Little change to Richard; Giri strongest cyclone ever to hit Myanmar; Megi nears China

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9:07 PM GMT on October 22, 2010

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Tropical Storm Richard continues to struggle with dry air and wind shear, despite the fact that both of these influences have waned significantly today. However, the storm is poised to begin a period of steady intensification that should take it to hurricane strength by Sunday. There have not been any hurricane hunter aircraft in Richard since late this morning, and we have to wait until 8pm tonight for the next mission to arrive. The closest buoy to Richard is NOAA buoy 42057, which is about 80 miles north of the center. Winds at the buoy were 38 mph, gusting to 47 mph, at 3:43am EDT. Recent satellite imagery shows that Richard has not changed much in organization today. Water vapor satellite loops show considerable dry air to the west of Richard, and this dry air may cause some trouble for the storm over the next few days. The waters beneath Richard are very warm, 29°C.


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of Richard.

Intensity forecast for Richard
The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear over the Western Caribbean will remain in the low range, 5 - 10 knots, Saturday through Monday. As the storm moves westwards on Saturday, it may draw close enough to coast of Honduras to hamper intensification. Assuming Richard avoids making landfall in Honduras, the light shear and warm waters that extend to great depth should allow Richard to intensify into a Category 1 hurricane by Sunday. The 5pm NHC wind probability forecast is giving Richard a 7% chance of becoming a major Category 3+ hurricane. I believe the odds are higher, near 20%. The main inhibiting factor for intensification will be interaction with the north coast of Honduras, and the possibility of the dry air to the west of Richard getting wrapped into the core of the storm while it is trying to organize. A band of very strong upper-level winds associated with the jet stream will be over the Gulf of Mexico early next week, so it is likely that if Richard crosses into the Gulf of Mexico, the storm will be unable to intensify once it passes north of the latitude of the Florida Keys.

Track forecast for Richard
The latest set of 8am EDT (12Z) model runs are similar to the previous set of runs. On Saturday, Richard will move west at an increasing rate of speed in response to a ridge of high pressure that is expected to build in over the Caribbean. This path will bring the center of Richard close to the northern coast of Honduras on Saturday and Sunday, resulting in very heavy rains of 3 - 7 inches along the coast. None of the models predict a more northwesterly path towards Cancun/Cozumel or the western tip of Cuba, and Florida is not at risk of Richard coming its way over the next five days. The 5pm EDT NHC wind probability forecast is giving the highest odds for tropical storm-force winds at Guanaja in Honduras, at 70%. Belize City is next highest, at 65%, and the odds are 31% for Cozumel. If Richard never reaches hurricane strength, it may dissipate over the Yucatan Peninsula, as predicted by the NOGAPS and ECMWF models. If Richard does intensify into a hurricane, as predicted by the GFDL model, the storm may survive crossing the Yucatan, and emerge into the Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday. Very high wind shear associated with the jet stream is expected to be over the Gulf of Mexico next week, so if Richard begins moving north or northeast towards the U.S. Gulf Coast, dissipation before landfall is to be expected.

Invest 90L
A tropical wave (Invest 90L) centered about 100 miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands off the coast of Africa has a modest amount of spin and heavy thunderstorm activity. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots, and the waters are warm enough to support tropical storm formation. NHC is giving the system a 40% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday. By Sunday, 90L's northwest movement will take the storm into a region of high wind shear of 20 - 40 knots, discouraging further development. This system is not a threat to cross the Atlantic and affect the Lesser Antilles or North America.

Cyclone Giri hits Myanmar
Powerful Cyclone Giri made landfall this morning on the coast of Myanmar (Burma) as an upper-end Category 4 storm with 155 mph winds. Giri strengthened from a 60 mph tropical storm at 8am EDT yesterday to a 155 mph Category 4 storm by 8am this morning, becoming the strongest cyclone ever to hit Myanmar. Giri's winds at landfall were 20 mph stronger than those of Cyclone Nargis of 2008, which killed over 138,000 people. However, Giri hit a portion of the Myanmar coast that is not as heavily populated or as low-lying, so this will not be another Nargis catastrophe. Nevertheless, Giri's record strength and remarkably rapid intensification rate undoubtedly surprised an unprepared population, and the potential exists for a significant death toll due to Giri's surge and winds. Also of major concern is flooding from heavy rains. Giri is expected to dump 4 - 8 inches of rain along its path inland over Myanmar over the next 24 hours.


Figure 2. Visible MODIS satellite image of Tropical Cyclone Giri taken at 2:55am EDT October 22, 2010. At the time, Giri was a Category 4 storm with 145 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Typhoon Megi unleashes torrential rains on Taiwan and China
Torrential rains from Typhoon Megi have triggered flooding and landslides in Taiwan that have left 7 people dead and 23 missing. The typhoon is also being blamed for the deaths of 36 people and $176 million in damage earlier this week in the Philippines. Megi continues its slow march towards China at 5 mph, and is expected to make landfall Saturday afternoon on the Chinese coast opposite from Taiwan. Megi is a large and powerful Category 1 typhoon with 90 mph winds, but rising wind shear has significantly weakened the storm today. Megi will continue to weaken until landfall, but will still be capable of causing considerable wind and storm surge damage even at Category 1 strength. Heavy rain will likely cause serious flooding since Megi is moving slowly and is a huge storm. I expect Megi will be a billion-dollar disaster for China, mostly due to flooding from heavy rains. The outer rain bands of Megi will continue to affect Taiwan and the coast of China near Taiwan through Saturday, as seen on China's radar composite and Taiwan radar.


Figure 3. Radar image of Typhoon Megi at 4:30pm EDT (4:30am Taiwan time) on October 22, 2010. Image credit: Taiwan Central Weather Bureau.

Next update
I'll have an update Saturday.

Jeff Masters

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1075. Chicklit
12:08 AM GMT on November 08, 2010
Quoting Neapolitan:

I was thinking maybe a job at Fox, or even as Palin's 2012 running mate.


you are joking of course, because Palin is now a reality star.
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11358
1074. oceanblues32
4:34 PM GMT on October 23, 2010
ok so i am her in southeast florida so i really have nothing to worry about when it comes to richard over the next seven days right?
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 207
1073. CosmicEvents
4:24 PM GMT on October 23, 2010
This blog is now the old blog.
There is now a new blog.
Member Since: August 3, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 5622
1072. txjac
4:19 PM GMT on October 23, 2010
Thanks again Levi
Member Since: April 24, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 2547
1071. aspectre
4:19 PM GMT on October 23, 2010
NEW BLOG
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
1069. sunlinepr
4:17 PM GMT on October 23, 2010
Quoting Levi32:
Good morning all.

Tropical Tidbit for Saturday, October 23rd


More west like track for Richard and we should be alert here in the caribbean..... Thanks for your Tropica Tidbit....
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9825
1068. aspectre
4:17 PM GMT on October 23, 2010
NEW BLOG
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
1067. Orcasystems
4:15 PM GMT on October 23, 2010
Quoting Levi32:
Good morning all.

Tropical Tidbit for Saturday, October 23rd


If it does as you suspect.. wouldn't the shear kill it when it gets back over water after the Yucatan?

I don't like your day 13 :(

How am I suppose to book a sunny vacation when you keep saying things like that :(
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
1066. unf97
4:13 PM GMT on October 23, 2010
Quoting 7544:
is richard moving north now tia ?


He is moving just slightly north of due west.
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1193
1064. HurricaneDean07
4:13 PM GMT on October 23, 2010
Richard will likely survive the yucatan if it can stay farther north and strengthen. I'll be back after making my update.
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
1063. 7544
4:11 PM GMT on October 23, 2010
is richard moving north now tia ?
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6862
1061. Neapolitan
4:09 PM GMT on October 23, 2010
Quoting PensacolaDoug:


I knew that'd rouse ya!

Really? So you were thinking the same thing, then? Cool! I always knew you had to be more intelligent than you normally come across! ;-)
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13580
1058. Levi32
4:09 PM GMT on October 23, 2010
Good morning all.

Tropical Tidbit for Saturday, October 23rd
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26661
1057. aspectre
4:08 PM GMT on October 23, 2010
TropicalStormRichard's heading had turned northward to (10.8degrees west of) WestNorthWest
from its previous center*reformation dueEast
TS.Richard's average speed moving between its last 2 reported positions has been ~11.3mph(~18.2km/h)

TropicalStormRichard
22Oct 03pmGMT - 15.8n81.1w - 40mph(~64.4km/h) - - 1006mb - NHC.Adv#7
22Oct 06pmGMT - 15.8n81.3w - 40mph(~64.4km/h) - - 1006mb - NHC.Adv.#7A
22Oct 09pmGMT - 16.2n81.7w - 45mph(~72.4km/h) - - 1005mb - NHC.Adv.#8
23Oct 12amGMT - 15.8n82.3w - 45mph(~72.4km/h) - - 1007mb - NHC.Adv.#8A
23Oct 03amGMT - 15.8n82.4w - 45mph(~72.4km/h) - - 1007mb - NHC.Adv.#9
23Oct 06amGMT - 15.8n82.6w - 45mph(~72.4km/h) - - 1007mb - NHC.Adv.#9A
23Oct 09amGMT - 15.8n83.2w - 45mph(~72.4km/h) - - 1006mb - NHC.Adv.#10
23Oct 12pmGMT - 15.8n83.0w - 45mph(~72.4km/h) - - 1004mb - NHC.Adv.#10A
23Oct 03pmGMT - 15.9n83.5w - 65mph(~104.5km/h) - 1000mb - NHC.Adv.#11

Copy&paste 15.8n81.1w, 15.8n81.3w, 16.2n81.7w, 15.8n82.3w, 15.8n82.4w-15.8n82.6w, 15.8n82.6w-15.8n83.2w, 15.8n83.2w-15.8n83.0w, 15.8n83.0w-15.9n83.5w, bze, rtb, 15.9n83.5w-16.44n86.3w into the GreatCircleMapper for a look at the headings and distance travelled over the last 12^hours.

.Using straightline projection upon the speed&heading averaged
over the 3hours spanning the last two reported positions:
~15hours from now to JoseSantosGuardiola,RoatanIsland,Honduras

^ The (westnorth)westernmost line-segment is the straightline projections

* On 23Oct 12pmGMT, TS.Richard's center had reformed dueEast of it's previous position after having earlier travelled dueWest for the 9hours prior to 23Oct 09mGMT.
Hence the westernmost position on the straight east-to-west line is the third most recent.
And the newest line-segment (which represents TS.Richard's most recent 3hours of travel) departs from the second-most western position on that straight east-to-west line.
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
1056. PensacolaDoug
4:07 PM GMT on October 23, 2010
Quoting Neapolitan:

I was thinking maybe a job at Fox, or even as Palin's 2012 running mate.


I knew that'd rouse ya!
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 581
1055. CaicosRetiredSailor
4:07 PM GMT on October 23, 2010
1,234,567 Photos!
Member Since: July 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6051
1054. Tazmanian
4:06 PM GMT on October 23, 2010
Quoting HurricaneRichard:
Morning, all, ^_^


oh and poof
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115255
1053. Neapolitan
4:06 PM GMT on October 23, 2010
Quoting PensacolaDoug:



NPR? MSNBC?

I was thinking maybe a job at Fox, or even as Palin's 2012 running mate.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13580
1052. Tazmanian
4:05 PM GMT on October 23, 2010
Quoting HurricaneRichard:
Morning, all, ^_^



here a nic wake up call for you reported
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115255
1050. PensacolaDoug
4:03 PM GMT on October 23, 2010
Quoting Dakster:


I guess this means he will be a CEO in some large company now.



NPR? MSNBC?
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 581
1046. PensacolaDoug
4:01 PM GMT on October 23, 2010
Lookin like "Big Richard" went to "See Alice"!
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 581
1045. Neapolitan
4:00 PM GMT on October 23, 2010
If and when you weather lovers get a chance, be sure to head over to Christopher Burt's "Weather Extremes" WU blog. Today's installment is a very detailed--and very convincing--deconstruction of various all-time global heat "records". That is, most of those "records" are anything but...
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13580
1044. PensacolaDoug
4:00 PM GMT on October 23, 2010
RE: 1039


Can you imagine that in the US?
We can't get rid of them here. The US is probably where he'll end up. With tenure no less.
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 581
1043. IKE
4:00 PM GMT on October 23, 2010


Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
1042. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
3:57 PM GMT on October 23, 2010
Quoting cat5hurricane:

Oh my that scared me - I had to look at that name a second time. Katring. Yet another one out there.


ya imagine if Juan was named Katring instead.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45751
1041. Dakster
3:56 PM GMT on October 23, 2010
Quoting Orcasystems:
OK, now this is true and funny :)
he should just be the first of many

The first teacher banned for life for being useless

A teacher who is judged to be incapable of ever improving his work has become the first to be banned for life from the classroom due to incompetence.



I guess this means he will be a CEO in some large company now.
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10545
1040. portcharlotte
3:52 PM GMT on October 23, 2010
Wind Shear is in the unfavorable range over the Southern Gulf of Mexico...Mon-Wed. but not highly unfavorable
Member Since: September 7, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 703
1039. Orcasystems
3:52 PM GMT on October 23, 2010
OK, now this is true and funny :)
he should just be the first of many

The first teacher banned for life for being useless

A teacher who is judged to be incapable of ever improving his work has become the first to be banned for life from the classroom due to incompetence.

Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
1038. Patrap
3:51 PM GMT on October 23, 2010





Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128875
1037. Dakster
3:51 PM GMT on October 23, 2010
On a somber note,condolences to those in Barbados. I see that their Prime Minister has passed away at the ripe old age of 48.

http://www.cnn.com/2010/WORLD/americas/10/23/barbados.prime.minister.obit/index.html?hpt=T2

Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10545
1036. Thundercloud01221991
3:51 PM GMT on October 23, 2010
I still do not think that Richard will have time to become anything significant with land interaction literally imminent on the south side. In addition to this the land will continue to get closer from the west until it is enclosed with land. It needs to pull northward to become anything significant
Member Since: August 1, 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 3716
1034. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
3:49 PM GMT on October 23, 2010
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION KATRING
11:00 PM PhST October 23 2010
=====================================

Tropical Depression "KATRING" has maintained its strength and is moving generally westward.

At 10:00 PM PhST, Tropical Depression Katring located at 15.0°N 133.3°E or 1,170 km east of central Luzon has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is forecasted to move west southwest at 7 knots.

Additional Information
=======================
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45751
1032. CybrTeddy
3:47 PM GMT on October 23, 2010
Hints of an eyewall..
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24263
1031. PensacolaDoug
3:47 PM GMT on October 23, 2010
Quoting Orcasystems:


Been to PV 3 times

Cancun 4 times...giving serious thought to doing two weeks in Cuba..

BUT, I am a little worried about the weather (I think the season is going to run long this year)and the missing GOM oil.

So, we may just go back to PV for two weeks.



I'd like to visit "Whistler" someday as well.
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 581
1029. PensacolaDoug
3:45 PM GMT on October 23, 2010
Richard looking better by the moment.
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 581
1028. CybrTeddy
3:44 PM GMT on October 23, 2010
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24263
1027. Tropicsweatherpr
3:42 PM GMT on October 23, 2010
Atlantic ACE is now at 143.3475 with the 11 AM update at 55kts. Will Richard intensify more than what NHC is forecasting? If it intensifies more,then it will reach the 150 line of hyperactive season. Lets see what occurs.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14412
1026. Orcasystems
3:41 PM GMT on October 23, 2010
Quoting cat5hurricane:

You got me in a knot there. All great places. Cancun I'm a little biased since last time I was there I was in college....which speaks for itself ;) But you can't go wrong with Puerto V.


Been to PV 3 times

Cancun 4 times...giving serious thought to doing two weeks in Cuba..

BUT, I am a little worried about the weather (I think the season is going to run long this year)and the missing GOM oil.

So, we may just go back to PV for two weeks.

Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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