Hurricane Richard bears down on Belize
Data from an Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft confirms that Richard has intensified to hurricane strength, as it bears down on the coast of Belize. At 7:30am CST, the aircraft measured surface winds of 85 mph. Winds at their 5,000 foot flight level were 97 mph, qualifying Richard as the 10th hurricane of the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season. This year is now tied for sixth place for most hurricanes in an Atlantic hurricane season. This year's 17 named storms also ranks 6th most in history. Atlantic hurricane season records go back to 1851. Richard's center passed just north of the Honduras' Bay Islands this morning, bringing winds of 46 mph, gusting to 58 mph, to the Roatan Airport. Winds were clocked at 49 mph, gusting to 69 mph, at Calabash Bight on Roatan Island.
The latest 8am CST eye report from the Hurricane Hunters noted that Richard had formed a nearly complete eyewall, with a gap in the southwest side. Radar images from the Belize radar also showed this gap, but the gap closed at 9am CST, and Richard now has a complete eyewall, which will promote more rapid intensification. Recent satellite imagery shows a symmetrical, well-organized hurricane with respectable low level spiral banding, and upper level outflow improving in all quadrants. Richard has now walled itself off from the dry air to the storm's west, as seen on water vapor satellite loops.
Figure 1. The eye of Richard is very prominent in this radar image from the Belize radar taken at 9:15am CST 10/24/10. Image credit: Belize Meteorological Service.
Forecast for Richard
The latest set of 12am CST (6Z) model runs are in excellent agreement with Richard's track, taking the enter of the storm inland over Belize between 4pm - 9pm CST tonight. The latest radar animations from the Belize radar indicate that Belize City will experience a portion of the eyewall of Richard, and residents of Belize City can expect a 2 - 4 hour period of hurricane force winds to begin between 4pm - 6pm CST this evening. Tropical storm force winds of 39+ mph should arrive at the coast between 2pm - 4pm CST this afternoon. A good way to estimate these arrival times is using the wundermap with the "hurricane" layer turned on and the "wind radius" and "forecast" boxes checked. Richard is in a very favorable environment for intensification, with low wind shear between 5 - 10 knots, and warm water temperatures of 29 - 29.5°C. Given these conditions, and the fact that the eyewall is is now fully formed, Richard will probably undergo a period of rapid intensification that could take it to Category 2 strength with 100 mph winds at landfall this evening. Once inland, Richard's small size and relatively slow forward speed of 5 - 10 mph on Monday will lead to substantial weakening as it crosses the Yucatan Peninsula. The storm will probably be a tropical depression when it emerges over the Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday--if it survives the crossing. If Richard does survive the crossing, high wind shear over the Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday and Wednesday should keep the storm from intensifying. Richard should dissipate by Wednesday, before affecting any other land areas.
Invest 90L
A tropical wave (Invest 90L) centered 600 miles northwest of the Cape Verde Islands off the coast of Africa is encountering a very high 40 - 60 knots of wind shear. The shear is predicted to drop to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, Monday through Wednesday. This may give 90L the opportunity to develop, and the NOGAPS model is calling for 90L to develop into a tropical depression by mid-week. NHC is giving 90L a 10% of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday.
Next update
I'll have an update on Monday morning at the latest.
Our weather extremes expert Christopher C. Burt has a very interesting post today on the hottest temperatures ever measured on Earth.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Alex, Hermine, Bonnie, TD5, TD2, and Earl all impacted the US.
And for regeneration, shear is way too high for it to even strengthen. That's why the NHC weakens it slowly and dissipates it at 96 hours out.
Seems Belize is down (power) from Ricky-boy as he drenched 4 Latin American countries - let's hope no mudslides
Good day to all - PraysUp for rain here in SWFL
City, Belize airport....for October 24th, 2010....
Wind:
Wind Speed 9 mph
Max Wind Speed 37 mph
Max Gust Speed 62 mph
Visibility 4.3 miles
Events Rain , Thunderstorm
.............................................
HURRICANE RICHARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192010
1000 PM CDT SUN OCT 24 2010
RADAR DATA FROM BELIZE INDICATE THAT RICHARD MADE LANDFALL AROUND
0045 UTC ABOUT 20 N MI SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BELIZE CITY.
All interests in the central and eastern Caribbean will need to pay close attention to the possibility of tropical cyclone development this weekend or more likely early next week. The overall pattern in the Caribbean next week favors lowering barometric pressures and upward motion and also all of the global model guidance agrees on the possibility of tropical cyclone development in either the central or eastern Caribbean as we get into early next week.
How is everyone doing this fine Monday?
Coffee and Sunrise almost here.
Thanks
whats interesting to me is that the gfs has a low passing just off the Venezuelan coast a few runs now.
Not much out there that has the possibility of development. High pressure firmly in control of the atlantic basin with a little wave at 45W 15N and another at 25W 10N both with no circulation and dry air and the shear is high everywhere..
The trades are blowing and water temperatures dropping. You can feel the warmth and moisture being pulled off the ocean by the wind as you get alternating dry cool air mixed with the tropical air...
7:00 AM CDT Mon Oct 25
Location: 17.7N, 89.9W
Max sustained: 45 mph
Moving: WNW at 9 mph
Min pressure: 1005 mb
.......................................
3 hours ago it was at...
INITIAL 25/0900Z 17.6N 89.6W 55 KT...INLAND
October 9 (click for larger image):
October 23 (click for larger image:
from its previous heading of dueWest
TS.Richard's average speed moving between its last 2 reported positions had increased to ~7mph(~11.3km/h) from its previous travel speed of ~6.7mph(~10.7km/h)
TS.Richard
24Oct 12pmGMT - 16.8n86.4w - 70mph(~112.6km/h) - 990mb - #14A
H.Richard
24Oct 03pmGMT - 16.9n86.9w - 85mph(~136.8km/h) - 991mb - #15
24Oct 06pmGMT - 17.1n87.5w - 85mph(~136.8km/h) - 988mb - #15A
24Oct 09pmGMT - 17.2n88.0w - 90mph(~144.8km/h) - 981mb - NHC.Adv.#16
25Oct 12amGMT - 17.2n88.2w - 90mph(~144.8km/h) - 981mb - #16A
25Oct 03amGMT - 17.3n88.6w - 90mph(~144.8km/h) - 981mb - #17
25Oct 06amGMT - 17.6n89.3w - 75mph(~120.7km/h) - 987mb - #17A
TS.Richard
25Oct 09amGMT - 17.6n89.6w - 65mph(~104.6km/h) - 993mb - #18
25Oct 12pmGMT - 17.7n89.9w - 45mph(~72.4km/h) - 1005mb - #18A
Copy&paste 16.8n86.4w, 16.9n86.9w, 17.1n87.5w, 17.2n88.0w, 17.2n88.2w-17.3n88.6w, 17.3n88.6w-17.6n89.3w, 17.6n89.3w-17.6n89.6w, 17.6n89.6w-17.7n89.9w, ver, pnd, cun into the GreatCircleMapper for a look at the headings and distances travelled over the last 12^hours.
Essentially TS.Richard has spent the last 6hours ripping itself apart on northern Guatemala's highlands.
While the highest and the worst of the rugged terrain is now behind Richard, there's still enough ahead that it is to be expected that the TropicalStorm will be downgraded to to a TropicalDepression by the next NHC.Advisory.
I took this with my camera yesterday afternoon. The storms were long ways away (Probably over an hour and a half), so I got this image:
127 kg/m2
Viewing: 851 - 877
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