Hurricane Richard bears down on Belize

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:35 PM GMT on October 24, 2010

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Data from an Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft confirms that Richard has intensified to hurricane strength, as it bears down on the coast of Belize. At 7:30am CST, the aircraft measured surface winds of 85 mph. Winds at their 5,000 foot flight level were 97 mph, qualifying Richard as the 10th hurricane of the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season. This year is now tied for sixth place for most hurricanes in an Atlantic hurricane season. This year's 17 named storms also ranks 6th most in history. Atlantic hurricane season records go back to 1851. Richard's center passed just north of the Honduras' Bay Islands this morning, bringing winds of 46 mph, gusting to 58 mph, to the Roatan Airport. Winds were clocked at 49 mph, gusting to 69 mph, at Calabash Bight on Roatan Island.

The latest 8am CST eye report from the Hurricane Hunters noted that Richard had formed a nearly complete eyewall, with a gap in the southwest side. Radar images from the Belize radar also showed this gap, but the gap closed at 9am CST, and Richard now has a complete eyewall, which will promote more rapid intensification. Recent satellite imagery shows a symmetrical, well-organized hurricane with respectable low level spiral banding, and upper level outflow improving in all quadrants. Richard has now walled itself off from the dry air to the storm's west, as seen on water vapor satellite loops.


Figure 1. The eye of Richard is very prominent in this radar image from the Belize radar taken at 9:15am CST 10/24/10. Image credit: Belize Meteorological Service.

Forecast for Richard
The latest set of 12am CST (6Z) model runs are in excellent agreement with Richard's track, taking the enter of the storm inland over Belize between 4pm - 9pm CST tonight. The latest radar animations from the Belize radar indicate that Belize City will experience a portion of the eyewall of Richard, and residents of Belize City can expect a 2 - 4 hour period of hurricane force winds to begin between 4pm - 6pm CST this evening. Tropical storm force winds of 39+ mph should arrive at the coast between 2pm - 4pm CST this afternoon. A good way to estimate these arrival times is using the wundermap with the "hurricane" layer turned on and the "wind radius" and "forecast" boxes checked. Richard is in a very favorable environment for intensification, with low wind shear between 5 - 10 knots, and warm water temperatures of 29 - 29.5┬░C. Given these conditions, and the fact that the eyewall is is now fully formed, Richard will probably undergo a period of rapid intensification that could take it to Category 2 strength with 100 mph winds at landfall this evening. Once inland, Richard's small size and relatively slow forward speed of 5 - 10 mph on Monday will lead to substantial weakening as it crosses the Yucatan Peninsula. The storm will probably be a tropical depression when it emerges over the Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday--if it survives the crossing. If Richard does survive the crossing, high wind shear over the Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday and Wednesday should keep the storm from intensifying. Richard should dissipate by Wednesday, before affecting any other land areas.

Invest 90L
A tropical wave (Invest 90L) centered 600 miles northwest of the Cape Verde Islands off the coast of Africa is encountering a very high 40 - 60 knots of wind shear. The shear is predicted to drop to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, Monday through Wednesday. This may give 90L the opportunity to develop, and the NOGAPS model is calling for 90L to develop into a tropical depression by mid-week. NHC is giving 90L a 10% of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday.

Next update
I'll have an update on Monday morning at the latest.

Our weather extremes expert Christopher C. Burt has a very interesting post today on the hottest temperatures ever measured on Earth.

Jeff Masters

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877. IKE
1:00 PM GMT on October 25, 2010
NEW BLOG!
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
876. TropicalAnalystwx13
12:51 PM GMT on October 25, 2010
Last image, which is personally my favorite:

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32335
875. TropicalAnalystwx13
12:49 PM GMT on October 25, 2010
This was the strongest storm of all the storms in the USA at the time...Probably the one I got with my camera. This storm had a hail size of 3.5 at the time I believe, and look at the VIL...Bottom right corner...where it says max...

127 kg/m2

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32335
874. TropicalAnalystwx13
12:44 PM GMT on October 25, 2010
Quoting Jeff9641:
Amazing TX tornado footage yesterday. I think this is just the sign of things to come with temps and humidity way above average for late October.

http://www.weather.com/outlook/videos/texas-tornado-caught-on-cam-18607


I took this with my camera yesterday afternoon. The storms were long ways away (Probably over an hour and a half), so I got this image:

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32335
873. stillwaiting
12:35 PM GMT on October 25, 2010
britton hill fl,elv 345ft above sea level,think they hae snow guns??,lol
Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970
872. aspectre
12:33 PM GMT on October 25, 2010
TropicalStormRichard's heading had turned northward to (3.3degrees west of) WestNorthWest
from its previous heading of dueWest
TS.Richard's average speed moving between its last 2 reported positions had increased to ~7mph(~11.3km/h) from its previous travel speed of ~6.7mph(~10.7km/h)
TS.Richard
24Oct 12pmGMT - 16.8n86.4w - 70mph(~112.6km/h) - 990mb - #14A
H.Richard
24Oct 03pmGMT - 16.9n86.9w - 85mph(~136.8km/h) - 991mb - #15
24Oct 06pmGMT - 17.1n87.5w - 85mph(~136.8km/h) - 988mb - #15A
24Oct 09pmGMT - 17.2n88.0w - 90mph(~144.8km/h) - 981mb - NHC.Adv.#16
25Oct 12amGMT - 17.2n88.2w - 90mph(~144.8km/h) - 981mb - #16A
25Oct 03amGMT - 17.3n88.6w - 90mph(~144.8km/h) - 981mb - #17
25Oct 06amGMT - 17.6n89.3w - 75mph(~120.7km/h) - 987mb - #17A
TS.Richard
25Oct 09amGMT - 17.6n89.6w - 65mph(~104.6km/h) - 993mb - #18
25Oct 12pmGMT - 17.7n89.9w - 45mph(~72.4km/h) - 1005mb - #18A

Copy&paste 16.8n86.4w, 16.9n86.9w, 17.1n87.5w, 17.2n88.0w, 17.2n88.2w-17.3n88.6w, 17.3n88.6w-17.6n89.3w, 17.6n89.3w-17.6n89.6w, 17.6n89.6w-17.7n89.9w, ver, pnd, cun into the GreatCircleMapper for a look at the headings and distances travelled over the last 12^hours.

Essentially TS.Richard has spent the last 6hours ripping itself apart on northern Guatemala's highlands.

While the highest and the worst of the rugged terrain is now behind Richard, there's still enough ahead that it is to be expected that the TropicalStorm will be downgraded to to a TropicalDepression by the next NHC.Advisory.
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
871. kshipre1
12:27 PM GMT on October 25, 2010
wonder if another trough is coming down to potentially swing this thing northward
Member Since: July 12, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1130
870. Neapolitan
12:27 PM GMT on October 25, 2010
The Caribbean is for the most part cooler than it was two weeks ago, but it's still more than warm enough for more fun stuff. As they say, "cooler than it was" isn't the same as "cool". And with record to near-record highs expected over much of the area the next week or so, don't look for things to be much cooler come the first part of November. Here's a two-week comparison:

October 9 (click for larger image):

Appropriate tropical weather-related image


October 23 (click for larger image:

Appropriate tropical weather-related image
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13579
868. stillwaiting
12:15 PM GMT on October 25, 2010
Quoting weatherbro:


Actually it's Sugarloaf Mountain in Clearmont(chuckle).
.....actually its along the al/fl boarder in the noryhern panhandle approx 380ft above sea level,maybe on the peninsula claermont is but not the intire state
Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970
866. kmanhurricaneman
12:03 PM GMT on October 25, 2010
next wk could be interesting!!
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1002
865. kmanhurricaneman
12:01 PM GMT on October 25, 2010
is this what the models are indicating
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1002
864. IKE
11:53 AM GMT on October 25, 2010
...RICHARD CONTINUES WEAKENING INLAND OVER NORTHERN GUATEMALA...
7:00 AM CDT Mon Oct 25
Location: 17.7N, 89.9W
Max sustained: 45 mph
Moving: WNW at 9 mph
Min pressure: 1005 mb

.......................................

3 hours ago it was at...

INITIAL 25/0900Z 17.6N 89.6W 55 KT...INLAND
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
863. sailingallover
11:50 AM GMT on October 25, 2010
Looks like we are in a calm period for a while.
Not much out there that has the possibility of development. High pressure firmly in control of the atlantic basin with a little wave at 45W 15N and another at 25W 10N both with no circulation and dry air and the shear is high everywhere..

The trades are blowing and water temperatures dropping. You can feel the warmth and moisture being pulled off the ocean by the wind as you get alternating dry cool air mixed with the tropical air...

Member Since: September 1, 2009 Posts: 23 Comments: 1007
862. DDR
11:46 AM GMT on October 25, 2010
Quoting clwstmchasr:
Crown Weather believes we'll sneak one more storm in.

All interests in the central and eastern Caribbean will need to pay close attention to the possibility of tropical cyclone development this weekend or more likely early next week. The overall pattern in the Caribbean next week favors lowering barometric pressures and upward motion and also all of the global model guidance agrees on the possibility of tropical cyclone development in either the central or eastern Caribbean as we get into early next week.

Thanks
whats interesting to me is that the gfs has a low passing just off the Venezuelan coast a few runs now.
Member Since: April 27, 2007 Posts: 14 Comments: 1703
861. Patrap
11:41 AM GMT on October 25, 2010
G'morn dak..

Coffee and Sunrise almost here.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128865
860. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
11:41 AM GMT on October 25, 2010
19L/TD/R
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54616
859. Dakster
11:36 AM GMT on October 25, 2010
Good Morning...

How is everyone doing this fine Monday?
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10534
858. Patrap
11:33 AM GMT on October 25, 2010
Richard WunderMap®
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128865
857. Patrap
11:32 AM GMT on October 25, 2010



Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128865
856. islander101010
11:24 AM GMT on October 25, 2010
Quoting surfmom:
Quick peek b/4 heading out east to the BARN -- 30% chance of rain..... that ain't gonna cut it -- we need 100% -- backyard is looking like a dustbowl... and we need to seed the horse pastures out east....

Seems Belize is down (power) from Ricky-boy as he drenched 4 Latin American countries - let's hope no mudslides

Good day to all - PraysUp for rain here in SWFL
already west nile in s florida if it does rain not sure what would happen
Member Since: September 11, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 4774
854. WxLogic
11:21 AM GMT on October 25, 2010
Good Morning...
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 4977
853. IKE
11:08 AM GMT on October 25, 2010
Belize
City, Belize airport....for October 24th, 2010....

Wind:
Wind Speed 9 mph
Max Wind Speed 37 mph
Max Gust Speed 62 mph
Visibility 4.3 miles
Events Rain , Thunderstorm

.............................................

HURRICANE RICHARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192010
1000 PM CDT SUN OCT 24 2010

RADAR DATA FROM BELIZE INDICATE THAT RICHARD MADE LANDFALL AROUND
0045 UTC ABOUT 20 N MI SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BELIZE CITY.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
852. surfmom
11:06 AM GMT on October 25, 2010
Quick peek b/4 heading out east to the BARN -- 30% chance of rain..... that ain't gonna cut it -- we need 100% -- backyard is looking like a dustbowl... and we need to seed the horse pastures out east....

Seems Belize is down (power) from Ricky-boy as he drenched 4 Latin American countries - let's hope no mudslides

Good day to all - PraysUp for rain here in SWFL
Member Since: July 18, 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26536
851. hurristat
10:56 AM GMT on October 25, 2010
Quoting winter123:
Just dropped in to say... Richard looks amazing considering how far inland it is, and that it's going over mountains! I have no doubts it's going to regenerate into a hurricane, maybe even pull an Alex and hit cat 3 before it more than likely goes into mexico. Amazing, no landfalls on the US this season. Mexico and bermuda and the islands got hit hard though.


Alex, Hermine, Bonnie, TD5, TD2, and Earl all impacted the US.

And for regeneration, shear is way too high for it to even strengthen. That's why the NHC weakens it slowly and dissipates it at 96 hours out.
Member Since: October 15, 2008 Posts: 11 Comments: 2312
850. Autistic2
10:48 AM GMT on October 25, 2010
I think the season is over for U.S. Wish we could get some rain here in NE Fl.
Member Since: August 29, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 476
849. islander101010
10:44 AM GMT on October 25, 2010
cyber might be right this time sure was not right about early season development. it looks like that character nailed it at the end of the season though.
Member Since: September 11, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 4774
848. Autistic2
10:44 AM GMT on October 25, 2010
If my GPS is correct, my housr is 22 feet asl
Member Since: August 29, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 476
847. stoormfury
10:27 AM GMT on October 25, 2010
that disturbance is now in the deep eastern atlantic, and will track lower than normal
Member Since: August 22, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2715
846. aislinnpaps
10:20 AM GMT on October 25, 2010
Morning, everyone.
Member Since: August 22, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 3150
845. CybrTeddy
10:16 AM GMT on October 25, 2010
Quoting ackee:
I see both the GFS and Ecmwf continue to devlop, another storm that far out nothing be too concern at this time after 5 days take it more serious


CMC long range has it too.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24246
844. ackee
9:51 AM GMT on October 25, 2010
I see both the GFS and Ecmwf continue to devlop, another storm that far out nothing be too concern at this time after 5 days take it more serious
Member Since: July 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1373
843. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
8:40 AM GMT on October 25, 2010
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19
15:00 PM JST October 25 2010
=================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1008 hPa) located at 22.0N 153.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 40 knots. The depression is reported as moving west slowly
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45731
842. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
8:28 AM GMT on October 25, 2010
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #41
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM CHABA (T1014)
15:00 PM JST October 25 2010
=================================

SUBJECT: Category Two Typhoon In Sea East Of The Philippines

At 6:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Chaba (985 hPa) located at 17.4N 130.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 70 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north northwest slowly

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5

Gale Force Winds
================
140 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 19.0N 129.3E - 60 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm)
48 HRS: 21.0N 129.0E - 65 knots (CAT 3/Typhoon)
72 HRS: 23.5N 129.3E - 70 knots (CAT 3/Typhoon)
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45731
841. winter123
8:24 AM GMT on October 25, 2010
Just dropped in to say... Richard looks amazing considering how far inland it is, and that it's going over mountains! I have no doubts it's going to regenerate into a hurricane, maybe even pull an Alex and hit cat 3 before it more than likely goes into mexico. Amazing, no landfalls on the US this season. Mexico and bermuda and the islands got hit hard though.
Member Since: July 29, 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 1799
840. weatherbro
7:05 AM GMT on October 25, 2010
Quoting AEKDB1990:
There is Mount Dora in Florida. That's about 180 feet I think. That may be the highest elevation in the peninsula.


Actually it's Sugarloaf Mountain in Clearmont(chuckle).
Member Since: May 26, 2007 Posts: 47 Comments: 1327
839. weatherbro
7:00 AM GMT on October 25, 2010
At least Halloween Weekend will be nice and cool in Florida. There's nothing I hate more then spending Halloween on a muggy night!
Member Since: May 26, 2007 Posts: 47 Comments: 1327
838. aspectre
6:58 AM GMT on October 25, 2010
HurricaneRichard's heading had turned northward to (1.7degrees north of) WestNorthWest
from its previous heading of 7.9degrees west of WestNorthWest
H.Richard's average speed moving between its last 2 reported positions had increased to ~17mph(~27.4km/h) from its previous travel speed of ~9mph(~14.5km/h)
TropicalStormRichard
24Oct 06amGMT - 16.4n85.1w - 70mph(~112.6km/h) - 995mb - #13A
24Oct 09amGMT - 16.5n85.5w - 70mph(~112.6km/h) - 995mb - #14
24Oct 12pmGMT - 16.8n86.4w - 70mph(~112.6km/h) - 990mb - #14A
HurricaneRichard
24Oct 03pmGMT - 16.9n86.9w - 85mph(~136.8km/h) - 991mb - NHC.Adv.#15
24Oct 06pmGMT - 17.1n87.5w - 85mph(~136.8km/h) - 988mb - #15A
24Oct 09pmGMT - 17.2n88.0w - 90mph(~144.8km/h) - 981mb - #16
25Oct 12amGMT - 17.2n88.2w - 90mph(~144.8km/h) - 981mb - #16A
25Oct 03amGMT - 17.3n88.6w - 90mph(~144.8km/h) - 981mb - #17
25Oct 06amGMT - 17.6n89.3w - 75mph(~120.7km/h) - 987mb - #17A

Copy&paste 16.4n85.1w, 16.5n85.5w, 16.8n86.4w, 16.9n86.9w, 17.1n87.5w-17.2n88.0w, 17.2n88.0w-17.2n88.2w, 17.2n88.2w-17.3n88.6w, 17.3n88.6w-17.6n89.3w, cun, 17.6n89.3w-cme into the GreatCircleMapper for a look at the headings and distances travelled over the last 12^hours.

Using straightline projection upon the speed&heading averaged
over the 3hours spanning the last two reported positions:
H.Richard will be taxiing across Guatamala then Mexico for a 4:35pmGMT takeoff tomorrow
from Ciudad del Carmen International Airport for its flight over the Bay of Campeche

^ The westernmost line-segment is the straightline projection
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
837. JLPR2
6:39 AM GMT on October 25, 2010
Well I'm off to bed too!

Buena notte tutti!
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8735
836. tornadodude
6:37 AM GMT on October 25, 2010
haha


well Im going to call it a night, have a great one everybody, im sure I'll drop in tomorrow!
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
835. justalurker
6:34 AM GMT on October 25, 2010
Quoting Grothar:


per chi? Sono vecchio


va bene...anche io..ciao tutti..haha
Member Since: August 18, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 157
834. Grothar
6:33 AM GMT on October 25, 2010
.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26541
833. JLPR2
6:32 AM GMT on October 25, 2010
Quoting tornadodude:

<

haha wow man


I guess I can't complain since it is my fault I'm so far behind, eh...
You guys will probably not see me till Wednesday. LOL!
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8735
832. justalurker
6:31 AM GMT on October 25, 2010
Quoting Grothar:


a dormire


e tropo presto a dormire
Member Since: August 18, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 157
831. Grothar
6:31 AM GMT on October 25, 2010
.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26541
830. geepy86
6:30 AM GMT on October 25, 2010
take care dude bed time here.
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1703
829. Grothar
6:30 AM GMT on October 25, 2010
Quoting justalurker:
Dove vai..


a dormire
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26541
828. tornadodude
6:27 AM GMT on October 25, 2010
Quoting Grothar:


I am still traveling, would you believe! I would have sent you others, but didn't know where you were. Still write to the others when I am away. Had some nice ones from Greenland I wanted to send. You would have enjoyed them. Large ones. Keep in touch now and then. A lot of people still ask for you. You were part of the old crowd. Some laughs back then, eh? Now, 50% of the blog is under water.


well i guess we'll have to get you my new address soon, and take care man! I will definitely drop by a lot more often!

Quoting JLPR2:


Got 3 exams this week and I haven't touched a single book yet, I'll be eating them later in the week. XD


haha wow man
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
827. justalurker
6:26 AM GMT on October 25, 2010
Dove vai..
Member Since: August 18, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 157

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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