Strongest storm ever recorded in the Midwest smashes all-time pressure records

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:09 PM GMT on October 27, 2010

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Tornadoes, violent thunderstorms, and torrential rains swept through a large portion of the nation's midsection yesterday, thanks to the strongest storm ever recorded in the Midwest. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center logged 24 tornado reports and 282 reports of damaging high winds from yesterday's spectacular storm, and the storm continues to produce a wide variety of wild weather, with tornado watches posted for Mississippi, Alabama, and Georgia, a blizzard warning for North Dakota, high wind warnings for most of the upper Midwest, and near-hurricane force winds on Lake Superior.

The mega-storm reached peak intensity late yesterday afternoon over Minnesota, resulting in the lowest barometric pressure readings ever recorded in the continental United States, except for from hurricanes and nor'easters affecting the Atlantic seaboard. So far, it appears the lowest reading (now official) was a pressure of 28.21" (955.2 mb) reduced to sea level reported from Bigfork, Minnesota at 5:13pm CDT. Other extreme low pressures from Minnesota during yesterday's storm included 28.22" (956 mb) at Orr at 5:34pm CDT, 28.23" at International Falls (3:45pm), and 28.23" at Waskuh at 5:52pm. The 28.23" (956mb) reading from International Falls yesterday obliterated their previous record of 28.70" set on Nov. 11, 1949 by nearly one-half inch of mercury--a truly amazing anomaly. Duluth's 28.36" (961 mb) reading smashed their old record of 28.48" (964 mb) set on Nov. 11, 1998. Wisconsin also recorded its lowest barometric pressure in history yesterday, with a 28.36" (961 mb) reading at Superior. The old record was 28.45" (963.4 mb) at Green Bay on April 3, 1982. The previous state record for Minnesota was 28.43" (963 mb) at Albert Lea and Austin on Nov. 10, 1998.


Figure 1. Visible satellite image of the October 26, 2010 superstorm taken at 5:32pm EDT. At the time, Bigfork, Minnesota was reporting the lowest pressure ever recorded in a U.S. non-coastal storm, 955 mb. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

Yesterday's records in context
Yesterday's 28.21" (955 mb) low pressure reading in Minnesota breaks not only the 28.28" (958 mb) previous "USA-interior-of-the-continent-record" from Cleveland, Ohio during the Great Ohio Storm of Jan. 26, 1978 (a lower reading in Canada during this event bottomed out at an amazing 28.05"/950 mb), but also the lowest pressure ever measured anywhere in the continental United States aside from the Atlantic Coast. The modern Pacific Coast record is 28.40" (962mb) at Quillayute, Washington on Dec. 1, 1987. An older reading, taken on a ship offshore from the mouth of the Umpqua River in Oregon during the famous "Storm King" event on January 9, 1880, was 28.20" (954.9 mb)--slightly lower than the 2010 storm.

The lowest non-hurricane barometric pressure reading in the lower 48 states is 28.10" (952 mb) measured at Bridgehampton, New York (Long Island) during an amazing nor'easter on March 1, 1914 (see Kocin and Uccellini, "Northeast Snowstorms; Vol. 2., p. 324, American Meteorological Society, 2004.) The lowest non-hurricane barometric pressure reading from anywhere in the United States was a 27.35" (927 mb) reading at Dutch Harbor, Alaska on Oct. 25, 1977. The lowest hurricane pressure reading was the 26.34" (892 mb) recorded in 1935 during the Great Labor Day Hurricane.


Figure 2. Storm reports received by NOAA's Storm Prediction Center from the October 26, 2010 superstorm.

The six most intense storms in history to affect the Great Lakes
According to the Chicago branch of the National Weather Service and Christopher C. Burt, our Weather Records blogger, the following are the six lowest pressures measured in the U.S. Great Lakes region:

1. Yesterday's October 26, 2010 Superstorm (955 mb/28.20")
2. Great Ohio Blizzard January 26, 1978 (958 mb/28.28")
3. Armistice Day Storm November 11, 1940 (967 mb/28.55")
4. November 10, 1998 storm (967 mb/ 28.55")
5. White Hurricane of November 7 - 9, 1913 (968 mb/28.60")
6. Edmund Fitzgerald Storm of November 10, 1975 (980 mb/28.95")

So, the famed storm that sank the ore carrier Edmund Fitzgerald in 1974, killing all 29 sailors aboard, was weaker than the current storm. Indeed, I wouldn't want to be on a boat in Lake Superior today--sustained winds at the Rock of Ages lighthouse on Isle Royale were a sustained 68 mph, gusting to 78 mph at 3am EDT this morning!

Yet Another Remarkable Mid-latitude Cyclone so far this Year!
Yesterday's superstorm is reminiscent of the amazing low pressures reached earlier this year (Jan. 19-22) in the West, where virtually every site in California, Nevada, Utah, Arizona, southern Oregon, and southern Idaho--about 10 - 15% of the U.S. land area--broke their lowest on record pressure readings. However, the lowest readings from that event fell well short of yesterday's mega-storm with 28.85" (977 mb) being about the lowest recorded at any onshore site.

Commentary
We've now had two remarkable extratropical storms this year in the U.S. that have smashed all-time low pressure records across a large portion of the country. Is this a sign that these type of storms may be getting stronger? Well, there is evidence that wintertime extratropical storms have grown in intensity in the Pacific, Arctic, and Great Lakes in recent decades. I discuss the science in detail in a post I did earlier this year. Here is an excerpt from that post:

General Circulation Models (GCMs) like the ones used in the 2007 IPCC Assessment Report do a very good job simulating how winter storms behave in the current climate, and we can run simulations of the atmosphere with extra greenhouse gases to see how winter storms will behave in the future. The results are very interesting. Global warming is expected to warm the poles more than the equatorial regions. This reduces the difference in temperature between the pole and Equator. Since winter storms form in response to the atmosphere's need to transport heat from the Equator to the poles, this reduced temperature difference reduces the need for winter storms, and thus the models predict fewer storms will form. However, since a warmer world increases the amount of evaporation from the surface and puts more moisture in the air, these future storms drop more precipitation. During the process of creating that precipitation, the water vapor in the storm must condense into liquid or frozen water, liberating "latent heat"--the extra heat that was originally added to the water vapor to evaporate it in the first place. This latent heat intensifies the winter storm, lowering the central pressure and making the winds increase. So, the modeling studies predict a future with fewer total winter storms, but a greater number of intense storms. These intense storms will have more lift, and will thus tend to drop more precipitation--including snow, when we get areas of strong lift in the -15°C preferred snowflake formation region.

Invest 90L
A low pressure system (Invest 90L) in the middle Atlantic Ocean has developed a broad circulation, but has very limited heavy thunderstorm activity. NHC is giving 90L a 10% of developing into a tropical depression by Friday. Another area of disturbed weather a few hundred miles west of 90L is disorganized, and is also being given a 10% chance of developing.

Next update
I'll have an update on Thursday morning. I'm at the National Hurricane Center in Miami this week, as part of their visiting scientist program, and hopefully the weather in the rest of the country will slow down enough so I can write about goings-on here at the Hurricane Center!

Christopher C. Burt is responsible for most of the content of this post, with the exception of the commentary, which I wrote.

Jeff Masters

The Big Blow! (pjpix)
This photo and the other in my series were both take from the same spot ... just different directions and just a representative scene mirroring so many others here in the midwest. These were taken yesterday morning right after the thunderstorm front had gone through but the winds continued to increase in intensity as the barometer dropped ... to a record low in some midwest spots. The big Blow was the equivlant of a Cat 2 or Cat 3 hurricane and indeed a very unusual storm in the upper midwest for this time of the year.
The Big Blow!
Cell Rotation Animation (SunsetSailor)
Gif Created on Make A Gif
Cell Rotation Animation
()
Disappearing Pier 5 (mactoot)
I posted a video of continuous hits at youtube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ckrpWF-dXwU
Disappearing Pier 5
October Storm (cambuck1)
October Storm

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Hope this won't be real


Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9737
Quoting Birthmark:


What facts do you have that say that humans aren't the primary cause of the current warming?

Predicting climate is considerably easier than predicting weather. Climate is general; weather specific.


Only proof that this planet has been much warmer before. Its hard to prove something is not affecting something.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6149
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
havent been able to keep up with my blog lately but i do want to make my first poll since richard died off.LOL(which was about 1 day or two ago).

POLL TIME:
In the long run, do you think all of these invest will form?
(A) YES
(B) NO
(C) TWO OF THEM
(D) ONLY ONE OF THEM
(E) I DON'T KNOW

In the next TWO 90L have an...
(A) 50% OR LOWER
(B) 60%
(C) 70%
(D) 80% OR MORE

In the next TWO will 91L have an...
(A) 30% OR LOWER
(B) 40%
(C) 50%
(D) 60%
(E) 70% OR MORE

In the next TWO will 92L have an...
(A) 20% OR LOWER
(B) 30%
(C) 40%
(D) 50%
(E) 60% OR MORE

I think A or C, B, B, and A
A,A,B,B
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
High Wind Shear 40kts 50kts ahead of 91L. That's good !!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting calusakat:
Just found this in that same article.

"The leaked emails appear to show a culture of non-disclosure at CRU and instances where information may have been deleted to avoid disclosure, particularly to climate change sceptics," said the committee in its report. "

If it smells like a something rotting, most likely it is something rotting.



"Appear to show?"
"May have been deleted?"

That's powerful stuff! [/sarcasm]

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


Canevet is cool, youve been here 10 days and act like you know people. Relax.


I thank you! He acts like that because he's circumventing a perma-ban. SSI, we all see ya.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting JLPR2:


We are very close to getting our 18th tropical storm.


And 19th and 20th :P

I believe all of the invests will develop in the long-run...

1) 90L

2.)20%-er

3. 30-er
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31554
Quoting AEKDB1990:
People who accuse me of being someone else are not cool, VAbeachhurricanes. And I notice some people who've been here for 5 years or more, and he's been here 3 months. Not much longer than me.

I act like I know people because lionrock and a whole bunch of other handles started emailing me within a few hours of my joining here.


mail
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6149
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


Yeah, im not saying that it proves the whole AGW thing wrong, its just something that makes you think, how much we don't know how the changing climate will effect the globe. Which undersea currents will switch to where. No one really knows how it will effect storms. People say what the models show, well models can't correctly say whats going to happen in a week, why would you ever trust them for what will happen in a hundred years?? Its just when people don't present the facts that represent both sides of the argument, and scoff at people who disagree, or look down their nose at people, that I get upset.


What facts do you have that say that humans aren't the primary cause of the current warming?

Predicting climate is considerably easier than predicting weather. Climate is general; weather specific.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Inefficient water heaters

For Pottery:

You and I love to make money. I am into alternative energy (I am an energy geek... there already was an energy geek on WU so I had to use moron!).

How sweet it is... busted.

These are conventional water heaters, not solar.

They don't work in the southern US since we keep our hot water outside of the conditioned area.

Now, in Germany, think of the consequences... solar hot water, inefficiently done... heats the house. So what is the problem?

The problem comes when you use the product in the southern US.

Not only does the solar hot water do nothing for you in the summer (the garage is already at 110 F), but in the winter there is very little sun (since we are pumping moisture to fuel...

Nea...

Likely AGW caused blizzards (no proof)...

) so....

They increase your carbon footprint the backup owing to the inefficiency.

Yup...

And they were a government favorite. Literally top German hot water solar company.

Busted.
Member Since: December 8, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 3
586. JRRP
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
For the poll, I think, at the next update:

90L: Shary
91L: 40%
92L: 30%
Member Since: October 15, 2008 Posts: 11 Comments: 2305
Quoting JLPR2:


We are very close to getting our 18th tropical storm.
im surprised that they didnt put the % higher, like 60 or 70%, so by morning, if this trend continues we will see shary tomorrow.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
583. 7544
jajajajajajaj we have 3 invest here peeps and one on the way to be a ts and still jajajajaj
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Just found this in that same article.

"The leaked emails appear to show a culture of non-disclosure at CRU and instances where information may have been deleted to avoid disclosure, particularly to climate change sceptics," said the committee in its report. "

If it smells like a something rotting, most likely it is something rotting.

Member Since: October 10, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 716
Quoting calusakat:

I guess the next thing that needs to be done is for you to explain the following statement in your post #361

"LONDON, UK, March 31, 2010 (ENS) - An investigation into leaked emails by British climate scientists that appeared to indicate a conspiracy to manipulate data to bolster a case for global warming has cleared the scientists of wrongdoing."

Notice that they used the word 'leaked', not me.

BTW - ENS stands for Environment News Service and also note that just a few paragraphs further into that same article was this statement.

"The committee does call for the climate science community to become more transparent by publishing raw data and detailed methodologies.

Committee Chair Phil Willis MP said, "What this inquiry revealed was that climate scientists need to take steps to make available all the data that support their work and full methodological workings, including their computer codes. Had both been available, many of the problems at CRU could have been avoided."

Sound familiar??






I do remember hearing about this, and it was leaked. (and I think that AGW exists, btw)
Member Since: October 15, 2008 Posts: 11 Comments: 2305
Quoting AEKDB1990:


Not me. And you can blather all you want. But you have no evidence.

Prove to me you're not SSI.

(regardless of who SSI was and whatever he was banned for I admire him for getting under your skin. Which by your obsession with him he obviously did.)

Go troll someone else CaneVet. Your accusations without evidence have no place on Dr. Master's blog. If you were really convinced, you'd write to admin. Not start drama here.


Canevet is cool, youve been here 10 days and act like you know people. Relax.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6149
Quoting Quadrantid:


My parents live on the Isle of Skye, on the north-west coast of Scotland (they are about 57.3 degrees north). Despite their latitude, they rarely get snow, and in fact, I believe there a palm trees growing just down the coast from them.

The climate on Skye (aside from being wet/windy most of the time) is remarkably clement/temperate for somewhere at that latitude - the result of the gulf stream ploughing into the UK.

The fact it is so clement there is not evidence of global warming. The fact that the palm trees were planted (if I recall correctly) in the 1800s is not evidence that Skye was warmer in the past, or that the 1800s were as warm as now.

Skye is just a small part of the global climate. It's an unusual part, and the effects of any putative climate change there will not be the same, necessarily, as the effects elsewhere. Similarly, the past history of Skye's climate, while interesting, are just a tiny part of the overall picture of global climate.

Now why have I gone off topic to such a degree? Well, I don't know much about Greenland - but as far as I remember, the areas that were inhabited in the past are a thin strip around the edge. A small area, therefore. It doesn't seem beyond the bounds of possibility that such a small area may well have had a different climate in the past (and may even have been more clement, e.g. during the medieval warm period) than it is today. Most climate models actually show areas that will behave unusually if the planet warms.

---------------

Because I know I waffle on and get distracted, here's a TLDR summary :D

Climate data from small areas (whether it shows warming or cooling, or anything unusual) can't be used as an argument for, or against, global warming. It's the global changes that are important. It is quite possible that Greenland was warmer, and more habitable, 1000 years ago, than it is today. It's equally possible (say), that Skye was colder, and less habitable at that time. Both of them are small areas, single data points on a global picture. So one place being a bit warmer in the past (which is under debate) does not bring AGW arguments tumbling down, no more than the fact that palm trees can survive in north-west Scotland suggests that the 1800s were warmer than today.

Hope that makes some sense ;) Just bothers me intensely when people on either side of the GW argument use single small cases to argue the other side has to be wrong! We have to look at the big picture, not just focus on localised oddities - however interesting they are.


Yeah, im not saying that it proves the whole AGW thing wrong, its just something that makes you think, how much we don't know how the changing climate will effect the globe. Which undersea currents will switch to where. No one really knows how it will effect storms. People say what the models show, well models can't correctly say whats going to happen in a week, why would you ever trust them for what will happen in a hundred years?? Its just when people don't present the facts that represent both sides of the argument, and scoff at people who disagree, or look down their nose at people, that I get upset.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6149
Hohm sweet hohm

Actually, if Nea wants, he can WU e-mail me and I will give him my address so he can verify.

I'm about 1700 dollars (pre-solar... efficiency before solar always!) ahead of most of my neighbors. Pays out in 11 years what I did.

50% reduction in carbon. Simply by MAKING MONEY.

Can we get bipartisan support on this?

Been a good AGW discussion tonight :)

Member Since: December 8, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 3
Quoting pottery:

I did already!
But not because it would save the World, but because it would save me some $$$


Yeah, it helps, but everyone please try to recycle them if possible. The amount of mercury in one is very small, but it does add up.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting KerryInNOLA:
calusakat , don't argue with him. I think he has a lobotomy.

Evenin Trauma


How you doin Kerry!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
574. JLPR2
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
000
ABNT20 KNHC 280239
TWOAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1040 PM EDT WED OCT 27 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SPECIAL OUTLOOK ISSUED TO UPDATE DISCUSSION OF LOW PRESSURE AREA
OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC

UPDATED...A NEARLY-STATIONARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED ABOUT
1200 MILES NORTHWEST OF THE NORTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW HAS BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED THIS EVENING...AND RECENT SATELLITE DATA INDICATE
THAT THE LOW IS PRODUCING WINDS TO GALE FORCE. ANY ADDITIONAL
INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION WOULD RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF A
TROPICAL STORM.
THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-
LEVEL AND SURFACE TROUGH ARE LOCATED ABOUT 650 MILES NORTHEAST
OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD
BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC
ABOUT 1100 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

Complete TWO...


We are very close to getting our 18th tropical storm.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting AEKDB1990:


Not me. And you can blather all you want. But you have no evidence.

Prove to me you're not SSI.

(regardless of who SSI was and whatever he was banned for I admire him for getting under your skin. Which by your obsession with him he obviously did.)

Go troll someone else CaneVet. Your accusations without evidence have no place on Dr. Master's blog. If you were really convinced, you'd write to admin. Not start drama here.


Wow, I thought you were signing off, quite a while ago. Odd that you continue to comment. If I could guffaw any louder, I'd wake my neighbors.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting pottery:

I did already!
But not because it would save the World, but because it would save me some $$$

What better reason than saving money? :-)

Member Since: October 10, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 716
They look like Mr Bill. OHHH NOOO!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting pottery:

Saving money is high on my agenda, these days.
So I will proceed accordingly.
Sorry for Al....


Love it... you have just reduced AGW :)
Member Since: December 8, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 3
Quoting pottery:

Nahhhh!
Everything is cool and peaceful.
Except the Atlantic. And as you know, the Atlantic Season is over. Long time...


True.....Good thing....will not complain with this buzy of a season and nearly no impact to CONUS!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
havent been able to keep up with my blog lately but i do want to make my first poll since richard died off.LOL(which was about 1 day or two ago).

POLL TIME:
In the long run, do you think all of these invest will form?
(A) YES
(B) NO
(C) TWO OF THEM
(D) ONLY ONE OF THEM
(E) I DON'T KNOW

In the next TWO 90L have an...
(A) 50% OR LOWER
(B) 60%
(C) 70%
(D) 80% OR MORE

In the next TWO will 91L have an...
(A) 30% OR LOWER
(B) 40%
(C) 50%
(D) 60%
(E) 70% OR MORE

In the next TWO will 92L have an...
(A) 20% OR LOWER
(B) 30%
(C) 40%
(D) 50%
(E) 60% OR MORE

I think A or C, B, B, and A
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting txjac:
Pott ..change those bulbs! I did and my electric bill went down considerably

I did already!
But not because it would save the World, but because it would save me some $$$
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting txjac:
Pott ..change those bulbs! I did and my electric bill went down considerably


Been using those bulbs for over four years now and I did the math last year.

We are saving over $350 per year in electricity.

Member Since: October 10, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 716
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2028
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0941 PM CDT WED OCT 27 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME EAST CENTRAL GA/CENTRAL AND ERN CAROLINAS

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 736...737...

VALID 280241Z - 280345Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 736...737...CONTINUES.

REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A BROKEN BAND OF TSTMS EXTENDING FROM
SRN DELMARVA SWWD THROUGH SRN VA...CENTRAL CAROLINAS INTO CENTRAL
GA. ONCE THIS LINE MOVES EAST OF ANY LOCATION...THE OVERALL SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT WILL DIMINISH.

THIS ACTIVITY IS LOCATED ALONG A WIND SHIFT BOUNDARY WHICH WAS
PROGRESSING EWD AT 20-25 KT INTO A MOIST /SURFACE DEWPOINTS 70+ F/
AIR MASS WITH MUCAPE RANGING 1000-1500 J/KG. ALTHOUGH SBCINH
CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS THESE STATES...EFFECTIVE INFLOW PER
OBJECTIVE ANALYSES SUGGEST PARCELS REMAIN SURFACE BASED LIKELY DUE
TO THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AIR MASS.

GREATEST TORNADO THREAT IN THE SHORT TERM IS LOCATED ACROSS SERN VA
TO NRN/NERN NC
WHERE EFFECTIVE SRH VALUES RANGE FROM 200-300
M2/S2...GIVEN PRESENCE OF A 40-45 KT SWLY LLJ. FARTHER S INTO
SC...SRH VALUES AROUND 200 M2/S2 ARE ALSO SUFFICIENT FOR LOW LEVEL
ROTATION.

..PETERS.. 10/28/2010
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
000
ABNT20 KNHC 280239
TWOAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1040 PM EDT WED OCT 27 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SPECIAL OUTLOOK ISSUED TO UPDATE DISCUSSION OF LOW PRESSURE AREA
OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC

UPDATED...A NEARLY-STATIONARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED ABOUT
1200 MILES NORTHWEST OF THE NORTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW HAS BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED THIS EVENING...AND RECENT SATELLITE DATA INDICATE
THAT THE LOW IS PRODUCING WINDS TO GALE FORCE. ANY ADDITIONAL
INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION WOULD RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF A
TROPICAL STORM. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-
LEVEL AND SURFACE TROUGH ARE LOCATED ABOUT 650 MILES NORTHEAST
OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD
BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC
ABOUT 1100 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

Complete TWO...
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31554
Quoting traumaboyy:


Evening Gang.....you got drama??

Nahhhh!
Everything is cool and peaceful.
Except the Atlantic. And as you know, the Atlantic Season is over. Long time...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
560. 7544
looks like 91l might get named first and looks where the hwrf takes her hmmmm she could be named a fter dmax tonight imo
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting AEKDB1990:


Leaking means they were leaked by someone within the organization. The emails were hacked and stolen by hackers.

So once again, you lie. And you refuse to be honest about it.

Calusakat, every review and report of the 'climategate' affair has said the scientists did nothing wrong, and did not alter data.

Why do you keep lying and saying the scientists did alter data. Why do you keep lying over and over about this when every report says that what you say is not true?

I guess the next thing that needs to be done is for you to explain the following statement in your post #361

"LONDON, UK, March 31, 2010 (ENS) - An investigation into leaked emails by British climate scientists that appeared to indicate a conspiracy to manipulate data to bolster a case for global warming has cleared the scientists of wrongdoing."

Notice that they used the word 'leaked', not me.

BTW - ENS stands for Environment News Service and also note that just a few paragraphs further into that same article was this statement.

"The committee does call for the climate science community to become more transparent by publishing raw data and detailed methodologies.

Committee Chair Phil Willis MP said, "What this inquiry revealed was that climate scientists need to take steps to make available all the data that support their work and full methodological workings, including their computer codes. Had both been available, many of the problems at CRU could have been avoided."

Sound familiar??




Member Since: October 10, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 716
I really don't need a Storm right now. I've just painted most of my house and I don't want to paint again !!!!! Go away 91L !!!!!
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556. txjac
Pott ..change those bulbs! I did and my electric bill went down considerably
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Quoting pottery:

WHEW!!!
LOL to that!
heheheheh


Seriously? Grothar,, Pottery, do you think I am impersonating myself?
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Quoting EnergyMoron:


Pottery:

I can understand your frustration (it isn't as bad as you think).

Changing those 8 CFLs can save you money however.

While I respect the work of serious climate scientists (even if they mash statistics, and that is the official result of the climategate inquiry)...

Getting rid of 8 CFLs... take that high carbon Al Bore.

Saving money is high on my agenda, these days.
So I will proceed accordingly.
Sorry for Al....
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Quoting pottery:

How do you expect the quarrel to continue, if you keep making posts like that?
I trust he has a response?


Evening Gang.....you got drama??
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Yesterday, I thought that we didn't have a shot at getting to the Greek letters.

Now, I'm not so sure.
Member Since: October 15, 2008 Posts: 11 Comments: 2305
Quoting AEKDB1990:
You have any evidence I am someone else PSLFLCaneVet or you just like to post accusations without evidence. Unless you have evidence, you're just a troll.



Comments put up before I responded say a lot. You have made your own bed. Handles are irrelevant. The tone of your commentary is all most need. Hello, SSI.
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Quoting Birthmark:


Again, more nonsense. The vast majority of the data and much of the code is on-line. You can go here, for instance: http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/data-sources/

Actually, you are posting double nonsense since if the climatologists are wrong in any non-trivial way, it should be for denialists to simply download the data, write their own code, and show exactly and precisely where the climatologists are wrong. This hasn't been done.

There is a reason for that. ;)

How do you expect the quarrel to continue, if you keep making posts like that?
I trust he has a response?
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.