Hurricane Richard bears down on Belize

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:35 PM GMT on October 24, 2010

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Data from an Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft confirms that Richard has intensified to hurricane strength, as it bears down on the coast of Belize. At 7:30am CST, the aircraft measured surface winds of 85 mph. Winds at their 5,000 foot flight level were 97 mph, qualifying Richard as the 10th hurricane of the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season. This year is now tied for sixth place for most hurricanes in an Atlantic hurricane season. This year's 17 named storms also ranks 6th most in history. Atlantic hurricane season records go back to 1851. Richard's center passed just north of the Honduras' Bay Islands this morning, bringing winds of 46 mph, gusting to 58 mph, to the Roatan Airport. Winds were clocked at 49 mph, gusting to 69 mph, at Calabash Bight on Roatan Island.

The latest 8am CST eye report from the Hurricane Hunters noted that Richard had formed a nearly complete eyewall, with a gap in the southwest side. Radar images from the Belize radar also showed this gap, but the gap closed at 9am CST, and Richard now has a complete eyewall, which will promote more rapid intensification. Recent satellite imagery shows a symmetrical, well-organized hurricane with respectable low level spiral banding, and upper level outflow improving in all quadrants. Richard has now walled itself off from the dry air to the storm's west, as seen on water vapor satellite loops.


Figure 1. The eye of Richard is very prominent in this radar image from the Belize radar taken at 9:15am CST 10/24/10. Image credit: Belize Meteorological Service.

Forecast for Richard
The latest set of 12am CST (6Z) model runs are in excellent agreement with Richard's track, taking the enter of the storm inland over Belize between 4pm - 9pm CST tonight. The latest radar animations from the Belize radar indicate that Belize City will experience a portion of the eyewall of Richard, and residents of Belize City can expect a 2 - 4 hour period of hurricane force winds to begin between 4pm - 6pm CST this evening. Tropical storm force winds of 39+ mph should arrive at the coast between 2pm - 4pm CST this afternoon. A good way to estimate these arrival times is using the wundermap with the "hurricane" layer turned on and the "wind radius" and "forecast" boxes checked. Richard is in a very favorable environment for intensification, with low wind shear between 5 - 10 knots, and warm water temperatures of 29 - 29.5°C. Given these conditions, and the fact that the eyewall is is now fully formed, Richard will probably undergo a period of rapid intensification that could take it to Category 2 strength with 100 mph winds at landfall this evening. Once inland, Richard's small size and relatively slow forward speed of 5 - 10 mph on Monday will lead to substantial weakening as it crosses the Yucatan Peninsula. The storm will probably be a tropical depression when it emerges over the Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday--if it survives the crossing. If Richard does survive the crossing, high wind shear over the Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday and Wednesday should keep the storm from intensifying. Richard should dissipate by Wednesday, before affecting any other land areas.

Invest 90L
A tropical wave (Invest 90L) centered 600 miles northwest of the Cape Verde Islands off the coast of Africa is encountering a very high 40 - 60 knots of wind shear. The shear is predicted to drop to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, Monday through Wednesday. This may give 90L the opportunity to develop, and the NOGAPS model is calling for 90L to develop into a tropical depression by mid-week. NHC is giving 90L a 10% of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday.

Next update
I'll have an update on Monday morning at the latest.

Our weather extremes expert Christopher C. Burt has a very interesting post today on the hottest temperatures ever measured on Earth.

Jeff Masters

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Dove vai..
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826. JLPR2
Quoting Grothar:
Got to go guys. You all take care, and TD you better drop by more, ya hear. THAT'S AN ORDER!

Take care guys, and Geoff, if you are still on, we don't hear from you often enough!

Nite guys.


Buonanotte!
I'm learning some basic words, huzzah! XD
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825. JLPR2
Quoting tornadodude:


quite nice!

how's school for you?


Got 3 exams this week and I haven't touched a single book yet, I'll be eating them later in the week. XD
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.
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Quoting JLPR2:


I'll give you that one.
The atmosphere is nice here. :D


quite nice!

how's school for you?
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<.
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821. JLPR2
Quoting tornadodude:


haha buttttttttt, it is troll free :D


I'll give you that one.
The atmosphere is nice here. :D
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820. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
219
TCNA21 RJTD 250600
CCAA 25060 47644 CHABA(1014) 18174 11305 13344 235// 93306=

October 25 2010, 0600z
Severe Tropical Storm Chaba (STS 18)
17.4N 130.5E
Dvorak Intensity: T3.5
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819. JLPR2


Richard steadily weakening and unless he accelerates there might not be much emerging into the GOM, small storms weaken faster than bigger ones.
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Quoting JLPR2:
Well we have kept the blog moving and friendly but we are horribly off topic. LOL! :|


haha buttttttttt, it is troll free :D
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817. JLPR2
Well we have kept the blog moving and friendly but we are horribly off topic. LOL! :|
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Quoting Grothar:


OK, so I was a few weeks off. LOL Just for that, no Urge for you this year. By the way, I am still in contact with Halvor in Norway. Now the entire Royal Family is drinking it, probably because of you. Do you remember??


haha close enough!

its sooo good, I cant blame them!

and of course I remember, I still have your post cards from various places as well
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.
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Quoting tornadodude:


most likely



Jan 9th (;

haha yeah the military has its benefits for sure, so I will definitely take all aspects into consideration, also Hurricane Hunting could become an option


OK, so I was a few weeks off. LOL Just for that, no Urge for you this year. By the way, I am still in contact with Halvor in Norway. Now the entire Royal Family is drinking it, probably because of you. Do you remember??
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813. JLPR2
Quoting Grothar:


That is the advantage of being multi-lingual. LOL You can insult people and they never know it. Been guilty of it myself.


Oh I'll be yelling in Italian a lot.
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.
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811. JLPR2
Quoting Grothar:


Don't laugh, but I speak Italian with a thick Spanish accent. Don't know why really, and I have not Spanish background at all.


I wont laugh...
I guess we are just weird. LOL!

And I basically learned more English from Cartoon and this blog than from the teachers at school. XD
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Quoting geepy86:
do it


most likely

Quoting Grothar:


You'll be what, 20 around December 17 or something. You have plenty of time. Talk to people who are in or were in to gain a better perspective. And remember that pension for life and the Post Exchange and the free meals and free insurance. LOL You will probably breeze more through the military than civilian life, but it is a noble profession.


Jan 9th (;

haha yeah the military has its benefits for sure, so I will definitely take all aspects into consideration, also Hurricane Hunting could become an option
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Quoting tornadodude:


yeah I understand that, but Im at a point where I want to do something


You'll be what, 20 around December 17 or something. You have plenty of time. Talk to people who are in or were in to gain a better perspective. And remember that pension for life and the Post Exchange and the free meals and free insurance. LOL You will probably breeze more through the military than civilian life, but it is a noble profession.
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808. JLPR2
Quoting Grothar:


You should not have problem at all. If you want a hint, just get a Spanish grammar book and an Italian grammar book and compare the verb declensions. Then just substitute one for the other. You would be suprised in the similarity. This trick will cut your learning time in half. You know 70% of the words are almost identical, but just learn the differences and you are home free.


True many similarities, there are times where I kinda get what it means because it sounds so similar.
But since I want to fluently speak and write it I'm taking ITA I and ITA II, two semesters and I'm actually looking forward to it, arrg! My third year needs to start already! XD

Besides I will be able to insult my neighbors and they wont even know. LOL!
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Quoting tornadodude:


yeah I understand that, but Im at a point where I want to do something
do it
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Quoting Grothar:


Hey, if I were your age, I would have done a lot more breezing than I did. Didn't have the chance. Don't rush life, it does well enough on its own. Enjoy it while you can.


yeah I understand that, but Im at a point where I want to do something
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Quoting tornadodude:


haha you turned out fine,

and Im ready for something challenging, getting sick of just breezing through life and not really getting anywhere out of it


Hey, if I were your age, I would have done a lot more breezing than I did. Didn't have the chance. Don't rush life, it does well enough on its own. Enjoy it while you can.
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Quoting JLPR2:


Bene! :]

I'm not even sure why I'm so obsessed with the language, no heritage what so ever from there, I don't have any friends that speak it, the idea and motivation surged out of nowhere.
And the pronunciation just comes so naturally to me, grammatically, well... XD

That is an interesting coincidence since my main language is Spanish...


Don't laugh, but I speak Italian with a thick Spanish accent. Don't know why really, and I have not Spanish background at all.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting JLPR2:


Bene! :]

I'm not even sure why I'm so obsessed with the language, no heritage what so ever from there, I don't have any friends that speak it, the idea and motivation surged out of nowhere.
And the pronunciation just comes so neutrally to me, grammatically, well... XD

That is an interesting coincidence since my main language is Spanish...


You should not have problem at all. If you want a hint, just get a Spanish grammar book and an Italian grammar book and compare the verb declensions. Then just substitute one for the other. You would be suprised in the similarity. This trick will cut your learning time in half. You know 70% of the words are almost identical, but just learn the differences and you are home free.
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802. xcool




maker 6 time shows snow for southeast all way down south.
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801. JLPR2
Quoting Grothar:


Credo che ci siano alcuni che parlano l'italiano qui.

Anytime! Don't speak it much any more since my mom passed away. Most of the Italian speakers in the family have mostly passed. Funny, she alway spoke to me in Italian and Spanish, but quite often spoke to my other brothers in sisters in German or Norwegian. I never really thought about it until recently. Strange you should bring that up tonight.


Bene! :]

I'm not even sure why I'm so obsessed with the language, no heritage what so ever from there, I don't have any friends that speak it, the idea and motivation surged out of nowhere.
And the pronunciation just comes so naturally to me, grammatically, well... XD

That is an interesting coincidence since my main language is Spanish...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Grothar:


Matt, not a bad decision. The time goes by faster than you think. The military is not a bad life, difficult at times, far more rewards than detriments. Look what it did for me. (OK, bad example) That would be a great thing. You know, the Air Force is the gentleman's service. Not a bad deal.


haha you turned out fine,

and Im ready for something challenging, getting sick of just breezing through life and not really getting anywhere out of it
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Quoting tornadodude:


oh right on,

I am leaning pretty heavily towards joining




Matt, not a bad decision. The time goes by faster than you think. The military is not a bad life, difficult at times, far more rewards than detriments. Look what it did for me. (OK, bad example) That would be a great thing. You know, the Air Force is the gentleman's service. Not a bad deal.
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Quoting JLPR2:


Grazie Dio! :]
Non pensare che avera qualcuno che parlare italiano.

I'll bug you more than usual next year XD and that sentence probably has more errors than Jason has accounts. LOL!


Credo che ci siano alcuni che parlano l'italiano qui.

Anytime! Don't speak it much any more since my mom passed away. Most of the Italian speakers in the family have mostly passed. Funny, she alway spoke to me in Italian and Spanish, but quite often spoke to my other brothers in sisters in German or Norwegian. I never really thought about it until recently. Strange you should bring that up tonight.
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Quoting JLPR2:


ha! XD
I got a friend who joined the Air force he's at Texas I believe.


oh right on,

I am leaning pretty heavily towards joining


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796. JLPR2
Quoting tornadodude:
JLPR2,
I took this semester off from school, plan on going back next semester, also contemplating the Air Force, so yeah ha


ha! XD
I got a friend who joined the Air force he's at Texas I believe.
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The air force is good if you want to be a lifer.
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Quoting geepy86:
Dude good to hear from you I'm just hanging.


sounds like a good plan lol
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Dude good to hear from you I'm just hanging.
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792. JLPR2
Quoting Grothar:


Sì, che cosa vuoi?


Grazie Dio! :]
Non pensare che avera qualcuno che parlare italiano.

I'll bug you more than usual next year XD and that sentence probably has more errors than Jason has accounts. LOL!
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Quoting alfabob:
Richard had a decent core about 3 hours ago, don't know about now though. Could be under there somewhere.






Maintained itself quite well for a long time, though. Still has excellent structure.

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haha yeah, Grothar I do, saving it for who knows when ha

JLPR2,
I took this semester off from school, plan on going back next semester, also contemplating the Air Force, so yeah ha

Good to see you Geoff, how you been?


doing well geepy, yourself?
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Quoting JLPR2:
Anyone know any Italian?
I'll need someone to practice come August. :]


S, che cosa vuoi? Dove stai andando?
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Quoting tornadodude:
howdy guys


Dude!!! Thought you moved to Cambodia or something. Still got that last bottle waiting??
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784. JLPR2
Quoting tornadodude:
howdy guys


Hiya! How's college treating you?
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Long time no see Matt!
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782. JLPR2
Anyone know any Italian?
I'll need someone to practice with come August. :]
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dodue how's it going?
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howdy guys
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Quoting Grothar:


Have you studied any other languages?
No
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Quoting SuperTyphoonLionrock:



That is Dead Kennedys and the footage from the Bohemian Grove


Dead Kennedy's. Sounds family oriented.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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