Richard hits Belize, weakens to a tropical storm

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:38 PM GMT on October 25, 2010

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Hurricane Richard hit central Belize last night at approximately 8:45pm EDT as a Category 1 hurricane with 90 mph winds. The hurricane made landfall about 20 miles south of Belize's largest city, Belize City (population approximately 100,000--1/3 of Belize's population.) Richard's northern eyewall passed just south of the airport, which measured top winds of 37 mph, gusting to 62mph, at 8pm CST. The airport picked up 3.66" of rain. Richard was a small hurricane, and hurricane-force winds affected a region of coast of no more than 20 - 30 miles wide, just to the south of Belize City. As Richard made landfall, the eye grew tighter and more defined, subjecting a smaller portion of the country to the extreme winds of the eyewall. This contraction of the eye was probably caused by frictional convergence--as the winds spiraling into the center of Richard passed from ocean to land, the increased friction caused the winds to slow down as they reached the eyewall. This made the inflowing air pile up near the eyewall, and this piled-up air was forced upwards into more violent updrafts, intensifying the thunderstorms in the eyewall and causing eye to contract. This intensification lasted only an hour or two, before the inland motion of the center removed Richard from its main energy source, the warm waters of the Western Caribbean.


Figure 1. Visible MODIS satellite image of Hurricane Richard taken at 12:45pm EDT 10/24/10 by NASA's Aqua satellite. A the time, Richard was a Category 1 hurricane with 85 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

The top winds measured at any station in Belize occurred at a personal weather station on the offshore island of Caya Caulker, which had sustained winds of 54 mph yesterday afternoon at 3:55pm CST local time. Despite the relatively small portion of Belize that was subjected to strong winds from Richard, the storm was able to knock out power to the entire nation for a period of many hours. There are no reports of deaths or injuries, but preliminary media reports indicate major wind and flooding damage in regions near where the center came ashore.

Richard was a hurricane for 18 hours, and was the 10th hurricane of the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season. This year's ten hurricanes ties it for sixth place for most hurricanes in an Atlantic hurricane season. Our seventeen named storms this year also ranks as the 6th most in history. Atlantic hurricane season records go back to 1851.


Figure 2. Zoom radar image of Hurricane Richard at landfall, 8:53pm EDT 10/24/10. Belize City was just north of the northern eyewall, and did not receive tropical storm force winds, according to the hourly observations taken at the airport. However, Belmopan, the capital of Belize, experienced the northern eyewall of Richard. Image credit: Belize Meteorological Service.

Forecast for Richard
Richard has weakened to a tropical storm with 45 mph winds, as it moves west-northwest over the Yucatan Peninsula. Richard's small size and relatively slow forward speed of 5 - 10 mph will lead to continued weakening today as it crosses the Yucatan Peninsula. The storm will probably be a tropical depression when it emerges over the Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday--if it survives the crossing. If Richard does survive the crossing, moderate wind shear and dry air over the southern Gulf of Mexico should keep the storm from intensifying. Richard should dissipate by Wednesday, before affecting any other land areas.

Invest 90L
A low pressure system (Invest 90L) centered near 23N 42W in the middle Atlantic Ocean, has developed a broad circulation. A band of heavy thunderstorms has developed in an arc to the north and east of the storm, well removed from the center, suggesting that 90L is a hybrid subtropical system. Wind shear is a high 20 - 25 knots, but is predicted to drop to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, this afternoon through Wednesday. This may give 90L the opportunity to develop, though water temperatures are marginal for development, just 26.5 - 27°C (26.5°C is usually the limiting SST that a tropical storm can develop at.) The NOGAPS model is calling for 90L to develop into a depression by Friday, when the storm will be near Bermuda. NHC is giving 90L a 10% of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday.

Next update
I'll have an update on Tuesday. I'm not sure when that update will be, as I am catching a flight to Miami in the morning. I've been invited to spend the week at the National Hurricane Center as part of their visiting scientist program, and will be shadowing NHC forecasters on the evening shift Tuesday - Friday to learn more about their operations. I'll be writing a post later this week about what a shift is like at the Hurricane Center. I also have meetings planned with scientists at NOAA's Hurricane Research Division, and plan to write about some of the research missions performed during this year's hurricane season.

Our weather extremes expert Christopher C. Burt has a very interesting post today on the hottest temperatures ever measured on Earth.

Jeff Masters

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Now here is somthing interesting and has no bearing on the AGW debate.

Notice in the right-hand graphic above how (as of 3 days ago) the sea ice has yet to form off of Barrow Alaska (Chuckchi Sea) Take a look now at todays webcam shot of the ocean off of Barrow. What a difference 3 days makes!

Link
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Quoting JFLORIDA:
Dont take my word for it - lets go the scientific route.

A 2010 paper in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences analysed 1,372 climate researchers and their publication and citation data to show that (i) 97% 98% of the climate researchers most actively publishing in the field support the tenets of ACC outlined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, and (ii) the relative climate expertise and scientific prominence of the researchers unconvinced of ACC are substantially below that of the convinced researchers.
I guess we will all just have to wait and see. I wonder how long it will take to prove someone correct or erroneous with these hypotheses?
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Quoting JFLORIDA:
Mid latitudes:


Puncak Jaya icecap 1936


Puncak Jaya icecap 1972



Today seasonal extreme


Today.



Report on the months those photos were taken, please.

As you know (you're no fool) amount of snow varies month to month.

I have no way of knowing whether the snow in question from previous photos compares with this current month.

I do know I've seen photos of dozens of other glaciers and they're all shrinking, especially when aligned in terms of season.
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Quoting pilotguy1:


I still haven't seen any evidence of these flooding cities. The rest seems to be something that has been going on forever.
You evidently haven't seen the news concerning Venice that is getting flooded in their squares with high tides. We now get salt water in the streets in Key West at extreme high tides. How about that Island in the Pacific that is disappearing? It has been in the news now for a while. Where were you?
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I just love the arrogance of fear mongering liberals. "There is no other explanation"

Really, you know everything? You are absolutely certain of this? You can explain every past climate cycle and you can clearly predict the future weather patterns with absolute certainty. No wonder you guys are atheists. You believe that YOU are god!

What did the glaciers look like when the Vikings and their ancestors were living on the land that is STILL under ice? How did that happen? Were their boats really powered by gasoline and we just don't know it? The CO2 levels must have been off the charts. Actually, they probably were because everyone knows that the amount of CO2 that can be dissolved in water is inversely related to its temperature so the oceans probably did release CO2 into the atmosphere. And there we have it. A chicken and egg argument. Correlation is not the same a causality.
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Quoting smartinwx:


Wow, I'm glad that's settled!!! LMAO


Better try again JF. You have some doubters.
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274. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19
21:00 PM JST October 25 2010
=================================

At 12:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1010 hPa) located at 22.0N 153.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 40 knots. The depression is reported as moving north slowly
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273. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #6
TROPICAL STORM KATRING (CHABA)
11:00 PM PhST October 25 2010
=====================================

Tropical Storm "KATRING"" has intensified as it continues to move a north northwestward direction.

At 10:00 PM PhST, Tropical Storm Katring (Chaba) located at 18.0N 130.0E or 730 km east of Northern Luzon has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 65 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north northwest at 5 knots

Additional Information
=======================
This weather disturbance is still far to affect any part of the country.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin alert to be issued at 5 a.m. tomorrow.

Updates on TS "KATRING" will be included in the 5 a.m. Weather Forecast tomorrow.
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272. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #45
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM CHABA (T1014)
3:00 AM JST October 26 2010
=================================

SUBJECT: Category Two Typhoon In Sea East Of The Philippines

At 18:00 PM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Chaba (975 hPa) located at 18.6N 129.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 60 knots with gusts of 85 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north northwest at 8 knots

Dvorak Intensity: T4.0

Storm Force Winds
=================
50 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
200 NM from the center in eastern quadrant
140 NM from the center in western quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 20.2N 128.5E - 75 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm)
48 HRS: 21.8N 128.3E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Typhoon)
72 HRS: 24.0N 128.9E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Typhoon)
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270. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory Number TWO
Perturbation Tropicale 01 20102011
22:00 PM Réunion October 25 2010
=====================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Disturbance 01R (1003 hPa) located at 10.3S 86.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 35 knots. The disturbance is reported as moving south at 6 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 11.0S 86.2E - 25 knots (Perturbation Tropicale)
24 HRS: 11.8S 85.6E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)
48 HRS: 13.3S 82.4E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modereé)
72 HRS: 14.1S 78.8E - 50 knots (Forte Tempéte Tropicale)

Additional Information
========================
The system still undergoes a moderate to strong easterly vertical wind shear and the low level circulation is well exposed. Deep convection is present over the western part of the system. The movement is southwestward at 9 knots. The equatorward low level inflow is worse than yesterday, but is good polewards. The system is expected to track southwestward and then west southwest. Vertical wind shear should weaken progressively up to 24 hours, as the system comes nearer to the upper level ridge axis located in the south. For the next three days, sea surface temperatures remain at about 27C and beyond become cooler. According with this condition, available numerical weather prediction models forecasts a slow intensification during the next 72 hours.
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Quoting JFLORIDA:


Warming is irrefutable and increased CO2/"greenhouse gases" are the only culprit.


Wow, I'm glad that's settled!!! LMAO
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I believe the earth is going through one of it's cycles where there will be huge extinction of life. Whether man survives will depend on how adaptable he is, just as the animals in the past that survived such events. How long will it take? Who knows! It will be interesting to watch. Or maybe the Mayans were right and some huge catastophe will happen in 2012. I am still of the belief that mankind was placed on this planet as an experiment. Will the "scientists" who placed us here allow us to destroy our earth, documenting as they go or will they interfere in order to save mankind. If they can do that, they are some powerful beings. The earth will do what it is going to do despite what man thinks or does. I just don't understand why everyone gets so "hot under the collar" about discussing everyone's hypotheses. Even to the point of insulting each other. And NO, I do not have any scientific facts for any of this. As stated at the beginning, this is my belief.
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Interesting. 91s in the southern Indian Ocean.

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Quoting pilotguy1:


My point is the question. If we are in fact having global warming who is to decide that is a bad thing. If in fact 1998 was a peak year in this cycle who's to say this is a bad thing. It seems to me that a lot of people have staked out a position without really knowing if what's happening is good or bad much less being sure of what's happening or why?


That basically what I thought you were trying to point out and I agree.
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Quoting JFLORIDA:


Yes, the deniers on current research but specifically you on presenting useful climate studies/data - you are confirming that now.

And as for harassing others with no real input I would extend it to other topics with you as well.

Do you have a SINGLE legitimate post to make here?

If not, Here:

Welcome to Facebook


Thanks. I just sent you a friend request.
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Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 22 Comments: 10052
Quoting JFLORIDA:
Mid latitudes:


Puncak Jaya icecap 1936


Puncak Jaya icecap 1972



Today seasonal extreme


Today.

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Quoting PensacolaDoug:


The point I'm attempting to make is if the ice had not recovered somewhat from the "Death spiral" of 2007, The AGW people would be posting the images and showing them as more "proof" of the AGW theory. The fact that the ice has been making a comeback does not prove my case at all. It should however, underscore the point that the AGW debate isn't the "slam dunk" that its proponents expouse.
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Quoting Grothar:


76 Deg. Humidity 41%, That's nice.
Air velocity is the third leg of the equation for indoor comfort.
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Quoting SuperTyphoonLionrock:


I can also use that same argument then, watch:

Remember, only two things can cause a glacier to grow: A) an increase in snowfall, and B) colder temperatures. Since colder temperatures have been proven to decrease snowfall in some areas by allowing less precipitable water, an anomalously shrinking glacier is not a sign of warming.

That would be a valid argument--if only an anomalous handful of glaciers were shrinking and the rest were growing far faster than anyone expected. Unfortunately for both your argument and the planet, however, that's not the case, is it? (Please see post #210.)

And with that I really am out for a bit. Aufwiedersehen...
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 14505
Seems like there is a troll loose in the blog:-)
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Quoting TampaSpin:
That Minus - button works so nice........LOL


I was doing the same thing!..LOL And I never do that!!
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Dr. Masters co-founded wunderground in 1995. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990. Co-blogging with him: Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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