Hurricane Richard bears down on Belize

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:35 PM GMT on October 24, 2010

Share this Blog
3
+

Data from an Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft confirms that Richard has intensified to hurricane strength, as it bears down on the coast of Belize. At 7:30am CST, the aircraft measured surface winds of 85 mph. Winds at their 5,000 foot flight level were 97 mph, qualifying Richard as the 10th hurricane of the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season. This year is now tied for sixth place for most hurricanes in an Atlantic hurricane season. This year's 17 named storms also ranks 6th most in history. Atlantic hurricane season records go back to 1851. Richard's center passed just north of the Honduras' Bay Islands this morning, bringing winds of 46 mph, gusting to 58 mph, to the Roatan Airport. Winds were clocked at 49 mph, gusting to 69 mph, at Calabash Bight on Roatan Island.

The latest 8am CST eye report from the Hurricane Hunters noted that Richard had formed a nearly complete eyewall, with a gap in the southwest side. Radar images from the Belize radar also showed this gap, but the gap closed at 9am CST, and Richard now has a complete eyewall, which will promote more rapid intensification. Recent satellite imagery shows a symmetrical, well-organized hurricane with respectable low level spiral banding, and upper level outflow improving in all quadrants. Richard has now walled itself off from the dry air to the storm's west, as seen on water vapor satellite loops.


Figure 1. The eye of Richard is very prominent in this radar image from the Belize radar taken at 9:15am CST 10/24/10. Image credit: Belize Meteorological Service.

Forecast for Richard
The latest set of 12am CST (6Z) model runs are in excellent agreement with Richard's track, taking the enter of the storm inland over Belize between 4pm - 9pm CST tonight. The latest radar animations from the Belize radar indicate that Belize City will experience a portion of the eyewall of Richard, and residents of Belize City can expect a 2 - 4 hour period of hurricane force winds to begin between 4pm - 6pm CST this evening. Tropical storm force winds of 39+ mph should arrive at the coast between 2pm - 4pm CST this afternoon. A good way to estimate these arrival times is using the wundermap with the "hurricane" layer turned on and the "wind radius" and "forecast" boxes checked. Richard is in a very favorable environment for intensification, with low wind shear between 5 - 10 knots, and warm water temperatures of 29 - 29.5°C. Given these conditions, and the fact that the eyewall is is now fully formed, Richard will probably undergo a period of rapid intensification that could take it to Category 2 strength with 100 mph winds at landfall this evening. Once inland, Richard's small size and relatively slow forward speed of 5 - 10 mph on Monday will lead to substantial weakening as it crosses the Yucatan Peninsula. The storm will probably be a tropical depression when it emerges over the Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday--if it survives the crossing. If Richard does survive the crossing, high wind shear over the Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday and Wednesday should keep the storm from intensifying. Richard should dissipate by Wednesday, before affecting any other land areas.

Invest 90L
A tropical wave (Invest 90L) centered 600 miles northwest of the Cape Verde Islands off the coast of Africa is encountering a very high 40 - 60 knots of wind shear. The shear is predicted to drop to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, Monday through Wednesday. This may give 90L the opportunity to develop, and the NOGAPS model is calling for 90L to develop into a tropical depression by mid-week. NHC is giving 90L a 10% of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday.

Next update
I'll have an update on Monday morning at the latest.

Our weather extremes expert Christopher C. Burt has a very interesting post today on the hottest temperatures ever measured on Earth.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 627 - 577

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18Blog Index

19L/H/R/C1
overland

WEAKENING FLAG OFF
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54434
Quoting oleClegs:
Storm report has basketball size hail reported in AL. Hope thats not possible.


Never heard of hail that big. Several reports of baseball size today though.

Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
AMERICAS: are lands in the Western hemisphere, also known as the New World, comprising the continents of North America and South America with their associated islands and regions. The plural form the Americas is often used in English, as the singular America is ambiguous: America is more commonly used to refer to the United States of America.[2][4] The Americas cover 8.3% of the Earth's total surface area (28.4% of its land area) and contain about 13.5% of the human population (about 900 million people).

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
621. beell


DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1229 PM CDT SUN OCT 24 2010

...NERN MO/ERN IA/SERN MN/SWRN WI/WRN/NWRN IL...
MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE RAPID ATMOSPHERIC MASS ADJUSTMENTS
TAKING PLACE MONDAY NIGHT AS THE STRONG UPPER JET SPREADS INTO THE
REGION...CONTRIBUTING TO INTENSE CYCLOGENESIS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
UPPER MS VALLEY DURING THIS PERIOD. 15 MB/12 HR SURFACE PRESSURE
FALLS ARE SUGGESTED TO OCCUR BETWEEN 26/00-12Z WITH 972 MB LOW
FORECAST TO BE LOCATED OVER EAST CENTRAL MN/NWRN WI BY 12Z TUESDAY...
Link

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA636 PM CDT SUN OCT 24 2010

...LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN ACTIVE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK AS STRONG SEGMENT OF THE EAJ SLAMS
INTO THE WRN CONUS AND BUCKLES. NEG TILT TROF AND IMPRESSIVE TROP
FOLD TAKING PLACE LATER MON NGT INTO TUE NGT...LEADING TO BOMB LOW
PRES DVLPMT TO THE N OF THE CWA. SIM TO CASES OF 01-02 NOV 1991 AND
10 NOV 1998 AND EXPECT TO SEE A SIG WIND EVENT OUT OF THIS FOR TUE.
HAVE GONE WITH A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR ABOUT THE NRN HLF OF THE
STATE...
Link

Tuesday NWS High Wind Watches-IA, IL, MN, SD, WI,
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting SaraGal:


SORRY -- the silent T is the preferred pronunciaton: [aw-fuhn, of-uhn; awf-tuhn] :)


Or should I say the "pwee-ferred pwonunciaiton"
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
619. JLPR2
Quoting Neapolitan:
--As of 11PM EDT, Richard's ACE has reached 4.1875, putting him into 9th place for the season; he's ahead of 10th place Lisa and just a bit behind 8th place Otto.

--Today marks the 22nd day this season that at least two full ACE units have been added, and the first time that's happened since October 13th.

--ACE for the season stands at 146.22; another 3.78 units will put seasonal ACE at 150, the number generally considered the threshhold for a season to be called "hyperactive".

--This year's ACE has now exceeded that accumulated during the 2008 season.


Once Nicole's report comes out the Ace count should get a little boost.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8735
CANADA,NORTH AMERICA
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54434
Grothar...You stole one of my luftballoons...I now have only 99.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Orcasystems:


Not if you know how to speak.
If the T is silent... your killing someone :)


SORRY -- the silent T is the preferred pronunciaton: [aw-fuhn, of-uhn; awf-tuhn] :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
--As of 11PM EDT, Richard's ACE has reached 4.1875, putting him into 9th place for the season; he's ahead of 10th place Lisa and just a bit behind 8th place Otto.

--Today marks the 22nd day this season that at least two full ACE units have been added, and the first time that's happened since October 13th.

--ACE for the season stands at 146.22; another 3.78 units will put seasonal ACE at 150, the number generally considered the threshhold for a season to be called "hyperactive".

--This year's ACE has now exceeded that accumulated during the 2008 season.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13556
Quoting JLPR2

Explore the main link of that animation

Link

for your bookmark database...


http://www.atmos.washington.edu/data/data.php?loc=satellite
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
knew it wouldnt last long, Richy's eye starting to fade.

Link Heres a link
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
612. JLPR2
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


ACTUALLY CENTRAL Americans.
there are three you know that right


North Americans,Central Americans,South Americans.


That's a nice point! :D
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8735
knew it wouldnt last long, Richy's eye starting to fade.
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
Quoting KerryInNOLA:
Why didn't you know, they are Americans. I was lectured on this subject by several pumpkin headed members of this blog last PM


ACTUALLY CENTRAL Americans.
there are three you know that right


North Americans,Central Americans,South Americans.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54434
What's up with ASCAT?
Member Since: September 9, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 3414
608. JLPR2
Quoting sunlinepr:
Make your own analysis with this animated link

Link



Neat link!
Seems to be doing what I said already but its too slow, I don't think Richard will meet it.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8735
607. mbjjm
Eye of Richard approaching Belize Capital Belmopan.


Live radio from Belize












Member Since: August 23, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 310
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Don't see that to off-ten:



Seems to be happening oftener these days.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26515
604. JLPR2
Quoting KerryInNOLA:
Why didn't you know, they are Americans. I was lectured on this subject by several pumpkin headed members of this blog last PM


Yeah they are Americans the same as you, but they aren't North-Americans.

But you guys like to call yourself Americans so eh... I have never understood clearly the reason behind it, but really... who cares? XD
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8735
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Getting some good ran out of this:

lol..Looks like a red string over you..Richards eye on the shortwave...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
theyre reporting 110 MPH Wind Gusts in Belize
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
so Richard maintains 90 MPH
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
Quoting scott39:
Not to good! How about you? Ive got the measels at 40 years old.


Ouch! Really sorry to hear that! Not a good thing to have at any age. Thought everyone got shots for that!
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26515
10:00 PM CDT Sun Oct 24
Location: 17.3°N 88.6°W
Max sustained: 90 mph
Moving: WNW at 9 mph
Min pressure: 981 mb
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
Getting some good ran out of this:

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
i think i just crashed the NHC site by pressing F5 over and over and over and over
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
Quoting oleClegs:



Havoc from south of Fort Worth to northern Ky right now, storm report loaded, I saw the meso warnings this morning and didnt pay much attention until I noticed it exploading in IR off the LSU site while updating myself on Richard.
Dewpoint as high as 75 in SE LA. This time of year, that means *someone* is getting it on...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Wow! Eye cleared out nicely after landfall!
And it is clearing out even more...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Make your own analysis with this animated link

Link

Quoting JLPR2:


If it heads northwest I think the biggest effect it could have would be moistening the Caribbean.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Don't see that to off-ten:

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting pilotguy1:


Ding dong, hardly not possible.
lol..Could you imagine basketball sized hail? Giant ice balls movin at 120 could put a few dings on the cars new paint job aye..?lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Sorry to read that Scott. Take care of yourself.
Thanks, Oatmeal baths are the only relief. I should have got this when I was a kid. It would have been alot easier. LOL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting JFLORIDA:
Heads up Tyler.

looks like some of my relatives are getting pumbled by that T Storm Cell nearing Tyler
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
Wow! Eye cleared out nicely after landfall!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Can I get a Sat Loop of Our Yucatan Trucker.
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
584. JLPR2
Quoting sunlinepr:
Seems like the moisture from that SA big wave moving NW, is going to feed or ventilate Richard.... if it keeps alive.....



If it heads northwest I think the biggest effect it could have would be moistening the Caribbean.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8735
Quoting sunlinepr:
Seems like the moisture from that SA big wave moving NW, is going to feed or ventilate Richard.... if it keeps alive.....

yeah, although it being that far out it wont really matter
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
Sorry to read that Scott. Take care of yourself.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
581. JLPR2
Quoting Seastep:


My bad, I see that you did post in-sync images.

But, SSD vs. radar doesn't look the same, imo.


SSD sucks... LOL
They take so long to update and sometimes after it updates it goes back to a previous image, so now I prefer the NASA images. XD

But it would be weird if the eye isn't in the same place since there aren't any dry spots in the convection.... yet.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8735
Quoting Grothar:
looks like the eyewall is reintensifying with convection again too.
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
564. JLPR2

See 570 and my edit. :)
Member Since: September 9, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 3414
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


No Scott. Sorry.
I must be looking at those colored wind shear forecast maps wrong then. I see the GOM going from blue and yellow to more oranges and reds.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 627 - 577

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Overcast
50 °F
Overcast