New threat: Stan's remains head for Florida

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:34 PM GMT on October 05, 2005

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Return of Stan
A large area of thunderstorms broke off from Stan this morning, and has emerged into the Yucatan Channel. Satellite imagery this morning has shown some improved organization of this feature, and with wind shear 10 knots over it, there is a chance of a tropical depression or tropical storm forming later today or tomorrow as the system tracks north-northeast towards western Florida. If this system were to be named, it would get the new name Vince, and not Stan, since the primary circulation of that storm pushed into the Pacific Ocean this morning.

Winds at the NOAA buoy 42056 at 20N 85W in the Yucatan Channel just switched from easterly to westerly at 11 am EDT today, suggesting that a closed circulation has already formed. Winds at this buoy were 25 mph gusting to 34 mph, and wind estimates from the latest QuikSCAT satellite pass were as high as 45 mph in this region. Regardless of whether or not this system develops into a tropical storm, southwest Florida can expect tropical storm conditions Thursday afternoon when this system comes ashore. The system will continue to the northeast and drench the areas already dumped on by Tropical Storm Tammy, and the entire East Coast needs to be concerned about serious flooding problems from this one-two punch.

I'll update this blog by 4pm today. The remainder of this morning's blog appears below, unchanged.


Figure 1. BAMM model track for tropical disturbance off of the Yucatan.

Tammy
Tropical Storm Tammy formed 20 miles offshore from Cape Canaveral this morning. With 19 named storms, the Hurricane Season of 2005 has now tied 1995 as the second busiest ever. Only 1933, with 21 storms, has had more.

Tammy formed in the presence of some unusually high wind shear from an upper-level low pressure system in the Gulf of Mexico--about 15 - 20 knots--which is decreasing enough this morning to allow some intensification. Radar animations out of Melbourne, Florida, show an intense area of thunderstorms, well offshore, that are increasing in echo intensity. No ships or buoys have actually measured tropical storm-force sustained winds of 40 mph yet, but it is likely that such winds are occurring in the most intense convection to the east of the center. Infrared satellite images confirm that this area is growing in size and intensity, and some very cold cloud tops are now appearing. As long as the center remains offshore, Tammy may continue to intensify. Intensification into a hurricane is not expected, and would be a major surprise, due to the high wind shear. It is more likely that the center will move onshore tonight as a weak tropical storm with maximum winds in the 40 - 50 mph range. In any case, the primary threat from Tammy will be from her rains. Bands of heavy rain will move onshore the coasts of northern Florida, Georgia, and the Carolinas over the next few days, creating flooding problems, particulary in Georgia, where the precipitation will be heaviest and the soil is moister.


Figure 2. Mild drought conditions cover South Carolina, which will slow flooding in that state. Flooding is more likely to be a problem in Georgia and perhaps North Carolina, where the soil is moister.

Tammy is being drawn northward by a trough and its associated cold front that are expected to arrive over the East Coast on Friday. The remains of Tammy will track up the front, drenching the entire East Coast, and it is likely that at least one more area of low pressure--probably not a tropical storm, but it could be--will develop along the front late in the week and move northeast, giving the entire East Coast additional heavy rain.

Stan's wake
Stan dissipated this morning over the Mexican mountains, and his circulation is pushing onward into the Pacific Ocean, where a new tropical storm may form. Little enough of Stan remains in the southern Gulf of Mexico to allow a new tropical storm to form there later in the week, although the NOGAPS model is still calling for that to happen.

Stan's onshore winds blowing across the Pacific Ocean into his center caused a major disaster in El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, and Mexico. In Mexico's southernmost state of Chiapas, a river overflowed its banks and tore through the city of Tapachula, destroying numerous houses. Guatemala is reporting four dead, Nicaragua nine dead, and 49 have been killed in El Salvador by mud slides triggered by heavy rains. The death toll will undoubtedly rise much higher, since Stan's remains will still generate rain over the area for two more days.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The area of disturbed weather near Puerto Rico has diminished, and tropical storm formation is not expected here or anywhere else in the Atlantic through Thursday.

I'll have an update about 3pm today when the Hurricane Hunters arrive at the storm.

Jeff Masters

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268. weatherdude65
8:48 PM GMT on October 05, 2005
chaser...I was at FSU for a year, meteorology major, before leaving to attend seminary, majored in youth ministry
267. AM91091
8:35 PM GMT on October 05, 2005
Sub TS Nicole formed about this time last yaer
266. leftyy420
8:35 PM GMT on October 05, 2005
new blog u guys. see u there
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
265. hurricanechaser
8:33 PM GMT on October 05, 2005
thats soo cool..cause 1 kt. equals 1.15 mph
264. notwithoutmyprosac
8:33 PM GMT on October 05, 2005
Ok, this has nothing to do with weather but you have to see this.

http://apnews1.iwon.com/article/20051005/D8D233PG0.html
263. hurricanechaser
8:32 PM GMT on October 05, 2005
yep lefty...this time of year as you know..its difficult to get a purely tropical system off the east coast this far north.
262. leftyy420
8:31 PM GMT on October 05, 2005
135nm is 155 statute mile or 155 regular miles. a nm is 1.15 regular miles. don;t ask me why its a sailing thing lol.

155miles is far for max winds to be from the center
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
260. hurricanechaser
8:30 PM GMT on October 05, 2005
youre very welcome weathergirl..glad you joined :)
259. leftyy420
8:29 PM GMT on October 05, 2005
must not u can see how asymetricale she is. max flight level winds were 135nm thats almost 200 stute miles from the center wow. lol she is definetly more subtropicl than tropical
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
258. hurricanechaser
8:28 PM GMT on October 05, 2005
hmmm slight drop in pressure...not enough to support more than a 50 mph tropical storm at this point...feeling generous..give tammy..55 mph if she stays offshore.
257. AM91091
8:27 PM GMT on October 05, 2005
i wonder if Dr. Masters will keep a blog even after Hurricane season.
256. leftyy420
8:27 PM GMT on October 05, 2005
motion is stll nnw and she is close the the shore now. just 10-15 miles offshore . here are the cordinates per recon fixes

10-5-05
12:30-1004mb 29.13n 80.82w
2:46pm-1003mb 29.57n 80.98w
4:05pm-1001mb 29.90n 81.12w
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
255. weathergirl05
8:26 PM GMT on October 05, 2005
thanks for answering! have been reading since before Katrina found this by accident! Thanks for all the good info!
254. hurricanechaser
8:23 PM GMT on October 05, 2005
still...getting tropical storm force winds from a named storm is still better than no action at all.
253. leftyy420
8:23 PM GMT on October 05, 2005
new vortex

URNT12 KNHC 052016
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 05/20:05:00Z
B. 29 deg 54 min N
081 deg 10 min W
C. NA mb NA m
D. 50 kt
E. 31 deg 136 nm
F. 115 deg 045 kt
G. 031 deg 135 nm
H. EXTRAP 1001 mb
I. 21 C/ 307 m
J. 24 C/ 304 m
K. 23 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345/ 1
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF300 0121A TAMMY OB 11
MAX FL WIND 51 KT NE QUAD 19:10:50 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500 FT.


Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
252. leftyy420
8:22 PM GMT on October 05, 2005
i think it will be a depression mayb a weak ts thats about it lol
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
251. leftyy420
8:21 PM GMT on October 05, 2005
i think weak ts is possible but not likley. shear will relax for a period of time but pick back up 12 hrs later so there is a window of opprtunity
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
250. hurricanechaser
8:20 PM GMT on October 05, 2005
hey weathergirl..as it stands now..the shear is high in the eastern gulf so the system shouldn't intensify too quickly nor become to intense..it will do well to achieve a name and possibly reach 45-50 mph winds at this point. On the other hand, it may not reach storm status but still bring gle force winds in gusts and lots of rain..my best guess from what I see currently..time will tell.
249. leftyy420
8:20 PM GMT on October 05, 2005
i ammore inclined to follow the gfs than the nogaps. if there is a ullin the gulf i can not see the shear relaxingn as much as the nogapps shows.
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
248. AM91091
8:19 PM GMT on October 05, 2005
ya looks like this might not develop for another 2-3 days... thanks!
247. leftyy420
8:18 PM GMT on October 05, 2005
the nogapps forcats much less hear than the gfs for sure
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
246. hurricanechaser
8:17 PM GMT on October 05, 2005
feel^.
245. weathergirl05
8:17 PM GMT on October 05, 2005
Hello, do we in swfla need to concerned with the yucatan?
244. leftyy420
8:17 PM GMT on October 05, 2005
am9 ws lookign at it.u need to usei the 850-200mb shear level. it shows a pretty hostle gulf with packets of good ares aso shear will be a problem.check it out

Link
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
243. hurricanechaser
8:16 PM GMT on October 05, 2005
loL Mandy..I majored in business with a minor in English when I graduated. Then I worked as a retail store manager and retail consultant for too many years after that. I noticed the FSU in your screen name and I thought about going too school there for tropical meteorology but would've required me to move. Although I drove by there on I-10 for my Dennis chase in July.
242. MandyFSU
8:15 PM GMT on October 05, 2005
ooh. Duh. I think we may BOTH be sleep deprived. lol.
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 82 Comments: 2525
241. AM91091
8:11 PM GMT on October 05, 2005
Shear Forecast (NOGAPS)- it is forecasting even less shear.
240. hurricanechaser
8:10 PM GMT on October 05, 2005
sorry i was away..sorry Mandy..it was a bad joke (gonna blame it on sleep deprivation)...we are all agreeing on a lower ga. landfall (we are the models)..
239. leftyy420
8:08 PM GMT on October 05, 2005
yeah am9 thanksman
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
238. AM91091
8:06 PM GMT on October 05, 2005
237. AM91091
8:06 PM GMT on October 05, 2005
shear will be near zero in the Gulf over the next few days.
236. leftyy420
8:05 PM GMT on October 05, 2005
yeah chaser
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
235. MandyFSU
8:05 PM GMT on October 05, 2005
hurricane: you got a model link? Pretty please? :-)
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 82 Comments: 2525
234. MandyFSU
8:04 PM GMT on October 05, 2005
hurricane: already graduated. Got a BS in BS... j/k. I majored in Business- concentration in Risk Management & Insurance. I work for a law firm downtown.
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 82 Comments: 2525
233. cat1cane
8:04 PM GMT on October 05, 2005
thanks
232. hurricanechaser
8:03 PM GMT on October 05, 2005
it looks like the most recent models...lefty, mandy, chaser, and st. simons are all begiining to converge at the lower ga. border.:)
231. leftyy420
8:03 PM GMT on October 05, 2005
cane, the circulation cenetr is still over the yucatan and shear is very high. it will be sometime maybe tommorow befor anything could or would form
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
230. hurricanechaser
8:02 PM GMT on October 05, 2005
hey mandy... what is your major at fsu?
229. cat1cane
8:01 PM GMT on October 05, 2005
Hi, all. Con anyone give me a quick update on what the situation is down by the Yucatan? Is it looking like that will develop at all?
228. leftyy420
7:58 PM GMT on October 05, 2005
yeah st, that could happen
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
226. MandyFSU
7:56 PM GMT on October 05, 2005
hurricanechaser:

Thanks. I kinda feel that way too... the models seem to be converging together for a day or so, so that's what's throwing me. Oh well, we know better than to really try to predict anything. lol
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 82 Comments: 2525
225. leftyy420
7:55 PM GMT on October 05, 2005
so true chaser lol thats always my hope, come up the cheasepeak lol roight to my front door. i live an hr south of dc. right on I-95
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
224. hurricanechaser
7:55 PM GMT on October 05, 2005
youre very welcome Jim.
223. hurricanechaser
7:54 PM GMT on October 05, 2005
orion..thats impresive...sometimes we don't have to chase one to experience it..i.e. it comes to you.
222. leftyy420
7:53 PM GMT on October 05, 2005
yeah i think just south of brunswick for the landfall. she is reorginising the cenetr again for the second time today. that shear is doing a number on her
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
221. hurricanechaser
7:51 PM GMT on October 05, 2005
i see it hugging the coast myself..more like a landfall no further south than the fl./ga. border.
220. leftyy420
7:51 PM GMT on October 05, 2005
orion my first stint in college i took a year of computer science as my major and was pretty good with c++. now my brother is getting his degree in computer science and he writes code in java.. i love me so c++. i love writing code but when i decided to go back i knew i wanted to be a meterologist more. but i still love computers. i built my computer my self, from component parts and would love to minor in computer science.
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
219. hurricanechaser
7:50 PM GMT on October 05, 2005
i havent see any radar for two hours or so but last time i looked..i cant see how at its present motion at that time i should say, it could come in that far south..
218. JimJax
7:49 PM GMT on October 05, 2005
Thanks guys, I love this blog. Just read and try to learn some.

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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