An evening shift at NHC: A Shary situation

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:57 PM GMT on October 28, 2010

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We have a rare late October triple threat in the Atlantic this morning, three "Invests" with a decent chance of developing. The most serious threat is Invest 91L, a tropical wave centered near 7N 49W, about 950 miles east-southeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands. 91L is moving west to west-northwest at 15 - 20 mph, and will spread heavy rains and gusty winds to the northern coast of South America and the southern Lesser Antilles Islands beginning on Friday night. The system is under low wind shear less than 10 knots, but is too close to the Equator to spin up very rapidly. The storm will also have difficultly developing due to land interaction with South America this weekend. However, several models are indicating the possibility that 91L could develop into a tropical depression in the Central Caribbean by the middle of next week. NHC is giving 90L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone by Saturday.

A low pressure system (Invest 90L) centered near 27N 42W in the middle Atlantic Ocean has developed a broad and elongated circulation. Heavy thunderstorms on its east side are generating tropical storm-force winds. However, the circulation of 90L has become increasingly stretched out this morning, and the storm is not as well organized as it was last night. NHC is giving 90L a 50% chance of developing into a tropical storm by Saturday.

Finally, a low pressure system (Invest 92L) centered 700 miles south-southeast of Bermuda is developing a surface circulation, and appears very close to tropical depression status. NHC is giving 92L a 60% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone by Saturday. The only land area that might be affected by 92L is Bermuda.


Figure 1. A rare late-October triple threat in the Atlantic: three areas of disturbed weather listed by NHC as areas of interest (Invests) worth running forecast models on. Image credit: National Hurricane Center.

A quiet Tuesday evening shift at NHC
Tuesday evening was a quiet shift at the National Hurricane Center, where I've spent the week as a participant in their visiting scientist program. Each week during hurricane season, NHC invites a hurricane researcher or forecaster in academia, government, or private industry to spend a week shadowing the NHC forecasters as they prepare their forecast products. The evening shift is chosen, since it is less of a zoo, and the presence of the visiting scientist will present less of a distraction to the forecasters.

There was only one area of interest (Invest 90L) on Tuesday. 90L was a disorganized low pressure system in the middle Atlantic that had gotten tangled up with an upper-level low pressure system that was bringing dry air and disruptive wind shear. I worked with senior hurricane specialist Dan Brown, who cheerfully analyzed 90L with me, but confided that this storm was barely worth keeping as an Invest. He lowered its chances of development to 10%, but did order one more run of the various forecast models, so I could see how that was done. He also pointed out two other systems he thought might turn into "Invests" worth watching later in the week, and noted in particular that the large tropical wave approaching South America was unusually vigorous for this time of year, and might be something to be concerned about if it managed to avoid South America and penetrate into the southern Caribbean.

Since there wasn't much else to see on the hurricane end of their operation, I spent the rest of the evening working with NHC's marine forecasting branch. The National Hurricane Center is responsible for preparing weather analysis charts and marine forecasts for the tropical Atlantic and Eastern Pacific, and I worked with meteorologist Felix Garcia of NHC's Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch (TAFB). He prepared the 8pm Tropical Weather Discussion, and the 00Z tropical analysis chart. I'm highly envious of the software tools NHC has to prepare forecasts and make analysis charts! I want an NAWIPS and ATCF workstation like these guys have, which allows one to zoom, pan, overlay, and quickly change speeds of animations. I'm proud to say that I am responsible for a portion of the 1016 mb isobar on the 00Z tropical Atlantic surface analysis map for Tuesday night, which I drew using the fantastic map drawing software at NHC.

Wednesday evening: A Shary situation
Wednesday evening was a bit more interesting. Invest 90L had been joined by Invest 91L and Invest 92L, and odds for development of 90L had been bumped up to 30%. I spent the first portion of the shift working with TAFB forecaster Wally Barnes, who made the intensity and position estimates of the three invests based on infrared satellite imagery. This task is accomplished using the Dvorak technique, a system of classifying cloud patterns of tropical cyclones based on how cold the cloud tops are, how much spiral banding is present, and other factors. Wally let me determine where the center of 90L was at 00Z last night, and enter the fix into the official database. I am now forever responsible for a tiny piece of the 2010 Atlantic hurricane data base--an awesome responsibility! (It's my first addition to the cause since I sent in my final Hurricane Hunter VORTEX report from the eye of Hurricane Hugo on September 15, 1989, complaining about hitting 5.7 G's of acceleration.) We classified 90L as a T2.0, which is respectable, and meant the system might be on its way to status as Tropical Storm Shary. Wally had to do the analysis for the large, ill-defined tropical wave (Invest 91L), since his eye was much more highly trained to pick out subtle motions in the satellite animations that indicated where the most likely center of circulation might be trying to develop.


Figure 2. "My boat is right here!" Forecaster Wally Barnes of NHC's Tropical Analysis and Forecasting Branch (TAFB) shows where he suspects the center of rotation of Invest 91L might be at 00Z on October 28, 2010.

Wally and I printed out the fix information we'd come up with for 90L, and took it over to Dan Brown, who was working the evening shift again over at the hurricane side of NHC.

"What, you're giving this a T2.0?" Dan good-naturedly hassled us, as we presented the fix info. "You're just trying to get something going for Jeff here so he can see some advisories get issued." Wally defended our analysis, pointing out how the heavy thunderstorms of 90L were pushing closer to the center of circulation, and how the cloud tops had gotten much colder. Dan agreed that 90L really was worthy of more attention, and commented that there was a good chance one of our three invests would probably develop into something NHC would have to issue advisories on before my final shift at NHC ended on Friday night. His prediction was that it would be 92L, the system a few hundred miles north of Puerto Rico.

An hour later, Dan wasn't so sure that 90L wouldn't beat 92L to the title of Tropical Storm Shary. The European ASCAT satellite had just sent in an image of the surface winds over 90L, and ASCAT was showing that the storm had a closed circulation and a respectable area of 40 mph tropical storm-force winds. He gave a call to James Franklin, the head of the hurricane specialist unit at NHC, who was at home. I listened in.

"Hey, I just got ASCAT," said Dan. "It's 35 knots. You can see the center, and the convection is about 130 miles to the northeast. I'm thinking of starting it as a tropical storm, but I hate to start it now, since the convection started at 21Z, and I'd like to see it persist. The ASCAT pass shows the circulation is a bit elongated, and the most recent microwave images are also showing that."

After discussing whether or not to initiate advisories on Tropical Storm Shary for a few more minutes, Dan hung up, then told me the scoop. "This is one of the most difficult parts of the job. It's a real judgment call whether or not to name a storm, when it's such a borderline situation like this. What we're going to do is issue a Special Tropical Weather Outlook mentioning that 90L has gale-force winds, bump the probability of development up to 50 or 60%, watch it for a few more hours, then re-assess." Dan then proceeded to call his replacement, Eric Blake, who was due to work the night shift, to tell him to come in as planned, since it looked like there could well be a Tropical Storm Shary to deal with. Dan then proceeded to write the Special Tropical Weather Outlook and send it out.


Figure 3. "The one that got away was this big!" Wally Barnes tells hurricane specialist Dan Brown what he thinks of 90L's recent burst of heavy thunderstorm activity.

Next update
I'll have an update on Thursday morning from the National Hurricane Center on the latest from the tropics.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting NHCaddict:
Looks like a H'ween mask out there:)
Booo!
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Looks like a H'ween mask out there:)
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Quoting hydrus:
91L looks impressive...
i believe its a go for 91L
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91L looks impressive...
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Not a drop of rain at my house west or Orlando in more than a month. Getting crunchy in the yard, worried about the well. We could really use a nice rainy, breezy tropical storm. Nothing exciting, just anything with RAIN.

~shaking the rain stick~

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Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Here's an article from the NASA website archives. Note the date, Feb 27, 2001.
Direct link to the article at the end. Another busted forecast.



ArticlesNewsNatural HazardsGlobal MapsBlogs Search Arctic Meltdown
February 27, 2001

The Arctic ice cap is melting at a rate that could allow routine commercial shipping through the far north in a decade and open up new fisheries.
Peter Wadhams of the Scott Polar Research Institute in Cambridge agrees that the Arctic could soon open up. "Within a decade we can expect regular summer trade there,"he predicts.
Link


Well forecasts are just that, forecasts. However the NE (Russian) passage is opening up to more and more traffic each year. A couple of articles which mention shipping:

Link

and for this year Link

I don't really see that the forecasts were that wrong. Gradually Canada and Russia are pouring more and more money into passage infrastructure, and they wouldn't be doing that if they didn't see it as commercially viable to do so and shipping has been able to move through the arctic for the first time unassisted in the past few years.
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77. EvPv
Ask Mr. Brown when his next book is coming out. Will the title be 'The Lost Buoy' ?
:)
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Quoting PensacolaDoug (comment #34):
Here's an article from the NASA website archives. Note the date, Feb 27, 2001.
Direct link to the article at the end. Another busted forecast.



ArticlesNewsNatural HazardsGlobal MapsBlogs Search Arctic Meltdown
February 27, 2001

The Arctic ice cap is melting at a rate that could allow routine commercial shipping through the far north in a decade and open up new fisheries...Peter Wadhams of the Scott Polar Research Institute in Cambridge agrees that the Arctic could soon open up. "Within a decade we can expect regular summer trade there,"he predicts.
Link

Good one, Doug. You take an article that talks repeatedly about the certainty of Arctic sea ice melting and the dangers inherent in that happening, yet you focus on only the part that shows forecasters were a little too aggressive on the timeline for that happening as "proof" the the theory is a sham?

Seriously?

Inadequate-but-possibly-somewhat-illustrative-analogy time: a man goes to the doctor because he's not feeling well. That doctor tells him that he has cancer. He goes to another for a second opinion, and is told the same thing. Increasingly concerned, he solicits the opinion of a third, then a fourth, then a fifth, but all of them agree: he does, indeed, have inoperable cancer. Almost resigned to that fact, he finally as asks one how long he has to live. That doctor tells him "About six months is my guess."

But then!

The man wakes up in the hospital six months and two days later, and--while the cancer is still obviously ravaging his body in and out, and he can barely move--he looks at the calendar, then laughs as loudly as his sickened lungs will let him while croaking, "I knew it! Those doctors lied to me!!!!! I didn't die at six months, so I clearly don't have cancer!!!"

;-)
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13455
660

WHXX01 KWBC 281227

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

1227 UTC THU OCT 28 2010



DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.



ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL922010) 20101028 1200 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

101028 1200 101029 0000 101029 1200 101030 0000



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 24.1N 58.7W 25.5N 61.9W 27.9N 64.3W 30.8N 64.6W

BAMD 24.1N 58.7W 25.8N 61.4W 28.2N 64.2W 31.0N 65.2W

BAMM 24.1N 58.7W 25.8N 61.6W 28.4N 64.1W 31.6N 64.3W

LBAR 24.1N 58.7W 26.0N 61.5W 28.3N 63.5W 31.6N 63.4W

SHIP 30KTS 37KTS 45KTS 53KTS

DSHP 30KTS 37KTS 45KTS 53KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

101030 1200 101031 1200 101101 1200 101102 1200



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 33.1N 62.4W 35.8N 56.7W 39.4N 46.2W 46.5N 34.4W

BAMD 34.3N 61.3W 43.4N 48.8W 52.6N 19.5W 52.5N 10.4E

BAMM 34.6N 60.7W 41.9N 49.4W 50.6N 30.1W 53.0N 1.2W

LBAR 35.3N 60.1W 46.7N 38.9W 47.3N 30.0W .0N .0W

SHIP 60KTS 59KTS 43KTS 29KTS

DSHP 60KTS 59KTS 43KTS 29KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 24.1N LONCUR = 58.7W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 17KT

LATM12 = 22.9N LONM12 = 55.3W DIRM12 = 290DEG SPDM12 = 13KT

LATM24 = 22.2N LONM24 = 53.1W

WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 80NM WNDM12 = 25KT

CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = S

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



$$

NNNN
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
028

WHXX01 KWBC 281238

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

1238 UTC THU OCT 28 2010



DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.



ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL912010) 20101028 1200 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

101028 1200 101029 0000 101029 1200 101030 0000



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 7.2N 48.6W 7.9N 52.3W 8.6N 56.2W 9.6N 59.6W

BAMD 7.2N 48.6W 7.6N 51.4W 8.2N 54.4W 8.8N 57.3W

BAMM 7.2N 48.6W 7.7N 51.5W 8.1N 54.8W 8.7N 57.9W

LBAR 7.2N 48.6W 8.3N 51.7W 9.5N 54.8W 10.8N 57.7W

SHIP 30KTS 35KTS 41KTS 49KTS

DSHP 30KTS 35KTS 41KTS 49KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

101030 1200 101031 1200 101101 1200 101102 1200



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 10.3N 62.5W 10.9N 66.8W 11.5N 70.7W 12.4N 73.8W

BAMD 9.3N 59.9W 10.4N 64.9W 12.0N 69.8W 13.2N 74.2W

BAMM 9.2N 60.5W 9.9N 64.9W 10.7N 69.3W 11.8N 73.1W

LBAR 11.6N 60.0W 15.2N 63.6W 17.2N 64.3W 17.0N 61.2W

SHIP 59KTS 75KTS 87KTS 95KTS

DSHP 59KTS 32KTS 33KTS 33KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 7.2N LONCUR = 48.6W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 18KT

LATM12 = 6.4N LONM12 = 44.8W DIRM12 = 282DEG SPDM12 = 19KT

LATM24 = 5.8N LONM24 = 41.5W

WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 120NM WNDM12 = 30KT

CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = S

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



$$

NNNN
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yeah, it's been pretty dry. winter looks to be warm and dry thanks to La Nina
Member Since: July 12, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1130
Quoting gordydunnot:

This is 20%
not for long another hour and a half should go orange maybe even red
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This is 20%
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Good afternoon...

Thx Doc... for the interesting blog.
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Quoting Bordonaro:
WOW!! Three Invest's at once!!

The 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season is WILD!!!
lets finish the game
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WOW!! Three Invest's at once!!

The 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season is WILD!!!
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
64. JRRP
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5331
POSS T.C.F.A.
INV/91L/XX
MARK
7.58N/48.88W
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ASCAT caught 92L. Strong winds, but not closed.



Member Since: September 9, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 3414
ALERT ATCF MIL 92X XXX 101028060000
2010102806
23.6 303.6
24.9 296.5
100
23.5 303.3
281200
1010281200
1
WTNT21 KNGU 281200
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE
WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 23.6N 56.4W TO 24.9N 63.5W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 32 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 28/0600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 23.5N 56.7W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE IS DEPICTING THE INTENSIFICATION OF
A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SITUATED APPROXIMATELY 450 NM NORTHEAST
OF THE LESSER ANTILLES ISLANDS. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST
AT APPROXIMATELY 12 TO 17 KNOTS. THIS SYSTEM IS TRACKING WEST UNDER A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND DECREASED WIND SHEAR WHICH WILL HELP TO
FURTHER DEVELOP THIS TROPICAL FEATURE.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 291200Z.//

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Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15776
Great post Doc. Hope some advisories get issued to see how that plays out.
Member Since: September 9, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 3414
Quoting flsky:
Does anyone think that the growing blob in the GOM will develop into anything?


It's a cold front, but I suppose you could get a cut off low.

Pressures are way high there right now.

Very windy in that frontal boundary, though. 31kts gusting to 36kts.

Link
Member Since: September 9, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 3414
Quoting JFLORIDA:




Thanks for pointing that out. It is associated with the front but it is more distinct than I would have suspected. It must also be some remnants of the last tropical system.



See post 40
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55. Skyepony (Mod)
Cloudsat caugth the NE edge of Chaba.
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53. Skyepony (Mod)
Dr Masters~ excellent blog. Thanks for the pics & recaps of your week at NHC.
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Did I time warp back to late September? Wow! Well...I did take a dip in the hot tub last night...
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Does anyone think that the growing blob in the GOM will develop into anything?
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Dr M,

I'm assuming the caption for figure 2 should read "my vote" vs "my boat" based off the article text?

Congrats on getting to shadow them in the bat cave! Great article! Keep them coming and I hope you get Shary during your tour!

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Thanks for the update Dr. Masters! It was really neat hearing about your shift at the Nhc! A hurricane on Halloween? I've seen it before. One storm that comes to mind is Hurricane Juan in 1985, the storm that didn't know where it wanted to go! Typhoon Chaba is quite a large system! Cant wait for that Cold front. Too bad we're not going to get much rain from it, but what can you do! At least it will feel more like October!
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43. JRRP
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5331
maybe I am crazy for saying this because it is way too early but I am relieved that Florida's name is nowhere to be seen with 91L and hopefully it stays that way
Member Since: July 12, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1130
If you look at the tail end of the thunderstorm complex in the Gulf off of TX, area is being pushed south by front. Wonder if this area will bury itself in the BOC, and spin up into something by Monday down there. It's interacting with remnants of Richard.
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Joe B


"THURSDAY 7 A.M. THE THREE AMIGOS IN THE ATLANTIC, TWO SHOULD GET NAMED. A DUEL TO ILLUSTRATE HOW BAD THE GFS IS... PITTSBURGH THE SITE.

Well, I may be wrong... that there is no scary Shary in the Caribbean by Halloween because its name would be Tomas. Perhaps that would be a better name for it since its will be of most concern, at least this weekend, to folks where Spanish may be the primary language. Since the system now near 25 north and 58 west could get classified at any time, that would be Shary.

I have no changes on what I think will develop into a named cyclone in the Caribbean as it will come down to how strong it can get, and that is a function of track. Until a low-level center can get defined that is a problem. But it's large and growing, and forecast shear in front of it tomorrow and through the weekend is ideal, so it's probably a matter of it staying away from South America so it can bundle energy. Again the stronger it is, the farther north it would have to be, and also the more likely it is to simply turn north between 75 and 80 west Wednesday and get entrained into whatever mischief is on the East Coast. The Euro says it doesn't make it and instead misses the trough and is still sitting south of Jamaica on day 10. In fact, its ensembles have it in the western Caribbean on day 15. This means the model is seeing something that would imply a storm is there... the chance that if this does leave, an old front laying in there could get active. We are at 17, 18 is almost a done deal, 19 is likely and lo and behold we could wind up at 20 before it's all over.

Of more concern than the number games with storms that have not impacted the U.S. is the number game next week I want to beat the GFS like a rented mule on. Looking at the numbers, they have no morning below 32 in Pittsburgh the European has four mornings below 32. So here is the duel. The ensembles have the five-day period starting Nov. 2 at 3 below normal at PIT. The GFS numbers have no morning below freezing. I will take 5 or more below normal in that time, and at least two mornings below freezing, with the first snow of the season seen in the air (if not sticking on the ground).

There we are a duel in the Steel City, a great way to start our Thursday.

Ciao for now. "
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15776
Quoting Thundercloud01221991:
So they really did almost initiate advisories last night.... huh




We've seen 'em classify lesser looking systems.
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So they really did almost initiate advisories last night.... huh
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Here's an article from the NASA website archives. Note the date, Feb 27, 2001.
Direct link to the article at the end. Another busted forecast.



ArticlesNewsNatural HazardsGlobal MapsBlogs Search Arctic Meltdown
February 27, 2001

The Arctic ice cap is melting at a rate that could allow routine commercial shipping through the far north in a decade and open up new fisheries. But a report for the US Navy seen by New Scientist reveals that naval vessels will be unable to police these areas.
It was in 1906, after centuries of attempts, that Roald Amundsen finally navigated the North-West Passage through the sea ice north of Canada. Even today, only specially strengthened ships can make the trip.
But in 10 years' time, if melting patterns change as predicted, the North-West Passage could be open to ordinary shipping for a month each summer. And the Northern Sea Route across the top of Russia could allow shipping for at least two months a year in as little as five years.
The new routes will slash the distances for voyages between Europe and East Asia by a third, and open up new fisheries. The resulting boom in shipping could lead to conflicts, as nations try to enforce fisheries rules, prevent smuggling and piracy, and protect the Arctic environment from oil spills. To complicate matters, Russia and Canada consider their northern sea routes as national territory, while the US regards them as international waters.
These predictions come in a recently declassified report of a meeting of American, British and Canadian Arctic and naval experts in April last year, organised by Dennis Conlon of the US Office of Naval Research in Arlington, Virginia. Entitled Naval Operations in an Ice-Free Arctic, the report reveals that standard naval operations could be close to impossible in Arctic waters. The biggest problem is that communications satellites do not cover the area well, says Conlon.
Modern ships and weapons rely on various kinds of sensors but none work well in Arctic conditions, he adds. Ice complicates the way sound travels through water, making sonar and acoustic monitoring difficult. Icy decks and high winds make it extremely difficult for aircraft to operate. Unbroken summer daylight makes covert operations harder.
The US and the Soviet Union invested heavily in Arctic research throughout the cold war, because it was a place where submarines could hide under the ice, ready to surface and launch nuclear missiles. But that research has stopped and no new work is planned.
Peter Wadhams of the Scott Polar Research Institute in Cambridge agrees that the Arctic could soon open up. "Within a decade we can expect regular summer trade there,"he predicts.
Link
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33. 7544
92l still going west ? tia
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.