Hurricane Richard bears down on Belize

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:35 PM GMT on October 24, 2010

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Data from an Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft confirms that Richard has intensified to hurricane strength, as it bears down on the coast of Belize. At 7:30am CST, the aircraft measured surface winds of 85 mph. Winds at their 5,000 foot flight level were 97 mph, qualifying Richard as the 10th hurricane of the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season. This year is now tied for sixth place for most hurricanes in an Atlantic hurricane season. This year's 17 named storms also ranks 6th most in history. Atlantic hurricane season records go back to 1851. Richard's center passed just north of the Honduras' Bay Islands this morning, bringing winds of 46 mph, gusting to 58 mph, to the Roatan Airport. Winds were clocked at 49 mph, gusting to 69 mph, at Calabash Bight on Roatan Island.

The latest 8am CST eye report from the Hurricane Hunters noted that Richard had formed a nearly complete eyewall, with a gap in the southwest side. Radar images from the Belize radar also showed this gap, but the gap closed at 9am CST, and Richard now has a complete eyewall, which will promote more rapid intensification. Recent satellite imagery shows a symmetrical, well-organized hurricane with respectable low level spiral banding, and upper level outflow improving in all quadrants. Richard has now walled itself off from the dry air to the storm's west, as seen on water vapor satellite loops.


Figure 1. The eye of Richard is very prominent in this radar image from the Belize radar taken at 9:15am CST 10/24/10. Image credit: Belize Meteorological Service.

Forecast for Richard
The latest set of 12am CST (6Z) model runs are in excellent agreement with Richard's track, taking the enter of the storm inland over Belize between 4pm - 9pm CST tonight. The latest radar animations from the Belize radar indicate that Belize City will experience a portion of the eyewall of Richard, and residents of Belize City can expect a 2 - 4 hour period of hurricane force winds to begin between 4pm - 6pm CST this evening. Tropical storm force winds of 39+ mph should arrive at the coast between 2pm - 4pm CST this afternoon. A good way to estimate these arrival times is using the wundermap with the "hurricane" layer turned on and the "wind radius" and "forecast" boxes checked. Richard is in a very favorable environment for intensification, with low wind shear between 5 - 10 knots, and warm water temperatures of 29 - 29.5°C. Given these conditions, and the fact that the eyewall is is now fully formed, Richard will probably undergo a period of rapid intensification that could take it to Category 2 strength with 100 mph winds at landfall this evening. Once inland, Richard's small size and relatively slow forward speed of 5 - 10 mph on Monday will lead to substantial weakening as it crosses the Yucatan Peninsula. The storm will probably be a tropical depression when it emerges over the Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday--if it survives the crossing. If Richard does survive the crossing, high wind shear over the Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday and Wednesday should keep the storm from intensifying. Richard should dissipate by Wednesday, before affecting any other land areas.

Invest 90L
A tropical wave (Invest 90L) centered 600 miles northwest of the Cape Verde Islands off the coast of Africa is encountering a very high 40 - 60 knots of wind shear. The shear is predicted to drop to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, Monday through Wednesday. This may give 90L the opportunity to develop, and the NOGAPS model is calling for 90L to develop into a tropical depression by mid-week. NHC is giving 90L a 10% of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday.

Next update
I'll have an update on Monday morning at the latest.

Our weather extremes expert Christopher C. Burt has a very interesting post today on the hottest temperatures ever measured on Earth.

Jeff Masters

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Richard.

Funny, 5 years ago almost to date that little island was under the eye of a hurricane. Wilma.
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276. mbjjm
Live radio from Belize



Link
Member Since: August 23, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 310
273. mbjjm
Live tv coverage from Belize

Channel 5 Belize
Member Since: August 23, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 310
Quoting JLPR2:
I just noticed something, the area the GFS develops into a storm in the Caribbean slams into Brazil (yeah Brazil!) on the CMC. XD LOL!

Also the GFS is showing 90L developing into something minor and a system to the north of PR.

So the last run of the GFS only leaves the V storm name available.
The CMC is one Jacked Up Model! lol
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
Here's an almost meaningless stat, but it might be interesting to some of the other weather nerds out there:

In 2005, the 'R' storm--Rita--was also the tenth hurricane of the season. Prior to that, there'd been four hurricanes that topped out at Cat 1, one at Cat 2, one at Cat 3, two at Cat 4, and two at Cat 5. By comparison, 2010 has had three Cat 1 hurricanes (counting Richard), two at Cat 2, one at Cat 3, and four at Cat 4. That means, of course, that 2005, like 2010, had 7 tropical storms by the time 'R' was reached (though 2010 had one extra TC by then, with two TDs that didn't make it, contrasted with 2005's one by that point). [FWIW, 2005's fifth major didn't come until the 17th named storm; 2010 reached five majors with only the 11th.]
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13537
269. IKE
Belize, BH (Airport)
Updated: 17 min 57 sec ago
Light Rain Showers
75 °F
Light Showers Rain
Humidity: 94%
Dew Point: 73 °F
Wind: 18 mph from the North
Pressure: 29.73 in (Falling)
Visibility: 6.2 miles
UV: 3 out of 16
Clouds:
Mostly Cloudy 300 ft
Scattered Clouds 1600 ft
Mostly Cloudy 4000 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 16 ft
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Quoting Seastep:


Sorry, have to get this in.

Wow is all I can say.

The graphs represent the same exact thing, yet the appearance you are trying to (or maybe actually by into) is that there was some huge downward revision using two different months, Jan 2010 and Jul 2010, as the endpoint.

Please show before and after out to the same period. No change, really.

That is pure propaganda folks, at its best. Using actual fact to manipulate thought.

Of course, using through Sep 2010 wouldn't have had the desired affect.

I am out for a while.


You sound reasonable. It must be time to up my medication!
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Quoting shikori:
NW it seems
it seems? it is... If you look at the center fixes, it's jogging to Northwest. HERES RICHY! prepare Belize City! RICHY'S COMING FOR YOU! lol
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
thats a good thing waking up


Yeah, but knowing where you are when you wake up helps, too. Anything new, or are people still arguing?
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26151
that means your still here
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 171 Comments: 53844
Quoting Grothar:


TSK TSK. Just woke up from my nap.
thats a good thing waking up
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 171 Comments: 53844
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Lisa and Otto were both Category 1's.


Yeah, I've already been corrected on that front. But thanks. ;)

Admittedly, this incident does somewhat shame me, since I consider myself rather fluent in regards to Atlantic hurricane history.
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Quoting AEKDB1990:
How Spencer's revision early this year changed the climate graph.





Sorry, have to get this in.

Wow is all I can say.

The graphs represent the same exact same thing, yet the appearance you are trying to (or maybe actually buy into) is that there was some huge downward revision using two different months, Jan 2010 and Jul 2010, as the endpoint.

Please show before and after out to the same period. No change, really.

That is pure propaganda folks, at its best. Using actual fact to manipulate thought.

Of course, using through Sep 2010 wouldn't have had the desired affect.

I am out for a while.
Member Since: September 9, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 3414
260. JLPR2
I just noticed something, the area the GFS develops into a storm in the Caribbean slams into Brazil (yeah Brazil!) on the CMC. XD LOL!

Also the GFS is showing 90L developing into something minor and a system to the north of PR.

So the last run of the GFS only leaves the V storm name available.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8698
HurricaneRichard's heading had turned westward to (10.7degrees west of) WestNorthWest from its previous heading of (3.3degrees west of) WestNorthWest
H.Richard's average speed moving between its last 2 reported positions had decreased to ~11.3mph(~18.4km/h) from its previous travel speed of ~14mph(~22.5km/h)
TropicalStormRichard
23Oct 09pmGMT - 16.1n84.2w - 65mph(~104.5km/h) - 1000mb - #12
24Oct 12amGMT - 16.2n84.4w - 65mph(~104.5km/h) - 1000mb - #12A
24Oct 03amGMT - 16.3n84.6w - 70mph(~112.6km/h) - - 995mb - #13
24Oct 06amGMT - 16.4n85.1w - 70mph(~112.6km/h) - - 995mb - NHC.Adv.#13A
24Oct 09amGMT - 16.5n85.5w - 70mph(~112.6km/h) - - 995mb - #14
24Oct 12pmGMT - 16.8n86.4w - 70mph(~112.6km/h) - - 990mb - #14A
HurricaneRichard
24Oct 03pmGMT - 16.9n86.9w - 85mph(~136.8km/h) - - 991mb - #15
24Oct 06pmGMT - 17.1n87.5w - 85mph(~136.8km/h) - - 988mb - #15A
24Oct 09pmGMT - 17.2n88.0w - 90mph(~144.8km/h) - - 9.81mb - #16

Copy&paste 16.1n84.2w, 16.2n84.4w, 16.3n84.6w, 16.4n85.1w, 16.5n85.5w-16.8n86.4w, 16.8n86.4w-16.9n86.9w, 16.9n86.9w-17.1n87.5w, 17.1n87.5w-17.2n88.0w, pnd, 17.2n88.0w-17.26n88.3w into the GreatCircleMapper for a look at the headings and distances travelled over the last 12^hours.
Using straightline projection upon the speed&heading averaged
over the 3hours spanning the last two reported positions:
~1 hour from now to WesternLagoon between MullinsRiver and BelizeCity,Belize
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
x


TSK TSK. Just woke up from my nap.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26151
The TWO is saying richard is moving faster than expected. which would mean less time over land and then when it emerges it says it should slow down.
I predict that Richard will be down graded to a tropical storm at the 11, and survive the yucatan as a weak tropical storm and then after maintaining the same strength it will weaken due to shear and die on Tuesday night.
Another thing to watch later this week is a subtropical system that will likely become Shary before a few days later getting absorbed by a trough.
Tomas is also predicted in the Caribbean In two weaks.
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
Quoting KoritheMan:


I've often wondered if the season will end with all hurricanes at Category 2 strength or greater. If it does, I'm not quite sure when that last occurred in the historical record, if it did so at all.
Lisa and Otto were both Category 1's.
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Quoting KoritheMan:


...Wow, you're right. I somehow completely forgot about that.


Even so, that still raises the question if such an event has ever occurred in the historical record.
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Quoting Neapolitan:

But both Lisa and Otto were only Cat 1 storms, were they not? Or arte you just asking if that's ever happened?


...Wow, you're right. I somehow completely forgot about that.
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Quoting Neapolitan:

The only thing laughable is that graph in post 174. People familiar with science understand that when looking at trends, one can't cherry pick a particular anomalous measurement--in this instance 1998--and make the case that a trend in either direction is happening. Here's another chart--from those master manipulators at the NOAA--that goes back to 1880. Quick: show the "cooling trend" from 1998 to now...

Click for larger image:

Appropriate tropical weather-related image



I do believe the Earth is warming. Something is wrong with the climate no doubt, it would be ignorant to deny it. However, I am upset with the global warming situation. Cause it sure seems to me that people and high places are using peoples passion to help the environment as an excuse to gain power from.

I am not saying its true for sure, their no way to prove it, and I hope its not happening. However it sure seems that way.

BTW, check your mail, I hope that settles the false accusation I brought against you.
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Quoting JFLORIDA:
The impressive graph that isn’t

So here’s what Roy did. He took two indices of interannual variability: the Southern Oscillation (SOI) index, which is a proxy for El Nino, and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation Index (PDOI). He formed an ad-hoc weighted sum of these indices,and then multiplied by an ad-hoc scaling factor to turn the resulting time series into a time series of radiative forcing in Watts per square meter. Then he used that time series to drive a simple linear globally averaged mixed layer ocean model incorporating a linearized term representing heat loss to space. And voila, look what comes out of the oven!



A Cooking lesson


What does modeling have to do with observed satellite temperatures?

Yes, different models and their logic will come up with different results.

Let's see how it plays out, especially given we are just entering the 30-year PDO cold cycle.

Guys, I would like to continue the discussion, but just can't right now. The wife is giving me that "Do something" look after my exemption for football.

Not to mention that there is a Hurricane about to make landfall.
Member Since: September 9, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 3414
Seriously???
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Quoting KoritheMan:


I've often wondered if the season will end with all hurricanes at Category 2 strength or greater. If it does, I'm not quite sure when that last occurred in the historical record, if it did so at all.

But both Lisa and Otto were only Cat 1 storms, were they not? Or arte you just asking if that's ever happened?
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13537
Quoting AEKDB1990:
90 mph---wonder if Richard will make Cat 2 by 8 pm when he makes landfall about that time.


I've often wondered if the season will end with all hurricanes at Category 2 strength or greater. If it does, I'm not quite sure when that last occurred in the historical record, if it did so at all.
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Quoting IKE:
1:00 PM CDT Sun Oct 24
Location: 17.1°N 87.5°W
Max sustained: 85 mph
Moving: WNW at 13 mph
Min pressure: 988 mb

.......................................

...RICHARD BECOMES A LITTLE STRONGER AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST OF BELIZE...
4:00 PM CDT Sun Oct 24
Location: 17.2°N 88.0°W
Max sustained: 90 mph
Moving: WNW at 13 mph
Min pressure: 981 mb


There's your sign! Thanks for your continued updates btw, appreciated.
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000
WTNT44 KNHC 242051
TCDAT4
HURRICANE RICHARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192010
400 PM CDT SUN OCT 24 2010

RICHARD APPEARS TO HAVE INTENSIFIED A LITTLE OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS. AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE
HURRICANE REPORTED A PEAK 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 86 KT EXITING
THE EYE TO THE NORTHEAST AND THE HIGHEST UNFLAGGED SFMR WIND SPEED
WAS 69 KT. HOWEVER...THE SFMR INSTRUMENT HAS ISSUES MEASURING THE
SURFACE WINDS IN AREAS OF SHALLOW WATER SUCH AS IS THE CASE JUST
OFF THE COAST OF BELIZE. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED
FROM A DROPSONDE WAS 981 MB. BASED ON THE SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER
CENTRAL PRESSURE AND THE INCREASED ORGANIZATION ON SATELLITE AND
BELIZE RADAR IMAGES...THE INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 80 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY. SINCE THE CENTER WILL BE CROSSING THE COASTLINE IN A
COUPLE OF HOURS...SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS NOW
UNLIKELY PRIOR TO LANDFALL. STEADY WEAKENING WILL COMMENCE AFTER
THE CENTER MOVES INLAND THIS EVENING. THE CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO
EMERGE INTO THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN A
CONSIDERABLY WEAKENED STATE IN 36 TO 48 HOURS...AND STRONG
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD PREVENT RE-INTENSIFICATION.

RICHARD HAS BEEN MOVING AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED...OR
ABOUT 285/11. A WEAKENING MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL CAUSE SOME SLOWING OF THE FORWARD MOTION OVER
THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO. THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS BECOME MORE
DIVERGENT AFTER A DAY OR SO...REFLECTING AN INCREASED UNCERTAINTY
IN THE STEERING CURRENTS. HOWEVER...SINCE RICHARD IS EXPECTED TO
BE REDUCED TO A WEAK CYCLONE BY 48 HOURS...IT SHOULD THEN BE
STEERED BY THE LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE
SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS NOT MUCH
DIFFERENT FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE AND ROUGHLY IN THE MIDDLE OF THE
GUIDANCE SUITE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 24/2100Z 17.2N 88.0W 80 KT
12HR VT 25/0600Z 17.6N 89.4W 60 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 25/1800Z 18.0N 90.5W 40 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 26/0600Z 18.7N 91.5W 30 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 26/1800Z 19.5N 92.5W 25 KT...OVER WATER
72HR VT 27/1800Z 21.3N 94.3W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96HR VT 28/1800Z 23.0N 96.0W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120HR VT 29/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER PASCH
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240. IKE
1:00 PM CDT Sun Oct 24
Location: 17.1°N 87.5°W
Max sustained: 85 mph
Moving: WNW at 13 mph
Min pressure: 988 mb

.......................................

...RICHARD BECOMES A LITTLE STRONGER AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST OF BELIZE...
4:00 PM CDT Sun Oct 24
Location: 17.2°N 88.0°W
Max sustained: 90 mph
Moving: WNW at 13 mph
Min pressure: 981 mb
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:
hey guys anyone notice that area of disturbed weather just south of the Cayman area and south and south west of Jamaica and East of Hon/Nic seems to be part of the rainbands of Richard but it is breaking off maybe something might want to try to form there


I'd place the odds of that happening near zero. There's never been a tropical cyclone ignited by a detached rainband.
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19L/H/R/C1


ON FINAL APPROACH TO LANDFALL
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 171 Comments: 53844
hey guys anyone notice that area of disturbed weather just south of the Cayman area and south and south west of Jamaica and East of Hon/Nic seems to be part of the rainbands of Richard but it is breaking off maybe something might want to try to form there
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12037
Have found 980mb
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Nice ring of deep convection around the eye, the eye just needs to clear out, may not have much time though. I think this makes landfall as a borderline Category 1 or 2 storm. 90-95 mph.

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230. IKE
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Quoting AEKDB1990:


Spencer has revised the way he calculates the temperature downwards twice in the last year. It's not about a machine. Spencer is a dishonest charlatan who is politically motivated to manipulate satellite data to get the results he wants.


How much did it change?
Member Since: September 9, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 3414
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
reedzone its weakening and will weaken even more in the next couple of hrs after landfall which will be in about 90 mins


Yep, it's weakening alright, much more well defined eye, symmetrical convection, feder bands, yeah, it'll be a TS by the next advisory :P

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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