Little change to Richard; Giri strongest cyclone ever to hit Myanmar; Megi nears China

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9:07 PM GMT on October 22, 2010

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Tropical Storm Richard continues to struggle with dry air and wind shear, despite the fact that both of these influences have waned significantly today. However, the storm is poised to begin a period of steady intensification that should take it to hurricane strength by Sunday. There have not been any hurricane hunter aircraft in Richard since late this morning, and we have to wait until 8pm tonight for the next mission to arrive. The closest buoy to Richard is NOAA buoy 42057, which is about 80 miles north of the center. Winds at the buoy were 38 mph, gusting to 47 mph, at 3:43am EDT. Recent satellite imagery shows that Richard has not changed much in organization today. Water vapor satellite loops show considerable dry air to the west of Richard, and this dry air may cause some trouble for the storm over the next few days. The waters beneath Richard are very warm, 29°C.


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of Richard.

Intensity forecast for Richard
The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear over the Western Caribbean will remain in the low range, 5 - 10 knots, Saturday through Monday. As the storm moves westwards on Saturday, it may draw close enough to coast of Honduras to hamper intensification. Assuming Richard avoids making landfall in Honduras, the light shear and warm waters that extend to great depth should allow Richard to intensify into a Category 1 hurricane by Sunday. The 5pm NHC wind probability forecast is giving Richard a 7% chance of becoming a major Category 3+ hurricane. I believe the odds are higher, near 20%. The main inhibiting factor for intensification will be interaction with the north coast of Honduras, and the possibility of the dry air to the west of Richard getting wrapped into the core of the storm while it is trying to organize. A band of very strong upper-level winds associated with the jet stream will be over the Gulf of Mexico early next week, so it is likely that if Richard crosses into the Gulf of Mexico, the storm will be unable to intensify once it passes north of the latitude of the Florida Keys.

Track forecast for Richard
The latest set of 8am EDT (12Z) model runs are similar to the previous set of runs. On Saturday, Richard will move west at an increasing rate of speed in response to a ridge of high pressure that is expected to build in over the Caribbean. This path will bring the center of Richard close to the northern coast of Honduras on Saturday and Sunday, resulting in very heavy rains of 3 - 7 inches along the coast. None of the models predict a more northwesterly path towards Cancun/Cozumel or the western tip of Cuba, and Florida is not at risk of Richard coming its way over the next five days. The 5pm EDT NHC wind probability forecast is giving the highest odds for tropical storm-force winds at Guanaja in Honduras, at 70%. Belize City is next highest, at 65%, and the odds are 31% for Cozumel. If Richard never reaches hurricane strength, it may dissipate over the Yucatan Peninsula, as predicted by the NOGAPS and ECMWF models. If Richard does intensify into a hurricane, as predicted by the GFDL model, the storm may survive crossing the Yucatan, and emerge into the Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday. Very high wind shear associated with the jet stream is expected to be over the Gulf of Mexico next week, so if Richard begins moving north or northeast towards the U.S. Gulf Coast, dissipation before landfall is to be expected.

Invest 90L
A tropical wave (Invest 90L) centered about 100 miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands off the coast of Africa has a modest amount of spin and heavy thunderstorm activity. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots, and the waters are warm enough to support tropical storm formation. NHC is giving the system a 40% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday. By Sunday, 90L's northwest movement will take the storm into a region of high wind shear of 20 - 40 knots, discouraging further development. This system is not a threat to cross the Atlantic and affect the Lesser Antilles or North America.

Cyclone Giri hits Myanmar
Powerful Cyclone Giri made landfall this morning on the coast of Myanmar (Burma) as an upper-end Category 4 storm with 155 mph winds. Giri strengthened from a 60 mph tropical storm at 8am EDT yesterday to a 155 mph Category 4 storm by 8am this morning, becoming the strongest cyclone ever to hit Myanmar. Giri's winds at landfall were 20 mph stronger than those of Cyclone Nargis of 2008, which killed over 138,000 people. However, Giri hit a portion of the Myanmar coast that is not as heavily populated or as low-lying, so this will not be another Nargis catastrophe. Nevertheless, Giri's record strength and remarkably rapid intensification rate undoubtedly surprised an unprepared population, and the potential exists for a significant death toll due to Giri's surge and winds. Also of major concern is flooding from heavy rains. Giri is expected to dump 4 - 8 inches of rain along its path inland over Myanmar over the next 24 hours.


Figure 2. Visible MODIS satellite image of Tropical Cyclone Giri taken at 2:55am EDT October 22, 2010. At the time, Giri was a Category 4 storm with 145 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Typhoon Megi unleashes torrential rains on Taiwan and China
Torrential rains from Typhoon Megi have triggered flooding and landslides in Taiwan that have left 7 people dead and 23 missing. The typhoon is also being blamed for the deaths of 36 people and $176 million in damage earlier this week in the Philippines. Megi continues its slow march towards China at 5 mph, and is expected to make landfall Saturday afternoon on the Chinese coast opposite from Taiwan. Megi is a large and powerful Category 1 typhoon with 90 mph winds, but rising wind shear has significantly weakened the storm today. Megi will continue to weaken until landfall, but will still be capable of causing considerable wind and storm surge damage even at Category 1 strength. Heavy rain will likely cause serious flooding since Megi is moving slowly and is a huge storm. I expect Megi will be a billion-dollar disaster for China, mostly due to flooding from heavy rains. The outer rain bands of Megi will continue to affect Taiwan and the coast of China near Taiwan through Saturday, as seen on China's radar composite and Taiwan radar.


Figure 3. Radar image of Typhoon Megi at 4:30pm EDT (4:30am Taiwan time) on October 22, 2010. Image credit: Taiwan Central Weather Bureau.

Next update
I'll have an update Saturday.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting reedzone:
This is a very impressive look for only a 45 mph. storm.




Reedzone, I guess it never made it to a TD as fast as you had thought and According to the TPC the dry air has hindered development significantly all along. Although you had mentioned several times the dry air would not be an issue for richard. Likewise the fun never really began, still kinda waiting for it to get "interesting" (for a second time now) and who knows maybe richard can reach that 50 - 60 mph...point forecasted a couple of days ago which you reminded us of yesterday that you had predicted it 2 hours before the 11pm discussion on Thursday night. You think it may happen sometime today??
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Quoting ParanoidAndroid:
Whatever happens, I just hope that whatever's left of Richard, even if its just tropical moisture, makes its way to those parts of Florida that need the rain.


Appreciate that PA. Not looking like it's going to happen though. Unfortunately, this may have been our last chance. With a strong La Nina firmly in place, we can expect and early onset of our dry season, above normal temps and much below normal precipitation.
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822. IKE
Quoting tkeith:
Ike I appreciate the help with the Rangers game last nite. I still need you to work your magic on the Razorbacks today and the Saints tommorrow though...lol.

I still cant see this storm amounting to much if it does get in the Gulf. But stranger things have happened....


I'll see what I can do for you.

Models are trending further south on the systems path. I doubt it ever makes it out of central America.

May be strengthening some this morning. Looks to be moving almost due west and may parallel the coast until it's final landfall.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting ParanoidAndroid:
A double rainbow!

What does it mean?

;)


Some leftover part of Rich is comming to fla? or the Jags might win another game this year? No wait, that would be a blue moon...
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AIR FORCE PLANE FINDS THAT RICHARD HAS REFORMED TO THE EAST...
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A double rainbow!

What does it mean?

;)
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Quoting pottery:
Last night late, I was out Howling at the Full Moon.
Just in time to see a perfect Halo around it, and then a plane passed through, leaving a perfect vapour-trail through the Halo.

It was a Definite Sign. A Portent, even.
I just cant figure out the meaning as yet....

Any ideas?


We need more rain forrest!?
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Whatever happens, I just hope that whatever's left of Richard, even if its just tropical moisture, makes its way to those parts of Florida that need the rain.
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Ike I appreciate the help with the Rangers game last nite. I still need you to work your magic on the Razorbacks today and the Saints tommorrow though...lol.

I still cant see this storm amounting to much if it does get in the Gulf. But stranger things have happened....
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Quoting Guysgal:


Duh!

Yeah, I guess not!
Must be something to do with Events Out Of Our Hands.

The Gods move in Mysterious ways, their Wonders to perform.
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Quoting IKE:
...AIR FORCE PLANE FINDS THAT RICHARD HAS REFORMED TO THE EAST...
8:00 AM EDT Sat Oct 23
Location: 15.8°N 83.0°W
Max sustained: 45 mph
Moving: W at 4 mph
Min pressure: 1004 mb


That's further east? Not by much.
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This is a very impressive look for only a 45 mph. storm.


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812. IKE
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Last night late, I was out Howling at the Full Moon.
Just in time to see a perfect Halo around it, and then a plane passed through, leaving a perfect vapour-trail through the Halo.

It was a Definite Sign. A Portent, even.
I just cant figure out the meaning as yet....

Any ideas?
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


No? The GFS did absolutely terrible with this system, matter of fact it had it running into Central America ASAP.


Actually, the GFS has had Richard pegged since the 00Z run on the 20th. Go HERE, go back to 00z on the 20th and drop down to 850vort and go to town.
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Quoting pottery:
Good Morning.
A news item at BBC website on the conditions in the Upper Amazon basin.
The Amazon River is at record low levels, with several tributaries dry and river navigation to towns and villages not possible.
Emergency supplies are being delivered by air.

I wonder if that has anything to do with cutting down the forest?


Duh!
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808. IKE
...AIR FORCE PLANE FINDS THAT RICHARD HAS REFORMED TO THE EAST...
8:00 AM EDT Sat Oct 23
Location: 15.8°N 83.0°W
Max sustained: 45 mph
Moving: W at 4 mph
Min pressure: 1004 mb
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting 954FtLCane:

Oh of course not, in this country you would be called a liberal for thinking of such thoughts (liberal=bad juju). I can see the rain forest from my house.

LOL.
You better put a fence around it, with razor wire and stuff on top.
We gonna need that rain forest of yours pretty soon, to make more cattle feed.
Burgers and steak rule....
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805. IKE
Quoting InTheCone:


Morning IKE,

Sure hope the blog lynch mob stays away! I have never seen anything like what went on yesterday, really sad. You've been here for years and I remember when your name sake was running amok that you did a nice job with posting the realistic(although horrible) info. I guess people just want these storms to hit the US.

Anyway, I do not think poor old Richard is doing too much at the moment and he may be on land, or to near it to do much more.



I seen the sun comin' up at the funeral at dawn
The long broken arm of human law
Now it always seemed such a waste
She always had a pretty face
So I wondered how she hung around this place.....Link
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting IKE:
Lowest pressure, so far, on recon...1009.5 mb
(~ 29.81 inHg)


Morning IKE,

Sure hope the blog lynch mob stays away! I have never seen anything like what went on yesterday, really sad. You've been here for years and I remember when your name sake was running amok that you did a nice job with posting the realistic(although horrible) info. I guess people just want these storms to hit the US.

Anyway, I do not think poor old Richard is doing too much at the moment and he may be on land, or to near it to do much more.
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803. IKE
Lowest pressure, so far, on recon...1009.5 mb
(~ 29.81 inHg)
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting robert88:
Well the GFS nailed this one.


No? The GFS did absolutely terrible with this system, matter of fact it had it running into Central America ASAP.
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Quoting pottery:
Good Morning.
A news item at BBC website on the conditions in the Upper Amazon basin.
The Amazon River is at record low levels, with several tributaries dry and river navigation to towns and villages not possible.
Emergency supplies are being delivered by air.

I wonder if that has anything to do with cutting down the forest?

Oh of course not, in this country you would be called a liberal for thinking of such thoughts (liberal=bad juju). I can see the rain forest from my house.
Member Since: September 30, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 108
Well the GFS nailed this one.
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I see Richard is still hanging in there

Key West Airport
Lat: 24.55 Lon: -81.75 Elev: 4
Last Update on Oct 23, 6:53 am EDT

Light Rain

76 °F
(24 °C)
Humidity: 94 %
Wind Speed: NE 12 G 20 MPH
Barometer: 30.03" (1016.7 mb)
Dewpoint: 74 °F (23 °C)
Heat Index: 76 °F (24 °C)
Visibility: 10.00 mi.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good Morning.
A news item at BBC website on the conditions in the Upper Amazon basin.
The Amazon River is at record low levels, with several tributaries dry and river navigation to towns and villages not possible.
Emergency supplies are being delivered by air.

I wonder if that has anything to do with cutting down the forest?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: September 30, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 108
Just in case there's anyone awake enough to care, the HH's are almost there......


Product: Air Force Tropical RECCO Message (URNT11 KNHC)
Transmitted: 23rd day of the month at 11:05Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 303)
Storm Number: 19
Storm Name: Richard (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 7
Observation Number: 07

Mandatory Data...

Observation Time: Saturday, 10:58Z
Radar Capability: Yes
Aircraft Altitude: Below 10,000 meters
Coordinates: 17.1N 84.9W
Location: 219 miles (352 km) to the E (97°) from Belize City, Belize.
Turbulence: None
Conditions Along Flight Route: In the clear
Pressure Altitude: 400 meters
Flight Level Wind: From 70° at 15 knots (From the ENE at ~ 17.2 mph)
- The above is a spot wind.
- Winds were obtained using doppler radar or inertial systems.
Flight Level Temperature: 23°C
Flight Level Dew Point: 20°C
Weather (within 30 nautical miles): Thunderstorm(s)
Mean Sea Level Pressure (MSLP): 1012 mb (extrapolated)

Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...

Surface Wind Speed (likely by SFMR): 17 knots (~ 19.6mph)
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Member Since: September 30, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 108

getting close to sunlight, aren't we all excited!!! woot! woot!
Member Since: September 30, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 108

not impressive at all. Thank god the season is over for the CONUS, or so it seems. Just a few more weeks and it will be over for our island friends. (I really feel it's over for them as well)
Member Since: September 30, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 108
virtual wallet is a good idea dont use the same computer for your wallet (bank) as your email the bad guys get into the computer through the mail the tropical system is still there
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Quoting doubtit:
Do you just put lipstick on your right hand and call it pretty lady or do you use eyeliner as well?????

OMG i know its probably 5 hours late but in reading all these post yours made me roll..... rotflmaofl... thanks! :-)
Member Since: September 30, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 108
Quoting kmanhurricaneman:
i understand what you are saying , but sat obs say diferent

OMG, am I the first post in over 40 minutes....test test..

Member Since: September 30, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 108
i understand what you are saying , but sat obs say diferent
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Quoting kmanhurricaneman:
looks like richard starting that north movement


Starting "that".......no north movement is expected and I dont see it xcept for cloud movement north of center (gives appearance of some N component. The center is not for from coast...and still appears to be moving just N of west. Any north movement will be very limited with the strong ridge over gulf.
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000
WTNT44 KNHC 230856
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM RICHARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192010
500 AM EDT SAT OCT 23 2010

THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH RICHARD REMAINS DISTORTED
WITH AN ELONGATED AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION EXTENDING FROM THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER NORTHEASTWARD. DATA FROM A NOAA RESEARCH MISSION
AND SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUPPORT MAINTAINING RICHARD AS A
40-KT TROPICAL STORM FOR THIS ADVISORY.

THE CENTER OF RICHARD HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO LOCATE IN INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THERE HAVE BEEN MIXED SIGNALS FROM THE
AIRCRAFT DATA...WITH DROPSONDE OBSERVATIONS SUGGESTING THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER WAS LOCATED WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE
FLIGHT-LEVEL CENTER AT ABOUT 12000 FT. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN
THE CENTER LOCATION...THE INITIAL MOTION OF 270/7 IS OF LOW
CONFIDENCE. THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED. A
WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. DURING THAT
TIME...RICHARD IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF
HONDURAS...HOWEVER...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE CENTER WILL MOVE
INLAND. AFTER 48 HOURS...THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS GENERALLY SHIFTED
SOUTHWARD AND MANY OF THE MODELS DISSIPATE RICHARD BEFORE IT ENTERS
THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN
ADJUSTED TO THE LEFT...AND FUTURE FORECASTS MAY NEED TO BE MOVED IN
THAT DIRECTION.

THE TROPICAL STORM HAS BEEN BATTLING SHEAR AND DRY AIR DURING THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...WHICH HAS PREVENTED THE CYCLONE FROM
STRENGTHENING. ALTHOUGH THE GLOBAL MODELS AND SHIPS GUIDANCE SHOW
THESE PARAMETERS BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...POSSIBLE LAND INTERACTION WITH HONDURAS
COULD BE AN INHIBITING FACTOR. THEREFORE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
HAS ONCE AGAIN BEEN ADJUSTED DOWNWARD...AND IS NOW ABOVE ALL OF THE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE.

IF THE CENTER REMAINS OFFSHORE OF HONDURAS...WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TODAY.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 23/0900Z 15.8N 83.2W 40 KT
12HR VT 23/1800Z 16.0N 84.3W 45 KT
24HR VT 24/0600Z 16.3N 85.9W 50 KT
36HR VT 24/1800Z 16.6N 87.7W 60 KT
48HR VT 25/0600Z 17.0N 89.1W 50 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 26/0600Z 17.8N 91.6W 30 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 27/0600Z 19.5N 93.0W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120HR VT 28/0600Z 21.0N 94.0W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BROWN

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damn! i hate beening right.
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looks like richard starting that north movement
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your not alone
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783. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #19
DEPRESSION, FORMER CYCLONIC STORM GIRI (BOB04-2010)
11:30 AM IST October 23 2010
=============================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, The cyclonic storm over Myanmar moved further northeastward and weakened into a Depression. Depression, Former Cyclonic Storm Giri lays near 22.0N 95.5E, or about 40 kms east of Monywa and 60 kms west of Mandalay.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 20 knots with gusts of 30 knots. Intense convection is seen over Myanmar to the south of the system. Scattered moderate to intense convection is seen over east central and north Bay of Bengal.

The current environmental conditions and numerical weather prediction models suggest that the system would move further northeastward and weaken into a low pressure area during the next 6 hours.
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782. JLPR2
ah, the silence of 4am XD
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test
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TropicalStormRichard's heading held steady at dueWest
TS.Richard's average speed moving between its last 2 reported positions increased to ~4.3mph(~7km/h) from its previous moving speed of ~2.3mph(~3.8km/h)
TropicalStormRichard
22Oct 06amGMT - 15.8n80.4w - 40mph(~64.4km/h) - 1006mb - NHC.Adv.#5A
22Oct 09amGMT - 16.0n80.3w - 40mph(~64.4km/h) - 1005mb - NHC.Adv.#6
22Oct 12pmGMT - 15.9n80.7w - 40mph(~64.4km/h) - 1006mb - NHC.Adv.#6A
22Oct 03pmGMT - 15.8n81.1w - 40mph(~64.4km/h) - 1006mb - NHC.Adv.#7
22Oct 06pmGMT - 15.8n81.3w - 40mph(~64.4km/h) - 1006mb - NHC.Adv.#7A
22Oct 09pmGMT - 16.2n81.7w - 45mph(~72.4km/h) - 1005mb - NHC.Adv.#8
23Oct 12amGMT - 15.8n82.3w - 45mph(~72.4km/h) - 1007mb - NHC.Adv.#8A
23Oct 03amGMT - 15.8n82.4w - 45mph(~72.4km/h) - 1007mb - NHC.Adv.#9
23Oct 06amGMT - 15.8n82.6w - 45mph(~72.4km/h) - 1007mb - NHC.Adv.#9A

Copy&paste 15.8n80.4w, 16.0n80.3w, 15.9n80.7w, 15.8n81.1w, 15.8n81.3w-16.2n81.7w, 16.2n81.7w-15.8n82.3w, 15.8n82.3w-15.8n82.4w, 15.8n82.4w-15.8n82.6w, pnd, 15.8n82.6w-15.793n84.29w into the GreatCircleMapper for a look at the headings and distance travelled over the last 12^hours.

.Using straightline projection upon the speed&heading averaged
over the 3hours spanning the last two reported positions:
~25hours from now to BarraPatuca,Honduras

^ The westernmost line-segment is the straightline projection
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Way past my bedtime... you guys have fun... last update.



Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
778. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #18
CYCLONIC STORM GIRI (BOB04-2010)
8:30 AM IST October 23 2010
=============================================

At 3:00 AM UTC, Cyclonic Storm Giri over Myanmar moved northeastward and lays centered near 21.5N 95.0E, or about 70 kms south southwest of Monywa, Myanmar.

Intense to very intense convection is seen over Myanmar. Scattered moderate to intense convection is seen over east central and north Bay of Bengal.

The current environmental conditions and numerical weather prediction models suggest that the system would move further northeastward and weaken during the next 12 hours
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Off to bed.

For anyone that has not visited Vancouver and BC in general, it is beautiful country. Keep it in mind, you will not be disappointed.
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I just don't get Richard. Very well vented, yet can't do anything.

I can only think MJO as the reason.
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Quoting KoritheMan:
...RICHARD APPROACHING THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF HONDURAS...


NS
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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