Hurricane Richard bears down on Belize

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:35 PM GMT on October 24, 2010

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Data from an Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft confirms that Richard has intensified to hurricane strength, as it bears down on the coast of Belize. At 7:30am CST, the aircraft measured surface winds of 85 mph. Winds at their 5,000 foot flight level were 97 mph, qualifying Richard as the 10th hurricane of the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season. This year is now tied for sixth place for most hurricanes in an Atlantic hurricane season. This year's 17 named storms also ranks 6th most in history. Atlantic hurricane season records go back to 1851. Richard's center passed just north of the Honduras' Bay Islands this morning, bringing winds of 46 mph, gusting to 58 mph, to the Roatan Airport. Winds were clocked at 49 mph, gusting to 69 mph, at Calabash Bight on Roatan Island.

The latest 8am CST eye report from the Hurricane Hunters noted that Richard had formed a nearly complete eyewall, with a gap in the southwest side. Radar images from the Belize radar also showed this gap, but the gap closed at 9am CST, and Richard now has a complete eyewall, which will promote more rapid intensification. Recent satellite imagery shows a symmetrical, well-organized hurricane with respectable low level spiral banding, and upper level outflow improving in all quadrants. Richard has now walled itself off from the dry air to the storm's west, as seen on water vapor satellite loops.


Figure 1. The eye of Richard is very prominent in this radar image from the Belize radar taken at 9:15am CST 10/24/10. Image credit: Belize Meteorological Service.

Forecast for Richard
The latest set of 12am CST (6Z) model runs are in excellent agreement with Richard's track, taking the enter of the storm inland over Belize between 4pm - 9pm CST tonight. The latest radar animations from the Belize radar indicate that Belize City will experience a portion of the eyewall of Richard, and residents of Belize City can expect a 2 - 4 hour period of hurricane force winds to begin between 4pm - 6pm CST this evening. Tropical storm force winds of 39+ mph should arrive at the coast between 2pm - 4pm CST this afternoon. A good way to estimate these arrival times is using the wundermap with the "hurricane" layer turned on and the "wind radius" and "forecast" boxes checked. Richard is in a very favorable environment for intensification, with low wind shear between 5 - 10 knots, and warm water temperatures of 29 - 29.5°C. Given these conditions, and the fact that the eyewall is is now fully formed, Richard will probably undergo a period of rapid intensification that could take it to Category 2 strength with 100 mph winds at landfall this evening. Once inland, Richard's small size and relatively slow forward speed of 5 - 10 mph on Monday will lead to substantial weakening as it crosses the Yucatan Peninsula. The storm will probably be a tropical depression when it emerges over the Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday--if it survives the crossing. If Richard does survive the crossing, high wind shear over the Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday and Wednesday should keep the storm from intensifying. Richard should dissipate by Wednesday, before affecting any other land areas.

Invest 90L
A tropical wave (Invest 90L) centered 600 miles northwest of the Cape Verde Islands off the coast of Africa is encountering a very high 40 - 60 knots of wind shear. The shear is predicted to drop to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, Monday through Wednesday. This may give 90L the opportunity to develop, and the NOGAPS model is calling for 90L to develop into a tropical depression by mid-week. NHC is giving 90L a 10% of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday.

Next update
I'll have an update on Monday morning at the latest.

Our weather extremes expert Christopher C. Burt has a very interesting post today on the hottest temperatures ever measured on Earth.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
time for bed lights out


No, Sundays we can stay up late and watch episodes of the Golden Girls. One can still hope!!!!
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Nite all not feeling well.......see you all tomorrow. At least i hope so......LOL NIte!
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Destroyed Mississippi gulf coast Highway I-90 as a result of winds and tidal surge from Hurricane Katrina.
Source: http://www.katrinadestruction.com/images/v/hurricane/

Pass Christian, Ms., October 4, 2005
Date: 10/04/2005
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Quoting Patrap:


Both linesmen were from Pittsburgh,,both signaled TD.

Go fig-ya


That was horrible.........why the heck is the NFL setting themselves up with Refs. doing games that they have some relationship with...Stupid.
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Quoting TampaSpin:


We was lucky.....YOur Saints i believe is the best team in the NFC especially once Reggie gets back.


Reggie may be back Sunday Night for "Boo Dat 2010"


We took a Hit letting Scott Fujita go to Cleveland,,he had a INT and a Sack.
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Quoting Grothar:


Are they Americans, I mean North Americans? They have odd accents. One sounds like a French guy trying to sing with a Southern accent.


I would not allow them on NPR.
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Quoting beell:
00Z GFS with a sub-970mb surface low over the upper midwest and Canada on Tuesday evening.


Link
gales of november come early

with that iam out
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54372
Quoting Grothar:


Did you see that bad call against the Dolphins? Think the ref was from Pittsburg. Really bad call.


Both linesmen were from Pittsburgh,,both signaled TD.

Go fig-ya
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Quoting Grothar:


Are they Americans, I mean North Americans? They have odd accents. One sounds like a French guy trying to sing with a Southern accent.
time for bed lights out
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54372
Quoting Patrap:


Thanx..

Im in Saints/Cleveland Shock still..

But the twitching has stopped.

Some.


Did you see that bad call against the Dolphins? Think the ref was from Pittsburg. Really bad call.
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Quoting Patrap:
They were peeking ahead to the Steelers come next Sunday Halloween TS.

4-3 in the NFC is the new norm.

Tampa squeaked one out we saw too.


We was lucky.....YOur Saints i believe is the best team in the NFC especially once Reggie gets back.
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Full Conus view

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iam out as well later all see ya at sunrise
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54372
711. flsky
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
It is pouring down here in my little part of the world!


Can you send some of that up to Daytona? Please....
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710. beell
00Z GFS with a sub-970mb surface low over the upper midwest and Canada on Tuesday evening.


Link
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They were peeking ahead to the Steelers come next Sunday Halloween TS.

4-3 in the NFC is the new norm.

Tampa squeaked one out we saw too.
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Quoting Patrap:


Thanx..

Im in Saints/Cleveland Shock still..

But the twitching has stopped.

Some.


You beat me to the punch by 30sec. I can't believe what happened to the Saints today the way they beat up the Bucs last week.
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Who are these people?



Are they Americans, I mean North Americans? They have odd accents. One sounds like a French guy trying to sing with a Southern accent.
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Quoting Grothar:


Sorry, Pat, didn't know you were on. I posted the "dynamic" models in your stead.


Thanx..

Im in Saints/Cleveland Shock still..

But the twitching has stopped.

Some.
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Quoting Patrap:


Sorry, Pat, didn't know you were on. I posted the "dynamic" models in your stead.
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Belize ZOOMED WunderMap®
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Who are these people?

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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
What's going on Tim? What happened?


Got some Medical issues going on that is hitting me hard. Stupid stuff when i played Baseball that i did is now haunting me bad.
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Quoting TampaSpin:


Why thank you Brother Groth. So happy to be in your Dreams......LOL


Now THAT is scary! LOl.

Tell, Geoff to get a new PC, he won't have so much trouble. If happens to often.
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Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54372
693. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #5
TROPICAL STORM KATRING (CHABA)
11:00 AM PhST October 25 2010
=====================================

Tropical Storm "KATRING"" has intensified as it continues to move a north northwestward direction.

At 10:00 AM PhST, Tropical Storm Katring (Chaba) located at 16.9°N 130.6°E or810 km east of northern Luzon has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north northwest at 3 knots

Additional Information
=======================
This weather disturbance is still far to affect any part of the country.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin alert to be issued at 11 p.m. today.

Updates on TS "KATRING" will be included in the 5 p.m. Weather Forecast today.
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692. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #40
TROPICAL STORM CHABA (T1014)
12:00 PM JST October 25 2010
=================================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon In Sea East Of The Philippines

At 3:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Chaba (990 hPa) located at 17.0N 130.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts of 65 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north slowly

Dvorak Intensity:

Gale Force Winds
================
140 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 19.0N 129.2E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm)
45 HRS: 20.4N 128.8E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm)
69 HRS: 22.9N 129.0E - 65 knots (CAT 3/Typhoon)
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What's going on Tim? What happened?
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Quoting TampaSpin:
Richard seems to be feeling the Trough to its north and is being yanked north some IMO


You think it will hit Florida (Come on Tim, you can't leave a line like that alone) LOL
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Quoting Grothar:


Why do you always have to post these scary things, right when they are getting ready to put me to bed?


Why thank you Brother Groth. So happy to be in your Dreams......LOL
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Quoting oleClegs:


How bout them melons!!!
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54372
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Tim...That link connects me back to the blog.



GFS LONG RANGE .......sorry MEDS FROM THE PAIN im in......sorry
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Belize WunderMap®
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Quoting AEKDB1990:
I wonder if the disparity in tornado counts between the USA and the tropics when hurricanes make landfall is that no one is looking for evidence of them. And at night, no one would see them unless they happen to hit a town.
SSG that you?
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Dvorak Image

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Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:
650. sunlinepr 11:21 PM EDT on October 24, 2010

Source??


Just looked on my menu for the history of links and I noticed the source..... man, discard it

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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:




Posted 25 July 2010 - 07:11 PM

Hoosier, on 25 July 2010 - 06:50 PM, said:

I'd love to see that in a warning...


"...THE PUBLIC REPORTED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING CATASTROPHIC HAIL UP TO BASKETBALL SIZE..."


How bout them melons!!!
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680. JLPR2
Quoting sunlinepr:
Yap, I read that... But what i mean, is that they aren't as powerfull, frequent and constant as in the Conus...




Ah! I see, yeah.
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Richard seems to be feeling the Trough to its north and is being yanked north some IMO
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Quoting TampaSpin:
The GFS Long range sure make a very strong storm coming into the Western Caribbean again.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Tim...That link connects me back to the blog.


Is the 00z run complete? I just looked at e-wall and navy and it doesn't look right.
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Quoting oleClegs:


grapefruit or softball yeah, basketball - no way




Posted 25 July 2010 - 07:11 PM

Hoosier, on 25 July 2010 - 06:50 PM, said:

I'd love to see that in a warning...


"...THE PUBLIC REPORTED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING CATASTROPHIC HAIL UP TO BASKETBALL SIZE..."
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54372

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.