Little change to Richard; Giri strongest cyclone ever to hit Myanmar; Megi nears China

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9:07 PM GMT on October 22, 2010

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Tropical Storm Richard continues to struggle with dry air and wind shear, despite the fact that both of these influences have waned significantly today. However, the storm is poised to begin a period of steady intensification that should take it to hurricane strength by Sunday. There have not been any hurricane hunter aircraft in Richard since late this morning, and we have to wait until 8pm tonight for the next mission to arrive. The closest buoy to Richard is NOAA buoy 42057, which is about 80 miles north of the center. Winds at the buoy were 38 mph, gusting to 47 mph, at 3:43am EDT. Recent satellite imagery shows that Richard has not changed much in organization today. Water vapor satellite loops show considerable dry air to the west of Richard, and this dry air may cause some trouble for the storm over the next few days. The waters beneath Richard are very warm, 29°C.


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of Richard.

Intensity forecast for Richard
The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear over the Western Caribbean will remain in the low range, 5 - 10 knots, Saturday through Monday. As the storm moves westwards on Saturday, it may draw close enough to coast of Honduras to hamper intensification. Assuming Richard avoids making landfall in Honduras, the light shear and warm waters that extend to great depth should allow Richard to intensify into a Category 1 hurricane by Sunday. The 5pm NHC wind probability forecast is giving Richard a 7% chance of becoming a major Category 3+ hurricane. I believe the odds are higher, near 20%. The main inhibiting factor for intensification will be interaction with the north coast of Honduras, and the possibility of the dry air to the west of Richard getting wrapped into the core of the storm while it is trying to organize. A band of very strong upper-level winds associated with the jet stream will be over the Gulf of Mexico early next week, so it is likely that if Richard crosses into the Gulf of Mexico, the storm will be unable to intensify once it passes north of the latitude of the Florida Keys.

Track forecast for Richard
The latest set of 8am EDT (12Z) model runs are similar to the previous set of runs. On Saturday, Richard will move west at an increasing rate of speed in response to a ridge of high pressure that is expected to build in over the Caribbean. This path will bring the center of Richard close to the northern coast of Honduras on Saturday and Sunday, resulting in very heavy rains of 3 - 7 inches along the coast. None of the models predict a more northwesterly path towards Cancun/Cozumel or the western tip of Cuba, and Florida is not at risk of Richard coming its way over the next five days. The 5pm EDT NHC wind probability forecast is giving the highest odds for tropical storm-force winds at Guanaja in Honduras, at 70%. Belize City is next highest, at 65%, and the odds are 31% for Cozumel. If Richard never reaches hurricane strength, it may dissipate over the Yucatan Peninsula, as predicted by the NOGAPS and ECMWF models. If Richard does intensify into a hurricane, as predicted by the GFDL model, the storm may survive crossing the Yucatan, and emerge into the Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday. Very high wind shear associated with the jet stream is expected to be over the Gulf of Mexico next week, so if Richard begins moving north or northeast towards the U.S. Gulf Coast, dissipation before landfall is to be expected.

Invest 90L
A tropical wave (Invest 90L) centered about 100 miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands off the coast of Africa has a modest amount of spin and heavy thunderstorm activity. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots, and the waters are warm enough to support tropical storm formation. NHC is giving the system a 40% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday. By Sunday, 90L's northwest movement will take the storm into a region of high wind shear of 20 - 40 knots, discouraging further development. This system is not a threat to cross the Atlantic and affect the Lesser Antilles or North America.

Cyclone Giri hits Myanmar
Powerful Cyclone Giri made landfall this morning on the coast of Myanmar (Burma) as an upper-end Category 4 storm with 155 mph winds. Giri strengthened from a 60 mph tropical storm at 8am EDT yesterday to a 155 mph Category 4 storm by 8am this morning, becoming the strongest cyclone ever to hit Myanmar. Giri's winds at landfall were 20 mph stronger than those of Cyclone Nargis of 2008, which killed over 138,000 people. However, Giri hit a portion of the Myanmar coast that is not as heavily populated or as low-lying, so this will not be another Nargis catastrophe. Nevertheless, Giri's record strength and remarkably rapid intensification rate undoubtedly surprised an unprepared population, and the potential exists for a significant death toll due to Giri's surge and winds. Also of major concern is flooding from heavy rains. Giri is expected to dump 4 - 8 inches of rain along its path inland over Myanmar over the next 24 hours.


Figure 2. Visible MODIS satellite image of Tropical Cyclone Giri taken at 2:55am EDT October 22, 2010. At the time, Giri was a Category 4 storm with 145 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Typhoon Megi unleashes torrential rains on Taiwan and China
Torrential rains from Typhoon Megi have triggered flooding and landslides in Taiwan that have left 7 people dead and 23 missing. The typhoon is also being blamed for the deaths of 36 people and $176 million in damage earlier this week in the Philippines. Megi continues its slow march towards China at 5 mph, and is expected to make landfall Saturday afternoon on the Chinese coast opposite from Taiwan. Megi is a large and powerful Category 1 typhoon with 90 mph winds, but rising wind shear has significantly weakened the storm today. Megi will continue to weaken until landfall, but will still be capable of causing considerable wind and storm surge damage even at Category 1 strength. Heavy rain will likely cause serious flooding since Megi is moving slowly and is a huge storm. I expect Megi will be a billion-dollar disaster for China, mostly due to flooding from heavy rains. The outer rain bands of Megi will continue to affect Taiwan and the coast of China near Taiwan through Saturday, as seen on China's radar composite and Taiwan radar.


Figure 3. Radar image of Typhoon Megi at 4:30pm EDT (4:30am Taiwan time) on October 22, 2010. Image credit: Taiwan Central Weather Bureau.

Next update
I'll have an update Saturday.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting sunlinepr:
Seems like models are moving Richard more to the West...



that may change. if low pressure invades the gulf he is going to be pulled north to the weakness.
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Quoting CyclonicVoyage:


NOAA P-3 actually run the recon at the surface?? There is no Air Force flight in the air at the moment.


There is no recon going out now. Was just stating next time Hurricane Hunters do go in.
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Seems like models are moving Richard more to a Westerly Track...

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04:44:00Z 16.833N 85.433W 642.3 mb
(~ 18.97 inHg) 3,879 meters
(~ 12,726 feet) 1009.9 mb
(~ 29.82 inHg)
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Quoting cchsweatherman:
Analyzing satellite imagery tonight, it appears that Tropical Storm Richard may finally be intensifying as had been expected to occur Friday. Outflow has become better established over the past 6 hours and a more symmetrical and well defined CDO (central dense overcast) has developed in conjunction with improving upper level conditions. In addition, decent inflow is occurring bringing in more moisture into the core to filter out the upper level dry air that had been impeding development. As this has occurred, some solid spiral bands have developed in the northern quadrants of the system and are curving in towards a gradually better defined circulation center. When Hurricane Hunters get into the storm, I suspect it will be a much improved and stronger system than they encountered in their last flight.


NOAA P-3 actually run the recon at the surface?? There is no Air Force flight in the air at the moment.
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the high pressure in the gulf is collapsing. the shear is dying and rising air is taking it's place.


Link
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I do need some crow. I had trouble believing that Richard would still only be a TS 4hrs ago, two days ago.
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Quoting btwntx09:
I think it was because Igor was more long-lived at major hurricane status, it was at Cat 3-4 for a longer period of time, though Megi has it beat as far as most ACE accumulated for a single 24 hour period.

Thanks.
Would Cyclone Giri in the Indian ocean be the fastest Cyclone to go from a TS to a Cat 4 Cyclone?
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Analyzing satellite imagery tonight, it appears that Tropical Storm Richard may finally be intensifying as had been expected to occur Friday. Outflow has become better established over the past 6 hours and a more symmetrical and well defined CDO (central dense overcast) has developed in conjunction with improving upper level conditions. In addition, decent inflow is occurring bringing in more moisture into the core to filter out the upper level dry air that had been impeding development. As this has occurred, some solid spiral bands have developed in the northern quadrants of the system and are curving in towards a gradually better defined circulation center. When Hurricane Hunters get into the storm, I suspect it will be a much improved and stronger system than they encountered in their last flight.
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Noaa is going to eliminate Java animations, giving support only to flash animations....
Link
Java applet loops will no longer be supported after 01/01/2010.

The java applet we use for our loops has not been updated since June, 2007 and no additional updates are expected. We can no longer provide support to users of our java loops with browser updates or other issues. That does not mean these loops will magically stop working at midnight 12/31/2009. It is our intention to keep them working and updating for the foreseeable future. We will try to give warning on this page, should the need arise to remove the java loops.

Flash loops cover the same area.
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Head scratcher for sure.
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712. 7544
Quoting SweetHomeBamaGOM:



i'm not so sure about that. look at the shortwave presentation. you can tell where the spin is occurring. i believe it is further east and north of where you think it is. i think that high cloud top you are looking at is spinning around the outer rim of the coc.


Link


yeap yep agree
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Quoting CosmicEvents:
This link of the funktop loop shows exactly where the center is, right on 15.8Link




i'm not so sure about that. look at the shortwave presentation. you can tell where the spin is occurring. i believe it is further east and north of where you think it is. i think that high cloud top you are looking at is spinning around the outer rim of the coc.


Link
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Quoting AussieStorm:
Afternoon all,
Can someone explain to me why Igor had a higher ACE that Megi? Megi was a very high Cat 5 and Igor only got to Cat 4 intensity.
btw, very stormy afternoon here in Sydney today, giving me a buzz.
Sydney RADAR


Because Igor lasted longer overall.
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I thought nose art was dead.

Current flight

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This link of the funktop loop shows exactly where the center is, right on 15.8Link

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Afternoon all,
Can someone explain to me why Igor had a higher ACE that Megi? Megi was a very high Cat 5 and Igor only got to Cat 4 intensity.
btw, very stormy afternoon here in Sydney today, giving me a buzz.
Sydney RADAR
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705. 7544
richard looking good tonight getting ready for dmax plane might find a stronger system when done imo .
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Strong intensification on the south part of the system.

Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27210




Slowly but surely makings its way on task.
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26516
notice the wind direction shift in the GOM. i think the air is beginning to rise and the suppression to the northeast of richard is ceasing.

you have to flip it back and forth -3 hrs to current to notice the change in the GOM.

Link
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700. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration

As of 08:00 AM PhST the center of the Tropical Depression was estimated based on satellite and surface data at 1,320 km east of northern Luzon (16.0N, 135.5E) with maximum sustained winds of 30 knots near the center. It is forecast to move west slowly.

This weather disturbance is still outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility and about to enter the eastern border this afternoon. The system will then be designated the name "Katring".
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699. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #24
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18
12:00 PM JST October 23 2010
=================================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression In Sea East Of The Philippines

At 3:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1004 hPa) located at 16.3N 135.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving south southwest at 7 knots

Dvorak Intensity:

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 17.4N 132.4E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
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Looking at this data from the P3 this high doesn't seem to be very big. Surface pressures are dominated by 1007/8/9 with a few 1024's scattered.
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Quoting CyclonicVoyage:


Daylight savings. That's a funny story...

You would've thought a bomb went off when they finally made the switch. I was down here in Florida by then but, my family said it was Chaos.


Had a meeting at the Tippecanoe in South Bend and was an hour late, or was it an hour early. Yes, chaotic was the word for it. Never made sense to me. Coming from La Porte was worse.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27210
it appears some symmetrical strengthening is occurring in the shortwave presentation of richard--

Link
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Quoting Grothar:


Which side are you on, the one with Daylight savings or not. Every time I come from Rolling Prairie and back, I am so confused and usually late for dinner.


Then, toss in Chicago time and well, adios, lol. Thank god for cellphones that update the current timezone otherwise I would miss every plane, I don't get it.
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Quoting BahaHurican:
Thanks KoG.... looks like it might stay north.

I guess after next week the US northern tier can start expecting snow at any point...
actually there is surpose to be a warm up starting tomorrow for us anyway highs near 18 19 c and pretty well remaining that way till end of the week with rain off and on but then the next cold blast takes us into nov as for snow any time after nov 1st by nov 15th for sure
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56141
Quoting Grothar:


Chicklit, stay away from the meds, you are confusing me.

Consider myself lucky that my meds consist of wine and the occasional arthritis relief.

speaking of daylight savings, my blackberry has already made the change.
I don't get it.
night folks.
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People and their habits up there ya know.
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Quoting Grothar:


Which side are you on, the one with Daylight savings or not. Every time I come from Rolling Prairie and back, I am so confused and usually late for dinner.


Daylight savings. That's a funny story...

You would've thought a bomb went off when they finally made the switch. I was down here in Florida by then but, my family said it was Chaos.
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Quoting CyclonicVoyage:


35 degrees tonight in my hometown of South Bend, IN.


Which side are you on, the one with Daylight savings or not. Every time I come from Rolling Prairie and back, I am so confused and usually late for dinner.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27210
Quoting BahaHurican:
Thanks KoG.... looks like it might stay north.

I guess after next week the US northern tier can start expecting snow at any point...


35 degrees tonight in my hometown of South Bend, IN.
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688. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #80
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM MEGI (T1013)
12:00 PM JST October 23 2010
=================================

SUBJECT: Category Two Typhoon In Taiwan Strait

At 3:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Megi (980 hPa) located at 23.8N 117.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 knots with gusts of 80 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north at 8 knots

Dvorak Intensity:

Storm Force Winds
=================
45 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
=================
150 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 26.7N 118.1E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
45 HRS: 27.6N 118.2E - Tropical Depression
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


Thanks KoG.... looks like it might stay north.

I guess after next week the US northern tier can start expecting snow at any point...
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22735
This is kinda interesting.

03:42:30Z 21.383N 85.300W
550.2 mb (~ 16.25 inHg)
5,130 meters (~ 16,831 feet)
1007.5 mb (~ 29.75 inHg)

03:43:30Z 21.300N 85.300W
550.0 mb (~ 16.24 inHg)
5,133 meters (~ 16,841 feet)
1026.9 mb (~ 30.32 inHg)
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Quoting Greyelf:
Well, from the look of Keeper's radar loop, I secured a storage garage for my convertible just in time. Won't be long til it's here in Nebraska either then.
snow showing up all over the place we had some northe of my location last night won't be long at all now

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56141
Quoting Chicklit:

yes. this is correct in theory; however weather has a way of doing her own thing.
thus the unpredictable reputation.
and even reputation she repudiates.


Chicklit, stay away from the meds, you are confusing me.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27210
sorry
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BTW, technically it's a Hunters moon
Link
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Quoting SweetHomeBamaGOM:
he is gaining size and convection is increasing quickly in the northwest quad. that may be signaling rising air taking hold in the GOM.

i think the forecast for intensification may have been correct just delayed for a few hours earlier this afternoon.

Link


Yeah, seems that westerly band finally abated, the intensification should be rather robust tonight. I notice in P451's image that Richard is starting to throw the tops around the horn, kinda like ying and yang if ya don't know what I am talking about. Sure sign of strengthening.
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Complete Update

Next HH almost ontask.



AOI
AOI AOI AOI

AOI AOI AOI

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26516
Well, from the look of Keeper's radar loop, I secured a storage garage for my convertible just in time. Won't be long til it's here in Nebraska either then.
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he is gaining size and convection is increasing quickly in the northwest quad. that may be signaling rising air taking hold in the GOM.

i think the forecast for intensification may have been correct just delayed for a few hours earlier this afternoon.

Link
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That's some low pressures to the N. This is data from the P-3.

Product: NOAA High Density (HDOB) Message (URNT15 KWBC)
Transmitted: 23rd day of the month at 03:34Z
Date: October 23, 2010
Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N43RF)
Mission: Non-Tasked Mission, possibly not tropical (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Identifier: Richard2
Mission: Non-Tasked Mission
Observation Number: 09

03:31:00Z 22.267N 85.133W 550.5 mb
(~ 16.26 inHg) 5,128 meters
(~ 16,824 feet)
Extrapolated
Surface Pressure 1007.8 mb
(~ 29.76 inHg)
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Quoting BahaHurican:
Hope it's not snowing between boston and Plymouth.... :o(


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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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