Tornadoes, violent thunderstorms rip the U.S.; Richard dies in the Gulf of Mexico

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:23 PM GMT on October 26, 2010

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Tornadoes, violent thunderstorms, and torrential rains are sweeping through the nation's midsection today, thanks to an explosively deepening low pressure system over Minnesota. The spectacular storm is expected to bottom out at a central pressure of 960 mb later today, the type of central pressure one commonly encounters in Category 2 hurricanes. A powerful cold front trails southwards from the storm, and this cold front has spawned an impressive squall line studded with violent thunderstorms. As many as eleven simultaneous tornado warnings have been issued late this morning for these thunderstorms, from southern Michigan to northern Mississippi. So far, the tornadoes have been embedded within the squall line, and these type of tornadoes are typically weaker EF-0 to EF-1 twisters. However, as the day progresses and the sun's heating adds energy to the atmosphere, strong EF-2 or EF-3 tornadoes are likely, if discrete supercell thunderstorms separate from the squall line and begin to evolve. So far, six reports of tornadoes touching down have been received, but only minor damage has been reported. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has placed much of southern Michigan, eastern Indiana, and western Ohio in their "High Risk" area for severe weather. "High Risk" days occur less than five times per year, on average, and are unusual in the fall. Fall storms this intense only occur perhaps once every 5 - 10 years. You can follow today's severe weather outbreak using our Severe Weather Page and Tornado page.


Figure 1. This morning's severe weather outlook from NOAA's Storm Prediction Center puts most of Indiana and Western Ohio into their highest category for severe weather.

Richard dies
Tropical Depression Richard emerged into the Gulf of Mexico this morning after crossing the Yucatan Peninsula. However, passage over the Yucatan so weakened the storm that it has officially been declared dead by NHC. There was too much dry air and wind shear in the Gulf of Mexico to allow Richard to regenerate. Richard hit central Belize Sunday night as a Category 1 hurricane with 90 mph winds. The storm is being blamed for $18 million in damage, but no deaths were reported. Belize lost about 1/3 of its orange crop to Richard's high winds. Electrical power is still out to 30% of the country, but is expected to be fully restored by tonight.


Figure 2. Visible MODIS satellite image of Hurricane Richard taken at 4:35pm EDT 10/25/10 by NASA's Aqua satellite. At the time, Richard was a tropical depression with 35 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Invest 90L
A low pressure system (Invest 90L) in the middle Atlantic Ocean has developed a broad circulation, with a band of heavy thunderstorms in an arc to the north and east of the storm. This hybrid subtropical system is under a moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear. Water temperatures are marginal for development, just 26.5 - 27°C (26.5°C is usually the limiting SST that a tropical storm can develop at.) NHC is giving 90L a 30% of developing into a subtropical depression or storm by Thursday.

Next update
I'll have an update on Wednesday morning. I'm at the National Hurricane Center in Miami this week, as part of their visiting scientist program, and will be shadowing NHC forecasters on the evening shift Tuesday - Friday to learn more about their operations. I'll probably talk tomorrow about the severe weather outbreak, but later this week I'll talk about what a shift at the Hurricane Center is like. I also have meetings planned with scientists at NOAA's Hurricane Research Division later this week, and plan to write about some of the research missions performed during this year's hurricane season.

Jeff Masters

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104. xcool
Radio tower falls on elementary school in Monroe County,Indiana near Bloomington

Power is out at CVG Cincinnati airport.
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15672
Looks like that squall line may reach the midatlantic by the middle of the night, not tomorrow afternoon.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2005
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1209 PM CDT TUE OCT 26 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OH...WRN PA...WV...ERN KY...SW VA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 261709Z - 261815Z

FRONTAL SQUALL LINE CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER WRN OH AND CNTRL KY WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT EWD INTO THE UPPER OH RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON.
VIGOROUS UPPER WAVE AND ACCOMPANYING JET MAX WILL ROTATE NNEWD
THROUGH LOWER MI THIS AFTERNOON...WITH STRONG WIND FIELDS SPREADING
EWD INTO WRN PA AND PORTIONS OF WV. POINT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS/HODOGRAPHS INDICATE MODERATELY TO STRONGLY SHEARED
LOW-LEVELS WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE FOR DOWNSTREAM PROPAGATION OF QLCS
STRUCTURES...WITH SMALL BOWING SEGMENTS AND EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS. THE
MAIN THREAT WILL LIKELY BE DAMAGING WINDS...THOUGH A TORNADO OR TWO
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. THE PRIMARY LIMITING FACTORS WILL BE WEAK
POTENTIAL INSTABILITY AS MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN POOR
/GENERALLY AROUND 5-6 DEG C PER KM/...ALONG WITH FORCED ASCENT
WEAKENING WITH TIME AS THE PRIMARY WAVE PULLS NEWD. HOWEVER...17Z
SFC OBS INDICATE TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOWER 70S WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S...YIELDING MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 500
J/KG...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT INTO
THE EVENING.

..ROGERS.. 10/26/2010


ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...CLE...MRX...JKL...
ILN...

LAT...LON 36918376 41988161 41907829 36798026 36918376


huge MD


Could central and E VA be under a tornado watch tomorrow.
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Quoting WXHEAD:


I've joined the 180 club here. Stoke up a sauna to 150, then after a good sweat you step outside. -30 chills you pretty fast.

Masochistic Tendencies?
heheheh

Not Me!!
My internal thermostat would freak out.
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Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
"The wind was almost blowing horizontally. The rain was slapping me in the face," said Anthony Quit, a 24-year-old jewelry store worker in Chicago. "My umbrella shot off. ... It was pretty dangerous."

Anthony Quit!


http://www.detnews.com/article/20101026/METRO/10260388/1409/METRO08...

Ya gotta watch out for that horizontal wind!

Anthony seems to be a rather rash young man, to leave his job because the wind slapped him a few times...
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Quoting WXHEAD:


Yeah, you kinda have to build up a tolerance for it. I can't do heat. When the house is above 70 I can't sleep.

Trust me, I'd rather have a tolerance for heat. Time to fire up the sauna (pronounced SOW-NA to Yoopers and Finns, SAA-NA for everyone else who says it incorrectly).

It's a "SAWna" here.
But we dont need them, ever, unless you are a sucker for punishment.
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"The wind was almost blowing horizontally. The rain was slapping me in the face," said Anthony Quit, a 24-year-old jewelry store worker in Chicago. "My umbrella shot off. ... It was pretty dangerous."

Anthony Quit!


http://www.detnews.com/article/20101026/METRO/10260388/1409/METRO08...

Ya gotta watch out for that horizontal wind!
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Quoting WXHEAD:
Local Storm Report


10/26/2010 0107 PM

Negaunee, Marquette County.

Non-thunderstorm wind damage, reported by law enforcement.


Marquette County central dispatch reported 8 to 10 trees
down on power lines and on fire across the County.


Which explains why the south side of town has no power but the north side where I work has it. Can't catch a break!

Sounds like things are heating up.
.
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Quoting hydrus:
moisture surge coming up from the Gulf of Mexico...


Interesting to watch the drier air work down the African coast. Should be pretty detrimental to anything attempting to form in the mid-Atlantic with the next day or so.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
91. IKE
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT TUE OCT 26 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS ISSUED THE LAST ADVISORY ON
RICHARD...WHICH HAS DEGENERATED INTO A REMNANT LOW OVER THE
SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO ABOUT 325 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF TAMPICO
MEXICO.

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE LOW CENTERED ABOUT 1150 MILES NORTHWEST OF
THE NORTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND A NEARBY UPPER-LEVEL LOW.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LESS CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THERE IS
A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL
OR TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT DRIFTS
NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 MPH OR LESS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/KIMBERLAIN
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting Sfloridacat5:
It still feels like summer down here in Fort Myers Florida.

Fort Myers Airport, Florida (Airport)
Updated: 56 min 5 sec ago
89 °F
Scattered Clouds
Humidity: 55%
Dew Point: 71 °F
Wind: 10 mph from the South

Pressure: 29.98 in (Falling)
Heat Index: 95 °F
Visibility: 10.0 miles
UV: 8 out of 16
Pollen: 4.20 out of 12
Pollen Forecast new!
Clouds: Scattered Clouds 3500 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 30 ft


Will be headed your way next week. Spend winters in Punta Gorda!
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Does anyone know if the low is cut-off from the jetstream and that's why it's going to hang around for a couple days?
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Quoting WXHEAD:


Ha Ha.

If the winds were coming from over the Big Lake, I wouldn't want to be here either.

Spent 2 weeks in Toronto, in Feb., some years ago.
BRRR!!!
Too cold for me, man!
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Lowest I've seen so far

Current Weather Conditions:
Eveleth, Eveleth-Virginia Municipal Airport, MN, United States

(KEVM) 47-25N 092-30W
Conditions at

2010.10.26 1732 UTC
Wind from the E (090 degrees) at 6 MPH (5 KT)
Visibility 4 mile(s)
Sky conditions overcast
Weather Rain
Precipitation last hour 0.13 inches
Temperature 55 F (13 C)
Dew Point 53 F (12 C)
Relative Humidity 93%
Pressure (altimeter) 28.3 in. Hg (958 hPa)

What a crazy storm, stay safe everyone.
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Quoting Thundercloud01221991:
At the rate that this line is moving I am surprised that western NY/PA is not in a mdt risk for severe storms

The low pressure center is moving north, thus the front will actually be slowing down in terms of eastward movement.
Member Since: September 21, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3690
It still feels like summer down here in Fort Myers Florida.

Fort Myers Airport, Florida (Airport)
Updated: 56 min 5 sec ago
89 °F
Scattered Clouds
Humidity: 55%
Dew Point: 71 °F
Wind: 10 mph from the South

Pressure: 29.98 in (Falling)
Heat Index: 95 °F
Visibility: 10.0 miles
UV: 8 out of 16
Pollen: 4.20 out of 12
Pollen Forecast new!
Clouds: Scattered Clouds 3500 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 30 ft

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting JRRP:


Your top image shows an area of heavy convection just east of here (top left of image).
Should bring a change to the current sunny/bright/breezy conditions sometime this evening.
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80. JRRP

Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5832
Quoting pottery:

That is a very large area of nasty weather, for true.
Some more records may fall today from all of that....


I am worried about that line extending from Lake Erie southward till about Columbus that it will affect me in western NY
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Quoting Thundercloud01221991:
Look at the line that has developed in northern Ohio... it really is strenthening

That is a very large area of nasty weather, for true.
Some more records may fall today from all of that....
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Look at the line that has developed in northern Ohio... it really is strenthening
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TVN has two chasers in the field, one in Minneapolis and another north of Nashville. Both are streaming live. Looks pretty nasty.
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Tornado Watch issued from NY down to WV
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New all time non tropical pressure in the US right now!

Link
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Eveleth Municipal Automatic Weather Observing
Lat: 47.41 Lon: -92.5 Elev: 1381
Last Update on Oct 26, 12:12 pm CDT

Rain

55 °F
(13 °C)
Humidity: 94 %
Wind Speed: NE 12 MPH
Barometer: 28.32"
Dewpoint: 54 °F (12 °C)
Wind Chill: 52 °F (11 °C)
Visibility: 5.00 mi.

Thats a sub 960 mb pressure.
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Trinidad weather now--
Temp 91 f
Humid. 59%
dew pt 75 f
pressure 1009 falling.
Heat index 102 f.

glad I'm not in Michigan.....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Chisholm-Hibbing Airport
Lat: 47.39 Lon: -92.85 Elev: 1347
Last Update on Oct 26, 11:53 am CDT

Rain Fog/Mist

55 °F
(13 °C)
Humidity: 96 %
Wind Speed: E 10 MPH
Barometer: 28.36" (960.5 mb)
Dewpoint: 54 °F (12 °C)
Wind Chill: 52 °F (11 °C)
Visibility: 6.00 mi.
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Quoting NRAamy:
"feels like Christmas"

where's my presents?

;)

Coming right up....
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Surfs up on Lake Michigan.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
"feels like Christmas"

where's my presents?

;)
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Quoting hydrus:
moisture surge coming up from the Gulf of Mexico...


Down here on the cost we have been feeling that moisture for the last couple of days. Getting progressively muggier. Dew point of 72 with temp of 84. This after we had a nice cool down and dew point drop last couple of weeks. And clouds have been flying north from the Gulf. Feels like Christmas. ;)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2005
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1209 PM CDT TUE OCT 26 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OH...WRN PA...WV...ERN KY...SW VA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 261709Z - 261815Z

FRONTAL SQUALL LINE CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER WRN OH AND CNTRL KY WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT EWD INTO THE UPPER OH RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON.
VIGOROUS UPPER WAVE AND ACCOMPANYING JET MAX WILL ROTATE NNEWD
THROUGH LOWER MI THIS AFTERNOON...WITH STRONG WIND FIELDS SPREADING
EWD INTO WRN PA AND PORTIONS OF WV. POINT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS/HODOGRAPHS INDICATE MODERATELY TO STRONGLY SHEARED
LOW-LEVELS WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE FOR DOWNSTREAM PROPAGATION OF QLCS
STRUCTURES...WITH SMALL BOWING SEGMENTS AND EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS. THE
MAIN THREAT WILL LIKELY BE DAMAGING WINDS...THOUGH A TORNADO OR TWO
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. THE PRIMARY LIMITING FACTORS WILL BE WEAK
POTENTIAL INSTABILITY AS MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN POOR
/GENERALLY AROUND 5-6 DEG C PER KM/...ALONG WITH FORCED ASCENT
WEAKENING WITH TIME AS THE PRIMARY WAVE PULLS NEWD. HOWEVER...17Z
SFC OBS INDICATE TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOWER 70S WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S...YIELDING MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 500
J/KG...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT INTO
THE EVENING.

..ROGERS.. 10/26/2010


ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...CLE...MRX...JKL...
ILN...

LAT...LON 36918376 41988161 41907829 36798026 36918376


huge MD
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Here's a good read on another big low pressure system.

"A GREAT STORM IS UPON MICHIGAN"
THE GREAT BLIZZARD OF 1978!
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Ahhh - the Edmund Fitzgerald. been to the Museum in michigan's UP.
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Never mind just found it. 968. I remember we had tornadoes on Jan 10th and 60 degree temps and rain, then on jan 11th 2 ft of snow and 50 mph winds.
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Have the "winds of November come early?"
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Does anyone remember the low pressure readings for the blizzard in Indiana Ohio in 1975? I remember those set records at the time.
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moisture surge coming up from the Gulf of Mexico...
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We have been parched for 4 months, and I'll take a half inch of rain, even with tornados. Plus it's gratifying to have our weather make the news for a change: drought (burnt pastures, feeding stock hay in august, loss of Fall vegetable crops) doesn't seem to be newsworthy.
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Link

Small power outage on the nw side here in Muncie. Some limbs and lines down. Wasn't as bad here as it was in other parts of the state.
WTHR out of Indianapolis says over 60,000 without power.
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54. JRRP
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5832

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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