Hurricane Richard bears down on Belize

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:35 PM GMT on October 24, 2010

Share this Blog
3
+

Data from an Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft confirms that Richard has intensified to hurricane strength, as it bears down on the coast of Belize. At 7:30am CST, the aircraft measured surface winds of 85 mph. Winds at their 5,000 foot flight level were 97 mph, qualifying Richard as the 10th hurricane of the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season. This year is now tied for sixth place for most hurricanes in an Atlantic hurricane season. This year's 17 named storms also ranks 6th most in history. Atlantic hurricane season records go back to 1851. Richard's center passed just north of the Honduras' Bay Islands this morning, bringing winds of 46 mph, gusting to 58 mph, to the Roatan Airport. Winds were clocked at 49 mph, gusting to 69 mph, at Calabash Bight on Roatan Island.

The latest 8am CST eye report from the Hurricane Hunters noted that Richard had formed a nearly complete eyewall, with a gap in the southwest side. Radar images from the Belize radar also showed this gap, but the gap closed at 9am CST, and Richard now has a complete eyewall, which will promote more rapid intensification. Recent satellite imagery shows a symmetrical, well-organized hurricane with respectable low level spiral banding, and upper level outflow improving in all quadrants. Richard has now walled itself off from the dry air to the storm's west, as seen on water vapor satellite loops.


Figure 1. The eye of Richard is very prominent in this radar image from the Belize radar taken at 9:15am CST 10/24/10. Image credit: Belize Meteorological Service.

Forecast for Richard
The latest set of 12am CST (6Z) model runs are in excellent agreement with Richard's track, taking the enter of the storm inland over Belize between 4pm - 9pm CST tonight. The latest radar animations from the Belize radar indicate that Belize City will experience a portion of the eyewall of Richard, and residents of Belize City can expect a 2 - 4 hour period of hurricane force winds to begin between 4pm - 6pm CST this evening. Tropical storm force winds of 39+ mph should arrive at the coast between 2pm - 4pm CST this afternoon. A good way to estimate these arrival times is using the wundermap with the "hurricane" layer turned on and the "wind radius" and "forecast" boxes checked. Richard is in a very favorable environment for intensification, with low wind shear between 5 - 10 knots, and warm water temperatures of 29 - 29.5°C. Given these conditions, and the fact that the eyewall is is now fully formed, Richard will probably undergo a period of rapid intensification that could take it to Category 2 strength with 100 mph winds at landfall this evening. Once inland, Richard's small size and relatively slow forward speed of 5 - 10 mph on Monday will lead to substantial weakening as it crosses the Yucatan Peninsula. The storm will probably be a tropical depression when it emerges over the Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday--if it survives the crossing. If Richard does survive the crossing, high wind shear over the Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday and Wednesday should keep the storm from intensifying. Richard should dissipate by Wednesday, before affecting any other land areas.

Invest 90L
A tropical wave (Invest 90L) centered 600 miles northwest of the Cape Verde Islands off the coast of Africa is encountering a very high 40 - 60 knots of wind shear. The shear is predicted to drop to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, Monday through Wednesday. This may give 90L the opportunity to develop, and the NOGAPS model is calling for 90L to develop into a tropical depression by mid-week. NHC is giving 90L a 10% of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday.

Next update
I'll have an update on Monday morning at the latest.

Our weather extremes expert Christopher C. Burt has a very interesting post today on the hottest temperatures ever measured on Earth.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 427 - 377

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18Blog Index

Quoting Orcasystems:


I've sure gotten old. I've had by-pass surgeries, hip replacements, even new knees. I'm half-blind and can't hear anything quieter than a jet engine. I take 40 different medications that make me dizzy, winded, and subject to blackouts. I can't remember if I'm 85 or 92, and have poor circulation; I hardly feel my hands and feet anymore. But thank God, I still have my Florida driver's license!


Hey!!!!!!!!
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27208
x
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56059
Quoting mossyhead:
i am a lifelong resident of Florida.


By a lifelong resident of Florida.

I've sure gotten old. I've had by-pass surgeries, hip replacements, even new knees. I'm half-blind and can't hear anything quieter than a jet engine. I take 40 different medications that make me dizzy, winded, and subject to blackouts. I can't remember if I'm 85 or 92, and have poor circulation; I hardly feel my hands and feet anymore. But thank God, I still have my Florida driver's license!
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26516
Quoting alfabob:
Can't tell if land fall is weakening or intensifying Richard.




UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 24 OCT 2010 Time : 234500 UTC
Lat : 17:19:03 N Lon : 88:27:39 W


TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
NO ADT ANALYSIS AVAILABLE
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting alfabob:
Can't tell if land fall is weakening or intensifying Richard.

Land tends to have the effect of deepening convection, at first, but still disrupting surface winds and structure.
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12463
Quoting mossyhead:
yeah, manmade or in sinkholes in NW Florida
i am a lifelong resident of Florida.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Orcasystems:


The oven's on, but nothing's cooking.
Maybe the MJO will have something for the oven to cook in early November...
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22640
Complete Update



AOI
AOI AOI AOI

AOI AOI AOI

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26516
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
I never new Grand Cayman have mountains and harbors that look like the ones that you would find in Miami

In wunderkid's defense, if you have ever taught writing in college (I have) you would recognise that his "in Miami" was probably intended to refer only to the "harbors," not to the mountains.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
45 more Judge Judy's to go.
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11540
Quoting Cora1979:


Guess very few people know we have waterfalls in Florida then.
yeah, manmade or in sinkholes in NW Florida
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting hcubed:


And this is from a REAL science source:

"...Climate Progress wins TreeHugger’s “Best Politics Website”..."
roflmao.
Quoting AEKDB1990:


I see that when you can't find any flaw in my argument you just attack. I'm sorry that you have such a hard time when the facts don't support your preconceptions.
attack? I thought it was complimentary. That's a great award! Right?
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12463
Quoting AEKDB1990:


If you had bothered to comment honestly, you would note that the January data point was revised downwards considerably. I'm sorry honest discourse is too complicated for you.


You walked into this one. You should be applauding Dr. Spencer for revising the temps UPWARD.

Yes, there was a change. If you read my post, you would see the "No change, really."

The change was made after analysis and other scientists identification of an issue relating to the newer AMSU (post 1998) vs. the older MSU (pre-1998) satellite data.

It was observed that Feb and Sep were anomalously warmer and cooler, respectively, than other data sets. The difference that was corrected is shown in this chart. This is a true, honest, comparison of the change.

Really no change overall. -0.014C average monthly difference, based on 14 months.

Doesn't change anything. Trend remains 0.132C per decade.

That is one one-hundredth and four one-thousandths of a difference. 1.4 cents to the dollar.

Electric bill of $101.40 is now $100.

Perspective is important.

That was the initial change.

Since that time and chart I linked, UAH has actually, again, revised... upward.

The current data set has 0.003C, for the average month over the older data set.

You should be happy with the change.
Member Since: September 9, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 3414
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
Does anyone think that 90L could at one point develop? Or is it's threat gone?
I am not sure about 90L, but it should be interesting to see how much moisture that upper low can drag into the Caribbean Sea...
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22640
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
Does anyone think that 90L could at one point develop? Or is it's threat gone?


The oven's on, but nothing's cooking.
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26516
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
Does anyone think that 90L could at one point develop? Or is it's threat gone?



see post 399
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Does anyone think that 90L could at one point develop? Or is it's threat gone?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Neapolitan:
The NOAA has yet again raised the chances of TC formation in the southern Caribbean. (90L is the little purple diamond in the upper right.) Interesting...

Click for larger image:

Appropriate tropical weather-related image
Looks like a pouch disturbance E-SE associated with Richard..Plenty of warm water out there..
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22640
Quoting kimoskee:


I was thinking the same thing.


Guess very few people know we have waterfalls in Florida then.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
406. IKE
Belize, BH (Airport)
Updated: 18 min 15 sec ago
Heavy Rain
75 °F
Heavy Rain
Humidity: 100%
Dew Point: 75 °F
Wind: 33 mph from the ENE
Wind Gust: 55 mph
Pressure: 29.64 in (Falling)
Visibility: 0.9 miles
UV: 0 out of 16
Clouds:
Mostly Cloudy 300 ft
Mostly Cloudy 4000 ft
Mostly Cloudy 25000 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 16 ft
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 24 OCT 2010 Time : 231500 UTC
Lat : 17:17:42 N Lon : 88:22:41 W


TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
NO ADT ANALYSIS AVAILABLE
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
HurricaneRichard's heading had turned westward to dueWest
from its previous heading of (10.7degrees west of) WestNorthWest
H.Richard's average speed moving between its last 2 reported positions had decreased to ~4.5mph(~7.2km/h) from its previous travel speed of ~11.3mph(~18.4km/h)
TropicalStormRichard
24Oct 12amGMT - 16.2n84.4w - 65mph(~104.5km/h) - 1000mb - #12A
24Oct 03amGMT - 16.3n84.6w - 70mph(~112.6km/h) - - 995mb - #13
24Oct 06amGMT - 16.4n85.1w - 70mph(~112.6km/h) - - 995mb - #13A
24Oct 09amGMT - 16.5n85.5w - 70mph(~112.6km/h) - - 995mb - NHC.Adv.#14
24Oct 12pmGMT - 16.8n86.4w - 70mph(~112.6km/h) - - 990mb - #14A
HurricaneRichard
24Oct 03pmGMT - 16.9n86.9w - 85mph(~136.8km/h) - - 991mb - #15
24Oct 06pmGMT - 17.1n87.5w - 85mph(~136.8km/h) - - 988mb - #15A
24Oct 09pmGMT - 17.2n88.0w - 90mph(~144.8km/h) - - 981mb - #16
25Oct 12amGMT - 17.2n88.2w - 90mph(~144.8km/h) - - 981mb - #16A

Copy&paste 16.2n84.4w, 16.3n84.6w, 16.4n85.1w, 16.5n85.5w, 16.8n86.4w-16.9n86.9w, 16.9n86.9w-17.1n87.5w, 17.1n87.5w-17.2n88.0w, 17.2n88.0w-17.2n88.2w, pnd, 17.2n88.2w-17.2n88.3w into the GreatCircleMapper for a look at the headings and distances travelled over the last 12^hours.

Using straightline projection upon the speed&heading averaged
over the 3hours spanning the last two reported positions:
~1 hour from now to GalesPoint,Belize

^ The westernmost line-segment is the straightline projection
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
FWIW, ATCF says Richard is still at 80 knots and 981mb. 17.2N/88.2W...

AL, 19, 2010102500, , BEST, 0, 172N, 882W, 80, 981, HU, 64, NEQ, 15, 10, 10, 15,
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:
I wasn't aware of any mountains in Florida.


I was thinking the same thing.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The NOAA has yet again raised the chances of TC formation in the southern Caribbean. (90L is the little purple diamond in the upper right.) Interesting...

Click for larger image:

Appropriate tropical weather-related image
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
with landfall of richard now a rapid weakening should begin to occur and hurricane status will be dropped by next adv. at 11 to tropical storm and depression by daybreak
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56059
dont give up on 90L this yet


000
ABNT20 KNHC 242353
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN OCT 24 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
RICHARD...LOCATED NEAR THE COAST OF BELIZE ABOUT 20 MILES SOUTH OF
BELIZE CITY.

A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED
MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS COULD
BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...
THERE
IS STILL A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT
MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting lightningbolt73:
The only mountain I know of is Space Mountain! lol!


The highest point in Florida outside the Panhandle is the Pompano Beach Landfill a bit northwest of Ft. Lauderdale, which at 225' is only 120' shorter than the state's natural high point.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56059
Quoting KoritheMan:
Blog update on Richard. Also, take a look between the end of my analysis of Richard and the start of my analysis for Invest 90L; I think you'll like the surprise. Let me know if you notice it. *wink wink*


Haha, that was great. However "he" still has hope if the ECMWF model is right.
Member Since: October 8, 2008 Posts: 14 Comments: 4553
000
WTNT34 KNHC 242352
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE RICHARD INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 16A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192010
700 PM CDT SUN OCT 24 2010

...RICHARD ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL JUST SOUTH OF BELIZE CITY...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.2N 88.2W
ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM S OF BELIZE CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The only mountain I know of is Space Mountain! lol!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Did we ever get the exact location of the landfall on the American coast, and how close it was to Belizeit?
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26516
392. JLPR2
Paula's life seems to have been slightly elongated.

AL, 18, 2010101106, , BEST, 0, 142N, 820W, 30, 1005, TD,
AL, 18, 2010101112, , BEST, 0, 152N, 832W, 40, 1004, TS,
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
390. JLPR2


90L interacting with an ULL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Direct Hit:
A close approach of a tropical cyclone to a particular location. For locations on the left-hand side of a tropical cyclone's track (looking in the direction of motion), a direct hit occurs when the cyclone passes to within a distance equal to the cyclone's radius of maximum wind. For locations on the right-hand side of the track, a direct hit occurs when the cyclone passes to within a distance equal to twice the radius of maximum wind. Compare indirect hit, strike.

Strike:
For any particular location, a hurricane strike occurs if that location passes within the hurricane's strike circle, a circle of 125 n mi diameter, centered 12.5 n mi to the right of the hurricane center (looking in the direction of motion). This circle is meant to depict the typical extent of hurricane force winds, which are approximately 75 n mi to the right of the center and 50 n mi to the left.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56059
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11540
the nhc has winds up too 90mph for RICHARD
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
386. JLPR2
Quoting Tazmanian:



done


:D Thank you!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting JLPR2:


you just did what I wrote LOL!
Delete all that stuff, it was an accident.



done
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
384. JLPR2
Quoting Tazmanian:




was that long post needed a link would have been better


you just did what I wrote LOL!
Delete all that stuff, it was an accident.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CybrTeddy:


I can see a slight sliver of coast in the eye..
It's the center of the eye that needs to break the coast for it to be considered landfall.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
381. JLPR2
Quoting AEKDB1990:
I do too. In a few minutes landfall will be beyond dispute anyway.

So does landfall happen when the eye first touches the mainland or when the center of the eye reaches land? What's the official definition?


Landfall:
The intersection of the surface center of a tropical cyclone with a coastline. Because the strongest winds in a tropical cyclone are not located precisely at the center, it is possible for a cyclone's strongest winds to be experienced over land even if landfall does not occur. Similarly, it is possible for a tropical cyclone to make landfall and have its strongest winds remain over the water. Compare direct hit, indirect hit, and strike.

* I hope no one quotes all the stuff I deleted. XD
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
378. BDAwx
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Richard has yet to make landfall...the western eyewall is just breaking the coast. It isn't considered landfall until the center of the circulation moves inland, and radar from Belize reveals that it has yet to do so.


That is what I thought...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
377. JLPR2
jeez 7000ft? O.o

I live at 13ft above sea level. XD
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 427 - 377

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

JeffMasters's Recent Photos

Lake Effort Snow Shower Over Windsor, Ontario
Sunset on Dunham Lake
Pictured Rocks Sunset
Sunset on Lake Huron