invest 91L might be at 00Z on October 28, 2010.

Wally and I printed out the fix information we'd come up with for 90L, and took it over to Dan Brown, who was working the evening shift again over at the hurricane side of NHC.

"What, you're giving this a T2.0?" Dan good-naturedly hassled us, as we presented the fix info. "You're just trying to get something going for Jeff here so he can see some advisories get issued." Wally defended our analysis, pointing out how the heavy thunderstorms of 90L were pushing closer to the center of circulation, and how the cloud tops had gotten much colder. Dan agreed that 90L really was worthy of more attention, and commented that there was a good chance one of our three invests would probably develop into something NHC would have to issue advisories on before my final shift at NHC ended on Friday night. His prediction was that it would be 92L, the system a few hundred miles north of Puerto Rico.

An hour later, Dan wasn't so sure that 90L wouldn't beat 92L to the title of Tropical Storm Shary. The European ASCAT satellite had just sent in an image of the surface winds over 90L, and ASCAT was showing that the storm had a closed circulation and a respectable area of 40 mph tropical storm-force winds. He gave a call to James Franklin, the head of the hurricane specialist unit at NHC, who was at home. I listened in.

"Hey, I just got ASCAT," said Dan. "It's 35 knots. You can see the center, and the convection is about 130 miles to the northeast. I'm thinking of starting it as a tropical storm, but I hate to start it now, since the convection started at 21Z, and I'd like to see it persist. The ASCAT pass shows the circulation is a bit elongated, and the most recent microwave images are also showing that."

After discussing whether or not to initiate advisories on Tropical Storm Shary for a few more minutes, Dan hung up, then told me the scoop. "This is one of the most difficult parts of the job. It's a real judgment call whether or not to name a storm, when it's such a borderline situation like this. What we're going to do is issue a Special Tropical Weather Outlook mentioning that 90L has gale-force winds, bump the probability of development up to 50 or 60%, watch it for a few more hours, then re-assess." Dan then proceeded to call his replacement, Eric Blake, who was due to work the night shift, to tell him to come in as planned, since it looked like there could well be a Tropical Storm Shary to deal with. Dan then proceeded to write the Special Tropical Weather Outlook and send it out.


Figure 3. "The one that got away was this big!" Wally Barnes tells hurricane specialist Dan Brown what he thinks of 90L's recent burst of heavy thunderstorm activity.

Next update
I'll have an update on Thursday morning from the National Hurricane Center on the latest from the tropics.

Jeff Masters

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1083. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)


1. A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 360 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE
SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS HAS BECOME MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED THIS
MORNING...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION OR A TROPICAL STORM TO FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF THIS DISTURBANCE BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG
GUSTY WINDS TO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
VENEZUELA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE DISTURBANCE
THIS AFTERNOON.


2. SUSPECT AREA (APPROACHING WINDWARD ISLANDS)

FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 71

A. 29/1800Z

B. AFXXX 01KKA INVEST

C. 29/1530Z

D. 09.5N 57.0W

E. 29/1730Z TO 29/2200Z

F. SFC TO 10,000 FT



3. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: BEGIN 6-HRLY FIXES ON SYSTEM

NEAR THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AT 30/1200Z NEAR 11N 62W.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 176 Comments: 55513
Quoting IKE:
Poor NHC gets hammered on here...on the "vent" blog.

Ike we had major damage from what became otto..a boat that had just gotten pulled off the beach from earl ended up back on the beach. They need to give more warning on these almost but not quite yet because the circulation is not defined enough to classify but you get 45 knots sustained for 10 minutes every half hour with higher gusts storms
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Quoting sailingallover:

The mets in San juan PR are constantly having to hint at things POSSIBLY being bad since the they cannot jump the NHC..
This cause problem in situation like this where there is probably going be a TS or hurricane to our south in 48 hours


Unfortunately the NHC will name 91L at 5 p.m. today, you people down there need to start preparations. It could be at like 50 mph. when they name it lol.
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Quoting DDR:
Morning all
Very quiet in Trinidad right now
Noting much on radar...Link

what is your local met office saying about 91L
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
The Mets in most of the islands get their info from the NHC therefore will not issue any kind of warnings or watches unless NHC has classified it.

The mets in San juan PR are constantly having to hint at things POSSIBLY being bad since the they cannot jump the NHC..
This cause problem in situation like this where there is probably going be a TS or hurricane to our south in 48 hours
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1078. IKE
Poor NHC gets hammered on here...on the "vent" blog.
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91L /PRE-Tomas is now up to 80%
TS TOMAS at 11am
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ABNT20 KNHC 291144
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI OCT 29 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM SHARY...LOCATED ABOUT 220 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA.

A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 360 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE
SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS HAS BECOME MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED THIS
MORNING...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION OR A TROPICAL STORM TO FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF THIS DISTURBANCE BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG
GUSTY WINDS TO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
VENEZUELA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE DISTURBANCE
THIS AFTERNOON.

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 1300 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST
OF THE NORTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING CLOUDINESS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT...AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT
MOVES WESTWARD NEAR 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON SHARY ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT35 KNHC
AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT5. FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON SHARY ARE
ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT25 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER
MIATCMAT5.
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1075. IKE
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI OCT 29 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM SHARY...LOCATED ABOUT 220 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA.

A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 360 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE
SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS HAS BECOME MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED THIS
MORNING...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION OR A TROPICAL STORM TO FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF THIS DISTURBANCE BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG
GUSTY WINDS TO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
VENEZUELA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE DISTURBANCE
THIS AFTERNOON.

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 1300 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST
OF THE NORTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING CLOUDINESS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT...AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT
MOVES WESTWARD NEAR 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON SHARY ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT35 KNHC
AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT5. FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON SHARY ARE
ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT25 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER
MIATCMAT5.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART/CANGIALOSI
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1074. DDR
Morning all
Very quiet in Trinidad right now
Noting much on radar...Link
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1073. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting reedzone:
NHC should do the smart thing and classifying 91L a TD, send some warnings out for the Islands. Of course when recon goes out in it later today, they should find Thomas. People need to be notified on what is coming their way. 91L is obviously no longer a Invest, appears to be a strong TD on the verge of TS status. Wake up NHC!
chill out reed everything in due process it will be 21L soon enough
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 176 Comments: 55513
Quoting HaboobsRsweet:
and the mets are not doing their job if they are not saying a possible tropical system is expecting to land here in 2-3 days etc...
Cayman Islands got that information about 12 hours before Ivan hit. Previous to that we were told it would pass to the north of us.
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and the mets are not doing their job if they are not saying a possible tropical system is expecting to land here in 2-3 days etc...
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
The Mets in most of the islands get their info from the NHC therefore will not issue any kind of warnings or watches unless NHC has classified it.

Warnings and watches should not be issued if there is not a storm yet. My point is that 91L is not a TD yet and you do not jump the gun on naming something just because you think it will get there. You name it when it gets to that status. 91L is too broad right now and the convection is slightly disorganized. It did come together nicely overnight and is showing signs of improving conditions. It will get its label today.
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The Good news for the Leewards..ST islands..and Puerto Rico
48hour GFS forecast map
The high pressure forecast to build in should keep the storm to our south. BUT get ready just in case it's only a couple hundred miles to our south.
And boats get into a hole.. no boats on the beach this time!!!
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1068. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
T.C.F.A.
INV/91L/XX
MARK
10.10n/53.33w
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 176 Comments: 55513
Quoting HaboobsRsweet:

You do not classify something unless you know for sure that is what it is. People should know what is coming their way or the mets down there are not doing their job. A classification will not magically spread the news that something is coming. The mets there should already be doing that. Classifying it before it is a TD is a cop out.
The Mets in most of the islands get their info from the NHC therefore will not issue any kind of warnings or watches unless NHC has classified it.
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Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15947
91L is coming together nicely but is too broad to be a classified a TD last night. Sometime today it will get its status but the gradient is so wide open. The winds are probably not as strong as you might think. It will tighten up today and the HH will probably find close to TS winds in another 12 hours.
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SLU been around? Looks like they may have a rainy couple days.
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HH flight plan

000NOUS42 KNHC 271520 AMDWEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTSCARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.1120 AM EDT WED 27 OCTOBER 2010SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD) VALID 28/1100Z TO 29/1100Z OCTOBER 2010 TCPOD NUMBER.....10-148 AMENDMENTI. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS 1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS. 2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK :( PSBL LOW LEVEL INVEST NEAR 9.0N AND 57.5W FOR 29/1800Z) WITH FOLLOW ON 6 HRLY FIXES BEGINNING 30/1200Z IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS. ---ADDEDII. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS 1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS. 2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY....NEGATIVE. WVW


2. SUSPECT AREA (APPROACHING WINDWARD ISLANDS) FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 71 A. 29/1800Z B. AFXXX 01KKA INVEST C. 29/1530Z D. 09.5N 57.0W E. 29/1730Z TO 29/2200Z F. SFC TO 10,000 FT 3. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: BEGIN 6-HRLY FIXES ON SYSTEM NEAR THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AT 30/1200Z NEAR 11N 62W.
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Station 41101
Meteo France
Location: 14.600N 56.201W
Conditions as of:
Fri, 29 Oct 2010 11:00:00 UTC
Winds: E (90°) at 18.1 ktSignificant Wave Height: 6.2 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 7 sec
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.86 in and
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Quoting reedzone:
NHC should do the smart thing and classifying 91L a TD, send some warnings out for the Islands. Of course when recon goes out in it later today, they should find Thomas. People need to be notified on what is coming their way. 91L is obviously no longer a Invest, appears to be a strong TD on the verge of TS status. Wake up NHC!

You do not classify something unless you know for sure that is what it is. People should know what is coming their way or the mets down there are not doing their job. A classification will not magically spread the news that something is coming. The mets there should already be doing that. Classifying it before it is a TD is a cop out.
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Quoting WxLogic:

Looks to be TD already... may be bordering TS:


I definitely expect a bump to 90% to 100% by next TWO (8AM) with classification by 11AM ET.
I can't believe they didn't bump it last night..and they wasted shary on a potentialess blob
It's had circulation and sustained and organizing convection for a day now
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NHC should do the smart thing and classifying 91L a TD, send some warnings out for the Islands. Of course when recon goes out in it later today, they should find Thomas. People need to be notified on what is coming their way. 91L is obviously no longer a Invest, appears to be a strong TD on the verge of TS status. Wake up NHC!
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Station 41040
NDBC
Location: 14.477N 53.008W
Conditions as of:
Fri, 29 Oct 2010 10:50:00 UTC
Winds: E (100°) at 19.4 kt gusting to 23.3 ktSignificant Wave Height: 10.5 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 8 sec
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.90 in and rising
Air Temperature: 82.6 F
Water Temperature: 83.5 F
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Quoting Chicklit:
morning!

Hey Chick Morning
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Quoting WxLogic:


Land interaction should be decreasing as it gains latitude in the next 12 to 24HR should definitely start ramping up some by then, but due to the high shear to the W of the system it won't be a dramatic increase for now, but last couple shear images do show shear retreating W as 91L gets better organized.

The ULL and shear has been retreating NW at about the same rate as 91 is heading NW for the last 16 hours..so shear will not affect it much as long as it stay below 15N for now and 20N after 48hours
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What is funny is all the people accusing people of not knowing the difference between tropical and subtropical last night yet they were the ones wrong. Looks like Tropical won out haha. That stuff cracks me up.
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morning!
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Quoting Autistic2:


Ivan oh man com on. not Ivan,Had to go there....

We did the ivan thing last night.. TS at 8deg Hurricane at 10..went up to 13 then back down to grenada...similar..
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Quoting kmanhurricaneman:
i have seen sytems more rageddey than 91L and still being called a TS simply because it is closer to CONUS NHC is so full of it it aint funny just like the weather channel only when a storm/hurricane threatens the CONUS do they givr more info and coverage, sorry for the rant but its true... 91L is a TS in my opinion.. period
Yes is true, if it was about to hit conus they will classify that's why our loca Mets in the island give us the advices independently form NHC since we are very aware of that.
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Quoting WxLogic:
Good Morning...

This is not good at all... 91L keeps getting better organized. Puerto Rico and Hispanola could be in for some life threatning flooding. Specially in Hispanola if the GFS track comes to fruition. Definitely keeping an eye on it to warn family in both islands.

VORT is well established at 850MB and 500MB. I do believe we have a TD by 11AM ET if not a TS.

850MB:



500MB:



Upper level Anti-Cyclone:




So much for the SHEAR SHEAR SHEAR.. :P
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1050. scott39
Quoting WxLogic:

Do you think it will be a large TC? TIA
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1048. WxLogic
Quoting scott39:
Does it look like it will have much land interaction?


Land interaction should be decreasing as it gains latitude in the next 12 to 24HR should definitely start ramping up some by then, but due to the high shear to the W of the system it won't be a dramatic increase for now, but last couple shear images do show shear retreating W as 91L gets better organized.
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I'd probably go out on a limb and say that 91L is already a TD or borderline TS.

Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15947
1046. scott39
Quoting WxLogic:

Looks to be TD already... may be bordering TS:


I definitely expect a bump to 90% to 100% by next TWO (8AM) with classification by 11AM ET.
Does it look like it will have much land interaction?
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Does anyone know where I can view text forecasts from model runs... I have seen it before just cant find it where it turns the GFS model run into a forecast?
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1044. WxLogic

Looks to be TD already... may be bordering TS:


I definitely expect a bump to 90% to 100% by next TWO (8AM) with classification by 11AM ET.
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ASCAT has a dead hit..
The center is lower and the circulation right along the coast but it's there..
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i have seen sytems more rageddey than 91L and still being called a TS simply because it is closer to CONUS NHC is so full of it it aint funny just like the weather channel only when a storm/hurricane threatens the CONUS do they givr more info and coverage, sorry for the rant but its true... 91L is a TS in my opinion.. period
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1041. scott39
Quoting Thundercloud01221991:
Are models showing anything else beyond this that may get us to the Greek Alphabet?
GFS shows a hint of some thing in the central GOM around Nov. 5th.
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1040. ackee
I think NHC will up 91L chance to 70% or even 80 % this look like TS Tomas already
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Are models showing anything else beyond this that may get us to the Greek Alphabet?
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1038. scott39
Goodmorning, 91L looks impressive this morning. Wind shear in the Eastern Caribbean looks unfavorable for the next 36-48 hours and then shifts to unfavorable in the W Caribbean in 72 hours. Im not saying Thomas wont develope, but maybe it will keep him from turning into a beast!
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1037. WxLogic
Good Morning...

This is not good at all... 91L keeps getting better organized. Puerto Rico and Hispanola could be in for some life threatning flooding. Specially in Hispanola if the GFS track comes to fruition. Definitely keeping an eye on it to warn family in both islands.

VORT is well established at 850MB and 500MB. I do believe we have a TD by 11AM ET if not a TS.

850MB:



500MB:



Upper level Anti-Cyclone:



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the through that is expected to lift 91l out towards haiti and pr is weakening and also based on current track 91l will travel on the south of the trough and miss the pull north, jmo
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understand they are showing the world surf contest in puerto rico live on local puerto rican tv as well as world wide. heard there are some overhead sets out there this morning. sorry usa not you but it will be webcast could be a very wet period sun to tues.
Member Since: September 11, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 4987
91L should be TD21 or Tomas later today when Recon goes out.

Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15947
Is the reason that storms in the Atlantic don't form as far south as they do in the Western Pacific have to do with the tilt of the Earth?
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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