An evening shift at NHC: A Shary situation

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:57 PM GMT on October 28, 2010

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We have a rare late October triple threat in the Atlantic this morning, three "Invests" with a decent chance of developing. The most serious threat is Invest 91L, a tropical wave centered near 7N 49W, about 950 miles east-southeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands. 91L is moving west to west-northwest at 15 - 20 mph, and will spread heavy rains and gusty winds to the northern coast of South America and the southern Lesser Antilles Islands beginning on Friday night. The system is under low wind shear less than 10 knots, but is too close to the Equator to spin up very rapidly. The storm will also have difficultly developing due to land interaction with South America this weekend. However, several models are indicating the possibility that 91L could develop into a tropical depression in the Central Caribbean by the middle of next week. NHC is giving 90L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone by Saturday.

A low pressure system (Invest 90L) centered near 27N 42W in the middle Atlantic Ocean has developed a broad and elongated circulation. Heavy thunderstorms on its east side are generating tropical storm-force winds. However, the circulation of 90L has become increasingly stretched out this morning, and the storm is not as well organized as it was last night. NHC is giving 90L a 50% chance of developing into a tropical storm by Saturday.

Finally, a low pressure system (Invest 92L) centered 700 miles south-southeast of Bermuda is developing a surface circulation, and appears very close to tropical depression status. NHC is giving 92L a 60% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone by Saturday. The only land area that might be affected by 92L is Bermuda.


Figure 1. A rare late-October triple threat in the Atlantic: three areas of disturbed weather listed by NHC as areas of interest (Invests) worth running forecast models on. Image credit: National Hurricane Center.

A quiet Tuesday evening shift at NHC
Tuesday evening was a quiet shift at the National Hurricane Center, where I've spent the week as a participant in their visiting scientist program. Each week during hurricane season, NHC invites a hurricane researcher or forecaster in academia, government, or private industry to spend a week shadowing the NHC forecasters as they prepare their forecast products. The evening shift is chosen, since it is less of a zoo, and the presence of the visiting scientist will present less of a distraction to the forecasters.

There was only one area of interest (Invest 90L) on Tuesday. 90L was a disorganized low pressure system in the middle Atlantic that had gotten tangled up with an upper-level low pressure system that was bringing dry air and disruptive wind shear. I worked with senior hurricane specialist Dan Brown, who cheerfully analyzed 90L with me, but confided that this storm was barely worth keeping as an Invest. He lowered its chances of development to 10%, but did order one more run of the various forecast models, so I could see how that was done. He also pointed out two other systems he thought might turn into "Invests" worth watching later in the week, and noted in particular that the large tropical wave approaching South America was unusually vigorous for this time of year, and might be something to be concerned about if it managed to avoid South America and penetrate into the southern Caribbean.

Since there wasn't much else to see on the hurricane end of their operation, I spent the rest of the evening working with NHC's marine forecasting branch. The National Hurricane Center is responsible for preparing weather analysis charts and marine forecasts for the tropical Atlantic and Eastern Pacific, and I worked with meteorologist Felix Garcia of NHC's Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch (TAFB). He prepared the 8pm Tropical Weather Discussion, and the 00Z tropical analysis chart. I'm highly envious of the software tools NHC has to prepare forecasts and make analysis charts! I want an NAWIPS and ATCF workstation like these guys have, which allows one to zoom, pan, overlay, and quickly change speeds of animations. I'm proud to say that I am responsible for a portion of the 1016 mb isobar on the 00Z tropical Atlantic surface analysis map for Tuesday night, which I drew using the fantastic map drawing software at NHC.

Wednesday evening: A Shary situation
Wednesday evening was a bit more interesting. Invest 90L had been joined by Invest 91L and Invest 92L, and odds for development of 90L had been bumped up to 30%. I spent the first portion of the shift working with TAFB forecaster Wally Barnes, who made the intensity and position estimates of the three invests based on infrared satellite imagery. This task is accomplished using the Dvorak technique, a system of classifying cloud patterns of tropical cyclones based on how cold the cloud tops are, how much spiral banding is present, and other factors. Wally let me determine where the center of 90L was at 00Z last night, and enter the fix into the official database. I am now forever responsible for a tiny piece of the 2010 Atlantic hurricane data base--an awesome responsibility! (It's my first addition to the cause since I sent in my final Hurricane Hunter VORTEX report from the eye of Hurricane Hugo on September 15, 1989, complaining about hitting 5.7 G's of acceleration.) We classified 90L as a T2.0, which is respectable, and meant the system might be on its way to status as Tropical Storm Shary. Wally had to do the analysis for the large, ill-defined tropical wave (Invest 91L), since his eye was much more highly trained to pick out subtle motions in the satellite animations that indicated where the most likely center of circulation might be trying to develop.


Figure 2. "My boat is right here!" Forecaster Wally Barnes of NHC's Tropical Analysis and Forecasting Branch (TAFB) shows where he suspects the center of rotation of Invest 91L might be at 00Z on October 28, 2010.

Wally and I printed out the fix information we'd come up with for 90L, and took it over to Dan Brown, who was working the evening shift again over at the hurricane side of NHC.

"What, you're giving this a T2.0?" Dan good-naturedly hassled us, as we presented the fix info. "You're just trying to get something going for Jeff here so he can see some advisories get issued." Wally defended our analysis, pointing out how the heavy thunderstorms of 90L were pushing closer to the center of circulation, and how the cloud tops had gotten much colder. Dan agreed that 90L really was worthy of more attention, and commented that there was a good chance one of our three invests would probably develop into something NHC would have to issue advisories on before my final shift at NHC ended on Friday night. His prediction was that it would be 92L, the system a few hundred miles north of Puerto Rico.

An hour later, Dan wasn't so sure that 90L wouldn't beat 92L to the title of Tropical Storm Shary. The European ASCAT satellite had just sent in an image of the surface winds over 90L, and ASCAT was showing that the storm had a closed circulation and a respectable area of 40 mph tropical storm-force winds. He gave a call to James Franklin, the head of the hurricane specialist unit at NHC, who was at home. I listened in.

"Hey, I just got ASCAT," said Dan. "It's 35 knots. You can see the center, and the convection is about 130 miles to the northeast. I'm thinking of starting it as a tropical storm, but I hate to start it now, since the convection started at 21Z, and I'd like to see it persist. The ASCAT pass shows the circulation is a bit elongated, and the most recent microwave images are also showing that."

After discussing whether or not to initiate advisories on Tropical Storm Shary for a few more minutes, Dan hung up, then told me the scoop. "This is one of the most difficult parts of the job. It's a real judgment call whether or not to name a storm, when it's such a borderline situation like this. What we're going to do is issue a Special Tropical Weather Outlook mentioning that 90L has gale-force winds, bump the probability of development up to 50 or 60%, watch it for a few more hours, then re-assess." Dan then proceeded to call his replacement, Eric Blake, who was due to work the night shift, to tell him to come in as planned, since it looked like there could well be a Tropical Storm Shary to deal with. Dan then proceeded to write the Special Tropical Weather Outlook and send it out.


Figure 3. "The one that got away was this big!" Wally Barnes tells hurricane specialist Dan Brown what he thinks of 90L's recent burst of heavy thunderstorm activity.

Next update
I'll have an update on Thursday morning from the National Hurricane Center on the latest from the tropics.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting pottery:

Sorry to hear you say that.
But not surprised.
Looks more serious than stated, right now.



Member Since: Posts: Comments:
THE TROPICAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND THEN NORTHEAST DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AS THE RIDGE MOVES EAST AND A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES.

THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT... ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE FUTURE FORWARD SPEED OF SHARY. THE GFS, UKMET AND ECMWF ARE SLOWER THAN THE NOGAPS, GFDL, AND HWRF.

FOR NOW THE SLOWER SOLUTION IS PREFERRED...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLOWER THAN THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.

over and out.
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11322
830. JLPR2
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
I was expecting to see "MASTERS" as one of the forecasters. Can't wait for his blog tomorrow.


$$
FORECASTER BROWN/BERG


There should have been a little note from Masters.
Something like:
MASTERS: WU Community we have Shary, will have an update tomorrow!
XD
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8690
Quoting pottery:

Yah!
But it's going to miss me, though!
You missed.


I don't see a compete miss... I think you gonna get wetter
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Quoting Orcasystems:




Its all Pottery's fault.. I don't see this thing falling apart

Yah!
But it's going to miss me, though!
You missed.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24307
I was expecting to see "MASTERS" as one of the forecasters. Can't wait for his blog tomorrow.


$$
FORECASTER BROWN/BERG
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting brohavwx:
All of you do realise from the latest satellite images that 91L is going through a major development stage - TD -> TS -> ...?

It is hard to believe that according to some models, especially the gifted GFS (but as stated above, not necessarily for this time of year and position), are basically ignoring this system.

Sorry to hear you say that.
But not surprised.
Looks more serious than stated, right now.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24307
According to the NHC

IT APPEARS THAT SHARY WILL BE A RELATIVELY SHORT-LIVED TROPICAL CYCLONE.

MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO DECREASE DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS...WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR SOME STRENGTHENING.

AFTER 24 HOURS...SHARY WILL BE TRANSITIONING TO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT MERGES WITH A COLD FRONT.

THE GLOBAL MODELS DO NOT SHOW ANY ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM AS AN XTRATROPICAL CYCLONE.

IN FACT...THEY INDICATE THAT THE CYCLONE SHOULD WEAKEN IN 3-4 DAYS AND DISSIPATE BY 96 HOURS.

Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11322
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Quoting Grothar:
We have Shary?


Yes we do. 92L has become Shary.
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Does anyone knows if models work better with data from storms than with data from Invests??? Is there any difference?

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Quoting foggymyst:
Orca.. there ya go with your maps again :) Not gonna believe you anymore! :P


What did I do this time... and I might point out.. what ever I did.. its Pottery's fault.
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Love the wording.

...YET ANOTHER TROPICAL STORM FORMS...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR BERMUDA...
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Orca.. there ya go with your maps again :) Not gonna believe you anymore! :P
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
000
WTNT45 KNHC 290254
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM SHARY DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202010
1100 PM AST THU OCT 28 2010

SATELLITE...SHIP...AND BUOY DATA INDICATE THAT THE CIRCULATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE AREA SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA HAS
BECOME BETTER DEFINED. THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED ORGANIZED
CONVECTION THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE DAY AND HAS ENOUGH ORGANIZATION
TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE
HAS PASSED JUST SOUTHWEST OF NOAA BUOY 41049 DURING THE PAST COUPLE
OF HOURS. THE BUOY REPORTED PEAK 1-MINUTE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 33 KT
AT BOTH 0000 AND 0200 UTC. BASED ON THE WIND OBSERVATIONS FROM THE
BUOY...THE SYSTEM IS STARTED AS A 35-KT TROPICAL STORM....THE
EIGHTEENTH OF THE 2010 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON. SINCE THERE IS
ENOUGH SEPARATION BETWEEN SHARY AND THE UPPER-LOW TO THE
SOUTHWEST...AND THERE IS A SMALL RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS...THE
SYSTEM IS DESIGNATED AS A TROPICAL RATHER THAN A SUBTROPICAL
CYCLONE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 310/20. IT APPEARS THAT
THE CENTER HAS REFORMED TO THE NORTHWEST DURING THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS...MAKING IT DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE A MORE PRECISE MOTION.
SHARY HAS BEEN MOVING BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST AND
THE LARGE UPPER-LEVEL LOW ITS SOUTHWEST. THE TROPICAL STORM IS
EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND THEN NORTHEAST DURING THE
NEXT 24-36 HOURS AS THE RIDGE MOVES EAST AND A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. THE TRACK GUIDANCE
IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE
FUTURE FORWARD SPEED OF SHARY. THE GFS...UKMET...AND ECMWF ARE
SLOWER THAN THE NOGAPS...GFDL...AND HWRF. FOR NOW THE SLOWER
SOLUTION IS PREFERRED...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLOWER THAN
THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.

IT APPEARS THAT SHARY WILL BE A RELATIVELY SHORT-LIVED TROPICAL
CYCLONE. MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO
DECREASE DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS...WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR SOME
STRENGTHENING. AFTER 24 HOURS...SHARY WILL BE TRANSITIONING TO AN
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT MERGES WITH A COLD FRONT. THE GLOBAL
MODELS DO NOT SHOW ANY ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM AS
AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. IN FACT...THEY INDICATE THAT THE CYCLONE
SHOULD WEAKEN IN 3-4 DAYS AND DISSIPATE BY 96 HOURS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 29/0300Z 27.3N 63.7W 35 KT
12HR VT 29/1200Z 29.6N 65.4W 40 KT
24HR VT 30/0000Z 32.8N 63.9W 45 KT
36HR VT 30/1200Z 35.5N 60.0W 45 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48HR VT 31/0000Z 39.3N 54.0W 40 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72HR VT 01/0000Z 43.5N 45.0W 30 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96HR VT 02/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/BERG
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21193
All of you do realise from the latest satellite images that 91L is going through a major development stage - TD -> TS -> ...?

It is hard to believe that according to some models, especially the gifted GFS (but as stated above, not necessarily for this time of year and position), are basically ignoring this system.
Member Since: June 3, 2002 Posts: 0 Comments: 64


Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32024
Shary-50-30%

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Quoting jurakantaino:
They should at least say something , I know they are conservative is getting pretty close to the islands, and models seems to be turning north...




Its all Pottery's fault.. I don't see this thing falling apart
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811. JLPR2
Wouldn't it be slightly funny, specially because of the downcasters that Noaa's 14-20named storms forecast gets busted with 21 storms. LOL!
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8690
We have Shary?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
...YET ANOTHER TROPICAL STORM FORMS...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR BERMUDA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.3N 63.7W
ABOUT 350 MI...565 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21193
Quoting Orcasystems:


Explain what was just a itty bitty little cloud to your east, that turned into the HUGE Blob... what the bejezzise did you do.. open a good bottle of rum?

Well, Yeah, but I didnt drink it ALL !!!
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24307
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Tropical Storm SHARY Forecast/Advisory
Home Fcst/Adv Maps/Charts Archive

ZCZC MIATCMAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM SHARY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202010
0300 UTC FRI OCT 29 2010

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
BERMUDA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.3N 63.7W AT 29/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 20 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE 0SE 0SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 0SE 0SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.3N 63.7W AT 29/0300Z
AT 29/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.8N 62.7W

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 29.6N 65.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 30SE 0SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 32.8N 63.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 35.5N 60.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 39.3N 54.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 43.5N 45.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.3N 63.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/BERG


NNNN
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32024
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
maybe they don't want to look foolish if it goes poof
they've been through that a few times...no fun.
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11322
I would say that Texas is a walk in the park.. but someone would kill me...so I won't :)
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They should at least say something , I know they are conservative is getting pretty close to the islands, and models seems to be turning north...
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Quoting Neapolitan:
In addition to what MH09 said in #735, there's this:

--2010 has now tied with 1969, 1995, and 2005 for the most named storms developing over the three month August-October period with 16 apiece. If Tomas is named before midnight Sunday, this year will have lone possession of that record.

--The 12 storms that have been named over the two-month September-October period is one more than the previous leaders 1969 and 2005, which had 11 apiece.

--Two previous seasons are known to have had eight September storms: 2002 and 2007. October 2002 had no storms, while October 2007 had just one.




Interesting.
The times, they are a'changin'.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24307
A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 14N49W TO A SFC LOW NEAR 8N51W TO 3N52W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT.

THE WAVE REMAINS AS A BROAD CYCLONIC PERTURBATION WITHIN THE ITCZ REGION...AS WELL AS EMBEDDED IN A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY.

SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATE BROAD CYCLONIC TURNING ALONG THE WAVE AXIS.

SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM 4N-15N BETWEEN 45W-56W.

ENHANCEMENT OF THE STRONGER ONGOING CONVECTION IS DUE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE PROVIDED BY A BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 10N50W. THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION

...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS TO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS... VENEZUELA...AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF GUYANA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.


Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11322
Quoting pottery:

Point.
In our history in Puerto Rico we had hurricane San Narciso Oct.28, 1825. winds estimated 140 miles, not to much information for obvious reason, but is a rare event in the east caribbean nevertheless...
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797. Skyepony (Mod)
Shary was a miss.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37829
Quoting pottery:

T'wernt me!
I was at a Funeral this morning, and mowing my lawn this afternoon.
Behaving myself with DecoRum and stuff....


Explain what was just a itty bitty little cloud to your east, that turned into the HUGE Blob... what the bejezzise did you do.. open a good bottle of rum?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
In addition to what MH09 said in #735, there's this:

--2010 has now tied with 1969, 1995, and 2005 for the most named storms developing over the three month August-October period with 16 apiece. If Tomas is named before midnight Sunday, this year will have lone possession of that record.

--The 12 storms that have been named over the two-month September-October period is one more than the previous leaders 1969 and 2005, which had 11 apiece.

--Two previous seasons are known to have had eight September storms: 2002 and 2007. October 2002 had no storms, while October 2007 had just one.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13527
Quoting hurristat:
Hmmmm... no intermediary update yet.


Should be coming out within the next 10 minutes.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32024
793. Skyepony (Mod)
90L in the lower right
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37829
Quoting pottery:

Point.


Hear you ... we'll see what happens in about 15 minutes or so ... for the NHC.
Member Since: June 3, 2002 Posts: 0 Comments: 64
Hmmmm... no intermediary update yet.
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789. Skyepony (Mod)
91L ASCAT pass
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37829
Quoting pottery:

Possible. Thanks.


NP. It is an impressive loop. I'm sorry you're having difficulty.
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Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:


Sorry to say, No. Internet traffic jam from your part of the globe perhaps.

Possible. Thanks.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24307
786. JLPR2
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


91L looks to be on its way to be named too, two named storms active at the same time wouldn't be bad at all for late October.
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785. xcool
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
784. SLU
Hi guys,

Long time ..

Interesting, and dangerous situation developing here tonight. 91L looks well on its say to becoming a tropical cyclone even before reaching the islands which gives us little time to prepare for it.

Winds of tropical storm force are already occuring with the system based on observations from NOAA buoy 41040 which is over 300 miles north of the center, reporting winds of 43mph.

This is a big storm.

Link
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Quoting pottery:
Anyone else having trouble loading the Rainbow Loops, C. Atl.?


Sorry to say, No. Internet traffic jam from your part of the globe, perhaps.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.