Tornadoes, violent thunderstorms rip the U.S.; Richard dies in the Gulf of Mexico

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:23 PM GMT on October 26, 2010

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Tornadoes, violent thunderstorms, and torrential rains are sweeping through the nation's midsection today, thanks to an explosively deepening low pressure system over Minnesota. The spectacular storm is expected to bottom out at a central pressure of 960 mb later today, the type of central pressure one commonly encounters in Category 2 hurricanes. A powerful cold front trails southwards from the storm, and this cold front has spawned an impressive squall line studded with violent thunderstorms. As many as eleven simultaneous tornado warnings have been issued late this morning for these thunderstorms, from southern Michigan to northern Mississippi. So far, the tornadoes have been embedded within the squall line, and these type of tornadoes are typically weaker EF-0 to EF-1 twisters. However, as the day progresses and the sun's heating adds energy to the atmosphere, strong EF-2 or EF-3 tornadoes are likely, if discrete supercell thunderstorms separate from the squall line and begin to evolve. So far, six reports of tornadoes touching down have been received, but only minor damage has been reported. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has placed much of southern Michigan, eastern Indiana, and western Ohio in their "High Risk" area for severe weather. "High Risk" days occur less than five times per year, on average, and are unusual in the fall. Fall storms this intense only occur perhaps once every 5 - 10 years. You can follow today's severe weather outbreak using our Severe Weather Page and Tornado page.


Figure 1. This morning's severe weather outlook from NOAA's Storm Prediction Center puts most of Indiana and Western Ohio into their highest category for severe weather.

Richard dies
Tropical Depression Richard emerged into the Gulf of Mexico this morning after crossing the Yucatan Peninsula. However, passage over the Yucatan so weakened the storm that it has officially been declared dead by NHC. There was too much dry air and wind shear in the Gulf of Mexico to allow Richard to regenerate. Richard hit central Belize Sunday night as a Category 1 hurricane with 90 mph winds. The storm is being blamed for $18 million in damage, but no deaths were reported. Belize lost about 1/3 of its orange crop to Richard's high winds. Electrical power is still out to 30% of the country, but is expected to be fully restored by tonight.


Figure 2. Visible MODIS satellite image of Hurricane Richard taken at 4:35pm EDT 10/25/10 by NASA's Aqua satellite. At the time, Richard was a tropical depression with 35 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Invest 90L
A low pressure system (Invest 90L) in the middle Atlantic Ocean has developed a broad circulation, with a band of heavy thunderstorms in an arc to the north and east of the storm. This hybrid subtropical system is under a moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear. Water temperatures are marginal for development, just 26.5 - 27°C (26.5°C is usually the limiting SST that a tropical storm can develop at.) NHC is giving 90L a 30% of developing into a subtropical depression or storm by Thursday.

Next update
I'll have an update on Wednesday morning. I'm at the National Hurricane Center in Miami this week, as part of their visiting scientist program, and will be shadowing NHC forecasters on the evening shift Tuesday - Friday to learn more about their operations. I'll probably talk tomorrow about the severe weather outbreak, but later this week I'll talk about what a shift at the Hurricane Center is like. I also have meetings planned with scientists at NOAA's Hurricane Research Division later this week, and plan to write about some of the research missions performed during this year's hurricane season.

Jeff Masters

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After skipping a six-hour update or two, ATCF has renewed their file on 90L. Winds still at 30 knots, pressure still at 1007mb. Creeping slowly NNNE. 26.5N / 40.9W.


AL, 90, 2010102712, , BEST, 0, 265N, 409W, 30, 1007, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1014, 150, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
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Quoting KerryInNOLA:
78 in NOLA at 6am & supposed to hit 88.we need rain badly. Maybe some this Pm but no remnants of Richard headed our way as earlier predicted. Cooler, at last tomorrow thru Halloween. Will make the kids happy.
Good morning everyone! The mess in the gulf that is streaming over the keys to the Yucatan, I believe, is the remanants of Richard. It gave Key West a record rainfall total yesterday of over 3 inches. I don't have the exact measurement. Of course, the usual streets were flooded. Can't wait for cooler weather. I have heard conflicting accounts whether or not the cool front will make it this far south. I'm hoping it will.
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Quoting TampaTom:


Still waiting for that Cat 4 landfalling in Tampa like the models called for....


I'm still all boarded up. Is it safe to come out now?
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is that storm up north called sub tropical? it looks just like a hurricane. when it gets further east will it be a nor easter?
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Christmas in Haiti
Link
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i just want some rain. please baby jesus in the manger, send us some hard ground soaking rain! (in central fla panhandle)
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Thanks JF. I read some of the reports and I know Southern MI is still under the gun as we speak.
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i quit posting and coming here so much because people called me troll and flagged all my posts and i dont even know what i did. it was weird. storm was never flirty with me. now i feel like what the heck, am i chopped liver? ha. ha. no it is never cool to impersonate people. call it what it is... a form of identity theft? reverse identity theft? something like that...
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Who needs Richard when we've got our own Cat 2 right here in the continental USA!!
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Just wondering if anyone is lurking from Kalamazoo, MI this morning and how that area is fairing with the winds.
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Quoting PensacolaDoug:


Lil Richard got himself a thunderstorm this morning.


Still waiting for that Cat 4 landfalling in Tampa like the models called for....
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Statement as of 6:51 AM CDT on October 27, 2010

... Fire Weather Watch in effect from Thursday morning through
Thursday evening...

The National Weather Service in Houston/Galveston has issued a
Fire Weather Watch... which is in effect from Thursday morning
through Thursday evening.

Critical fire weather conditions are expected in the wake of a
strong cold front which will cross the area late tonight. Humidity
levels will drop sharply Thursday morning... falling to the 20 to
25 percent range between 10 and 11 am and bottoming out in the 10
to 20 percent range mid afternoon. Humidities will not recover
above 25 percent until after sunset. Gusty north winds of 15 to
25 mph will develop by mid to late morning Thursday and persist
until sunset.

.Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Fire Weather Watch means that critical fire weather conditions
are forecast to occur. Listen for later forecasts and possible
red flag warnings.





Record Report

Statement as of 3:05 am CDT on October 27, 2010

... Record high minimum temperature tied Tuesday at Galveston...

The low temperature on Tuesday at Galveston Scholes Field was only
79 degrees. This ties the record high minimum temperature for the
date... set in 2004.

Yesterday in Houston High 94.8 F Low 76.0 F

Its still Summer in Houston!!!!!!!



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Lil Richard got himself a thunderstorm this morning.
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Quoting reedzone:
Well, here's my argument on 90L...Has great vorticity, well defined circulation, and deep convection just east of the center...Despite what the conditions are, I'd say a Subtropical Depression is forming.

Been watching this one for several days now. The pressure slowly dropped, winds slowly increased, circulation slowly improved, and center convection slowly built--and that's when the NHC lowered the odds and ATCF stopped updating the file. My guess is that the inhospitable shear and borderline SSTs were the culprits.

Meanwhile, while NOAA gives both 90L and the blob below it (future 91L?) relatively small chances for development, they still see something happening in the southern Caribbean just to the east of Nicaragua. Strange...

Click for larger image:

Appropriate tropical weather-related image
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Quoting islander101010:
weatherunderground is in bed with google nowadays so they need to have strict rules. just the way it is

Ummm...huh?
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Well, here's my argument on 90L..

Has great vorticity, well defined circulation, and deep convection just east of the center..

Despite what the conditions are, I'd say a Subtropical Depression is forming.


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431. IKE
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED OCT 27 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 1200 MILES NORTHWEST OF THE
NORTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT...AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT
REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY.

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH ARE LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES NORTHEAST OF THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
UNFAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE...AND
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/KIMBERLAIN
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
area east of the windward most likely will have a nhc circle around it soon weatherunderground is in bed with google nowadays so they need to have strict rules. just the way it is
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And still yet another hot day just passed; according to HAMweather, there were 210 record high (or high minimum) temperatures in the CONUS yesterday, and just 6 record lows (or low maximums). Over the past two days, the high-to-low ratio has been 413-to-18, over the past three days it's been 546/26, and over the past week 687/78.

The heat goes on...though with yesterday's superlow landcane, there should be a nice split with record highs in the east and record lows in the west. We'll see...
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427. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory Number EIGHT
Depression Tropicale 01 2010-2011
10:00 AM Réunion October 27 2010
=====================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression 01R (997 hPa) located at 12.1S 85.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The depression is reported as moving southwest at 6 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Near Gale-Force Winds
=======================
90 NM from the center extending up to 100 NM in the western semi-circle

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 12.9S 83.8E - 35 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modereé)
24 HRS: 13.8S 81.7E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modereé)
48 HRS: 15.1S 77.5E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)
72 HRS: 15.3S 74.3E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)

Additional Information
========================

Satellite presentation has slightly improved over the last 24 hours. Although the system is still sheared, associated deep convection is vigorous with cloud top temperatures as cold as -80 to -85C. However the partially exposed low level circulation center appears somewhat more elongated than it was yesterday morning. Available agencies (KNES, PGTW, FMEE) gives T numbers supporting 2.5 or 30 knots sustained winds for this advisory.

Easterly shear seems to have slightly decreased as some expanding cirrus is seen over the eastern semi-circle. Thre is a short window for intensification as shear lessen and before the system arrives over cooler waters. The forecast intensity is basically the same than the previous one.

The system should track progressively more west southwest as ridge is building southwards. All guidance suggest that after day 3, the track should curve westward to west northwestwards. By that time, the system should be on a weakening trend over cool waters and with persisting easterly shear. Present track forecast is slower than the previous advisory package at long range, according to the last available models consensus.

The next Tropical Cyclone Advisory from Mauritius Meteorological Services will be issued at around 12:30 PM UTC..
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426. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #57
TYPHOON CHABA (T1014)
15:00 PM JST October 27 2010
=================================

SUBJECT: Category Three Typhoon In Sea South Of Okinawa

At 6:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Chaba (955 hPa) located at 21.7N 127.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 75 knots with gusts of 105 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north at 6 knots

Dvorak Intensity: T5.0

Storm Force Winds
=================
70 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
240 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
160 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 24.3N 128.2E - 85 knots (CAT 4/Strong Typhoon)
48 HRS: 26.1N 129.0E - 80 knots (CAT 3/Typhoon)
72 HRS: 30.9N 132.5E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Typhoon)
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424. JRRP






see you tomorrow
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5733
423. xcool
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Quoting HurricaneDean07:
Wow, Taking a look at the GFS 12z and it shows
-Shary forming in the open atlantic and get Sucked up by a trough.
-Tomas forming in the caribbean and going over haiti and get sucked up by a trough.
-Virginie forming from trough split caused by some energy from Tomas, near florida, and ride up the east coast.

Interesting possibility...
shary hit the midwest today and still being pummeled by 40 to 60 mph winds theough tomorrow till 7pm lotsa damage here
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417. Skyepony (Mod)
There it is..1st tropical depression in the Southern Hemisphere of the season...01S

click pic to animate
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415. flsky
Quoting aspectre:
Hurricane death in Belize... the weird way.
Quoting aspectre:
Hurricane death in Belize... the weird way.

Kind of insensitive....
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Hurricane death in Belize... the weird way.
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just took a step out the back door and had a look and the skies are crystal clear not a cloud to be seen a little cooler now winds have really quiet down looks like we are in the clear till lake morning then winds will pick up a little more again with some showers not near what was forecasted at all no big winds at all really highest gust at my loc was 63 kmh now around 30 with gusts to 40 kmh
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411. MZT
I'm in south Charlotte, looks like the bottom end of the first line is breaking up a bit. Guess I'll find out if that second line working up from Birmingham wakes me up later! :-}
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Quoting DontAnnoyMe:


Peak may be before spring.

Link
i meant peak of cane season 2011 neutral from may till late aug early sept with el nino after that to take us into the last couple of months
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Big cities about to get it in NC.

Tornado Warnings knocking on the door for Winston Salem, High Point, and maybe Greensboro.



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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
we could be neutral heading towards el nino just after peak i doubt the luck will hold out next time around


Peak may be before spring.

Link
Member Since: September 21, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3690
I'm on vacation in Cozumel this week and Cancun next week. I think, though, that Dr. Masters should visit the Hurricane Station in Key West. It's really state of the art.
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Complete Update



AOI
AOI AOI AOI

AOI AOI AOI

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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